galbeedi Posted July 18, 2021 While we Somalis are debating about the next selection in Mogadishu or who is bribing who to select the next mayor of Borama and Burco, who might not be even able to collect the garbage from the city, the world is changing in unprecedented speed in terms development. Two or three decades ago, high speed railways, four lane highways, huge airports, and urban infrastructure were the exclusive perks of being a first world country. Railways moving people and freight were scarce in Africa and Unkown in our country. Then suddenly China shows up and opened the secrets of the world. Infrastructure projects that used to take a generation to finish , just took three or four years. Goods are moving from ports and reaching to the major cities and neighboring countries within 24 hours. According to America research data, 42% of the Chinese global infrastructure investments are: roads, railways, ports, airports, electric grids and dams. Another 42% are social infrastructure like hospitals and school while the remaining are supporting tourism and agricultural. America might still have some chances to sideline Chinese companies from taking a big share of the European market, but Africa is already gone to China and it's not coming back. Now, enough of Chinese infrastructure investment in Africa. I would like to try and explain here with my limited knowledge of how all these developments in these continents will be affecting the future of trade routes of our region and in Somalia in particular . For ages, there has been a talk of how strategic the location of Somalia is in terms of world trade routes in the Indian ocean and the Red Sea. Of course , Somalia is sitting across the Gulf of Eden, an important shipping route where thousands of ships travel in Somali waters. Furthermore, having one of the largest coasts in Africa, Somalia is sitting in a huge under the sea resource. Flights from Somalia could reach Lagos, Chandu, China , Cape town, South Africa and most of Europe with less than eight hours. Yet, all that has no value if you are not exporting anything or trading with the world. In the future, we might exploit our minerals, fisheries and undersea gas; we might export our processed meat to China and others, but if you are not connected with major trade routes in the continent of Africa and within your own region, your logistical value diminishes substantially. Also having small population means being overlooked in terms of markets. Thus, the Red Sea itself could be ignored in terms of trade volume compared to those bordering the Indian Ocean, mainly Kenya, Tanzania and the landlocked countries that border them. The disconnection between resource rich region and market and people has been consistent not only in Africa, but also in Somalia between the distance of water and livestock which creates the repetitive droughts that happen in the semi-arid regions. People brag about our ports and their value to the world trade, but if your port is not connected to major trading nations, it could be a useless lake unloading few containers with imported stable foods and Chinese merchandises. Let us look at Berbera, a port sitting empty for 30 years, and will sit empty another decade if nothing changes. In the spring of 2016, Cali Xoor Xoor, the manager of the Berbera port, came back from Dubai after signing an agreement with DP World, and proclaimed that the port will produce 20 or 30 times more than the current volume and will be a place the east African countries will shop ( Waxa ay noqon meel dadka Afrikada Bari degani ka adeegtaan). That port was transferred to the gulf just for five million dollars of lease a year. Lately we did hear about UAE port company expanding port and its tonnage. We also saw some Ethiopian delegation passing through town. Furthermore, there were news about a ship carrying goods for Ethiopia docking in Berbera. Of course, during draughts or calamities in the region, the world food program sends food shipments all over the region and Berbera is one of them. The issue here is there is no any Ethiopian contracts or agreements to use the port to import or export anything meaningful. The Berbera corridor has been in the pipelines since 2007. Not one single mile of road to connect to Wajaale has been built. Ethiopia will not enter any agreements unless the status of Somaliland changes. Period. Today the largest infrastructure projects are taking place in east Africa, Congo and west Africa. In our region the largest one is spearheaded by Kenya along with Ethiopia and South Sudan. The LAPSSET ( Lamu Port South Sudan Ethiopia Transport Corridor) project is one of the largest in the region with estimated $24 billion dollars, connecting Lamu port to Jubba, South Sudan and Ethiopia. There will be a railway connecting Juba and Addis Ababa, and a crude pipeline carrying oil from Juba to refineries in Lamu which is part of the project. According to analysts, the LAPSSET project will boost the Kenyan economy and will double its GDP. In fact, there are other major six projects underway or almost finished in Kenya. Among them Kipevu oil terminal in Mombasa, Mega dams worth billions of Kenya Shillings, New cities, and more expansion of the Gage Standard Railway that was already completed from Mombasa to Nairobi--Naivasha in 2017, and 2019 respectively. In Tanzania, the Tanzania Standard Railway is underway to connect to Rwanda and Uganda and through these two countries will connect to Burundi and Democratic of Congo as part of East African Railway. Even if you exclude Ethiopia, These projects are connecting a population of more than two hundred million people in east and central Africa. Now, what would a population of 1.5--2 million people in Somaliland sitting in this huge empty port do to reach out these markets. In fact, you can add Boosaaso too in the equation. At the moment , Boosaaso is serving the commercial needs of Puntland and central Somalia which are probably two million people in total. At the moment Boosaaso is in a deep stagnation and quagmire orchestrated by UAE with no way out. Mombasa is digging deep and targeting huge Ships carrying 19,000 containers. 200 containers of good would flood both the north west and north east regions. As logistics and shipping goods get expensive, the Red Sea market could be abandoned as a whole. I was talking to a Chinese lady who imports one time use plastic container which became very popular during Covid -19 lock downs to carry take out foods from restaurants. The lady told me that due to tripling of cost of shiping she might abandon the business for good. A container that costed $4000 to transport from China to northern Canada had become $11,000 dollars due to the backlog . Another importer told me that a shipping container carrying dry food, spices and other foods imported from China has reached $18,000. Not only due to backlogs, but also, the United States is targeting China's economy by making shipping very expensive due to high insurance rates and other costs. In order to reduce costs , major shipping companies are using large ships that could carry thousands of containers. Berbera port at the moment is serving 1.5 million in Somaliland and sometimes aid organizations use to ship food for Ethiopia and the region. There are some stable food and merchandise shipments for the Somali region of Ethiopia which doesn't have major cities, population or any meaningful purchasing power. When a ship carrying food to Ethiopia docks to the port, we all hear the enthusiasm and false propaganda of the ruling class and their supporters as hitting a gold, but the reality is totally different. Without the Ethiopian market, Berbera has no value in terms of trade. The less than two million people in Somaliland could be overwhelmed by a single ship with 300 containers. By the time these huge infrastructures are finished in our region, no one will need these clan run ports. Why I am saying about clans? because clans do not think big or plan for the future. Couple of million dollars would satisfy their small greedy and hungry stomach. Last year, according to former minister of fisheries of Somalia, rather than earn hundreds of millions of dollars through establishing fish processing factories or investing in local fishermen, the Puntland leaders took just a couple of million dollars from a Thai based renegade fishing trawlers who were banned across the world. No one can tell us if that money went to the regional treasuries or in the pockets of the leader. People and nation-oriented leaders try to lift their people out of poverty and exploit their resources for the greater good. In Djibouti, Omar Gheelle is trying to steal as much business as possible from Somali Republic and fragmented regions. He built a port which exclusively exports livestock from Ethiopia and Somaliland to the gulf. Yet, Just like other Somalis in the region, he doesn't have the capacity to diversify the economy like building fishing factories or processing the meat and export outside the gulf region. . As Mombasa grows, and Massawa and Assab of Eritrea join in the business, Djibouti itself which has one single customer --Ethiopia---will suffer. An integrated trade and economy of the horn of Africa : Somalia, Ethiopia , Eritrea and Djibouti with almost 140 million people could lift millions out of poverty and lead to new possibilities. Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed had proposed economic integration of the region two years ago, but many in Somalia and Ethiopia considered the idea to be far-fetched and impossible to achieve. Many Somalis wary of Ethiopian huge population and their constant interference of Somalia affairs since 1991, rejected it completely. Besides, infrastructure building is a foreign thing to most Somalis. It is also some of the main issues that put Abiy Ahmed in hot waters in the region. This region of the horn which is famous for wars, conflicts and famine had never seen any minor trade agreements or any long-term stability to talk business and trade across their borders let alone economic integration. Even in one of his speeches, Abiy said that the horn of Africa has half of the population of United States, and we shouldn't be begging the gulf nations for help. That preacher , Abiy , should have kept his mouth and worked slowly and carefully by avoiding any big moves including wars. So, what are the economists and social scientists in Hargeisa are doing to earn some business and change the staus quo? Well, first of all, there are no economists, thinkers or even modest intellectuals in Hargeisa today. Those who had some expertise had either retired or cannot even see beyond the current quagmire. There might be some who could understand the dire economic situations they are in , but no one would listen even if they offer solutions . Proff. Ahmed Samatar might hold court in Hargeisa during his brief visits and explain about inter-connectivity of world trade , but he can bark as much as he wants and will be dismissed quickly. Who will tell them that you have to be a nation state to get small share of the 100 trillion economies of the world. In Hargeisa, old farts like C/laahi Jawaan, who is useless in 21 century, or high school dropouts like Mohamuud Hashi are holding court today. Sometimes, a couple enterprising guys from the diaspora would bring delegates from Gunnie, Singapore or Cameroon and sell false hopes to the man secluded in Morgans house. Wafti ka socda Singapore oo Berbera yimid. Yet, despite the isolation and poverty, the Hargeisa crowd even went further and increased the misery of the people by pocking the eyes of the biggest economy in the world--China. They confronted China by trying to recognize Taiwan. Is this the advice of couple of Nairobi based American neocons who might write a glowing peace in the foreign journals, or a scheme to make a buck from another amateur masquerading as an expert. It was Meles Zanawi who took Ahmed Siilaanyo to Beijing few years ago in order to convince the Chinese to invest the gas fields in the Somali region and build pipelines to Berbera for export. That was ages ago. Today, Ethiopia and China had agreed to build the pipeline to Djibouti which is almost 1200 km compared to the Berbera route which is 400 km less than the Djibouti one. Who knows , Chinese businesses might even blacklist the port from their ships. There is no one single major project in the horn that doesn't involve China, yet the backward-looking leadership in Hargeisa has decided to fight the Asian dragon. For what in exchange? nothing. The choice is simple. You either integrate your economy , trade and people or you remain poor for another 30 years. Yes, the EU and the NGO's will throw few crumbs for the elite in Hargeisa which is enough for the few connected to prolong the misery, but life changing infrastructure and big trade agreements will not happen in these Somali enclaves trying to be big fish in a small pound. Who is going to sign five billion dollars railway or port to a small-time governor? ? Waakan Alah ha naxariistee abwaankii abwaanada Hassan Shiekh Muumin oo ka hadlaya Soomalida kala socota. This is 1993 in , the great composer is talking to the delegates in Borama during the reconciliation 'Shir'. Magacya badanaa bisadu ma Soomaaliba. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Saalax Posted July 19, 2021 On 7/18/2021 at 6:18 PM, galbeedi said: By the time these huge infrastructures are finished in our region, no one will need these clan run ports. Why I am saying about clans? because clans do not think big or plan for the future. Couple of million dollars would satisfy their small greedy and hungry stomach. Last year, according to former minister of fisheries of Somalia, rather than earn hundreds of millions of dollars through establishing fish processing factories or investing in local fishermen, the Puntland leaders took just a couple of million dollars from a Thai based renegade fishing trawlers who were banned across the world. No one can tell us if that money went to the regional treasuries or in the pockets of the leader. People and nation-oriented leaders try to lift their people out of poverty and exploit their resources for the greater good. Very true but the old guard aka short term thinkers of Somalis ain't going to live forever. Majority of them will be dead by 2030. So no one knows truly what the future holds, there could be more outside thinkers generation taking over. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Xaaji Xunjuf Posted July 19, 2021 Very childish and irresponsible of you galbeedi to call the Somaliland presidential Palace moorgensHouse it was the seat of the governor build by the tax of the people. And you calling it a warlords House. Just shows your deep hatret for Somaliland. I hope the bunker makes u happy. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
