SOL Alternative Christmas Message

[MAXIMUS POWERS]

UK Channel 4 have got President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran to deliver their alternative Christmas message, so I will deliver the SOL christmas message!

 

To those from Mainland Europe, the colonies (US and the Commonwealth, including Canada) or the third world - a Christmas message is delievered by the Monarch to the people at Christmas.

 

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I am delighted to be here today in the presence of a number of dedicated Somali and Somali speaking figures. My christmas message will concentrate on the stragetic geo-political consequences of the invasion of Somalia. When discussing and analysing the politics of the Horn of Africa, there is a tendency to ignore the strategic dimension of conflicts and to dwell on the immediate and direct aspects. In assessing the strategic impact of the invasion of Somalia, I attempt to look at the possible motivations that encouraged Addis Ababa to flex its military muscles and invade Somalia. Later, I shall shed some light on some of the strategic impacts the invasion could have on the region.

 

On the 26th of December 2006 Ethiopian troops, supported by extensive air force coverage crossed the borders to Mogadishu and marched rapidly through major Somali towns and ultimately took control of the capital in only seven days. From the face of it, the removal of the Union of Islamic Courts from control of Mogadishu achieved the declared Ethiopian motivation behind the invasion, but the continued presence of the Ethiopian forces raises questions as to the real motivations behind the invasion. Some analysts consider the move to be a territorial aggrandisement and a search to secure access to the 3000km of Somali coast, others see it as a pre-emptive strike to prevent the UIC from establishing an Islamic state in Somalia or becoming a platform for Al Qaida-related activities. In the same vein, others assert that it’s a proxy war to counter the Eritrean enemy. Which ever view you take on this conflict, from a strategic point of view; all elements seem to bare part of the truth. There is an important point I would like to mention right from start: unlike most other African countries, Ethiopian regional policy has been remarkably consistent. Ethiopia has been capable of articulating, pursing, and disseminating a coherent security and foreign policy strategy in the Horn of Africa.

 

Therefore, there three main possible determinants of the Ethiopian regional policy – and towards Somalia in particular, and can be summarised as follows:

 

Firstly, Boundary problems, which refer to issues of integrity of the Ethiopian borders. Linked to this, the idea of Greater Somalia which most Somali politicians hold dear to their hearts. Now, the Ethiopian policy towards this is clear: Ethiopia will not allow for the annexation of *******ia, Djibouti or Northern Kenya provinces by Somalia. History tells us this and the future is likely to confirm it.Thirdly is Islamic fundamentalism, modern Ethiopia had grown remarkably resistant to political Islam. Sudan's attempted to establish an Islamic state and support regional Islamic minorities has raised the Ethiopian alarms. Any attempts by the UIC to establish another Islamic state in the Ethiopian vulnerable southern-eastern borders would be regarded as a direct security threat by the Ethiopian security policy makers.

 

To this end, the picture is not yet complete without analysing the American factor in the horn. I hold the view that the US turned serious attention to the horn following the 9/11 atrocities solely for the issue of terrorism. In this mist, Ethiopia appeared as the key ally to the US and was against extremism in the region, and thus the two counties appeared to be in hot bed together. Some analysts suggest that the US gave the green light to the Ethiopian invasion and provided support throughout the military campaign against the Islamists.

 

However, there are signs of change in U.S policy towards Ethiopia. The democrats have a tendency of advocating human rights agenda such as the release of political prisoners, press freedoms, ensuring the independence of the judiciary and so forth. Such pressure pose the likely results of reducing peacekeeping assistance, counter-terrorism assistance, and international military assistance to Ethiopia which forms most of the defence budget of Ethiopia. One needs not to underestimate the financial strength of the Ethiopian Diaspora in the US and elsewhere and their lobbying powers. Also, the U.S seems to favour a more balanced and even-handed approach to the Ethiopian-Eritrean border dispute, despite, the overt threats to Eritrea in the list of countries as sponsors of terror. So, an out right support to Ethiopia against Eritrea is unlikely.

 

There are interesting suggestions that the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia has reduced the credibility of the statement that the Ethiopian army is invincible. The invasion placed a military and financial strain on Addis Ababa.The war also opened another front for the Ethiopians in addition to the northern front with Eritrea. It has also revealed Ethiopia’s failure to engage in an a high-intensity guerrilla combat, a signal that can be picked up by the *******ian fighters who recently increased the volume of their activities. It has also revealed that a poverty-stricken Ethiopian economy was unable to hold to the challenge of financing and marinating a war against a country with no regular army.

 

So from this angle, if this was the trap Isias afwarki of Eritrea wanted to place the Ethiopians in; It seems to be working. In terms of other effects of the presence of the troops in Somalia: in the short term, the presence of a large number of troops would lead to food shortages and cause disruption to food distribution around the country especially as Somalia witnesses the worst drought in 13 years. Environmental damage is also another factor which could cause further conflicts and lead to waves of migration. In the mid term, displacement of people is likely to affect the demographics and lead to further humanitarian crises and delay peace efforts especially as donor countries had been reluctant to fulfil their obligation and aid promises.

 

The horn of Africa might have been a blind spot of the world, but the scramble for resources will soon bring it to the forefront. The strategic fabric in the Horn of Africa is changing; there are new economic and military realities in the Horn that could mean Ethiopia'is no longer the hegemony we always thought it is. Oil has remarkably made some countries in East Africa potential economic tigers. Somalia needs to approach these new players, regard them as examples and make reasonable arrangements with them.

 

Now, I return to the main point I opened my message with: why was Ethiopia able to do what it’s been doing in the region for a long time? Simply because the Ethiopians turned serious attention to strategic planning, something every serious nation has always done! Somalia needs to establish a system of governance, secure itself, and make use of its resources, Somalis need to regard this situation as a wake up and engage in stragetic thinking. We need to abandon the ignorant system of Qabil and clan based-politics and focus on building a nation-state. If we want to really unite the 5 parts of the star in the Somali flag, we need to think stragetically and not along clan lines.

 

There are leaders and followers in this world, without a nation-state, a sovereign and violable state, we are forced to be followers.

 

Thank you very much! Thank you and Merry Christmas!

 

 

MARX Mohammed

 

Leader of The United Democratic Party

[Sir-Qalbi-Adeyg]

Christmas Message? Nothing but utter nonsense there. And what's with the picture of the racist churchil on your avatar? No self respecting african man would adore the drunkard racist Churchill.

[fellow]

you are on in Qalbi walaahi that man destroyed many african life

[MZanzi]

soo dhacyeeey!!!

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

Hadduu soo dhacana xaa dhacaayo? Buq maaka yeeri doonto, mise baq or qash?

[Jacaylbaro]

I don't think it is an alternative message ,,,,

[rudy-Diiriye]

Originally posted by Afr0 GirL:

soo dhacyeeey!!!

sii guglaaye!! loool... i dont think ifi gal knows wat i am talking about!! my bad home-gal.

 

Well...here is the thing...yeah the avatar sucks!

But u know what they say...2nd time is better than 1st time....so give our brotha the chance.

 

marci..good job, i like your new msg..its right on time! let us do...i am with your there! i wanna join this party 4 real...sign me in!!

[MAXIMUS POWERS]

Originally posted by Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar:

Hadduu soo dhacana xaa dhacaayo? Buq maaka yeeri doonto, mise baq or qash?

What exactly does this have to do with my alternative christmas message. What are you trying to achieve by somehow making fun of my message. Let me guess you couldnt be bothered to read so you thought lets mock him! This is the type of attitude that Somalia doesnt need. If you cant engage with my ideas please dont bother commenting. The same goes for Afrogal and the two guys who commented on my avatar.

 

Rudy, my dear friend, the time has come for us to put our difference aside and work together. The UDP needs people with a the right attitude.

[Emperor]

^You have ideas? Whatever relavant ideas you had which was worth reading is killed by your title... Chritmas Message? I haven't seen you post your ideas on the Eid day, or passing Eid Message, perhaps all this was supposed to be a joke, this is not the right section.

 

PS:What is UDP? never mind, I couldn't bother to read.

[MAXIMUS POWERS]

Are you accusing me of being a non-believer? I am just making use of the significance of the christmas message! If there is anything like a Eid message, I would be the first to do an alternative message! Anyways whats wrong with christmas, arent we in a Christain country. You people are never content! these people have given you a refuge, homes and an education etc ! the absolute least you can do is celebrate christmas!

 

The UDP is a political party that seeks to bring peace and prosperity to Somalia.

[MZanzi]

Just another thing to argue about

[Aaliyyah]

lol@ the least you can do is celebrate Christmas.........

 

oh well live your life however you see fit

[Kool_Kat]

Originally posted by Emperor:

^You have ideas? Whatever relavant ideas you had which was worth reading is killed by your title... Chritmas Message?

I haven't seen you post your ideas on the Eid day, or passing Eid Message,

perhaps all this was supposed to be a joke, this is not the right section.

Marax was still banned from SOL waagaas dee...I think the ban was lifted cuz it is Christmas, the most joyous season...

 

these people have given you a refuge, homes and an education etc ! the absolute least you can do is celebrate christmas!

In honour of those mentioned above, I am celebrating Christmas this year...I bought a big ol'Christmas tree with the walfare money I receive from this government, put it in the middle of my livingroom - which by the is a government housing, got gifts from the local toy drive, and drinking eggnogs that I picked up from the Foodbank...It is the most wonderful time of the year... :cool:

[Aaliyyah]

looooooool and you too...Lord have mercy!!

 

am speechless

[Kool_Kat]

Why speechless? Wanna come over and have some eggnogs?