Rethinking Amisoms role in Somalia? more importantly where is Somalia heading?

[Khadafi]

How many years have it been since amisom arrived in Somalia? 10 years? 12 years? As the world is watching the government of Afghanistan failing to stop the talibans advance to the capital its impossible not ask if the same fate awaits Mogadishu. While the taliban  in a clever way distanced themselves from the al-qaida world view of a never ending "jihad" against the west, they never abandoned their sunni xanafi and sufi naqshbandi madhab and rebranded themselves as afghan "islamic-nationalists". As the USA slowly accepted this narrative gullable somalis abandoned the  sunni shafite madhab and sufi qadariya to the saudi wahabi way. Al-shabaab made the disastrous  political move of pledging allegiance to al-qaida and by so joined the world view of a "never ending jihad" against anyone who disagrees with themselves.    While we on this forum quarell about farmajo or the former somali presidents the de-facto situation on the table is that somali minister cant even travel by car from mogadishu to baidoa, or from mogadishu to kismayou, or to the north, from mogadishu to galkacayo and onworth to hargeysaa.

The Hyeanas of Ethiopia,  the tplf introduced the federal system in Somalia as a way of controlling Somalia as they controlled the oromiya, amhara region. Who  here in this forum remembers the yellow sopha that every somali leader had sit on.  Those who defended federalism claimed that it was necessary as somali  ethnic nationalism was as its lowest point. They argued if the clan is the problem let Somalia regress to its clan borders and lets put the federal regions the responsibility of ridding themselves  of al-shabaab and making stability. The formula of 4.5 would be temporary.  

While a dying post-menelik Ethiopia is dying the wacalka gaalka  Caabey Axmed is liiterally trying force the flies that came out of the pandoras box that the TPLF unleashed mainly oromo nationalism and ethnic nationalism. Ethiopia will probably see a much more bloodier Yugoslavia break up if the West do not intervene. I personally do not think that they will intervene. The west is done. We are seeing the dwindling power of the US.  Syria is a fact to this.

But the equation that does not add up is where do we somalis see ourselves in 10 years?.  For all the mumbo and jumbo we know that federal government of Somalia is an institution under the tutelage of the UN. Without the european  aid and the us aid to the FGS it would crumble.  Is it wrong to see mogadishy as a living saigon?  Its a city literally under siege.    Being the top number 1 corruption also means the people lack faith in the federal court systems. A testimony to that  was a court file made by wifes family regarding the dhaxal issues. While the courts wanted money the opposite side went to ceelasha biyaha and the inlaw got a message with 10 dollars to buy cloths for his funeral if he did not attend the hearing. As brutal as it might sound the poor fellow went to ceelasha biyaha and he actually won the case.  It was a done deal.  The funny side to this story is that in law is a musician and a buisnessman belongs the middle class of mogadishu. As a man who worked under Barres government he hated al-shabaab and what they stood for.

In the north 30 years has gone since the three clan towns proclaimed to be nation. The world rejected this and on top of this a part of this "democratic nation" that does everything brainwash its youth  that the 15-teenth may is  blessed day, the day 26 june is almost unheard off. The day when the white man who looted and colonised Somaliland left and yokes of oppression was broken has been  systematically dismantled.  Historical revisionism as its best. Nor they teach their children how grown men were taken from berbere and put in a zoo so the british white people could watch the "nomadic somalis" as  entertainment.  If they were truly democratic they would not inprison fellow "landers" wearing blue clothes or voicing unionist stances.  The charade as a African democracy works fine for BBC propaganda but the charade would have been better if the minority landers who are unionist would be allowed to have party instead of the 3-junta party-system they created.  That generation is dying.  The truth is slowly coming out. They Somalis and their fate will allways be connected to their fellow somali brothers and sisters.

 

Lasty  Where is Somalia actually heading? We have a president who instead of trying to heal Somalis, instead of learning the tremendous damages done by his uncle Barre, A man who literally destroyed somalia and fragmented Somalia, compare that to midget amxaaro mengistu, when asked by the Amhara population to be armed he  refused and orderd his defeated army to obey the orders of the rebel army who were flooding to the capital. After the tigrayans were toppled voa amharic conducted a lengthy interview with mengistu. Before the interview his fellow woleyta dasela mariam took photos with mengistu.  Mengistu old and dying wanted to be rememberd as the one who saved Ethiopia from eternal damnation and ethnic stife. eretriyaanki soomaliya joogi jiray who understands amharic told me that his sole legitimacy and sole arguement was pointing the finger at Somalia. When the journalist asked him tough questions regarding the merciless killings he simply replied "I am  and was progressive  (anti feudal, communist ) ethiopian.  If I would have wanted power I could have armed gondar. Would have taken such a evil task of arming militias on ethnic basis we would have turned up as Somalia. "look at barre and ghaddafi". 

He even had the audacity use a slur word for somalis meaning uncultured and wild. The journalist, an oromo fired back and said "according to some you relocated amhara people to lands owned and cultivated oromos and did so under communism. Is that not the ethnic chauvanism.? Mengistu the midget showed his anger and said in strong voice "weyane we behind selling of eritrea and what is wrong with ethiopians moving to other cities, you are in washington, are you evil if you move to california.  This will probably the last interview the midget will give. He wanted to the historians to correct his murderous regime. Unfortunately Barre died before he could give a lengthy interview-  But  AUN Barre literally in the deepest meaning of the word opened up the army caches of Somalia to clan militias and even arrested the respected leaders of the manifesto group. A civilian group that included Aaaden Cadde, The 2 famous human rights lawyer Avokate Maxamed Rajis and many more. He ignored him and the nation was damned to have internal strife in 30 years ony come to the solution that we regressed to having clan enclaves.

Clan enclaves is how the colonialists found us.  Coming back somali politics. It was horrendous to see farmaajo trying to postpone elections. Would have he have succeeded in what sixroolaha Casayas Afwerki told him the whole healing process of a h-block  president stepping down and  D-block president appointed  glory and hope in Mogadishu. Those were signs of that tribal healing was having effect.  Instead of that in uu kursiga ka dhago, it amazes me. The erratic diplomatic relations, spurring with UN while your whole army is funded by the UN is playing with peoples nationalist sentiments and using that your  political gain. I hope that Somalia never  sees a president that is bent or had a vision of Barres regime as one of beacon of hope. While Xassan Sheekh worked witihin the countrey he knew how fragile it was.

 

He was the one who compromised on Jubbaland, what could he do?  He was not perfect he did not dismiss the parliament as an institution that became nacamkuyaal.. I am still confused. Where is Somalia actually? Does Somalia have the powet to rid itself with takfiiri-wahabiyada ideology or does it  not?   The only non erratic thing  Farmaajo is  that he stood by turkey even if the Saudis wived neutrality  as taking side with Qatar.  What do you guys think, where us actually heading?

[galbeedi]

Khadaafi,

It is a good article with a lot of eye opening issues. As you mentioned the Taliban never hurt anyone beyond its border. While Al-shabaab was bombing Nairobi, Kampala and threaten the horn of Africa, the Taliban remained a home grown movement hell bent on removing foreign troops.

Since Al-shabaab has pledged alligence to international terrorists like Al-Qarda, I don't see them succeeding or even changing tactics. Also unlike Taliban, they are beholden to the gulf backward sect called Wahabi. At the moment, what is sustaining them is the Mogadishu business community, the foreign intelligence and the corruptions of Somali government in terms adjudicating small claim courts and other issues. Yet, the biggest money maker for Al=shabaab is what I call the ' Hotel Cartel'.I will write about them soon.

Certainly Farmaajo made some mistakes in terms of his dealings with the regional leadership. He spend a great deal of resources and time to crown loyal men in position of leadership in the regions which might even backfire at the end. It is an oxymoron to have a friend in regional presidents, all you need to have is a working relationship. Yet, after seeing the gathering of the storm from the gulf and others,  Farmaajo tried to keep the same team and achieve something before time runs out.

When you see the coalition that formed from the separatist elements, UAE, Djibouti and others, Farmaajo might have thought to defeat them for the greater good. Who knows.

As your earlier articles , you always mention about the failure of Siyad Barre to leave the nation before its collapse, but the biggest reasons of the anarchy that flowed was the dismantling of the national army. In Ethiopia, the army was intact despite rebels taking over the capital. In Somalia the tribal rebels dismantled the army. 

Some of us believe that despite its religious connotations, Al-shabaab is still controlled and deployed by certain clan interests. Why is Al-shabaab still very active in Mudug despite the presence of huge armed  tribal militia and Galmudug forces? When Farmaajo was elected, some of have asked him to do the minimal thing of building the army and securing the capital. Who ever becomes a leader must do something serious about this town .

The next leader , whether it is Farmaajo or anyone else must start the withdrawal of the Amisom forces.The Turkey trained forces are winning without even heavy weapons. He must work on lifting the arms embargo and Somalia could defeat Al-shabaab. 

Finally, I do not believe the UN to be capable or willing to move the country to self rule. Just look at the last fake dispute that almost created a civil war. It was a quarrel among six or seven men.  now, the process is getting bigger by the day.

Where in the world you would have more referees than the actual players?

L last week the prime minister released the names of the election commissions and other conflict resolution appointees.In total they were 124. . the federal elections commission members were 24 plus another 21 for conflict resolutions. Add that 11 from each region for commission and another six for conflict resolutions.Another 17 from Somaliland and similar number for Banaadir.

In the real world arbitrators and judges usually are three, five or maximum nine. Make them 11 if you wish. Why would the UN allow such kind of travesty?  Who is advising these people to appoint over a hundred judges. That is the UN. Soon they will be put in one of these hotels, Halane or some where else and the premier and his men will make millions on these judges who are almost half of the parliament. In fact, a wise man told me that this thing could be dragged until December or even next year just to milk these meetings. The UN and others are happy paying millions for 124 new judges.

Finally, as many in here, you are very suspicious of Abiy and his moves to keep the old Ethiopia. No one wants Amhara hegemony , yet Abiy Ahmed is also dismantling  the old guard of both Amhara and TPLf grip on power. In Addis Ababa, for the first time, a Somali person was elected as a member of parliament and two other Somalis are running for city counsel seats,  and the last time I checked, they were both leading. Despite Abiy's his future plans, I don't understand why some Somalis are nostalgic about the evil TPLF. You can not imagine how many Muslim women with head scarfes joining the next parliament. We have to careful for what we wish.

If Turkey stands by us and the west lifts the weapons embargo, we might actually defeat Al-shabaab. Most of all , we need the collaborations of Kenya and Ethiopia. Lastly, the real battle is ahead which is even bigger than Al-shabaab, The Mogadishu business oligarchs and hotel cartels.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[galbeedi]

5 hours ago, Khadafi said:

The charade as a African democracy works fine for BBC propaganda

In Somaliland the only good thing that came out of the election was some corrupt mayors were changed. That is all. The parliament was elected on tribal card not on party platform or even a change. As soon as the election was over, the real election of appointing mayors took inside smoke filled rooms.

For 11 years the parliament never refused or changed any budget nor passed any laws. The economy is stagnated long ago. After 30 years The budget never passed $200 million for the last few years despite inflating the dollar exchange. everyone is waiting some changes to come from outside. When the Mogadishu issues get bad they all come out boast about their success while putting down the south. When things get organized in Mogadishu and they see an assertive national government, they scream about being victims and use the tribal card. This can only go on  for a while.

People must know that Somaliland is very small in terms of towns and people. It is Hargeisa, Borama and Burco. Few clans who know each other.

[Tallaabo]

8 hours ago, galbeedi said:

People must know that Somaliland is very small in terms of towns and people. It is Hargeisa, Borama and Burco. Few clans who know each other.

So you have counted them, right? And how will people's knowledge of how small Somaliland is change anything? Will the Koonfurians then leave us alone? After all who needs such an insignificant place?

[Dhagaxtuur]

^always getting your knickers in a twist  the slightest about your little village.  Chill. 

[Che -Guevara]

5 hours ago, Tallaabo said:

So you have counted them, right? And how will people's knowledge of how small Somaliland is change anything? Will the Koonfurians then leave us alone? After all who needs such an insignificant place?

We might leave you alone if Somaliland gives up Sool, Sanaag and Awdal

 

There is nothing insignificant about Somaliland. It's essential to Somali weyn.

[Arafaat]

 

On 6/28/2021 at 8:47 AM, galbeedi said:

Khadaafi,

It is a good article with a lot of eye opening issues. As you mentioned the Taliban never hurt anyone beyond its border. While Al-shabaab was bombing Nairobi, Kampala and threaten the horn of Africa, the Taliban remained a home grown movement hell bent on removing foreign troops.

Since Al-shabaab has pledged alligence to international terrorists like Al-Qarda, I don't see them succeeding or even changing tactics. Also unlike Taliban, they are beholden to the gulf backward sect called Wahabi. At the moment, what is sustaining them is the Mogadishu business community, the foreign intelligence and the corruptions of Somali government in terms adjudicating small claim courts and other issues. Yet, the biggest money maker for Al=shabaab is what I call the ' Hotel Cartel'.I will write about them soon.

Certainly Farmaajo made some mistakes in terms of his dealings with the regional leadership. He spend a great deal of resources and time to crown loyal men in position of leadership in the regions which might even backfire at the end. It is an oxymoron to have a friend in regional presidents, all you need to have is a working relationship. Yet, after seeing the gathering of the storm from the gulf and others,  Farmaajo tried to keep the same team and achieve something before time runs out.

When you see the coalition that formed from the separatist elements, UAE, Djibouti and others, Farmaajo might have thought to defeat them for the greater good. Who knows.

As your earlier articles , you always mention about the failure of Siyad Barre to leave the nation before its collapse, but the biggest reasons of the anarchy that flowed was the dismantling of the national army. In Ethiopia, the army was intact despite rebels taking over the capital. In Somalia the tribal rebels dismantled the army. 

Some of us believe that despite its religious connotations, Al-shabaab is still controlled and deployed by certain clan interests. Why is Al-shabaab still very active in Mudug despite the presence of huge armed  tribal militia and Galmudug forces? When Farmaajo was elected, some of have asked him to do the minimal thing of building the army and securing the capital. Who ever becomes a leader must do something serious about this town .

The next leader , whether it is Farmaajo or anyone else must start the withdrawal of the Amisom forces.The Turkey trained forces are winning without even heavy weapons. He must work on lifting the arms embargo and Somalia could defeat Al-shabaab. 

Finally, I do not believe the UN to be capable or willing to move the country to self rule. Just look at the last fake dispute that almost created a civil war. It was a quarrel among six or seven men.  now, the process is getting bigger by the day.

Where in the world you would have more referees than the actual players?

L last week the prime minister released the names of the election commissions and other conflict resolution appointees.In total they were 124. . the federal elections commission members were 24 plus another 21 for conflict resolutions. Add that 11 from each region for commission and another six for conflict resolutions.Another 17 from Somaliland and similar number for Banaadir.

In the real world arbitrators and judges usually are three, five or maximum nine. Make them 11 if you wish. Why would the UN allow such kind of travesty?  Who is advising these people to appoint over a hundred judges. That is the UN. Soon they will be put in one of these hotels, Halane or some where else and the premier and his men will make millions on these judges who are almost half of the parliament. In fact, a wise man told me that this thing could be dragged until December or even next year just to milk these meetings. The UN and others are happy paying millions for 124 new judges.

Finally, as many in here, you are very suspicious of Abiy and his moves to keep the old Ethiopia. No one wants Amhara hegemony , yet Abiy Ahmed is also dismantling  the old guard of both Amhara and TPLf grip on power. In Addis Ababa, for the first time, a Somali person was elected as a member of parliament and two other Somalis are running for city counsel seats,  and the last time I checked, they were both leading. Despite Abiy's his future plans, I don't understand why some Somalis are nostalgic about the evil TPLF. You can not imagine how many Muslim women with head scarfes joining the next parliament. We have to careful for what we wish.

If Turkey stands by us and the west lifts the weapons embargo, we might actually defeat Al-shabaab. Most of all , we need the collaborations of Kenya and Ethiopia. Lastly, the real battle is ahead which is even bigger than Al-shabaab, The Mogadishu business oligarchs and hotel cartels

I seriously recommend that you do try to update yourself on the current and past realities in Somalia, cause what you have written here sir, is the biggest load of nonsense I have read on SOL in the past decade or so. 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

On 6/28/2021 at 9:02 AM, galbeedi said:

In Somaliland the only good thing that came out of the election was some corrupt mayors were changed. That is all. The parliament was elected on tribal card not on party platform or even a change. As soon as the election was over, the real election of appointing mayors took inside smoke filled rooms.

For 11 years the parliament never refused or changed any budget nor passed any laws. The economy is stagnated long ago. After 30 years The budget never passed $200 million for the last few years despite inflating the dollar exchange. everyone is waiting some changes to come from outside. When the Mogadishu issues get bad they all come out boast about their success while putting down the south. When things get organized in Mogadishu and they see an assertive national government, they scream about being victims and use the tribal card. This can only go on  for a while.

People must know that Somaliland is very small in terms of towns and people. It is Hargeisa, Borama and Burco. Few clans who know each other.

 

 

Somaliland budget is over 400 million dollars with out a single penny from the west. Koonfurians get all sort of aid send. The Somaliland is the success story of the horn. And Somalia is the most failed state in africa in the same league as Libya. 

[Khadafi]

39 minutes ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

 

 

Somaliland budget is over 400 million dollars with out a single penny from the west. Koonfurians get all sort of aid send. The Somaliland is the success story of the horn. And Somalia is the most failed state in africa in the same league as Libya. 

Did that statement make you feel a psycological a bit better? If yes, do go around  repeat it as whirling dervish.  30 years has gone and most of the leaders who knew that this whole "project" was a political stunt in order to gain power in the coming somali republic 1991  are almost senile or dead.  The good thing about Somaliland is that they have stability. As for I am concerned It would be better if you actually  got recognition. As a somali from mogadishu I feel tribalism is more ingrained in the northern culture. But you need to sort up your problems with the Somalis outside Berbera-Hargeysa and Burco.   

 

 

[Arafaat]

The sustained presence of the foreign troops isn’t because there is lack of Somali soldiers or lack of guns win Somalia, but Somali’s are lacking societal trust among themselves which is the most fundamental basis for any institutions(e.g. army, police) to be able to function.
 

And to build trust you need honesty, integrity and consistency, and despite the whole world witnessing our tragedies for the last 30 years, we still remain in denial and can’t even acknowledge the most basic historical facts while nowadays we have access to all the information and knowledge that is out there. how can you decide on a path for the future, if one can’t even digest the events of the past. See the above nonsense that Galbeedi has written here, proving we have a long path to go. 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

7 hours ago, Khadafi said:

Did that statement make you feel a psycological a bit better? If yes, do go around  repeat it as whirling dervish.  30 years has gone and most of the leaders who knew that this whole "project" was a political stunt in order to gain power in the coming somali republic 1991  are almost senile or dead.  The good thing about Somaliland is that they have stability. As for I am concerned It would be better if you actually  got recognition. As a somali from mogadishu I feel tribalism is more ingrained in the northern culture. But you need to sort up your problems with the Somalis outside Berbera-Hargeysa and Burco.   

 

 

Hello there kadaffi. SOMALILAND was a people choice it had nothing to do with leverage or gaining something in Mogadishu. We think your worthless absolutely not important u have nothing of value we want. The moment you understand this.  Is the  moment you will understand Somaliland. We have no problems with Somalis be it from Somalia Kenya jabuuti or Ethiopia.  For Somalia the only difference is we have issues with their so called leaders in the bunker. But the with  the other 3 we havre absolutely no problem with their leadership.ina cagjar aka abtigiis was in Berbera few days ago. There was a Somali Kenyan delegation. We have an embassy in Djibouti. And our people are very close to Djibouti and its people. 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

2 minutes ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

Dp

 

[AbdillahiSamatar]

I know that Somaliland's reluctant to rejoin Somalia is rooted in its belief that they will lose power and cannot make effective change in a Somalia government. Barre has sowed the seeds of mistrust but I do believe this mistrust has existed for a long time even before Barre. It will be difficult to get people who are use to getting their way to learn to share.

Somalis need to have an honest conversation about the mess we find ourselves in. A Somali government that works for the people is what we want but we are scared about who rules from Mogadishu as this can once again lead to civil war. Somalia is a mess and the Mogadishu people need to get their act together in order for us to speak to the Somalilanders and form an honest union. This is all basic but what makes it difficult is emotions, which will mislead Somalis each and every time.