Next Phase of Ethiopia's Civil War: Tigray vs Amhara

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[galbeedi]

Turkey is right. 

attack drones didn't come yet to Ethiopia, but the reconnaissance  drones have multiple use including civilian info gathering.

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[maakhiri1]

Like in Afghanistan,  no will to fight by Ethiopian army

[galbeedi]

56 minutes ago, maakhiri1 said:

Like in Afghanistan,  no will to fight by Ethiopian army

Yet, the Afar fighters had cleared the Tigray forces from their region. TPLF said, they have withdrawn instead. This Afar nomads had achieved what the Amhara couldn't do. 

Dhaawacii nTigreega qaar bey bireeyeen oo gawraceen.

THree days ago, a delegation from the Amhara region brought 100 million Ethiopian Bir to Afar to help the people displaced by the war last month.

[Che -Guevara]

 

[galbeedi]

The American regime change campaign to unseat Abiy Ahmed waged through the media and human right organizations had failed miserably. This was a full frontal war from threats of sanctions to withholding aid and unleashing Sudan, Egypt, and others.

Abiy decided to ignore the Americans and exposed the looting of aid trucks by the TPLF , their massacre and killing of Afar and  Amhara civilians. He refused to meat both Samantha power and the horn Africa envoy. 

Folks, the tide had turned. Abiy can not enter in to negotiations until the second round of the election concludes. Also, for talks to start the new Ethiopian parliament has to reverse their designation of tPLF as a terrorist organization, and that won't happen until late October or November.

Now the TPLF is begging for peace. 

 

[Arafaat]

9 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

 

Che, bal arintan noo fasir wadiga baryahan laangaabyada Xabashida sacabka u tumiyee? 

[Khadafi]

On 9/19/2021 at 2:32 AM, galbeedi said:

The American regime change campaign to unseat Abiy Ahmed waged through the media and human right organizations had failed miserably. This was a full frontal war from threats of sanctions to withholding aid and unleashing Sudan, Egypt, and others.

Abiy decided to ignore the Americans and exposed the looting of aid trucks by the TPLF , their massacre and killing of Afar and  Amhara civilians. He refused to meat both Samantha power and the horn Africa envoy. 

Folks, the tide had turned. Abiy can not enter in to negotiations until the second round of the election concludes. Also, for talks to start the new Ethiopian parliament has to reverse their designation of tPLF as a terrorist organization, and that won't happen until late October or November.

Now the TPLF is begging for peace. 

 

Galbeedi, Gartay and agreed But you I think that you have not been updated with facts on the grounds that  have virtually changed in a minute. The tide and the clock is on Caabey-Amxaaro and the likes of neftegnas (armed assimilated amhara oriented oromo, or simply amhara). The read Sea front, and afar group that advocated pan-afarism and who were created by the TPLF and to conduct an insurgency in Assab and denkalia-saho lands of Eritrea are now in direkt talks with the TPLF.

I dont you remeber when in 1978 Suldan Cali Mireh of the afars completely destroyed the supplyroute for the Derg.  During those times, The WSLF distributed arms and 0dymamites and they simply destroyed the railtrack evert 10 mile (100)-  See the news my friiend, the railtrack built china, and chinese workers have been destroyed, the regime in Addis having diffuculties in using the Djabouti-Adddis rail way. We tend to think the cafars as a united ethnic group but their are those who dedicated to pan-afarism as we adhere to pan-somalism. 

The current regional president of the cafarta is a puppet, enelected just like Abtigis. He and the somali regional leaders are "colonial governors" and the damning bittre truth to this is while Abyssinia, Amhara region and Shew, no Oromiya were voting, the colonized lowlands and muslim majority somali region and cafarta region were exkluded? why? A well known Somali journalist said what is it so diffirent from Cabdi Iley and Abtigis if they are both chosen as a colonial adminstrator when we as somalis in soomaligalbeed can not even conduct an election.

Abey Ahmed lost the war when Mekelle was taken, 90 %of Ethiopias hardware was in Mekelle under the  the controll of TPLF, They hid thousands of tow missiles. Noteside here, Remeber when the Syrian rebels united under a big umbrella 2015  and Saudi-qatari export of tow-missiles caused Idlib to fall and the syrians rebels were at the gates of Lataqya,. The Regime in damascus were panicking and it was a question when they would fall, lattaqiya home ofthe alawites. 

Russia then intervened but the offical russian grievance was that the fight not fair becouse sophisticated american weapons were bering used. The tplf officals were  made in into  minced meat , during this time  of supplyroad to mekelle by cut off,. A tigrayan jabarti at the mosque showed me how they managed to cut of the route.

Thousands 40-a team were dotted  hidden in the mountains alongst the road with tow missiles. He showed how a petrol tanker was easily destroyed. How a tanks, Techniko everything was being destroyed by these tow-missiles.  When  reinforcement could not  come. The Somalis who hade no idea what he was doing  in Mekelle together with the oromos were the first to surrender when they saw their commanders fleeing. Caabey Amxaaro thought by capturing mekelle the war would be declared a done deal.  TPLF  professonal lobby groups were very effective in maximasing the tragedy. Compare that to the ogaden insurrection in 

The latest alliance between Oromo Liberation army (military front group) for the OLF( they deny it but everyone knows it is their "informal" army, alliance between them and the TPLF was devastating for Cabeey Ahmed . The OLF have managed to something that the TPLF can not do. They themselves cut the supply route from amhara region and addis. The Bahridahr road.

Caabey Axmed failed when he did not submit to the oromo qeero masses. So galbeedi, facts on the ground, are not good for Cabeey. if the OLA gaines huge these tow missilesm its game ovwer.  The Amhara region is now freely without a cost armying amhara civilians, free kalashnikovs, this policy have been caused sicir barar in Bakaaraha supermarket.

 

In conclusion. Caabey Axmed, weather he likes it or not, The withdrawal of eritrean troops and the continuing losses and the destruction of the railroad is sending shockwaves to amhara dominated Addis abeba. Empty shelves are in the shops.

1- The TPLF is asking for ceasefire and talks via third party, the us,, they demand that all the kilil to join "the ethippian peace-talks" push for article 39, If cabeey Ahmed says no and the cash stipped nation gets sacntions he loses. If agrees he looses and the break up of Ethiopia will be negotiated.

2- In xamar, when we see a bizarre thing we say "maandhow nin aannan yaabin ayaa yaabay"  That is the bizarre reality of Soomali-galbeed, who would in a million years would think a Somali leader would praise meneleik in a conferance held in the heartlands of Amhara, Bahridahr. Then when a civil war breaks out sends Soomali maxamed to die for amxaaro,. Bizarre! But the colonial  stooge has to prove withe blood of somali youngsters that is loyal to caabey amxaaro or Abey neftegna.

 

 

[Che -Guevara]

On 9/19/2021 at 3:04 AM, Arafaat said:

Che, bal arintan noo fasir wadiga baryahan laangaabyada Xabashida sacabka u tumiyee? 

Arafaat, I have no race in this horse. I only care about how it affects Somalis. I reason a prolonged conflict in Ethiopia will result in two things, a balkanized Ethiopia or Ethiopia with a weak central government. A strong Ethiopian state has always been, is now, and will always be a threat to Somalis. It does not matter if it is Oromo, Amhara, Tigray, or Afar running the state.

Let the highlanders fight, they balkanize Ethiopia or agree on a weak federation.

[maakhiri1]

^Good point,  objective reporting,  that is all and how it will affects Somalis. 

Keep doing it

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Arafaat]

On 9/22/2021 at 1:33 AM, Che -Guevara said:

Arafaat, I have no race in this horse. I only care about how it affects Somalis. I reason a prolonged conflict in Ethiopia will result in two things, a balkanized Ethiopia or Ethiopia with a weak central government. A strong Ethiopian state has always been, is now, and will always be a threat to Somalis. It does not matter if it is Oromo, Amhara, Tigray, or Afar running the state.

Let the highlanders fight, they balkanize Ethiopia or agree on a weak federation.

A prolonged conflict in other Ethiopian regions and weakened centre would not necessarily stop at the regional or ethnic borders, and could lead to fragmentations and balkanisations even with the Somali’s region. Secondly, TPLF and Federal government could still come to an agreement without the Somali’s benefitting from any potential outcome. 

There are other ways for the Somali’s to get more governing space, autonomy and equitable share of resources from the centre, with less risk of bloodshed and instability for the Somali region and neighboring ethnic states, while ensuring that the Somali interest are not excluded from any future arrangement.