Next Phase of Ethiopia's Civil War: Tigray vs Amhara

[Che -Guevara]

This is officially a tribal war

 

[Che -Guevara]

Abiy says he will mobilize one million young people. 

[Che -Guevara]

Dhageyso wareysiga Wasiirka Warfaafinta Ismaamulka Soomaalida

WWW.VOASOMALI.COM

---

English news from the Voice of America. VOA news provides coverage from around the world and learning English lessons from VOA Special English.

Interview with Somali region Minister of Information

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Arafaat]

21 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

 

Interesting timing to release a thousand POW soldiers. Could this be intended to relieve some of the hightened tribal tensions and involvement through goodwill? 

[Che -Guevara]

1 hour ago, Arafaat said:

Interesting timing to release a thousand POW soldiers. Could this be intended to relieve some of the hightened tribal tensions and involvement through goodwill? 

It is a pragmatic thing to do. It is hard to feed that many people considering they are low on resources themselves. And it's good PR as well

[Arafaat]

21 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

This is officially a tribal war

Its not a purely Tribal war such as in South-Sudan, where the conflict would have no real political consequences irrelevant of which tribe came on top. Ethiopia’s war and its outcome will have severe consequences for the political ideologies of the State. Look at the two possible scenarios of this war; 

1) The mighty and powerful Tigray forces are completely beaten, which will mean equally the downfall  and demise of the propagated ideology of ethnic politics and ethnic pride. As  the TPLF downfall wil work deterrent for other tribes, and they would not dare to walk the same path and stand up against the State and put it’s ethnic pride and power above the state’s power, as it will mean complete destruction by the centre and all other regions together. 

2) The TPLF prevails to hold ground against the others tribes and central government, which will be regarded by other tribes that ethnic pride and power does pay off and each tribe will try to fight for its territorial claims, pride and propagate and eject equally their political ideologies and pride in to centre, which will mean further power and leverage for the ethnic regions and states against the centre and against Abiys propagated uniformity, and will fuel for competition for another ethnic group with it’s ethnic political ideology to prevail over the others. 

[maakhiri1]

1 hour ago, Arafaat said:

 

2) The TPLF prevails to hold ground against the others tribes and central government, which will be regarded by other tribes that ethnic pride and power does pay off and each tribe will try to fight for its territorial claims, pride and propagate and eject equally their political ideologies and pride in to centre, which will mean further power and leverage for the ethnic regions and states against the centre and against Abiys propagated uniformity, and will fuel for competition for another ethnic group with it’s ethnic political ideology to prevail over the others. 

Option 2 , looks soo much like Somalia 

[Che -Guevara]

ARAFAAT,

In 91, the Yugoslav army along with Serbian volunteers attacked and destroyed a newly formed Croatian National Guards which Belgrade considered as paramilitary militias. Once the national army sought assistance from the Serbians, it is credibility was nosedived. The Croatians were initially crushed, but the defeat did not stop other nationalities from forming their own paramilitary forces and declare independence.

Of course, no two countries are similar in politics and conflicts, but I do believe the center in Addis Ababa has been weakened and the periphery was emboldened. The Amharas were openly threatening Abiy if he does not send ENDF. which is not as strong as it once was.

 

[galbeedi]

Abiy and his actions could dismantle Ethiopia for good. his options are narrowing as time passes. He had choices bust wasted.

With the help of Eritrea he crushed the TPLF and they retreated to the mountains. Of course there was resistance and hit and run guerrilla warfare , but those rebel couldn't be sustained that long. How long one can last in the mountains with zero supply?In 1991, it was EPLF of Eritrea which routed the main Derg army and helped TPLF march to Addis. He could have ignored and insisted to negotiate only on with disarmed TPLF.

The moment he accepted to withdraw the army from Tigray , Abiy lost the advantage. How could you accept the army to leave its own country. 

Now he even went further and allowed tribes to arm themselves and fight among them while he is watching from the distance. Armed tribes and ethnics means anarchy and instability.

Furthermore, the TPLF are masters of propaganda. Credible reports say that when they attacked the northern command in November 4 2020, while soldiers were sleep, they killed many officers and took thousands of soldiers  as prisoners . Someof them fought and escaped to Eritrea , but others were marched to the mountains and used as human shield. It is a plausible explanation, otherwise how can Ethiopia abandon thousands of soldiers to be captured. If the TPLF is telling the truth and these soldiers were captured after they were defeated in a battle, them Amhara or other demoralized militia couldn't stop the desperate Wayaane.

Mustafe Cagjar is sending about a thousand Somalis Liyuu police to the front to defend Amhara. Certainly we are living in strange times when Somali soldiers are dispatched to die for the Amhara.

The Somali Liyu police are not stupid, and I hope they will depose Mustafe Axmaar first before dying in southern Tigray.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]