Next Phase of Ethiopia's Civil War: Tigray vs Amhara

[Che -Guevara]

5 hours ago, Arafaat said:

That’s the only real option he has to strengthen the centre against empowered and muscle flexing regions. Wuu isku jabiniya gobolada, with the centre coming out as the neutral arbiter. I don’t think any region will dare to take any more unilateral actions once the Tigray militants is dealt with. 

At this point, that seems too optimistic. More likely a scenario is he will be overthrown by whatever is left of the military.

[Dalmar1]

On 7/26/2021 at 11:12 PM, Che -Guevara said:

Somalis cut off Djibouti-Addis rail after Afars attacked Somali villages in Sitti. The main road is cut off as well. 

 

 

 

 

Ethiopia the Colonial Project is indeed Dead!

 

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[maakhiri1]

6 hours ago, Dalmar1 said:

 

 

Ethiopia the Colonial Project is indeed Dead!

 

 

what is this anarchism? Ragga wax iska dhiciya dheh, waa maxay siddani?

[Khadafi]

On 7/17/2021 at 4:07 AM, Che -Guevara said:

Abiy says he will mobilize one million young people. 

Sounds like the derg in the 80-ties, when he recruited poorly armed amhara and oromo pesants to Eritrea and they were made into minced meat by the Elf or EPLF. Notice how Jawar is in jail and the amharas want ppl to die for them

[Khadafi]

These scenes are dramatic scenes but they were foretold  by the TPLF when took power. Ethiopia being the new Yoguslavia  is an archaic term. It is Yugoslavia and it is a dying mammal on life support?. How and why?

Many will be chocked by my first statement but Mengistu Xayle Maryam was a hardcore communist. Unlike Somalia, Ethiopia was an empire and the church owned land gave the solomonic dynasty legitamacy under Xayle Seleasie.  The elites of Somalis know that Haile selasie claimed to the un that his borders  from saylac tp kismaayo. He made this bold statement in BBC interview. Khabiithka gaalka was toppled by  another communist Mengustu. Mengistu did a thing that no one ever before tried to do. As a devouted communist  He destroyed church and its power  and even executed the bishop and made his own derg-bishop. By doing so he weakened the churchs ability to unite the christian oromos wollo and the christian amharas. Even Fidel called mengistu a true communist and accused our Barre of being a nationalist in the aden conferance.  Mengistu officaly recognised muslims and stopped using the slur "muhammedans" that the monarchists used and even dared to deny that muslims existed in Ethiopia. But mengistu had his weakness, he knew how fragile the state was in terms of ethnicity. He chose to continue with Amhara assimilation . 

In our faith we do not even deny the good deeds of the wicked. The murderor  Mengistu did the first strike to the concept of "abbysinia"

During the 1980, the EPLF had the Ethiopien army bogged down and the oromos in bale waging a war. They roamed the streets in Harar OLF-I . The Afar and tigrayans have and age old history of trade.  Afar liberation front, by the way all of these rebel organisation had their main HQ in Mogadishu, under the afar leadership of the nobole Sultan Cali Mirreh the cafar would cut the supply route from djabouti, By the late 1980-ties mengistu depleted his professional amhara russian  trained army. The tplf  cut down the supply route  to Eritrea and remember Tigray has more tigrayans then in Eritrea. 

 The whole third army, the army that guarded Soomali-Galbeed against Somalis were cut of supplies from Addis and defeated in a humiliating  wat by the EPLF.  They simply waited them out, without food  mass desertion became the norm with the generals first handing down their weapons. Who can fight without bullets and food. History was also on the side of the EPLF in Eritrea. Communism was dead in Soviet and all military  aid from Moscow was cut. The EPLF and remnants of the ELF captured Massawa  and the door to Asmara was open.

My friends this now the second  strike to post-meneik ethiopia.   Mengistu was ousted but the TPLF dared to answer and deal with age old marxist question self-determination  and ethnicity. They acknowledged that Amhara colonislism existed and created ethnic federalism. They did not do this out of love for oromos and non habesha ppl., the TPLF knew that the brogue educated elite of Amharas would one day come back.   This my friend is the third and final strike that would without a doubt create a yoguslavia scenario. Meles Senawi, the butcherer of Somalis in 2007 defined Ethiopia with ethnicity. And highly educated qadariya oromo  muslim scholar who attended our religous gathering told me once that he was astoniished,

He visited Sh-Xuseen baaale, and quluunqul and the went of the Wollo,. He asked a friend who he was got a firm "oromo" answer. Many of christian oromo friends had changed back their name to oromo names.   He attended school wollo and woild later go to azhar. He said to me, all of these people now listening to oromo music and claiming they are oromos would simply in the 60-ties say they are ethiopian or amhara. It was only the  muslim oromos who could not be assimilated becouse of islam into the amhara Abyssinian melting pot,

During the final days  Yoguslavia, the yoguslav army would be a serbian army, today the Ethiopian army is made up by oromo and amharas. They have been defeated in a humilated way when the TPLF retook mekelle and showed behind the cameras that  they won.  Abey Ahmed stunned has now launched his last card! and that card my friend has previously been used by mengistu. Arming thousands of poor amharas and making  them enter lorries as goates to be slaughtered  is a defeatist strategy.

 

Here is the future guys: The tigrayans fully  know article 39 of  a legal seccession. Whats funny  is that the average Ethiopian  because of ethnic-nationalism only knows article 39.

 

If Abey Ahmed loses his last card, the goats in the lorries arned and called "neftegna"  and age old term for an amhara colonialist with a rifle, if  they are beaten back, and the supply routes to djabouti is lost, (remember,   Sultan Ali mirre and his ALF used to toss one grenade  train metals once weak)  and this would make the trains useless. Even the ONLF are conducting operations behind scenes. The Arch enemies are united upon one thing.

An american Dayton summit. Every region will how democratic elections under strickt UN observers  and they tplf will probably include the choice "do you want your region seccede legaly from the federation".

Once that is done the Afar and Somalis will be gone, probably oronos, 100% tigray. Amhara will remain, The Somali nationalist from  awdal Sheekh Rooble predicted this,  Ethiopia will be left over to the amharas and yuguslavia was left the serbs.

 

The Tigrayans do not wish to become another Somaliland, unliterally declaring indipendence,. That will make them a pariah state and they will meet the same fate as Somaliland. 30 years looking for recognition that will never happen.  

They are smart, they want it legal. 

 

 

[Tillamook]

34 minutes ago, Khadafi said:

These scenes are dramatic scenes but they were foretold  by the TPLF when took power. Ethiopia being the new Yoguslavia  is an archaic term. It is Yugoslavia and it is a dying mammal on life support?. How and why?

Many will be chocked by my first statement but Mengistu Xayle Maryam was a hardcore communist. Unlike Somalia, Ethiopia was an empire and the church owned land gave the solomonic dynasty legitamacy under Xayle Seleasie.  The elites of Somalis know that Haile selasie claimed to the un that his borders  from saylac tp kismaayo. He made this bold statement in BBC interview. Khabiithka gaalka was toppled by  another communist Mengustu. Mengistu did a thing that no one ever before tried to do. As a devouted communist  He destroyed church and its power  and even executed the bishop and made his own derg-bishop. By doing so he weakened the churchs ability to unite the christian oromos wollo and the christian amharas. Even Fidel called mengistu a true communist and accused our Barre of being a nationalist in the aden conferance.  Mengistu officaly recognised muslims and stopped using the slur "muhammedans" that the monarchists used and even dared to deny that muslims existed in Ethiopia. But mengistu had his weakness, he knew how fragile the state was in terms of ethnicity. He chose to continue with Amhara assimilation . 

In our famous, we do not even deny the good deeds of the wicked. The murderor  Mengistu did the first strike

During the 1980, the EPLF hand the Ethiopien army bogged down and the oromos in bale waging a war. They roamed the streets in Harar OLF-I . The Afar and tigrayans have and age old history of trade.  Afar liberation front, by the way all of these rebel organisation had their main HQ in Mogadishu, under the afar leadership of the nobole Sultan Cali Mirreh the cafar would cut the supply route from djabouti, By the late 1980-ties mengistu depleted his professional amhara russian  trained army. The tplf were cut down the supplyroute and remember Tigray has more tigrayans then in Eritrea. 

 The whole third army, the army that guarded Soomali-Galbeed against Somalis were cut of supplies from Addis and defeated in a humiliating  defeat by the EPLF.  They simply waited them out, without food who can fight?. They captured Massawa  and the door to Asmara was open.

My friends this now the second  strike to post-meneik ethiopia.   Mengistu was ousted but the TPLF dared to answer and deal with age old marxist question self-determination  and ethnicity. They acknowledged that Amhara colonislism existed and created ethnic federalism. They did not do this out of love for oromos and non habesha ppl., the TPLF knew that the brogue educated elite of Amharas would one day come back.   This my friend is the third and final strike that would without a doubt create a yoguslavia scenario. Meles Senawi, the butcherer of Somalis in 2007 defined Ethiopia with ethnicity. And highly educated qadariya oromo  muslim scholar who attended our religous gathering told me once that he was astoniished,

He visited Sh-Xuseen baaale, and quluunqul and the went of the Wollo,. He asked a friend who he was got a firm "oromo" answer. Many of christian oromo friends had changed back their name to oromo names.   He attended school wollo and woild later go to azhar.

During the final days  Yoguslavia, the yoguslav army would be a serbian army, today the Ethiopian army is made up by oromo and amharas. They have been defeated in a humilated way when the TPLF retook mekelle and showed behind the cameras that  they won.  Abey Ahmed stunned has now launched his last card! and that card my friend has previously been used by mengistu. Arming thousands of poor amharas and making  them enter lorries as goates to be slaughtered  is a defeatist strategy.

 

Here is the future guys: The tigrayans fully  know article 39 of  a legal seccession. Whats funny  is that the average Ethiopian  because of ethnic-nationalism only knows article 39.

 

If Abey Ahmed loses his last card, the goats in the lorries arned and called "neftegna"  and age old term for an amhara colonialist with a rifle, if  they are beaten back, and the supply routes to djabouti is lost, (remember,   Sultan Ali mirre and his ALF used to toss one grenade  train metals once weak)  and this would make the trains useless. Even the ONLF are conducting operations behind scenes. The Arch enemies are united upon one thing.

An american Dayton summit. Every region will how democratic elections under strickt UN observers  and they tplf will probably include the choice "do you want your region seccede legaly from the federation".

Once that is done the Afar and Somalis will be gone, probably oronos, 100% tigray. Amhara will remain, The Somali nationalist from  awdal Sheekh Rooble predicted this,  Ethiopia will be left over to the amharas and yuguslavia was left the serbs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   The second strike was done by the EPLF who cordinated and actually made provuded fighters to addis abeba..

When Mengistus Ethiopian professional russian trained army where being minced meat he amed and  used poor oromo and amhara militias. 

 

 

 

Mudane Khadafi,  

I must say I was basking in the reflected glory of your post above, until I got to the part when you remarked, “ Here is the future guys…” which was where I opted to disembark.

Unlike you, I do not know the future. But what I do know is that the ethnicities that are referred to —on international maps —as Ethiopia are  speedily hurtling to the depths of an inevitable set of circumstances that will lead to endless misery for all of the Horn of Africa for decades to come.

 

[Dalmar1]

15 minutes ago, Tillamook said:

Mudane Khadafi,  

I must say I was basking in the reflected glory of your post above, until I got to the part when you remarked, “ Here is the future guys…” which was where I opted to disembark.

Unlike you, I do not know the future. But what I do know is that the ethnicities that are referred to —on international maps —as Ethiopia are  speedily hurtling to the depths of an inevitable set of circumstances that will lead to endless misery for all of the Horn of Africa for decades to come.

 

Its Better to die on your feet as a freeman than to live on your knees forever as enslaved people in your own land. 

Somalis and all the Ethnic folks shackled to the Ethiopian Empire would very much prefer a life of misery as free folks than a life under occupations and brutal repression in their own Lands by the Amhara Colonists.

[Tillamook]

13 hours ago, Dalmar1 said:

Its Better to die on your feet as a freeman than to live on your knees forever as enslaved people in your own land. 

Somalis and all the Ethnic folks shackled to the Ethiopian Empire would very much prefer a life of misery as free folks than a life under occupations and brutal repression in their own Lands by the Amhara Colonists.

I agree with you to a certain extent.
 

Whilst I can’t speak for other ethnicities, for the Somalis, it is not a zero-sum game in which we either have to chose a life of misery under occupation or a life of freedom.  I believe, of all the ethnicities trapped in what is now called Ethiopia, the Somalis have the most leverage and wherewithal to dictate the terms of their own future. However, the question remains… do they possess the right kind of leadership at this moment that can take advantage of this golden opportunity being presented to them right now?

[Arafaat]

12 hours ago, Tillamook said:

I agree with you to a certain extent.
 

Whilst I can’t speak for other ethnicities, for the Somalis, it is not a zero-sum game in which we either have to chose a life of misery under occupation or a life of freedom.  I believe, of all the ethnicities trapped in what is now called Ethiopia, the Somalis have the most leverage and wherewithal to dictate the terms of their own future. However, the question remains… do they possess the right kind of leadership at this moment that can take advantage of this golden opportunity being presented to them right now?

You seem to forget that all Somali’s, including those in Somaliland, Somalia and North-Eastern have quite some leverage to dictate terms of their own future, but lack leadership that can see the big picture and seem to be consumed by internal clan related petty form of power politics. 
 

So, it’s easy talking how other regions ought to be doing, but how do you assess the opportunities in your fiefdom or region.

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Khadafi]

I do agree with you that a bloody dissolution could mean war, death and anarchy. The oromos are only united if they have a common enemey, just like the Somalis.  Indeed they are also divided between the orthodox and muslim oromos. The afar region is clanish and as somalis.

But remember that these people lived under peace and order before meneliks modern amhara army came 120 years ago and chopped the hands of muslims who refused to bow to him in Harar, The second thing is what is the alternative. While the meaning "Somali" has a ethnic term behind it, the term "ethiopian" has no meaning, no relevance. Infact after conquering Harar someone adviced the emperor to change the name "abyssinia" habasha as it is exslusive to the oromos and other non axbaash people.  The project is dead. Meles with his ethnic nationalism finally  brought the read elephant  in to the open and butchered it. Its now on life support, mainly by the amharas and a few oromos.

[Tillamook]

On 7/30/2021 at 7:06 PM, Arafaat said:

You seem to forget that all Somali’s, including those in Somaliland, Somalia and North-Eastern have quite some leverage to dictate terms of their own future, but lack leadership that can see the big picture and seem to be consumed by internal clan related petty form of power politics. 
 

So, it’s easy talking how other regions ought to be doing, but how do you assess the opportunities in your fiefdom or region.

 I thought this thread concerned matters of a much more extraordinary kind currently unfolding in the west of western Somalia, or should I grossly mis-spend my time in responding to your droll attempts at derailing the topic at hand?

[Che -Guevara]

Tigray commander vows to fight until blockade ends

Mary Harper

Africa editor, BBC World Service

A senior commander of Tigrayan forces in northern Ethiopia has vowed to keep fighting until a blockade on the region is lifted and the federal government accepts its conditions for a ceasefire.

General Tsadkan Gebretensae told the BBC that Tigrayan fighters wouldn't leave the neighbouring regions of Afar and Amhara until they achieved their objectives.

He said Ethiopian federal forces and Eritrean troops remained in Tigray, but that they would be wiped out if they didn't leave voluntarily.

The general said the future of Tigray would be decided in a referendum by its people once a political settlement had been reached with Addis Ababa.

The nine-month war has led to famine conditions for hundreds of thousands of people.