The week in review: Kabul as Saigon 2.0, Somali clan cheering for the TPLF are doomed, drug and money laundering in Djibouti and the 80 years old men.

[galbeedi]

 

American pilots cannot shoot straight, their politicians are masters in terms of pandering to  the next special interest and now their military experts are wrong by a mile----again. The American CIA was wrong about the Soviet Union and they couldn't even predict the coming collapse of the Soviets in 1989.

In July, US president said that Kabul will not be another Saigon and Americans will not be airlifted from the Kabul embassy. Poor Joe, he probably based his conclusion by the advice of the American Pentagon. Just this week, the Pentagon said: it will take 90 days for the Taliban to take over of the capital Kabul. 

Yet, looking how things are unfolding in Afghanistan at the moment, Kabul might fell within the next few days or this coming weekend. That is how wrong the Americans are, by a mile.

 

The Americans were paying 315,000 Afghan security personnel and their associates before the peace deal was signed. There were no credible institutions to manage this over-sized force and bureaucracy. They were probably mercenaries collecting their salary and fighting along with  the foreign army. The strange thing is these Talibans  may look like turban wearing rural peasants with AK47, but their political and military moves are sophisticated just like any seasoned state diplomats and military strategists. 

America lost Afghanistan in the spring of 2003, when they abandoned  the country to wage an illegal war in Iraq. Before that they controlled 90% of the country and Taliban were reduced to small pockets bordering Pakistan and the north eastern mountains. The  neocons threw  away every logic and went to Iraq. The rest is history.

 

They are buying local tribes to be neutral, giving amnesty to warlords, commanders and governors without firing a bullet. These could only be achieved also with a lot of money, and experts say that the Taliban is carrying bags of money from the gulf and the Chinese. The latter is doing their dirty work behind the scene and would do anything to damage the ego of the Americans by displaying the image of another Saigon in the roof tops of the American embassy in Kabul. Former president Trump,  who measures everything with money and business value,  demanded to get the Afghan rare minerals which they deserve because of the blood and treasures they spent. The generals were amused, but the Orange man had a point.

 

The current president of Afghanistan will be airlifted probably next week and the Taliban will have total control soon. Some of us were predicting that the major ethnic groups beside the Pashtuns, like the Tajik, Uzbeks, Turkmen and Hazar's might resist and create long term security issues for the Taliban . Each one of these ethnic groups have bordering nations who share their ethnic group except the Hazara who are majority Shia with close relations with Iran. It seems the Taliban did their homework early and took major border crossing points with these bordering nations. They even said that they will not allow back the Afghan Shia volunteers who went to Syria to fight for Assad.

 

This week Turkey closed their border with Iran to stop the flood of refugees from Afghanistan. Many European and others want Turkey to be the dumping ground of the NATO failure in Afghanistan. 

 

Since everyone is resigned to the eventual takeover of the Taliban, the next move would be to demonize them as monsters who want to eat your children. . THis morning I was listening a report from a Kabul based Afghani journalist who describes the horrific events taking place and others that  might happen in the future.  He said widowed women who lost their husband are afraid that they might be forced to marry Taliban fighters  by force and he narrated about 13 years old girl being raped by Taliban and tossed her body to the river. The Taliban are harsh Salafis who are rigid in their interpretations of the faith, and might force women out of public life, but they do not rape women in public or during the war. It is against their tradition and customs. Yet, I don't blame the poor Afghan reporter who is trying to flee and reach better places than Afghanistan like everyone else.

 

The Evil Somali tribes are longing for the return of TPLF .

 

The TPLF and their supporters who supposed to be starving are on the move. According Somali news websites from Hargeisa, Garoowe and Nairobi and some from the diaspora from Djibouti are cheering the false caravan of TPLF who will never reach Addis again. This hope against hope is making many Somalis tribes  anxious. On their side, the TPLF is making hit and run and other guerrilla type moves to terrorize communities . A hundred men ,TPLF force,  will move pass behind enemy lines and attack some towns far away from the front. Then Panic would ensue catching off guard almost everyone. At the moment, their biggest hope is to reach Samara, the capital of the Afar regional government to control the Djibouti--Ethiopia economic life line and destroy the airport which will be used for drone attacks against them. Another hope is to find other rebel movements to destabilize Ethiopia.

 

Yet, according to people in Ethiopia, the Abiy government will begin their counter attack soon. The Abiy Ahmed government had shown the world that the starving Tigrayans , especially the TPLF is war mongering and hell bent to destabilize Ethiopia. In 1991, the TPLF captured Addis with help of the superior Eritrean Liberation Front,  the Oromo Liberation Front and even some Amhara who were willing for change. This time the land locked TPLF are playing with fire with hope of internal Ethiopian collapse or the helping hand of foreign nations. If this thing drags even another few months, the TPLF and Tigray itself might not survive the onslaught of the coming march of million Ethiopian army. At the moment, the Ethiopian army might not be well trained, but certainly they could overwhelm the tiny landlocked Tigray and their tough rebels.

 

Dhag Dheer Dhimatoo Dhulkii Waa Nabad.

 

I have bad news for the Geel Jire tribes cheering for their former landlords.  The TPLF will never come back again to rule. Despite few Oromo disgruntled fighters of the animist Jaal Maro, the TPLF have difficulty even holding to their homeland let alone conquer others. Even their strategy is apparent to anyone who knows anything about military. They attacking in order to defend and slow down the wave.

 

THE ONLF .

 

There are rumors among Ethiopians that the Somali movement of ONLF might join the war to help their former abusers. We were expecting the Somalis in Jigjiga to join hands including the opposition, and demand more autonomy by helping defend Ethiopia against the highlanders. Yet, the ONLF which had extensive connections with foreign intelligence could be persuaded to open another front against the government to help the TPLF.  If the ONLF does anything to undermine the current government to help the TPLF, they will be crushed for good. Mustafe Cagjar will fbe orced to crush them before Ethiopia intervenes. Beware of your choices.

 

 

Counterfeit money and Drugs in Djibouti.

 

In August 5 2021, president Omar Geelle was summoned to the African command center in Djibouti. Sources say he went there around 10:00 AM in the morning and left 2:00 PM. He was questioned by the FBI and the American secret service who are usually involved anything that has to do with counterfeit of the  American dollar. According to the sources, the FBI and US DEA ( Drug enforcement Agency) were investigating a drug and prostitution rings operated the son in law of Omar Geele who is an Ivorian national. He uses his two private jets to transport drugs using Djiboutian diplomatic passports. Last year he was arrested in South Africa, and was released on bail. Somehow, the case in South Africa didn't proceed and the man changed the logo of the airlines and re branded his company. This reminds of the Somali leaders called in Halane.

 

All that drug thing is not new in Djibouti. Omar Geele and friends used to export alcohol to Saudi Arabia in the eighties and nineties. Also, money laundering and illegal offshore banks were available in Djibouti for a long time. When you look Djibouti business district, it is a very small area of less than few kilometres  squares. Other than Ethiopian trade, the only major groups that use the port are supply for the foreign troops. Yet, Djibouti city has 12 foreign owned banks that operate in this tiny market. Very few Somali Djiboutians borrow money from these banks. In fact, if you walk in Djibouti around the port or even some isolated are you will find huge villas with big billboard signs on the roof and big embassy style gates. No one knows what they do. To borrow money you must be connected to the ruling family. Osman Arab Geele, the man who set up the Coca-Cola plant in Hargeisa was among those who borrowed $20 million and disappeared.He was helped by the late governor of the central bank of Djibouti Mr. Hayd who is the brother of the Omar Geele wife. Some of you might remember few years ago when Muuse Biixi tried to arrest him and extradite to Djibouti.

 

Because of the fixed rate of the American dollar exchange, it will be easy to transfer dollars from Djibouti to outside world using these banks. Two Somali owned  banks, Dahabshiil and Salaama bank are under investigation as we speak. This new case is involved a former foreign minister who is also the second cousin of the wife of the president. Mr. Mohamed Abdi , who is the secretary general of the ruling party the RPP,  has exchanged 200 million Djibouti Francs to 1.2 million American dollars and then allegedly mixed with another $1 million American counterfeit money and transferred to a foreign bank. The Americans were notified by the foreign banks and came to Djibouti to investigate. 

 

I know Omar Geele is involved a lot these days. His people have even opened business in Mogadishu. I have seen a local guy almost zero  income fly to Asia and set up shop in Mogadishu. When I inquired how this guy rose from being a working-class fellow to a multimillion-dollar company, they said he got over a million-dollar investment from his ruling clan and be part of ears and eyes of Omar Geele in Mogadishu.

 

This will be the worst election ever in Mogadishu.

 

The genius Ahmed Madoobe led the way and others have followed.

 

In Kismaayo the would-be candidates had chosen their drivers, secretaries and cousins to run against them. The mistrust between the those who supposed to vote and select the chosen candidate was so huge most of the would-be challengers didn't even contest. While Madoobe set the tone for the games of the selection, it was C/laahi Deni of Puntland who became the ugliest among those selecting. He chose couple of men who were in their eighties. One,  Mr. Gaagaab from MUdug, couldn't even find a fake candidate to make him the best man. The woman who was his challenger could not even read the prepared statement.

 

The next Somali senate will be dominated by old men in their eighties. Abdi Hashi, the septuagenarian from Hargeisa had shown his early dementia, he could no longer distinguish 1991 from 2020. Faroole isn't leaving us yet, so does Muuse Suudi and even Ahmed Xaaf might join the old men who never go. It is getting ugly. By the way, these were the men who were complaining about the process and deadlocked the country for months.

 

Dhiisi baad moodaa Markuu

Afka kuu soo dhaweynaye

dhab  kama ahee 

waa dhuuni raadcaysiye

Dhuunta bir laga geli 

Muxuu nooga dhiman waayeey.

 

Dhuunta Bir laga geli odayaashani maxay nooga dhiman waayeen.

[Che -Guevara]

Galbeedi,

You got Amhara pulling their hair out, and an AU staff member taking a swipe at Samantha Powers through the AU twitter handle.

I disagree with you on Ethiopia. The OLA-Tigray alliance might work, but it will devolve into civil war if TDF tries to enter Addis Abeba. Abiy is taking heavy losses, and his messaging is bad.  TPLF has better PR. 

Regarding Somalia, the opposition has been taken for fouls by Madoobe and Deni. They can't complain to Qoorqoor, and others. Qoorqoor told them they agreed on indirect elections, show up or shut up was his message to them. Laftagareen cleaned house by getting rid of the likes of Ilyas,

Just in,

Jalalabad has fallen. 

[galbeedi]

13 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

Abiy is taking heavy losses, and his messaging is bad.  TPLF has better PR. 

 

He is losing on media badly. The Amhara no longer have Ethiopian agenda in their hands. Remember, despite Abiy being close to Amhara, they were the ones who tried the first coup in Amhara region. This war will humble Amhara.

Abiy should release immediately the Oromo opposition from prison including Jawar Mohamed and Bakale Garba to avoid an Oromo uprising.

I also heard Abiy no longer meets envoys from EU and US. He delegated that task to  ministerial level.