"All roads lead to Finfinne." Jaal Marroo

[Duufaan]

 

Now I do understand where we are going?

[Duufaan]

Back to topic

A this point  I do support Cagjar. He is in a liking  ship and there is nothing he can do, other than to stay loyal to his master. A majority of his tribal men are more worry about  Kismaanyo and  hoping a speeded Abiya departure. But the fact is the changes in Ethiopia started long time ago when the same groups  helped the  removal of Melazawi regime. Maybe the same tactics will be successful again but Ethiopia will never be same. I see the refugee coming and overwhelm Somalia and not only other ethnic groups but people from Somalis region. Than we will see if garoowe and Hargeysa welcome them.

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

Where is Afwerki and why is he watching this?

[Duufaan]

They tried to engineer changes in Sudan and after two years things are going different direction. Engineering changes in Ethiopia will end up same result. It will never be 1991. They are  not even willing to spend a lot of money to smooth things.

[galbeedi]

Duufaan,

all above mentioned statements from Micheal Rubin and company are pure information warfare. The TPLF are now in one pocket or narrow corridor from southern Tigray to Amhara region. Even western Tigray(Humera) is still in the hands or Amhara and Eritrean forces manning the Sudan border. Western Amhara, Gojjam and Gondar are still in Amhara hands. I do believe that despite the setbacks, this war will rage for a long time and might even spread across Ethiopia.

Abiy Ahmed had met the Oromo AbaGadda which is equivalent of Somali Suldans and Ugasses. He told them that it is easy for him to disappear, but if the TPLF comes the Oromo will face internal chaos and oppression for another 100 years. The people of northern Shawa just north of Addis have been armed to the teeth. If Abiy keeps arming the citizens, there will not be Ethiopia after him.

Yet, according to insiders, the ruling class in Addis worries more about the Oromo joining the opposition than the TPLF. Abiy is painted by many Oromo as Amhara clone claiming to be Oromo. Yesterday I went one of my local bakeries and the two Oromo ladies working there were somewhat happy about the current events. They are from Arsi area and rooting for the demise of Abiy.

Unverified reports claim that Abiy has refused to meet Jeffery Feltman, the US envoy for the horn. If this report is true, it is do or die for Abiy. Furthermore, where are the Turks? They saved Libya almost overrun by the despot Khalifa Hifter a year and half ago. Hifter Russian mercenaries and other were 7 kilometer from down town Tripoli, yet the careful intelligence and drone operations of the Turks reversed to keep the UN recognized government. If Erdogan helps Abiy, he is helping an elected premier of Ethiopia challenged by Tigray despots aided by American neocons who keep destabilizing the horn for the last 30 years.

Many Ethiopian regions including Sidamo, Beni Shangul, Somalis and others are rooting the demise of the old empire. They know deep down even if Ethiopia survives this war, it will not be able to oppress or control these nationes anymore.

 

 

 

 

[galbeedi]

Also, the western media is depicting the TPLF like a popular uprising of citizens trying to overthrow a dictator which is far from the truth.. Putting a siege to the national capital might have worked in the eighties,  but now, every ethnic group has its own capital, flag and special forces. It is how Meles designed both Somalia and Ethiopia before he went six feet under.

[maakhiri1]

I heard all flights ✈ ✈ ✈  out of Addis, fully booked, chaos everywhere 

[galbeedi]

It is true all foreign community members and dual citizens are leaving in droves thanks to the media saying the TPLF is on the verge of taking over the capital. I had talked to a family member this morning in Addis and he said life is normal in the city except businesses are closing early evening.

Things will be clear within the next seven or ten days.

[Che -Guevara]

Galbeedi,

I don't know where you were the day bullets started flying in Xamar. Life was normal for.most of us. In fact, I was in school when the skirmishes started in surbs of Suuqa Xoolaha, Huriwaa and Yaaqshiid. 

We only realized something is wrong when Government kids began being taken out of the class. and escorted in Landcruisers.

We had to walk home and darkness was setting in literally and figuratively.

Unless there's miracle, Ethiopia is done. It's never good idea to arm the public in internal struggles.  If Abiy is restoring to this, he's done for.

[Duufaan]

Che

Ethiopians are not similar to Somalis. Even Tigray everything is working. There is no looting taking place. In fact with all the propaganda few civilian was killed for all the parties. Even OLA just replaced leaders of the villages they captured if needed. There is long way to go before we see the moment of changes in ethiopia.

Galbeedi

Although situation is not good for Abiya. He is not done and his last move was very clever. This is a western campaign to overthrow Abiya rather the  strength of TPLF and other resistant. But I also agree Abiya needs foreign support and only Turkey can help but Turkey has their lira problem and do not want to make their situation worst. There are also rumors that turkey started providing Abiya a small military support. The Oromo is most problematic for Abiya but West is with TPLF. This may give Abiya a second chance

 

[Duufaan]

Sound familiar in Somalia satiation. Somali State Resistance= Ahmed Madoobe

[Khadafi]

Comparing ethnic politics to the clan politics of Somalia is not a good example duudfan. Remember that it was a united oromo front with pre-planned qeero youth that made ethiopias post meles TPLF rigid and being toppled. The TPLF, the hyeanas were thinking that if they choose Cabey Amxaaro /Abey Ahmed  no blodshed will occur and buisness will be as usall. When Abey came to power he saw the dire economical coffins of the state. They had been looted by tigrayans and Ethiopia could not even pay the intrest on the loans  that Meles and post Meles had taken.

Why do you think Abey Ahmed sold Ethiopias mobile network and started a campaign to sell of state assets. The saaxirka of Eritrea who even managed to manipulate Farmaajo, Cafwerki had a deep seated grudge against the TPLF and convinced that with combined eritrean troops they would finish of the TPLF 4-5 months. While Cafwerkis eritrean troops indeed secured victory and fine brandy was the daily for cafwerki he met up with the american embassy and they told him that they would reinstate the sanctions and this time it would be harsh iran like sanctions. Cafwerki who has no cash and dollars with drew. The tplf rebels managed in 4 months to take tigray and are able to cut the supply route from jabuuti,

 We are talking about diffirent people who have nothing, nada in common. Even the oromos,  those who originate from haraghe, bale have more in common with Somalis then the agroculture coptic orthodox oromos.   Che is correct that dissmissing the TPLF and  OLF is overstating the national army of Ethiopia. It was routed and compleyely crushed. Why would oromo, cafar, somali kilil forces die for the amhara state,   

Galbeedi, oromada sida hore maahan, Just che said, the war in Xamar did not start in the blue,l During the last days of Barre he only controlled Mogadishul If Abey would have used the oromo nationlism He could have one the heart of the oromos. But saying in nationak TV -"Ethiopia tikdem" a chant from tjhe  Mengistu amhara-centric rule only cemented the vuew that  Abey qikidtuuz< w

 

 

 

[Duufaan]

Khadafi

The issue is not the mistakes Abiya did, is not Ethiopia, Amhara, Oromo and TPLF. It is all about geopolitics and this geopolitical game is design for all the east African regions. it is all about what to come and the probability if Abiya can survive this. It is now different boll game. 

There are indeed some similarities what happened Xamar in 1991 and what is going on Ethiopia today. In1990 all the financial support going to Somalia was stopped. Arabs was told not provide Siyad Barre any financial support. Somali was relied on the support they got from Saudi Arabia, UAE and United states and all was stopped. There were no hard currency coming moqdisho anymore. The rest is history. Same thing is happening in Ethiopia. I do not think Blinken is right person for this. He probably think east Africa is extension of the middle east.

The Ethiopians are saying the TPLF was defeated, there leaders was either captured or killed. Now, they  are getting even satellite and communication support. For any outcome Ethiopia is doomed and it effect Somalia and Somalis big time.

The Oromo is weakest link but also most dangerous group. You right about their similarities with Somalis. If they are not managed right. They will destroy the whole thing and they will come to Jigjiga for sure.  Blinken will not able to manage Ethiopia.

[Duufaan]

People should read this book

Losing the Long Game: The False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East Hardcover – October 6, 2020

by Philip H. Gordon  (Author)

 

[Che -Guevara]