"All roads lead to Finfinne." Jaal Marroo

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

According to sources, roads to Addis Ababa have been cut off.

[Dhagaxtuur]

That bad, eh?

[Arafaat]

Thousands and thousands of Oromo youth have already flooded Finfinne over the last years, being told Finfinne is Oromo and theirs to capture. 

[Che -Guevara]

Abiy wants to use them now as cannon fodder after betraying them.

 

[Che -Guevara]

4 hours ago, Dhagaxtuur said:

That bad, eh?

Yes! If Ethiopia does not break up this time around,  I don't see that happening in the future. So, this is very consequential for Ethiopia and the region.

[galbeedi]

Che,

This Jaal Maaro is a primitive paramilitary who moves around when he sees an empty village or town. When the federal army moves in he abandons his position quickly. Every time we hear the TPLF is on the move this fellow claims to have cut the road to Addis.He could have isolated Addis long ago, but he isn't the original OLF that we have known to have some ideology or principle.

He is probably a useful idiot that will be used by the TPLF to conquer the Oromo. The lazy Amhara had refused to die for their land and will be irrelevant for the future of Ethiopia. 

As I said, if Abiy doesn't reverse this defeat quickly, he might even flee from Addis before the end of the year. Having said that,  for the TPLF to rule Ethiopia again or become junior partners with Oromo they must subdue the Oromo heartland and Somali Galbeed. THese two groups must get ready and fight the TPLF when they enter the Oromo heartland outside Finfine. If trhe Oromo want to rule Ethiopia for the next decade , they shouldn't allow any TPLF soldier to enter their soil. Keep the war in the north.

THe Abyssinian highlanders , despite their deep hatred could make up and kiss in order to rule again the Oromo and others. The TPLF prefer to secede from Ethiopia eventually, but big powers will not allow at the moment until they achieve their desired outcome.

Despite all the unexpected opportunity for Somalis, the current leader in Jigjiga, Ina Cagjar, isn't looking beyond Dessie in the Amhara region and northern Ethiopia. He could mobilize and train 25,000 Somali special forces if things get ugly and protracted war rages around Addis for months. Despite having Ogaden Liberation Front, the OG community had a history of allying with the colonial powers in order to gain few Shakels from Menelik, Haile Salasie and TPLF.

Cagjar has opportunity to create a free Somali state, yet judging by his rhetoric he is concentrating to save the current regime than thinking of plan B. I am one of those who wish the survivsal of Abiy Ahmed, but if his people can't defend themselves from a landlocked rag time Tigray, then let the chips fall where they may.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Che -Guevara]

Galbeedi,

Jaal Marroo had an opportunity to lay down arms and be granted a cushy job within Oromia or by the Federal Government. He was one of the first to see through Abiy's duplicity. I can't speak to his leadership style but he does have following and has successfully fought off the government.  The war in Oromia was hidden one 

The today's OLA is different in that it is mostly students, not peasants led by few educated men. Its ranks have filled and they pretty much control the vast countryside.

OLA have loyalties in the huge Oromia state security. Once Abiy is gone, this group will quickly switch sides. A lot of them already have.

The TPLF and Tigrians have an existential question to ask, try to rule Ethiopia with iron fist and risk another threat to their homeland or set the stage for dissolution of Ethiopia in a way that favors them?

Any alliances they have now is temporary. All groups will turn on each other.

Three men are important to the Oromo, Jawar who represents Muslims by default, Lemma who Abiy stabbed in the back, and Jaal Marroo. They are all young men who are avowed nationalists. They don't trust TPLF nor they want to be junior partners.

In fact, I think Somalis have to worry more about Oromos. TPLF is concerned about Amharas and Eritrea.

 

[Khadafi]

Che nailed it good. Galbeedi, just as Che said times have changed and during the 30 years of TPLF the main thing that oromos benifited from was de-colonisation from the amhara-centric Ethiopia. Just look at the names "Jaale Maarso" . If the tplf have indeed as they claim captured Dessie they captured the jugular vein of Ethiopia, meaning that they could stop djabouti-Addis high way. They tried through the afars and failed but lazy amhara do not want to fight. Just as you said,  Abey is now freely armed civilans, the golden rule of war is creating ethnic militias and arming them to the teeth and sending to the front without shoes that clear indication that the whole front has collapsed. The TPLF will never be able to rule Ethiopia as it did before. The armed qeeros who have massivly joined  OLF-W and are aware of  jawar and lemma will not allow them rule.

 

As for the somalis, cagjar was busy making his holy ziyara to Meneliks grave and praising. I mean it, 1 year ago He went invited to Bahri Dahr universaty and became the first somali to praise Menelik  to the delight of Amhara public. 

[galbeedi]

2 hours ago, Khadafi said:

As for the somalis, cagjar was busy making his holy ziyara to Meneliks grave and praising. I mean it, 1 year ago He went invited to Bahri Dahr universaty and became the first somali to praise Menelik  to the delight of Amhara public. 

If Cagjar takes steps to safeguard the Somali state from Oromia regions and others, and takes emergency measures by claiming to save Somali Galbeed from the coming chaos, neither Abiy nor Ethiopia could force him or remove from power. Unlike Cabdi Illey, he is elected through the PP party and can't be ordered from Addis.

He could desolve his party and create national unity government and demand a new Ethiopia without declaring independence. THe worst thing to do just wait for the winners and be a lame duck. 

Things are changing very quickly, as you guys had mentions, Cumbolcha is the main intersection of the railway and highway from Djibouti to Addia, Bahar Dar and Tigray. The Ethiopian army is in a panic, they are leaving equipment for the TPLF. THe rebels might move to the capital by this weekend.

THe Oromo has hundreds of thousands of special forces and it will be difficult for TPLF to subdue. History could be repeating itself. Just like 1991, The Americans could force the TPLF to hold off their assault on the capital and intervene to create a transitional government led by one of the three Oromo leaders who are in prison or house arrest: Jawar who has the largest support among the Oromo, Bakale Garba as a senior leader or even Lemma Magrasa. Tigray will be happy with Ethiopia where the Amhara are irrelevant. 

The TPLF might borrow a page from Eritrea who first made sure the junior cousins take power in Addis and then force a referendum. The Oromo might allow the Tigray to leave Ethiopia eventually. Che, as you mentioned if chaos comes, the threat to Somalis would come from the Oromo separatists.

It is depressing that that those in Jigjiga are doing nothing but to wait the uncle that marries their mother.

 

 

 

[Che -Guevara]

The Qeerro are out in force and elements of OLA are surrounding Addis Ababa or Finfinne as some Tigrians are even calling it.

The TPLF needs to be Addis to restore services to Tigray and break the seige. And then they will move in to Mi'irabawi Zone which is still occupied by Amhara, it's an important farming region critical to any future Tigray state.

[Che -Guevara]

Khadafi and Galbeedi,

One thing we tend to ignore or forget is the social fabric is broken now. It's no longer simply about politics. Your average Tigrian can't stand Amharas and Amharas can't stand Oromo and Tigrians.

When this excitement dies down, Oromo and Tigrians will be at it as well. This might be the only thing working for Somalis.

[galbeedi]

our enemies are collapsing , yet we can't form a decent government thanks to the Mogadishu quagmire.

[Khadafi]

I have the to say the impasse and the lack of action from cagjr is not something that suprised me.  Nearly 35 yearsof SNM, USC, SANU (not armed,) SSF, every clan with acronym disguise of "S" for somali have destroyed the pan-somali spirit or weakended to a point that Cagjar and many Somalis, even ministers in Somalia  have inferiority complex to the highlanders  xabashida.

 

100 years ago the spirit of a Soomali was according to a historical somali source a sound one with no inferiority complex. Indeed it was the xabashida landlocked who were on the run who even dressed as muslims. Isolated as they were. The somali spirit have been told by  the late mass murderor and colonial general  fascist  Grazianil, Once near afgooye he was passing by was . He passed through a   daughter of a famous religous somali leader.  She was a sweet tea made of caano.geel  seller and she to inherited sacred law.  Graziani had through his somali "askaris" gotten a taste for the somali  tea. Back then the mugs were made by wooden mugs.

When Graziani orderd his tea and finished it he saw the woman taking the cup and then throwing it away.  Amazed he asked a local somali  why she would she  do that The somali askari said  in a whispering way, anxiously "she views you as a gaal, and this was the first time he had seen a white gaal and she views you as naajis" (I dont know the best term for this term in the sacred law.  Shocked  graziani orderd his soldiers to tear down her small tea shop and went into the campaign of conquering Ethiopia in 1936. The woman was Ruqiya ine  Shaykh Axmed Xaaji Mahdi (qs).

Such was the mindset of Somalis.

 

Returning the conflict, the west neither has time nor the will to save its sacred anicent "abyssinia" that Menelik forged by chopping of the hands of muslim oromos and killing somalis. and afars and every lowlanders.  The inferiority complex or  the neo pax-exthiopiana  during 200-2014.  with famous yellow sofa is over.  Pres Cabdullahi would came and be forced to  pledge his alliance, the SNM aka Somaliland leaders come the next weak to pledge their alliance  in the same yellow TPLF sofa. Pictures would be taken  with weyane a hyeana that comes from a non-blessed countrey that even lacks a river, a desert, a place where the norm is to eat injera with hot berbera  souce for breakfeast, hot berbera suace with injenera with hot souce, A cursed place making instructions.

I fully agree with Che   that what every actión Abey does he loses. He lost when he refused to use the oromo card that actually brought him to the power.  He lost it when another lunatic and opressor of the faith Cafwerki played his mind and  lured him to launch a war, 4 months into a war and once the whiskey and the fine brandey had run out from Cafwerki and sounds of Americans sanctions if he did not withdraw, he made the sound and logical choice to with draw. 

3 months later Mekelle was re taken and now the the rebels are at the gates. The americans are confused. The TPLF will not listen to  USA, indeed USA did not come to their rescue when they needed it.  They will throw all their manpower and love texting to the oromos to  take finn finne. The best scenario for cagjar is to find Addis abbeba divided between feuding ethnicities. Just as kabul became once the soviets withdrew.  The TPLF has clearly said that once they find a military solution they will have international conferance and that conferance will the mark the end of Meneliks ethiopia. Somalis should prepare for a strong military border with a secular millions of armed oromos.   

Cagjar should adress his people  dressed in military fatigue just as the Afar leaders did when they refused to the be ockupied by the TPLF. He should mobilise all somalis using the ethnic card in order to fortify the non-demarcated borders between oromos and somalis and afars. Lack action, and lack of communication to his own people regarding his thoughts shows the inferiority complex.

I dont know what else to call it.

 

[Che -Guevara]