Next Phase of Ethiopia's Civil War: Tigray vs Amhara

[Che -Guevara]

Arafaat,

Anything is possible, but I honestly believe Somalis will not ever get a fair share within Ethiopia. I do appreciate the risks involving all scenarios, and the fact Somalis might still be screwed.

On another note, Abiy and his Amhara have launched an all fronts attack. They are throwing everything at Tigray.

 

 

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Arafaat]

4 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

Arafaat,

Anything is possible, but I honestly believe Somalis will not ever get a fair share within Ethiopia. I do appreciate the risks involving all scenarios, and the fact Somalis might still be screwed.

On another note, Abiy and his Amhara have launched an all fronts attack. They are throwing everything at Tigray.

 

 

 

Even if the federal government wins this battle against the Tigray forces, the political will of those forces vying for self-determination and decentralization at local level will remain, maybe not waging wars and conquering lands as the Tigray did. And nor sure if the Oromo opposition are capable to take such a political role, but eventually Abiy will have to negotiate a settlement m to keep Ethiopia together. 

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[galbeedi]

The TPLF had rejected the Turkish deal to negotiate ans accept next five years of Abiy Ahmed rule. In this scenario history will not repeat again. The Wayane had defeated Mengistu in 1991 after ridding the Eritrean Peoples Liberation  Front caravan which was the most formidable independent rebel movement in Africa.

With all their weapons, they could not hold the Affar territory, and soon they will vacate the Amhara land due to overwhelming federal force. Of all people, the TPLF should know better than a 100 million poor Ethiopia could easily recruit millions by just paying small living salary and food. Even if the ration of the casualty is 10 to one, Tigray loses. When you see the twitter explode the Famine hashtag I knew the TPLF is in trouble. Sanctions from the US will not save them. 

Having said that, Abiy will eventually negotiate , but first he want to decimate the TPLF fighting forces and even bomb Makele. Yet Somalis from Hargeisa to Jigjiga have hopes of their overlords coming back. Folks, that ain't gonna happen/

Dhag Dheer dhimatoo dhulkii waa nabad.

 

 

[Che -Guevara]

Galbeedi,

The problem with Ethiopia is one despot changes another from Menelik to Zenawi. Whether TPLF is defeated or not, PP has become the new EPRDF. It is actually more centralized than EPRDF. The best outcome is a negotiated settlement that is truly democratic, one that ensures the linguistic, cultural, economic, and political rights of all nations. 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Khadafi]

On 10/15/2021 at 4:01 AM, galbeedi said:

The TPLF had rejected the Turkish deal to negotiate ans accept next five years of Abiy Ahmed rule. In this scenario history will not repeat again. The Wayane had defeated Mengistu in 1991 after ridding the Eritrean Peoples Liberation  Front caravan which was the most formidable independent rebel movement in Africa.

With all their weapons, they could not hold the Affar territory, and soon they will vacate the Amhara land due to overwhelming federal force. Of all people, the TPLF should know better than a 100 million poor Ethiopia could easily recruit millions by just paying small living salary and food. Even if the ration of the casualty is 10 to one, Tigray loses. When you see the twitter explode the Famine hashtag I knew the TPLF is in trouble. Sanctions from the US will not save them. 

Having said that, Abiy will eventually negotiate , but first he want to decimate the TPLF fighting forces and even bomb Makele. Yet Somalis from Hargeisa to Jigjiga have hopes of their overlords coming back. Folks, that ain't gonna happen/

Dhag Dheer dhimatoo dhulkii waa nabad.

 

 

Galbeedi is completely true what he says about who defeated mengistu, the best well trained army in Africa. The EPLF succsesfully defeated 10 Ethiopian offensives and when Communism collapsed so did the aid for the Ethiopian army. It was the EPLF that sent thousands of its soldiers to cut the vital supply roads addis to Massawa. They did so and in 1990 over 100 000 amhara soldiers were cut off. Once the supplies had ran out every general fled and so did the soldiers. The whole front collapsed and the EPLF  captured Massawa and then Asmara.  That had a shocking  knocking of event and what many do not know is that the EPLF sent further thousands of soldiers to the TPLF to  capture Addis abeba.

The gaalada saved Ethiopia by the deal in the UK.   The TPLF today are landlocked and its hard to replay the scenario of the 80-ties. Galbeedi what you do not have in your equation is that the TPLF masterminded the flooding of vast amounds of weapons into Ethiopia.  According to a source of mine  the tons of weapons the TPLF flooded freely into Ethiopia even made the weapons dealers in Mogadishu bankrupt. A brand new chinese made kalash for 50 dollars?.   Why did they do that?

They wanted to incite the the oromos, the somalis. The oromos are know those who can determine of Ethiopia survives or dies.  All police stations in Oromiya have been taken over by the OLF and the OLF have now become lawfull regional army, a far cry from its rougue terrorist label. If the oromos see the writing on the wall and realise that Abey is nothing then a Amhara using a oromo mask that could spell the end  and be the victory of Ethiopia.  The alliance between the OLF-W and TPLF was a gamechanger. Even though the OLF do not want admit it and keep caling OLF-W as splinter group  many signs point to that they want eat with both hands. 

 

As for us, Soomaalida need a take step back and realize that their is no diffirence between amxaaro and tigrayans, they are both abyssinians and they have allways in history wrestled control with each other.  The dissolvement of an Empire built upon blood of Somalis, and cutting of the breats of muslim oromo women and  forcing millions of jeberti muslims in Tigray to convert to Christianity is an Empire that needs to dissolve. A peacefull disolvement  would be the perfect scenario for a peacefull horn of Africa. Lets see if the oromos are wise and united.  Its sad to see how somalis have degenerated so much that they sent somali lads to die for amxaaro, YAAB!

[Che -Guevara]

Khadafi,

 

[Khadafi]

59 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

Khadafi,

 

Che,  As I said before, the oromos are now those who can either make peacefull dissulution of the amxaara empire that  the blood thirsty  religous extremist Menelik created. But with all the good PR-pictures above and all the hum-bug of the OLF they have  still not been able to capture a single regional capital. The OLF had a strong presence among the Boran oromos in moyaale and nageele, the bordear areas with kenya, Still no military activity have been reported in that area They have not been able capture the regional capital city of boran oromos nagele.  Even the hard-core seperatists, those who actually refused to be assimilated, the hararge oromos, those who support Jawar,. Its splinter group from the OLF , the Islamic liberation front of Oromiya founded  by the late Sheekh Cabdulkarim Ibraahim Xaamid Alle ha u naxariisto (I think he died a couple of years ago), a scholar and a fighter trained in the mogadishu in the 70-ties and  have been unable to conduct any major military activites, Hararge and cut of the infamous A10 highway to Addis Abeba. 

Their is no national Ethiopian army, indeed all tigrayan colonels and officers were purged. What remains are loyal amhara or  loyal  neftegna oromos (oromo la amxaareeyay) that are loyal to the abyssinian caste system and lordship. Mainly a  amhara centric state.  If those pictures are true and OLF-W  are  making rapid progress in Shew a it would have been noticed by the media.

Any activity in Shewa would have noticed if they would have cut away the main high way from Oromiya west to Addis.  Their are 4 main high ways the lead to the capital and all of these highways are in Oromiya and they have not been able to  make a single move. Either the Oromos  are throwing their support for the neftegna Oromo of Caabey-Amxaaro or they  are simply not cordinated and efficent in war as the TPLF.

Take for a example jimma,  they have not even been able to capture that city despite that all soldiers belonging to the former regime ran off and qeero youth replaced them as policemen.  According to an Oromo friend of mine who I called in order get my regular dose on whats actyally happening from an oromo perspective.  Everyone is armed and their is no law and order, and that by all definition is a civil war. The vast arms depots and have been plundered and the TPLF intentional distrbution of vast tones of weapons to the south have made the whole south a no mans land, yet we hear no OLF-W claim of capturing a regional province capital.

Those who can spell the end for dying amxara empire are the shewan oromos of OLF-W. The only thing that they need to do is cut these 4 main roads that lead in to Addis Abeba. Attacking lorry tracks by night in combat groups by 10 along the road using anti-tank guided missiles or more simple weapons is all that it takes to freeze Addis Abeba and take the war to the capital.  Yet they are unable to do this. Disrupting supply routes in a war is a key condition for victory and thats how the TPLF took the whole world by suprise when they cut of Mekelle from Addis Abeba and every soldier ran off. Amxaaro will never fight. The only time they fought was 2 times, during the oromo migrations and during the war of Axmed Gurey. They lost both times.  

I dont know, but we need to understand the oromo psyche, war maxay rabaan? Siiba oromoda gaalada eh ee galbeedka? Mey dagaalaman? Thats a political question that I cant answer, maybe you or galbeedi have more info. What the end game with the oromos and why on earth are they supporting a Caabey Amxaaro using a oromo mask while directing amxaaro policies?  Kiina aaway?  Intuu dadka diyaarin lahaay kulahaa ciidamo soomali aan u diraa in ey difaacan amxaaro. 

No offence ,  But our dear friends Abtigiis mental health needs to be checked as  he and farmaajo has entered in history as Somali leaders sending somali lads dying for an amxaaro centric Itoobiya. Abtigiis  is a Somali nationalist, that is undeniable but his personal vendetta against the TPLF should not dictate the greater good for soomalida.  Caabey Amxaaro is a magician by his wods, giving a few seats to Somalis "as if they have been included" does not erase the 100 years of oppression since 1884. Every weak Ethiopian  ruler used to keep his enemies close, Xayle Selassie while he was weak had a eritrean PM. Once he had crushed all political opponents he forced eretiteriyaa into his amxaro centric world. Caabey Amxaaro did the same, Lemma, Jawar, everyone, was kept close untill he had his amxaaro backing. He then stabbed them in the back. Thats a warning to Abtigiis. 

 

 

[Che -Guevara]

Khadafi,

The problem with Oromo is the lack of organization, military depth, and leadership. They have the manpower and even the weapons, but all that means is nothing if one can't employ their resources properly. Having said that, they do control vast rural areas, and their fighting force is becoming experienced and more efficient.

[Che -Guevara]

Khadafi, Galbeedi,

It looks like Abiy/Amhara's current offensive is failing too. TDF might actually link up with OLA as they push deeper into Amhara region.

 

[galbeedi]

I think both Khdaafi and Che have raised good questions.

Brother Khadaafi, I really appreciate your reality check about the Abyssinian empire built on the blood of those in southern Ethiopia mostly Oromo and Somali. THe ruthless empire had used modern guns provided by the European colonials which made the highlanders control the vast fertile land of EThiopia. 

On 10/19/2021 at 2:55 AM, Khadafi said:

Soomaalida need a take step back and realize that their is no diffirence between amxaaro and tigrayans, they are both abyssinians and they have allways in history wrestled control with each other.  The dissolvement of an Empire built upon blood of Somalis, and cutting of the breats of muslim oromo women and  forcing millions of jeberti muslims in Tigray to convert to Christianity is an Empire that needs to dissolve

Certainly these are the words of Somalis who understand and know the history of the 'back ward empire'. Unlike those who are nostalgic of the TPLF for tribal reasons, your's is a reality assessment of Ethiopia.

On the issue of the OLFW, I don't expect them to overthrow Abiy at the moment. As you mentioned they have plenty of opportunity to isolate and endanger Addis Ababa, yet they are not causing any serious trouble. 

 

While the Oromo are united in their liberation regardless of geographical and religious background, any armed revolution to change Ethiopia has to come from Hararghe, Bale and Arsi. The Shawan Oromo surrounding the capital are not any Amharazied Oromo , but also mostly cosmopolitan who are always close to those in power. They share a lot with Amhara both culturally and geographically. I have some acquaintances of the Addis area Oromos and they totally reject any revolution that might wreck Ethiopia. THe most serious armed group among the OLF are in Wlelega in western Oromia. The capital Jima is the home of Abiy Ahmed, but they are far from the power centers of Ethiopia. So, the Shawan Oromo are probably at home with Amharized Abiy in charge and will not challenge one of their own.

 

The Muslim Oromo majority (Hararghe, Bale, Arsi, and Boran ) can't afford to confront  Abiy or Ethiopia at the moment because they could be labeled as Islamic terrorist which would give Amhara and others the license to create a sectarian war among the Oromo. I have met in Addis some Oromo businessmen and they told me that their main goal is to build their communities and support Abiy in order to grow. These are where the Ethiopian economic growth and regional trade are excepted. Also, the Oromo people in general have good leaders at the moment who do not seek political expediency or short term gains . It seems they lhave learned a hard lesson from the actions of the hungry tribal leaders of Somalia. Most Oromos today  will not shed tears for the TPLF. After Tigray is weakened, the Amhara will be orphans among the nine ethnic groups of Ethiopia.

That is why I am not expecting any serious challenge to unseat Abiy from the Oromo. Yet, when I see the actions of the Ethiopian military distributing weapons to tribes (ethnics) , I see the future danger of Ethiopia disintegrating. 

For the Somali region, I don't see any improvement or progress in that region. Mustafe Cagjar is presiding a weak and corrupt tribal entity like any other Somali regional government, probably similar to Jubbaland or Hirshabeele. Benshenguli, Afar and others have more powers within Ethiopia than the Somali region. 

One thing the election has shown is Ethiopia is centralized and will remain centralized. The Ethiopian people in general, despite their ethnic nationalism, still prefer a functioning federal state, national currency and an airline that connects them to the world.

Personally, I don't see an Ethiopian disintegration in the short term. In fact, the Somali experience of fake states and tribal entities might be a good window to the people of the region for what to avoid. Somalis don't read foreign media, but everyone from Uganda to Ethiopia, Kenya and Libya tells their citizens to be careful of their country becoming another Somalia.