Next Phase of Ethiopia's Civil War: Tigray vs Amhara

[maakhiri1]

It looks they are going through Ethiopian army like butter 

What is going on?

The Somalis who went from Killinga, have no chance 

[Che -Guevara]

Maakhiri,

Apparently some of the ethnic forces that were deployed simply surrendered. Many feel it is not their fight. I don't know what the Somalis would do, but I wouldn't spill my blood for Amharas. I doubt the Tigrayans are not as powerful as they say, but they have momentum on their side, and literally, they are fighting for survival.

They inflict big damage on the Ethiopian army which is very demoralized. 

[fais]

Are they trying to cut off the access to the port in Djibouti?

[fais]

1 hour ago, fais said:

Are they trying to cut off the access to the port in Djibouti?

That seems to be the plan..

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Arafaat]

On 7/18/2021 at 4:48 AM, Che -Guevara said:

ARAFAAT,

In 91, the Yugoslav army along with Serbian volunteers attacked and destroyed a newly formed Croatian National Guards which Belgrade considered as paramilitary militias. Once the national army sought assistance from the Serbians, it is credibility was nosedived. The Croatians were initially crushed, but the defeat did not stop other nationalities from forming their own paramilitary forces and declare independence.

Of course, no two countries are similar in politics and conflicts, but I do believe the center in Addis Ababa has been weakened and the periphery was emboldened. The Amharas were openly threatening Abiy if he does not send ENDF. which is not as strong as it once was.

 

I agree with your analysis that the centre has  weakened, but this process was already happening even before Abiy came to power with the regions increasingly being emboldened. With the centre instigating the current war, and the next battles being fought between the regions it could easily lead to a reversed weakening of the regions, and with the centre gaining again political space to play a central role in accommodating the regions with the federal process and facilitating a process of pacification and uniting for a common purpose of national identification.

War is not always a failure of politics, but sometimes its the continuation of politics. 

[Arafaat]

On 7/19/2021 at 6:35 PM, Che -Guevara said:

 

So next to the Amhara’s, we can now assume now that the Afar will be as committed to go to war. This will be a bloody war between the regions, the Ethiopian National Army just has just to ensure that no particular region gets the overhand and comes as out as victor, its the only way for Ethiopian State to survive in longevity. 

[galbeedi]

17 hours ago, fais said:

Are they trying to cut off the access to the port in Djibouti?

Not only the highway but also instigate the Affar to curve out their own country. In fact, In all the regions, the Affar has the best chance to get a sea access and even create their own country. The southern tip of Eritrea along the coastal region  is 100% Affar. Besides, the TPLF was the first entity to ever recognize an Affar Territory in Ethiopia. There are Affar separatist aligned with TPLF. The Affar are active in northern Djibouti already.

The philosopher, Allah ha u Naxatiiste, Dr. Omar Raabe had created a map in 2002. In that futuristic map, The Somali region and half of Djibouti will join the Somali republic, Oromo will have a state and the Amhara and Tigray join in one scenario and separate in another,   while the Affar will curve land both from Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea. 

The TPLF is counting on others to weaken Ethiopia.

Abiy is flowing the tribal moves of Somalia in 1991 where soldiers abandoned their position on behalf of the tribes.

[maakhiri1]

The Affar people have to raise up and defend their people, They must hold and fight this merciless TPLF. It is eveybody for himself,  the govemrent can not protect them.

[maakhiri1]

is OROMO group in Canada  hacked,  or for real.

 

[maakhiri1]

Fighting in Ethiopia's Afar forces 54,000 people to flee, official says

WWW.REUTERS.COM

---

Attacks by Tigrayan fighters in Ethiopia's Afar region have forced over 54,000 people from their homes, an official said on Thursday, and...

 

[galbeedi]

I think the TPLF has its sight on the Djibouti-Ethiopia corridor. The TPLF  already took over couple of districts. 

Just like the former Derg of Mengistu, Abiy is throwing to the fire untrained Oromo and other militia who have law moral to fight the Tigray rebels.

Where is the Ethiopian army?. It seems all the special forces and trained members were Tigray. Oromo Liberation Front in the west are also very active. The TPLF so far had ignored to go west to the Sudanese border, maybe they want to divert most Ethiopian forces to the east and then move there after.

 

[Arafaat]

On 7/21/2021 at 1:43 PM, fais said:

That seems to be the plan..

 

The Railroad is not in the Afar region. Maybe they are trying to create their own corridor?

 

 

 

 

[maakhiri1]

Yes they going for life line to Djibouti,  if they get to that , no food, no fuel, it is game over.

These guys  ruled Ethiopia  30 years and know ts weakness 

[Che -Guevara]