Turkey could prevent the collapse of Afghanistan and hostile take over of Taliban.

[galbeedi]

 

'Taliban should end the occupation of Afghanistan'.

 

While on his way to Cypress this week, president Erdogan has almost threatened the Taliban forces hell bent to take the power by force. It was during the NATO summit that US president Biden asked Erdogan to station Turkish troops to protect Hamid Karzai airport and keep diplomatic access to the country. 

 

While Turkey was part of the NATO mission in Afghanistan, its soldiers never took part in any combat mission in the country. They were there mostly for logistical help. 

 

A usual , the Taliban spokesman threatened Turkey and warned the consequences of any foreign troops remaining in the country after the departure of the Americans and NATO.  Yet, despite the huge media propaganda that is anticipating the total collapse of the Afghan government, the Taliban are not invincible. Their total force is between 15,000--20,000, and even if you add the part time civilian and Bashtun tribes men mobilized from the countryside, they don't even reach 75,000 .

Like most extremist forces, they use fear and intimidation to achieve total submission of the an armed population. It is not secret that the Taliban campaign are aided by proxy forces in the region, mainly Pakistan, Russia and China. The Pakistanis are very wary of an Afghan government allied with India in which the later aids separatists in Baluchistan  and fomenting uprising among the Pakistani Bashtunes who live in the tribal north west regions of the country. In fact, the Pakistanis were always guarded against the Afghan leadership since 1947 when the Afghan king voted against the Pakistani independence at the UN after the partition with India.

 

On the other side,  it is an open secret that the Chinese had supported the Taliban campaign . I read that rather than give weapons to the Taliban which might expose the Chinese involvement, they offered money to buy weapons from Russia, and other Afghan soldiers, while Russia was open in its proxy war to defeat America and force its withdrawal.  Afghanistan has a tradition of luring cold war rivals and empires . Everyone rushes with hubris and haste and leaves the same way they entered. No wonder the call the grave yards of empires.

 

For starters, America doesn't want a Vietnam style collapse of the Afghan government and throw away all the sacrifices it did for the last 20 years. Thus, with help of Turkey, coupled with Qatar and Pakistan, it could not only keep the Taliban from overrunning Kabul, but also keep out the new cold war rivals China and Russia. Even the Taliban have realized by now that they can not take over the whole country by force without triggering a new civil war. 

 

The Taliban, despite taking over  hostile districts of the north,  their  leadership knows that they can not defeat Tajik minorities who have border access with the Tajikistan , Uzbeks and those who live in  Herat province bordering Iran. Uzbek strongman C/Rashid Dustam has already met the Turkish leadership and will pose a threat to the Taliban. After all the Taliban have no more legitimacy than anyone of those who have men and weapons to impose their on the people. Their regime might have been overthrown by US in 2001, but they were not elected then and now. Marching and imposing their will to the people couldn't work in 2021. 

 

It is the main reason Erdogan is calling the Taliban to stop occupying their Afghan brothers. Furthermore, we have witnessed the defeat of Khalifa Hifter of Libya who wanted to overthrow the UN recognized government by force. Despite its weakness, the current Afghan government could be replaced by agreed upon coalition government , Taliban included. In today's news the Taliban spokesman demanded that  the president Ashraf Ghani to step down and pave the way for a new inclusive government while accusing Ghani as war monger who called war against the Taliban during his Eidul Adha speech.

 

Mr. Shaheen said 'there must be an agreement on a new government that is acceptable to the Taliban and to other Afghans. If that happens, he insisted, “there will be no war.”  That is a totally different statement than the usual Taliban hubris of threatening everyone.

 

This spokesman had even moderated his threat against Turkey lately. He said, ' they want to have good relations with Turkey"

 

These trio of Turkey, Qatar and Pakistan could moderate the Taliban militants and create an inclusive and agreed upon government in Afghanistan. While Pakistan has tied its future economy and development with China with massive $65 billion Pakistan China Economic Corridor (CPEC) investment from China, it could cooperate with Turkey to avoid a new civil war. The soon the Taliban realize that they cannot rule Afghanistan by force without no excuse of fighting foreign occupation, the better the chances of agreeing with a coalition government. The current president,  with questionable second mandate obtained through unfair election,  must give way to a new group of leadership. 

 

To keep the threat of force on the table, Turkey could deploy their world renown drones at Bagram airport to deter any Taliban misadventure to threaten the airport. Also, unlike American pilots who are famous for shooting the wrong targets like Weddings and other civilian targets, Turkish forces had proven to exclusively target military and militant targets. Just compare between the Syrian town of Raqqa and Afrin. One is devastated to the stone age while Afrin is almost intact.

 

With Turkey taking over Afghan rebuilding, the Turkic silk road of the 13th century will be active again. With a 40 million population and huge concentration of Rare Earth Elements (REE) , Afghanistan could be the center of trade in central Asia. This nation has borders with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Pakistan and China. It seems everything goes through them.

With successful Afghan peace , Turkey could become the indispensable  nation of Asia minor and central Asia.

 

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

In the age of sophisticated drone warfare which keep casualties at minimum, if Turkiga fully enters in this, the so-called Ardeyda group will not have any chance to take any major area and will be on the defensive. 

I don't know Afgaan government's relationship with Turkiga, though. They might have deep ties with inkaarqabiyaasha Khaliijka - Sacuudiga iyo Imaaraadka - ka taliyo who will give bad advice. 

[maakhiri1]

Really delusional,  America is 100 times more powerful and more money, more technologically advanced,  better capabilities AND yet could not do anything about these guys ,what makes you think Turkey has a chance?

The only way out  and good for Afghanistan s Taliban talk and negotiate with current government and no more blood bath.

[galbeedi]

Maakhiri,

The Taliban already knows they can not rule by force. They do not want another civil war. So, they should negotiate in good faith with other Afghans and the current government to establish national government.

Certainly they are a powerful movement,  but no mistake about,  that they are based in Bashtun tribal land mostly. Remember , the Islamic court union were sweeping the land inhabited by HAG mostly, but they were rejected in Puntland, and the South west.

I am not saying Turkey could defeat them, but unless they negotiate with others,  they couldn't rule by force. Furthermore, as Erdogan mentioned, Turkey needs a UN mandate and full diplomatic cover from America to protect them from future legal problems.

 

 

 

[Tallaabo]

12 hours ago, Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar said:

In the age of sophisticated drone warfare which keep casualties at minimum, if Turkiga fully enters in this, the so-called Ardeyda group will not have any chance to take any major area and will be on the defensive. 

I don't know Afgaan government's relationship with Turkiga, though. They might have deep ties with inkaarqabiyaasha Khaliijka - Sacuudiga iyo Imaaraadka - ka taliyo who will give bad advice. 

The US had been using its advanced predator drones against those determined arday but couldn't succeed.