Tigray forces Recapture Mekelle

[Che -Guevara]

30 minutes ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

Tigray niman si fudud looga adkaan karo maha. Nimankani wa asxaabulfeelki. They will fight and fight until the bitter end. They destroyed mengistu. What makes u think a small galla boy they trained can enslave them. 

TPF were junior partners during the Derg. The heavy lifting was done by Eritreans.

[Arafaat]

Xaaji, it’s frankly quite sad to see Ethiopia edging towards civil war. It’s not in the interest of Somali’s to witness our largest neighbor Ethiopia becoming a conflict or killing zone for any of its tribes. We must hope that Ethiopians return to the dialogue table and somehow come to a mutual understanding. And it’s becoming more clear that Abiy’s becoming part of the problem rather the the solution. Having said that, the authoritarian tendencies that we are witnessing and the brute force of the National Army against a tribe or region is not new to Ethiopia, and it’s roots have been laid long before Abiy came to scene, and he is using the same futile and destructive brute politics he has learned from the previous regimes that have laid the seed of the cycle we are witnessing today. And many have hoped that he would able to break that vicious cycle. 

[Che -Guevara]

41 minutes ago, Arafaat said:

Seems PM Abiy is trying to escape responsibility here which is not a good sign for what is to come. Eventually Tigray, Amhara and Ethiopia will come to the negotiating table, but it seems that Abiy has no plans to be part of that, as he is moving the goal post further away even after loosing his plot in Tigray. 

The war was an expensive one too as acknowledged by him.

How would such negotiation look like? At this stage, every Tigrayan wants independence, every Amhara wants a very centralized state, and there's the issue of the border dispute. And then there's the Oromo factor.

[Arafaat]

For Ethiopia to become a democratic, multinational country its essential to have federalist parties. So in that regard it only made sense for the EPRDF to transform in to a unified party (the Prosperity Party) and as this party is one that is centralizing Ethiopia further. But it would have been wise and it still might be possible to provide some political space for a counter party to form that provides pathways for those that are advocating for greater devolution, self-administration or autonomy of the regions, and at the same time this would have forced all those ‘ethnic’ oriented parties to come together at federal level and form coherent policies, to get a seat seat at the ‘national table’, something which would have been far more challenging to achieve for those with ‘ethnic’ or ‘regionalist’ oriented ideologies then the ‘centrist’ party block. And this Preventing any extreme position such as has happened now with the Tigray and their wish for independence and other other opposition parties that now feel disenfranchised. Imagine all those who were watching dreams for genuine self-rule slip away before real freedom is tasted—especially after having only recently escaped the TPLF’s choke, to be only replaced by the P&P. 

But that opportunity was not offered by Abiy and co, forcing TPLF and other like minded regional ‘peripheral’ parties to boycot his elections and to extreme position. 

One thing that we have to realize, also in the Somali context, is that political ideas and ideologies don’t just die nor can they vanish with suppression only, without offering genuine alternative pathways, even if it’s sometimes just for the surface and for cosmetics than genuine reality. This is something that one can learn from the TPLF, they been doing this for three decades with their version of ‘federalism’ in name only which in reality was a brutal democratic centralism under the banner of so called ethnic federalism. 

There are options and there are examples of different state forms that both accommodate centrist and federalist, and also many examples where ‘ethnic’ border issue have been resolved through some sort of consensus accommodating different sides. 

 

[Arafaat]

Gen Tsadkan Gebretensae: Ethiopia's Tigray rebel mastermind

WWW.BBC.COM

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A former army general is leading the war against the Ethiopian government.

Interesting piece on the leader of the Tigray forces. 

[Che -Guevara]

1 hour ago, Arafaat said:

Gen Tsadkan Gebretensae: Ethiopia's Tigray rebel mastermind

WWW.BBC.COM

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A former army general is leading the war against the Ethiopian government.

Interesting piece on the leader of the Tigray forces. 

Every military conflict needs a mythical hero.

You gotta admire this though

Quote

There Gen Tsadkan slept in a bed with sheets for the first time for 15 years. Under his command, the guerrillas rapidly restored order to the capital - they entered the city on 28 May, and pensions and civil servants' salaries were paid three days later.

 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

7 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

TPF were junior partners during the Derg. The heavy lifting was done by Eritreans.

TPLF EPLF is same people tigrigna people  same people different rebel groups. Same cause in the end. Just different paths. But they have the same fighting spirits shabia and woyane. Wa ummad hadafkoodu mid yahay. 

[Arafaat]

2 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

TPLF EPLF is same people tigrigna people  same people different rebel groups. Same cause in the end. Just different paths. But they have the same fighting spirits shabia and woyane. Wa ummad hadafkoodu mid yahay. 

Xaaji, hadafkoodu haduu noqday mid ee cadowad ku abuurteen oo qowmiyadihii Ethiopia maanta ciil u qabaan, iskugu tageen, ganacsi goodi ku bur burtay. Ka waran mexee faideyn? 

[Holac]

Tigray people found freedom. Abiy, the Amhara puppet lost all credibility. 

So what is our other Amhara puppet @Abtigiisgoing to do now? His Amhara masters are all crying all over the internet. 

[Abdi90]

Now expect in few weeks Tigray parliament to reconvene first time after liberation and invoke independence/cessation from Ethiopia.

[Che -Guevara]

27 minutes ago, Abdi90 said:

Now expect in few weeks Tigray parliament to reconvene first time after liberation and invoke independence/cessation from Ethiopia.

Or we can also expect the federal parliament to change the constitution and revoke article 39.

[Arafaat]

I am not sure if we should take the Tigray call independence serieus, but see it rather as leverage in negotiations with the central authority. For the Tigray have enormous economic and financial interest in Addis Abeba and other regions, they loose everything if they succeeded?

Second the state would not be viable, as it’s land locked with two of the three neighbors being hostile to this region, and it doesn’t even  direct road connections to Sudan! 

Third, the Political historical narrative of the Tigray and Amharas has always been about ruling Ethiopia and being the dominant party in a multinational country that Ethiopia is.

Yes, the Tigray are a resilient and resourceful folk that have survived in the most harshest region with an inhospitable climate, and have faced the most challenging of odds against them, occupation, famine, foreign invasion, etc, but in all of these cases they either had access and influence in Ethiopia with other tribes or in Eritrea with access to the sea and a brotherly clan they shared fates with. But none of this is the case. 

I am sure they will start to negotiate once the Amhara and Oromo’s political temporary alliance forged by Abiy and co starts to deteriorate.  

[Che -Guevara]

1 hour ago, Arafaat said:

I am not sure if we should take the Tigray call independence serieus, but see it rather as leverage in negotiations with the central authority. For the Tigray have enormous economic and financial interest in Addis Abeba and other regions, they loose everything if they succeeded?

Second the state would not be viable, as it’s land locked with two of the three neighbors being hostile to this region, and it doesn’t even  direct road connections to Sudan! 

Third, the Political historical narrative of the Tigray and Amharas has always been about ruling Ethiopia and being the dominant party in a multinational country that Ethiopia is.

Yes, the Tigray are a resilient and resourceful folk that have survived in the most harshest region with an inhospitable climate, and have faced the most challenging of odds against them, occupation, famine, foreign invasion, etc, but in all of these cases they either had access and influence in Ethiopia with other tribes or in Eritrea with access to the sea and a brotherly clan they shared fates with. But none of this is the case. 

I am sure they will start to negotiate once the Amhara and Oromo’s political temporary alliance forged by Abiy and co starts to deteriorate.  

Amharas have been making that argument, but Tigrayans are a committed bunch, and they will make it work. In terms of access to the sea, Port Sudan is a good candidate granted they reached the Sudanese border.

Ethiopians have been self-segregating for a few years now, Amharas have been uprooted from their homes in Oromia, and the southern states. Tigray merchants attacked and robbed Amhara. And Somalis, some of whom didn't speak Somalis, were violently kicked out of Oromia by Muslim Oromos. The point being, regions are becoming less and less diverse.

The level of animosity and hatred among the general public has become very entrenched. Even some Amharas are beginning to say let's secure our land, and get ready for the possibility of Ethiopia breaking up.

I personally think trying to keep Ethiopia is basically delaying the inevitable. The history of Ethiopia is one group oppressing the rest. Somalis have a better chance of learning to live together peacefully and equitably.

 

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

On 6/30/2021 at 10:49 PM, Arafaat said:

Gen Tsadkan Gebretensae: Ethiopia's Tigray rebel mastermind

WWW.BBC.COM

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A former army general is leading the war against the Ethiopian government.

Interesting piece on the leader of the Tigray forces. 

Established Western media in their typical of idolizing one they think is fighting against the one they are against.

[galbeedi]

The Amhara ideology of Unitarian Ethiopia is dead. As Che mentioned everyone except the Somalis are preparing for the eventual Yugoslavia to crumble. Even some Amhara are preparing for this eventuality.

For sure Abiy is the loser at the moment. His biggest mistake was alienating the Oromo nationalists while prompting colonial Ethiopian history. By resurrecting Menelik he has shown his true colours. Most Oromo's are convinced that Abiy is serving the interest of the Amhara. 

In his speech, he said he  spent 100 billion in just 8 months, while the budget of Tigray was 8 billion. He even accused the Tigray civilians for stealing resources and giving to the TPLF. He said he doesn't want to be bogged down in Tigray like the Derg in the eighties. Destroying the military, financial and logistical power of the TPLF was good for many nationalities within Ethiopia and the region. Now they will be just be another small entity in the north who must either try to separate or negotiate with the Oromo power within  federal Ethiopia run by the Oromo. As Khadaafi said, Afwerk is not ready for another isolation from the west this time around. While the people of Eritrea hate him, they are not ready to be a satellite state under Ethiopia or victimised by no one. Unlike many, they paid dearly for their independence and want to remain as such.

 

Abiy has delayed the real rise of Oromo to take power. The biggest threat for Oromo power was the TPLF and Amhara. This combined forces with the assistance of foreign entities was huge obstacle for Oromo takeover. Now the TPLF is weak and have no desire to challenge Oromo within Ethiopia. When the TPLF was forced to give power in 2018, Jawar and others warned about Abiy and recommended Lema Magrasa. Despite being the leaders of rhe revolution, no one asked the opinions of the Oromo about the future of Ethiopia, it was a debate among the evil highlanders. Now, the real problem is what kind of Oromo leader will show up to take power. At the moment, the Queero and other Oromo nationalist masses are quite to avoid internal Oromo civil war, but as soon as the political games begin, expect a bush for a second Queero revolution. This time around they are deputised as a local police.

Abiy was crowned by Amhara and was accepted by the TPLF who wanted to continue their hegemony through him. It was the TPLF policy of trying to hold the same influence that put them against Abiy. THey certainly paid that price for both the Tigray and Amhara who must be ruled by others or accept a Yugoslavia style Ethiopia.

Now what about the man hiding in the Jigjiga palace?

Unlike the Affar, Oromo, Benshanguli and others, Mustafe Cagjar has done nothing to prepare for the coming Ethiopia. THe other day he went to Berbera port --which will not be used by Ethiopia during the reign of Abiy--and proclaimed 'Jamuuriyada Somaliland'. Could you imagine the Amhara and other Ethiopia delegates didn't even mention anything likr that , yet he openly advocated for that. The reason is simple. Since you can't  hide the stolen money from the region within Ethiopia, his looted assets are in WAjaale and Hargeisa, so expect the typical pandering. By the way the Bebera show of and the so called ownership of Ethiopian share just nothing but a game to keep Egypt and others for setting up shop in Berbera. That is what experts told us.

Anyway, while the Addis based government is weak, Cagjar is doing nothing to improve self rule and future eventuality. For starters, he could create an atmosphere where Somalis could elect their own leaders free of outside interference. I know he can not due that at the moment, but he could move some stones and prepare the next leader to make bold steps. His fate is tied to that of Amhara and as soon as an real Oromo leader shows up he will pack his bags and join his millions in Hargeisa and Dubai.

Furthermore, there won't be any excuse for the Mogadishu based Somali government about Ethiopian meddling. Rarher than counting and dividing the NGO money, one expects the to do the real job and clean up Mogadishu.