The Somaliland election will keep the status quo as was intended.

[galbeedi]

 

This election cycle in Somaliland will not change much or even improve anything meaningful in terms of democracy, rule of law and development. No one in Somaliland including the leaders wanted this election to take place. Incumbent leaders try every trick in the book to avoid any election that might change the status quo. The last parliamentary election took place in 2005, and this one is taking place after 16 years. In fact, both Muuse Biixi and the opposition never wanted any election to take place. Faysal Waraabe and company were afraid of the opening of the political parties might negatively affect his UCID personal party (business) which is nothing but a money generating enterprise.

 

Elections were forced on Somaliland by the donors in Nairobi who must justify their existance e and aid. They flew to Hargeisa more than 40 times for the ;last four years pushing for elections. In order to be on the good side of the Frenji who usually bankrolles the whole thing, they were forced to hold the usual tribal selection election.

 

Now, let us leave behind my opinions and characterization and analyze the good, the bad and the ugly of the election.

 

The Good.

 

Every time power changes through ballots, that is  a recipe for peace and security , especially the horn of Africa region where despots rule the day.  Somaliland scored 42/100 in freedom and liberty according to freedom house which is one of the highest in Sub Sahara Africa. Only Kenya scored higher (48).  During the election day , not one single incident of violence or disturbances had taken place. It was like a celebratory style where citizens flock to the polls with enthusiasm. 

 

If fact, these elections show how the people of somaliland are eager to do the right thing despite the incompetence of the ruling class. They are people who are willing to do the right thing by taking their  pride of showing others their eagerness to be something special. I should say that the people of Somaliland had done their duties to enhance democracy.

 

The Bad.

Demoqraadiyada Beelaha ( tribal democracy).

 

Despite the communist style government propaganda, nothing has changed in Somaliland in terms of improving election rules and representation. In 2005 , when Dahir Rayaale held the first parliamentary election, it was agreed that since this one was the first test of parliamentary democracy, it should be done without distracting or taking census on the size of the population.  If you are running for a parliamentary seat, you do not run for certain ridding or district. For example, if you want to run a seat in Woqoyi Galbeed region, your tribe from Berbera to Hargeisa to Wajaale will vote for you. Only your tribes. You do not represent anyone except your tribe since those who castes the ballot were only your kin. If the Wowqoyi galbeed or Awdal region is divided by five or six districts based on population, the candidate would have been forced to appeal to everyone in order to get elected since different sub clans live in the zone.

 

It is the Somali style 4.5 with clan elders selecting those who represent their clan. I don't know yet the final tally, but so far, no single female had been elected. If you want a seat for your clan, you don't need to be selected by the party hierarchy , but the clan elders. And if you wish to be selected by the clan you must be willing to join their Qat sessions and other ugly places to spread the cash. Since Somaliland females like most Somali women are conservatives in terms of moral behavior and spending habits, they wouldn't be willing to join Qat sessions other clan chieftain infested gatherings. The clan elder goes to the party and asks a slot for their candidate and if that party cannot find a seat to run, they will go to the next.  If it is a clan thing, a woman married to the wrong tribe might not serve the interest of the clan, so women do not need to apply.  Yet, the Nairobi NGO's are demanding Somalia to have 30% female quota for the coming Somali parliament.

 

Same example goes within the city council. For example, if you want to be the mayor of Mogadishu , you must run city wide, but if you want to be a Councillor for Waaberi or Madina, you only run that district, and you must seek votes from every citizen of the district, as well , the mayor of Mogadishu must appeal to the citizens of the city regardless of their tribe. In Hargeisa , every city council will run city wide and only asks votes to his clan. Later, the ministry of interior selects the mayor and asks certain Councillors to back him up.  There is no intensive for anyone to look beyond his clan. There were no debate at all to improve the system that took place 20 years ago. Everyone can be a mayor if gets the blessing of the interior minister. And once elected, he must take the cash monthly to the minister in order to hold the seat. This was confirmed to me by a former mayor.

 

As you could see, for twenty years, they refused to improve the system or make it more democratic. Furthermore, these elections not only degrade the rule of law, but they also making things regressive. Except very few, none of those elected represent their parties. When they go to the parliament, they represent their clan and vote according to their clan or whoever pays them. Just like in Mogadishu parliament where presidents and premiers buy parliamentarians for motions to depose someone, here in Hargeisa, they get paid and vote accordingly.  When the Berbera port was in the process of transferring to UAE, millions were brought and divided between the Wakiilada including Cirro and his group. They passed the next day without even a debate. The opposition parties might become allies for one month to select the speaker, and after that act, they will go separately.  In a system based to keep the status quo and avoid the emergence of any changes that might wreck the separatist agenda, Somaliland might vote to get the badly needed money from the NGo's , but the new election will not kick start a new economy or jobs for the youth. 

 

Some might think the spoiler Faysal Waraabe have some support. He doesn't even have more than 5% . In order to get clan chiefs, get a slot in his party,  everyone must deposit to him $10,000 non-refundable to his account. They cannot replace him even after twenty years. If that isn't dictatorship , I don't know. When was the last time the Somaliland parliament debated an issue? not one single budget item proposed by Biixi was ever refused or changed including $9 million dollar budget for the " Madaxtooyada". The last time budgets were not passed or changed were during the Rayaale administration. Voting and elections supposed to have consequences by bringing change. Not this one.

 

The UGLY.

 

The SNM Habro really fear democracy and representation, and are doing all kind of tricks in the book to keep their clan hegemony.  In 2005, they based the parliamentary seats based on 1960 districts. How in the world that today's population would compare those of 1960?. How Sool which has six or more districts like: Taleex, Laascaanood, Caynaba, OOg, Widhwidh and Boocame compare to the fake region created by Cigaal called Saaxil. Sool has 12 and Saaxil 10, and Awdal with almost 90,000-100,000 has 13. . In 2005, Saaxil or Berbera--the only other districts that was subtracted from Woqoyi Galbeed Sheikh and Caddaado-- had 32,000 votes and got 10 seats. Saaxil never ever passed 45,000 mark with even children voting. They should not have more than 5 if rules are applied. 

 

The bizarre thing is among the 12 Sool seats, the east Burco guys got 7 of the 12. Of course, those clans dominate Caynabo, Sool, but that district off set  by Buuhoodle which is on of the largest districts in Togdheer. It is pure theft by the Habro. Thus, the Habro increased their total tally from 56 to 61 this time around. Furthermore, there is zero seat for the east Sanaag community. Certain area of the east might not be accessible for vote due to their association with Puntland, yet, as always,  those area that cannot be accessed by Somaliland had representation through selection by the local clans. 

 

 

Somaliland has five regions; Awdal , Woqoyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sanaag, and Sool. If you divide by clan, you got Awdal, Sool and East Sanaag (2.5), by Awdalites and the Ha...ti,  while Woqoyi Galbeed, Togdheer and 45% of Sanaag is for the Habro. The Harti has the largest land mass in Somaliland. Since Hargeisa is a big city, it is shared by us Awdalites, the 100,000 Oromo, the Ha..ti, those from Godey and many more from southern Somalia.  Believe me if things were done in the right way, the Habro will be lucky to get 50% of vote. Sanaag is 35% Maakhir region ( Laasqoray, Hadaaftimo, Dhahar and 30% of Caarigaabo, and the Golis mountain range bordering the Bari region. The Garaad community could be 15-20 % of Sanaag. Now are you telling me Ceel Af weyn and Gardadag plus majority of Ceerigaabo represent the 10 seats of Sanaag? No way Jose. Sanaag the largest province in the whole Somali republic cannot be compared a town like Berbera which cannot grow its population due to the hot climate.

 

Foks, it is all about gerrymandering in steroids. 

 

Before we leave the ugly side, let me also mention the fraud that took place in some places. In Awdal,  many ballots were decided by a dozen or few hundred votes. A community which had one or two seats in the last election got four thanks to the chief election officer stealing votes. During the tabulation, hundreds of votes were taken from one candidate to another. In Zaylac, in order to give a leg up to the Jesus community who couldn't even muster 3,000 votes, a minister went there and stuffed ballots while throwing out the election monitors for four hours. In the big cities the election was mostly fair. 

 

Now let us focus on the population thing.

 

There is a difference between the eligible voters and registered voters. The eligible voters are those who are over 18 years old who are allowed to cast the vote. Registered voters are those who were registered just over a month ago in Somaliland. We have been told that they number of registered voters to be over a million. Of course some might not show due nomads moving while others were unable to cross borders back and forth or other reasons like sickness or distance. Yet,  in Somalind every election produced between 500,000--600,000,  with even 12 years old children voting.  People might assume unregulated urban housing and spread-out cities like Hargeisa could have a million or more. 

 

In regulated urban centers, a 20 floor Highrise building might contain two thousand residents while an acre of land might accommodate five or more houses. In unregulated centers like Hargeisa a hundred house might occupy a kilometre square of land . Imagine, Maroodi Jeex (Woqoyi Galbeed) which is comprised Hargeisa, Gabiley , Arabsiyo, Wajaale, Salaxley and Baligudle could only muster 260,000. Hargeisa alone couldn't reach 170,000. What that tells you?

 

Just like politics, clan numbers are fought like one's life is depending on it. I can safely say that despite propaganda, Somaliland is less than 2 million people or 1.5 max. I divide them in three region. From Berbera to Lowyacado could be 750,000 including the 100,000 Oromo internally displaced people. Another 750,000 is north of Berbera to Tukaraq and Sanaag . 

 

I want to conclude that voting is a good thing always . The other good thing is that a large number of young men who are less than 40 years old are entering the parliament. In Awdal ,almost all of them were university graduates who are very young. 

 

Let us hope for the best.

[Che -Guevara]

The exponential growth of the Oromo population is amazing. Somalis would be a minority in Puntland and Somaliland at this rate. 

The election was a good exercise, but in practical terms, it won't change anything.

[galbeedi]

Che,

they were 100,000 seven years ago in Hargeisa alone. tens of thousands in Borama, Boosaaso and other places,

The Gaas Dhagoole tribes can not hold blue color jobs, without these Oromo towns would shut down. Even in Jigjiga, every work that needs skill is done by others whether it is construction, restaurant, mrchanical or labour

[galbeedi]

5 minutes ago, Apophis said:

The story should be how not one woman was elected. In Kenya they solve this by having seats where only women are allowed to contest, to shore up the numbers

You raised a good point.They could have accommodated women if they even tried little pit. In this election, they just prepared the boxes without passing any laws.  I know that I took a clan route to needle our Habro cousins, bust unless we remind them to fix these outdated system they just keep celebrating like they won the gold. If they are the majority, they should not fear improving the system.

 

 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Galbeedi as usual you are biased again. You have been to long. Analysing koonfurians and their  silly politics. Where on earth did you get that the international community is pressuring Somaliland to hold elecions. This story doesn't add up. Another news for you buddy  80 percent of Somaliland elecions were payd by the Somaliland government. Look it up its was done by the Somaliland govt. As for your claim that the h@rti land is bigger in Somaliland then the duriyad territories is just pure nonsense.  Are you telling me  30 percent  of sanaag and 60 percent of Sool is bigger then  70 percent of sanaag togdheer saaxil Maroodijeex. Keep in mind the habarjones families live as far as waqdariya  near laasqoray.   The elecions were fair and squere were transparent and were conducted very well. Surely I will admit there were some irregularities in zeila. Due to ismail cumar guele next door who send his tribes men and motivated them. To  get more seats in selel. In all all it was a pretty good day for Somaliland. 

[galbeedi]

Xaaji,

I agree. The election was fair and free mostly. As I said the people had done their duties .Yet, elections are not just putting boxes and counting. It should strengthen the bond of communities, and minimize the tribal fragmentation of the Somaliland. Every where people are trying to reduce tribal politics. That is why you don't have the party of the Irish, Germans, Mexicans or Africans.

What does it take to divide Borama in six wards and let the candidates run in a definied district or ward within the city. If you join 26 june  and Gacan Libaax in Hargeisa and make them a ward which might have different clans, the candidate is forced to appeal to the people of ward, and if he doesn't deliver they might elect another one for the next election.

Tell me, where in the world do people run for parliament from Zaylac to Dila or city councilman running for all of Hargeisa. This is not a rocket science.

On the issue of land mass, It was a figurative speech. It  might be hard to define exactly which is bigger, but eyes don't lie. My argument is how Berbera (Saaxil) could have the same seats as Sanaag or just less than two of Sool which is ten times bigger than Berbera in terms of land mass and six major districts.

Just look this map..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Duufaan]

In 

2 hours ago, galbeedi said:

Xaaji,

I agree. The election was fair and free mostly. As I said the people had done their duties .Yet, elections are not just putting boxes and counting. It should strengthen the bond of communities, and minimize the tribal fragmentation of the Somaliland. Every where people are trying to reduce tribal politics. That is why you don't have the party of the Irish, Germans, Mexicans or Africans.

What does it take to divide Borama in six wards and let the candidates run in a definied district or ward within the city. If you join 26 june  and Gacan Libaax in Hargeisa and make them a ward which might have different clans, the candidate is forced to appeal to the people of ward, and if he doesn't deliver they might elect another one for the next election.

Tell me, where in the world do people run for parliament from Zaylac to Dila or city councilman running for all of Hargeisa. This is not a rocket science.

On the issue of land mass, It was a figurative speech. It  might be hard to define exactly which is bigger, but eyes don't lie. My argument is how Berbera (Saaxil) could have the same seats as Sanaag or just less than two of Sool which is ten times bigger than Berbera in terms of land mass and six major districts.

Just look this map..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Galbeedi Haji

In 1960 H group occupied 55% of north Somalia. Today it probably close 45% of north Somalia. The Habro had made some huge gains from Burco, Caynabo , Ceel afwayn, Ceerigaabo and even Buuhoodle district but still Habro group only accupied 35% of north from 20% in 1900 when UE arrived. The creation of Putland did not help the north H group. The northern H group never had problem dealing the Habro group before alone. As long as putland claims northern H group I see the problem for H northern group.

[galbeedi]

Duufaan,

The Putntlaqnd project undermined the northern H , except C/laahi Yusuf all other leaders were  " Qawda maqshii waxna ha u qaban"

When I was in Burco in early 1982, 20% of the city was H. there were major hotels and businesses owned by them. In the next election, you can muster 100,000 and depose the SNM boys from power and set the agenda. you are culturally different than the Machiavellian  Puntlanders. Bring your strength here and push a unity agenda. 

just like the HAG and D block take advantage of the absence of Somaliland, The SNM Habro are taking advantage from the divisions of the H group between Puntland and Somaliland. It is time to defeat them through ballot boxes and set a unity agenda within the system.

 

 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Galbeedi if the. Garaad clan failed to unite  with their kin in garowe. Why on earth do you think they can set up a party  and  dismantle Somaliland from with in. They will just not vote or low turn out and Somaliland govt will just not care. And you will see much of the same in the near future. 

[galbeedi]

They don’t need to dismantle anything. Those who have the votes set the agenda . 

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Mogadishu is the refugee for disgruntled people who couldn't keep up with Somaliland. Lol

[Arafaat]

Galbeedi,
Your assessment couldn’t be more wrong, these were the most positive elections that have taken in place in Somaliland history and have led to the most divers Parliament and Council’s. I don’t like to mention clan names but the Parliament is now more divers then ever, with more young people who have not voted along clan lines. There have been more non-Habro members elected in to Parliament then ever before, but you wouldn’t know that as you have been quite ilinformed and already taking a stand for without knowing the facts. Please check your statements before presenting them as facts. 

The only two factors that are justified here is to critique that no women were elected and the needs for a social and political contract between Somaliland government and Sool/Sanaag communities still remaining.