Shabaab could capture mogadishu as the Taliban did.

[Khadafi]

While dramatic scenes were unfolding within 2 weeks, seeing the advancement of the disciplined dhaalebaan,  capturing city after city  a friend of mine, a high ranking official within Somali government called me.  While drinking a cup of qaxwo I noticed that the official was surprised how the "west" had failed the notorious corrupt afghan government.  I like to use metaphors, It makes your arguments much more understandable and comical. I said to him "hey, if your as a light 70 kg man engage in a boxing match with Mike Tyson" for 20 years you will be beaten every time. But everytime you get knocked off you learn  to be strong. If Mike Tyson then says "adios but you will be fighting women like man in my replacement" 

What do you think will happen?  Thats exactly what happened in Afghanistan. Indeed USA was humiliated and defeated in Afghanistan.  I still do remember 9/11 when Mullah Omar the deceased  leader  of the Dhaaliban was asked why war was looming in the air. He said something in the line of " we asked the americans of proof but they refused to talk to us, if they wage of war we will win". The BBC journalist asked in a mocking way "how will you defeat a great power as USA".  He said " The greatest power is god, and if god is with us we will defeat them just as we did with the russians".

Coming back to the issue, the high ranking Somali official was reminded by me that realpolitik determines US-intrests. When Somali pirates captured the largest Saudi oil vessel it shook the market and every nation on earth sent their vessels to the read sea to fend of "Somali pirates". What they really wanted was of course to train and keep the vital trade route open.  The piracy died down but chinese vessels from djabouti is still roaming in Somali seas, probably in company with large vaacum fishing vessels. They did the same in Gambia and now its Somalias turn?.

So what about our murderous terrorist local lads, dubbed arsenal or al shabaab by frightended Somalis? While the Deobandi Dhaaliban never abandoned the the sunnni xanafi madhab  and the naqshbandi sufi tariiqa, and sunni maturidi creed our local lads pledged loyalty to a shady  arab  terrorist al-qaeda  whose creed ultimately comes from salafism.  On that fatefull day they sealed their fate? How can you  engage with organisation that believes in a never ending war as a part of the faith.?  Bombing hotels and even somali muslim scholars.

I went to Somalia in 2019, after 30 years of exile and was shocked by the cultural damage that the civil war had inflicted upon us.  High rising buildings with so called 5 high stars hotels. While exeting the hotel goats roam free in the city and the improvised  IDPS are every where.  Anyways,  less then 50 km away or 30 km away I was adviced not to go to Ceelasha biyaha, Al-shabaab were in full controll. The road from Mogadishu to Kismayu  is controlled by the murderous gang.  The same thing applies to Mogadishu to Baidoa. The so called "presidents of the regions" have to take a helicopter to mogadishu in ordet to attend meetings in Mogadishu? Just as the dhaaleeban, Al-shabaab has its own shadow government, that taxes, and judges and executes its order in a brutal and efficent way while the Somali court system simply depends on bribes,. Property problems are now best solved by al-shabaab.

While Farmaajo or the so called "opposition" are hacking each others time and wasting time the murderous gang of mobsters Al-shabaab that claims to be fighting for Islam while they are indeed khwaarij or the  worst of them all.   Friends.  America is in decline,  it simply doesnt have the time or the money. The whole "somali federal government" is project financed by the the west.   I said jokingly to the my friend once that money dries out dont be a person  thats going to cling on the wing of airplance as the afghans did.

Somalia is not Afghanistan,  But the their are striking similarities Two nations that has seen civil war for 30 years and a generation that grew up in seeing no institutions.  The Somali national army is notoriously corrupt and clan aligned while al-shabaab are disciplined

The terrorists wahaaabiyada are biding their time, once the money dries out I really do believe Mogadishu could be in danger, I do not want be pessimistic but while Xassan shaykh was fighting for finding concensus and nation building Farmaajo cooking up sixir with afwerqi and Abey Amxaaro and how to grab on to power and install loyalists in the regions.  He had the massive support in Mogadishu but eroded that.  I dont want to be pessemistic but lets see how things go.  Maybe Al-shabaab will see their fatal mistake in aligning themselves with Al-qaeda and their "mystical leader" cuts the ties to the  Al-qaeda and copies the Taliban formula we might see and end to the  Federal democratic government of Somalia and see  The Islamic emirate of Somalia?  

Dark clouds are gaining the upper hand in the horn of africa, ethiopia is not dissolving, IT HAS allready disolved and is in civil war. 

 

Ilaahay 5 soomalida ha isku keeno! dalkeena iyo dadkeena cadowga ha ka haayo. Shimee aa la fahmaa nabad in ey dan noo tahay!

Yaabeeeyay!

 

 

 

[AbdillahiSamatar]

You are right the paper "government" of Somalia will suffer the same fate as Ashraf Ghani but will Qatar welcome the corrupt Somali politicians and their ill gotten gains? Only time will tell...but I do believe as you do that once the money from U.N/U.S.A and E.U dry up the "government" will collapse. 

[Che -Guevara]

Somalia is not Afghanistan and Al-Shabab is no Taliban,

[Khadafi]

7 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

Somalia is not Afghanistan and Al-Shabab is no Taliban,

Tribal in nature, fragile corrupt state. Che,  Its much more easier to discard facts on the table then actually confront them. Somalia 1 at corruption, 2 was afghanistan, both had fragile governments that had to be boosted by foreign troops. 

 

I even going to more dramatic and claim that Mogadishu is under seige. 

[Che -Guevara]

Khadafi,

AS might take over Mogadishu because it has a support base there, but let's remember AS by itself couldn't defeat Ahlu Sunna. And tribal nature of Somalis will work against it. I don't see Pland or another major clan joining AS or cutting a deal with them. And unlike the Taliban, AS is not politically sophisticated. Taliban wants to build a state, and it is not beholden to anyone, AS has fantasies of global Islamic Government. and takes orders from some Arab hiding in a cave. 

But I do agree with you, this corrupt government with no sense of purpose and direction cannot withstand a disciplined ragtag militia, they could not even withstand tribal militias. 

They have no revenue base, no regular army apart from special forces, and no real leadership. 

[Duufaan]

it does not have to be Alshabaab taking advantage. As other mentions they are not Taliban rather gangs who collects money to support themselves. However, without salary not paid the cause will start day one. If the foreign cash support dries and SNA will not be paid things could change rapidly. The west already stopped any direct money going to Somali government 12 months ago with Farmaajo disagreement. Thanks Turkey 30 millions cash flow and Bayle tricks the salary is paid now. the local revenue which is about 40% of government budgets is simply not enough for the currupted ministers alone. The reason of rapid Taliban advance was due, the government soldiers did not get paid for months. The west decided to leave for many reasons but was hoping a civil war in Afghanistan  but it back fired. The new taliban will be able secure Aghanistan even without foreign assistant that scenario scares the west.  Siyaad Barre government collapsed for same reason. After fall of soviet union, the west and golf countries were not sending any more money to moqdisho and with new leader in UAE, the biggest donor by time, things ended badly. Somalia state will not survive without creating local revenue enough for paying salary either today or tomorrow. This issue the colonial powers were talking about in 1950 and 1960 when SYL was fighting for independent Somali. Unfortunately Somali politicians disappointed Somali people again and again going easy route asking foreigners for donations in return to offer Somalia strategic potion. Going forward somali government must create local revenue enough for paying salaries at least. Bayle is right person to lead that direction but no one will listen as corruption is a culture in Somalia. 

[maakhiri1]

The similarities is absolutely shocking. Corruption, law moral as soldiers salaries stollen, lack of loyalty to nation, week institutions,  clan ideology and no regard for rule of law, anarchism  and list goes on

I agree with Khadafi, if funding and Amisom leaves,  whole Somalia will fall within months.

[Tillamook]

The pathetic centrist supporters of Useless Farmaajo’s defunct government have now all of sudden become proponents of anti-corruption and good governance, huh? 

 

[galbeedi]

6 hours ago, Khadafi said:

How can you  engage with organisation that believes in a never ending war as a part of the faith.?  Bombing hotels and even somali muslim scholars.

Other than Shariif Ahmed, no one within the current government or the previous one ever tried any form of negotiations with Al-shabaab. Taliban and successive Afghan governments had engaged on and of for the last ten years. The Taliban never wavered on their major demand of foreign forces leaving the country.

Taliban's strength was their  mountaineer fighters and their ability to engage superior forces . While terrorizing and targeting Kabul was constant, they had an standing army fully engaged. Al-shabaab is weak in central Somali and almost doesn't exist in Puntland. In Gaalkacay, for the last ten years, they relied on sleeper cells killing and bombing. That cell was uncovered last year with a great success which almost eliminated them. Also unlike the Afghan army who couldn't engage the Taliban without the Americans, Somali special forces can hold their ground.

Yet, I agree with Khadaafi and others that if salaries are not paid coupled with with anti government sentiment in Mogadishu, things could go south quickly. My biggest fear isn't Al-shabaab, but the business community who are mainly Salafi adherents who want to keep the status quo might switch sides and ride the Al-shabaab horse. 

One major similarity between Kabul and Mogadishu is the elite reside and live within exclusive green zone which makes them different from the local people. While people are partying in these big hotels, the insurgents are just away 30 km.

Our hope is that Turkey and others will stand with us. I have no hope of the American military, for the last 8 years they have trained one single battalion called Danab which is under their command.

3 hours ago, Duufaan said:

The west decided to leave for many reasons but was hoping a civil war in Afghanistan  but it back fired

THe Americans turned off the light and left Bagram air base three in the morning without even telling the government. I guess the Afghans are smarter than us. A long war between 300,000 American equipped army and Taliban insurgents could have kept going another 20 years. So, after all, the Afghan army might have made a good decision.

3 hours ago, Tillamook said:

The pathetic centrist supporters of Useless Farmaajo’s defunct government .  

 

 

When I saw the Taliban march, I was thinking loud of my old dream of marching my army from Balacad to Lowyacado in the name of law and order and restoration.

By the way guys, Kabul is more peaceful today than ever. The check points within the city had disappeared and business is good unless you are a female dancer in the red district of Kabul.

 

 

 

[maakhiri1]

 

Second District official in three months killed in car bomb in Mogadishu

HIIRAAN.COM

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MOGADISHU (HOL) - A District official in the outskirts of Mogadishu was killed today in a bomb attack becoming the second official in...

 

[Khadafi]

I fully agree with you. Che regarding the corruption but I would say that PL and SL are bastion of Salafism in Somalia rather then southern Somalia. PL would fall as they were close  to falling when the islamic courts union turned their eyes on PL by using tribes from PL. It was only the failed and miserable invasion of the TPLF that saved PL.   Butin order for us to make a good analysis its imperative  that we really  recognise the downfall of traditional Islam and how Somalis embraced Wahabism/Salafism. Who could blame them? Pan-Somalism failed, communism failed, the state collapsed. They embraced this ideology that was first introduced to Somalia by 50-ties mainly wahabism during the 90-ties.

I am amazed  and dazzled how we somalis have have not seen the biggest change in the somali society. If Abyssinia is defined  per say as orthodox christians  as they are , Somalis were before the civil war  identified as Shafite muslims with sunni qaaadariya dariiqa. We had religous centres in southern Somalia settlements where a spiritual studet from furtherst Dhagaxbuur (Soomali galbeed)  would come and  settle and learn  for free for example in Alle ha u naxariisto Macalin Nuur Siyaads religous center or Sheekh Suufis center in Costal Xamwarwayne  and settlements in baardheere for free.

The semi-nomadic tribes of southern Somalia would  give food to these religous centers that would within 7 years produce learned masters in linguistics /cilmul-balaagha, mantaq /logic, fiqh (shafite) and the path to cleanse your inner soul sufism (dariiqada) and ofcourse Aqiida (ashaacira).

While traditional sunni islam is still dominant among southern Somalis its n a decline in PL and SL. All you see is an extreme cultish  ofshoot of the rabiiciyada, nick named "timo waynta". 

People in those areas were even groomed mentally in a post-colonial way to view traditional islam as "being backward, shirk, etc". I do  not want to make the topic a religious but when Umul wanted to visit mogadishu  people openly demonstrated against him holding his religious sermons and viewed as a wolf in  a sheep clothes.

They said he was no different from al-shabaab. Indeed he was the one who made mass-tafkfir and legitimised the so called "jihad" against the TFG president Cabdullahu Yuusuf Alle ha u naxariisto.

During a Q:A on a Somali TV-channel a wise religous  somali man asked one of these religious scholars why they declared a "jihad" on President Cabdullahi Yuusuf on the premise of foreign forces  being present in Somalia and then changed their mind when another president took over despite that nothing on the ground changed.. 

The poor old Ictisaam member had no answer and qouted random stuff and said "we see things in a new way". The questioner then said  you said xxx are you ready openly to take back those statements?. The religious old man had no answer. Indeed how could he?. He was exposed for what he was, a wolf in a sheeps clothes. The canadian fellow who is a traditionalist religious scholar  Shaykh Kishki exposed these people.

As I said before the west is in decline,  weather we like it or not Mogadishu is under a siege. According a relative of mine of who is a member of the government  Farmaajo failed to follow the "international community" aka the Wests plan for the stabilisation of Somalia.

Farmaajo is a master of playing on peoples emotions  and made himself as victim a foreign plot but the truth is that he was a man who never understood how deeply the somali society had fractured. His nostalgia for pre 91 is where he began and he surrounded himself with advisors from  his uncle who are now in their late 70!. 

The so called opposition Cabdi shakuur and Sheekh Shariif love to use the tribal card but they themselves can travel by car to ceelasha biyaha.  They themselves are in denial.  Just  like how everyone in Afghanistan was in denial, with the  ethnic Tajib Abdullah Abdulllah engaging in a vicious campaign in order to get something so are the somalis doing. Its a zero sum  way of doing politics.

Relative of mine who belongs to this salafi business elite of Mogadishu says  the economical judicial parts of al-shabaab is so  disciplined that if the know if you import a single Toyota car and demand a tax on it, a tax much more smaller then the governments fee. He said they mad the fee much more smaller in order to appease  the business elite and turn them their side against  the government.

Amisom has now been in Somalia for 15 years and the signals above is that the somali government has to fight for themselves. Amisom does not conduct any military engagements. A general and a relative of mine within Somali national Army who is in his late 60-ties said to me "The goal of Amisom is not to eliminate Al-shabaab, they are only here in Mogadishu in order to stop Al-shabaab from capturing the capital".

I did not take his statement to be serious but then when I came home, It mad sense. Amisom fought hard to liberate  Mogadishu during Sheekh Shariifs time and then stopped.  The white people established bases where apartheid rules are enforced. Only white people who feast upon conflicts and various NGOs are their.

We somalis tend to follow emotions. The gang leader of Al-shabaab is probably following the events of Afghanistan very closely.  If he openly disavows  Al-qaeda and changes his  tunes to a nationalistic one, we might the see the west engaging them. I doubt this scenario but it could happen.  Would Amisom withdraw Baladwayne, Baidawa  Kismaayo would fall, and Mogadishu would probably fall after a  prolonged siege,

 

 

[AbdillahiSamatar]

What ever the scenario Somaliland would not fall under the boot of a terrorist organisation. They have no grassroot support and the government keeps a close eye on terrorist. The Taliban are like the TPLF, ELF, SNM or ZANu-PF in terms of organisation and success but nothing like that exist in Somalia so Somaliland is safe.

[galbeedi]

17 hours ago, Khadafi said:

Farmaajo failed to follow the "international community" aka the Wests plan for the stabilisation of Somalia.

Khadaafi,

I do appreciate the way you explaining the religious sects part of the country. Usually, you don't see anyone mention the Qadiriya Somali tradition overrun by the gulf money inspired Wahabi sect. 

The " international Community" planing to stabilize Somalia is just a talking points released for the UN consumption. Just look the facts on the ground. How many real soldiers they have trained for the last 8 to 10 years?. Stabilizing the nation is the work of the Somali leaders and the people. We all have been blaming the leaders. Hassan Sheikh has done some work, but most prominent Somali members of the parliament, government ministers, military commanders, artists including Saado Cali Warsame  were killed or bombed in Mogadishu between 2012--2016, many of them in the middle of the street.

Tribal militia masquerading as national army will collapse when their clans became opposition to the government or their commanders goes rogue. At the moment, Al-shabaab is a law enforcement issue in Mogadishu. Greedy businessmen are trading the blood of the citizens for many. 

Here In Mogadishu local clan businessmen are sentenced very light jail terms and could be released after through bribes while foot soldiers are condemned to death. 

 

This are pure criminals or mafia making money. Al-shabaab is no longer a religious movement but a criminal entity. THose who killed people in Gaalkacay got paid just $150 dollars per mission.

 

 

 

 

[galbeedi]

If these cells are exposed many cities could become safe. Let us take advantage of the support Turkey is giving us.

[Khadafi]

Galbeedi, Your very much correct in your analysis regarding the national army and how al-shabaab nowdays could be considerd as a crime syndicate with close ties to business elite. What I think you underestimate is that Southern Somalia is now 50 percent wahabist and 50 traditional shafite muslims. Its much more worse in the diaspora, all major religous centres are run by small organized group from the days of itixaad,

Who can deny the ties of digital movike money transfer company and salaama bank run by the inner circle 2 clerics, one who said eating wolves and hyeanas was xalaal and one who openely said he saw with own eyes a London clinic 300 girls from age 13-16 with aids.  i certain Somali journalist tried find the truth in these bold statements, if they are true then we need to talk about STI.  The cleric refused to publically make a statement.

Even if a coin has two diffirent shaped shades is the same coin. During the the late 80-ties and early 90 ties gates of wahabiyya was flooded with financial aid. Do nor fooled. The sleeoer cells are those who truly fell in align with books of fatxul.majid and how Muhammed Binu Abdul-wahab justified killing and robbing by making takfir and fighting the ottoman turks. The so called scholars in Puntland embraced these ideas and the north and north eastern have always lacked religious learning, It is not accident that all major historical  famous Somali scholars were from the south, They had the resources to make settlements.

Zeylaci, Uweys Barawi  Qasim al Barawi, Shaykh Suufi, Shaykh Abiikar mixdaar, Sheekh Cali maye, Sheekh , Sheekh Axmed Xaaji Mahdi,  Sheekh muxyadiin celi, Sheekh Abaa gadeem qadasallaahu sirruhum  wa nafcalla bihim were all from the south.

The north do not have the subac-soon,  PL and SL has completely been overun but the mentioned dariiqyo, qaadariya with its ofshoots zeylaciyo and uweysia and the idrisiya aka axmadiya Sheekh Cali maye and Saalixiya have made a combat. Southerners have also learned the mistake.  The tradutionalists have made a cone back with youtubechannels Why do you think Umul was welcomed in thousands and when the wolf eater said he would come to Mogadishu, traditionalists demanded that he public ally issues and apology for opening the doors of mass takfir. 

The diaspora is completely dominated by them, in their colonial minds they even refused to teach somali kids SheekH Yuusuf al Kowyneyns genios somali-sised  arabic teaching method for writing and reading.  Salafism is today in crisis when its birthplace, its bastion of financial  hub openly acknowledged  that their form of Islam made havoc in Muslim countries. When MBS said "we made a mistake" WAMY the international organisation for spreading salafism received zero money. With no salary  the roof  and building they created in Somalia is cracking,

The canadian fellow, Shaykh Kishki is the modern sufi qadariya who indeed exposed these people.