Desert Flower: The Dubai Thread.

[DraGon]

Action you are right there is nothing wrong with diversification, after all the oil is not going to last forever.

UAE has a growing population and what is a better investment than human resource. Look at Japan a country without any natural resource is now the second largest world economy. How can you explain that???

FYI real estate and the Airline industry are the two most financially volatile investments in the market. Rememeber the Big real estate investment in england some years ago i believe by the Reichman family??? What happened?? Remember Donald Trump?? I think he is filing for bankruptcy now.

There is no one Airline company in the world that is not subsidized or have been bailed out by there governments one way or the other. Two of the largest Canadian Airline some years ago were forced to merge for economical reasons.

My point is all it takes for the Dubai cards to start falling is when another country with equal money, equally invests in real estate or its Airline and that my friend is when Dubai will be turned into a ghost town over nite.

About tourism!!! what is there to see in Dubai by the way???? Other than shopping.

[NGONGE]

^^^^

What's there to see in Dubai? :confused:

Sounds like you've been reading a different thread, saaxib!

[DraGon]

Ngonge granted its a beautifully city but there are alot of other equally beautifully cities around the world. I live in one...Toronto

I will rather go on a safari in Africa any time of the day than visiting another city just to admire some structures.

[LANDER]

I find it Ironic that the western countries are rightly concerned about peaking oil reserves with respect to demand and yet the very countries whos economies depend souly on oil exports seem to be layed back and less concerned. UAE out of the gulf countries seems to have done the most to try and diversify its economy, but even they have done very little to meet the coming depletion of major oil reserves. If it were to happen today, our arab friends would find themselves in a predicament similar to any third world country in a hurry. Maybe these tall sky scrappers will serve as tourist attractions when all the major business will have left and they look like deserted haunted buildings. Who knows exactly what their rational is, but they better get their act togheter in the next few decades. http://www.oilcrisis.com/

 

 

http://www.economymodels.com/oil.asp

 

Oil

The rise of oil production (and oil consumption) has coincided with the industrial revolution. Some go as far as attributing our rapid growth in the last century to easily accessible and cheap oil. Historically, expensive oil has tended to cause or coincide with recessions, and cheap oil has coincided with growth and prosperity. Not quite what one would expect if the oil price were determined mainly by demand variations. No doubt, oil has been and still is very important to the global economy.

 

Up until the seventies, oil production and consumption tended to increase at a rapid pace. Then came oil sheiks, the oil crises and increasing oil prices. The immediate effect was economic and political turmoil. The longer term effect was increased exploration efforts and energy savings. The oil consumption has gone up somewhat since the seventies, but the peek of oil consumption per capita is far behind us.

 

One of the results of the oil crises was feeling that oil might run out. Known oil reserves would only last for a few decades into the future. But time passed by and oil did not run out. In fact remaining oil reserves seemed to increase each year rather than deplete. Today the general consensus is that oil will not run out, at least not in the foreseeable future. Anyone who thinks differently is a crackpot or a doomsayer. History has taught us that we will find as much new oil each year as we pump from the ground. Yet, this will not go on forever. Oil is a limited, non-renewable resource. Every time we burn a barrel, there is one less barrel left. Eventually oil will run out, or at least become scarce enough and costly enough so that we won’t burn it all. Before oil runs out, there will be a peek in production. We have not passed that peek yet, but growth in production tends to be slowing.

 

A lot of facts tell us that we will soon see the peek in oil production. We know a lot more about geology and the forming of oil now than we did in the seventies. The easily accessible potential oil fields have been explored, and the most likely places have been drilled. It is becoming increasingly harder to find new oil. There is also indications that remaining oil reserves are not as large as are officially stated. One reason for exaggerating reserves is the OPEC rule that oil quota are determined based on the size of reserves.

 

A likely outcome of a future reduction in oil supply would be a rising price to the point where it would not be economical to use oil as energy anymore. Other outcomes are possible as well. One might think that it would be rational for the oil producing countries to restrict production in anticipation of a significantly higher oil price. There are, however, a number of reasons why they don’t.

 

As mentioned before, world oil consumption per capita has dropped from the peak value. This is mainly due to saving and alternative energy sources. In many countries there have been government efforts to reduce the dependency on oil. The high oil prices in the seventies acted as a catalyst to this process. Many OPEC countries, especially in the Middle East, with decades of oil production still in the ground are afraid that increasing oil prices will speed up this process. Also, a drastic rise in oil prices might throw the world into a recession, and many oil producers have major investments in the world stock markets. A more sinister explanation could also be contrived. Maybe the Middle Eastern oil producers anticipate a drop in world oil supply a few years from now. If oil is allowed to be cheap for a few more years, the rest of the world may not notice that oil supply is drying up. After several years, there would be no competition left, and the world would still be heavily dependent on oil.

 

There are other explanations as well. Many of the oil producing countries need money now. Either they are poor, in war or have gotten used to steady incomes from oil production. Especially for the democratic countries, there is usually no incentive for the politicians not to maximize oil incomes. These countries tend to call for higher prices and cuts in production and then produce as much oil as possible anyway.

 

Basically, the key to long term prediction of the oil market is to determine whether oil supply or oil demand will dry up first. A joker might be the environmental movement

 

 

another interesting link, an overlook from Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage

 

 

By Kenneth S. Deffeyes

 

 

 

http://www.countercurrents.org/peakoil-deffeys270204.htm

[DraGon]

Lander exactly my sentiments.

[Nomen nescio]

Originally posted by DraGon:

Action you are right there is nothing wrong with diversification, after all the oil is not going to last forever.

UAE has a growing population and what is a better investment than human resource. Look at Japan a country without any natural resource is now the second largest world economy. How can you explain that???

 

There is no one Airline company in the world that is not subsidized or have been bailed out by there governments one way or the other. Two of the largest Canadian Airline some years ago were forced to merge for economical reasons.

My point is all it takes for the Dubai cards to start falling is when another country with equal money, equally invests in real estate or its Airline and that my friend is when Dubai will be turned into a ghost town over nite.

About tourism!!! what is there to see in Dubai by the way???? Other than shopping.

well saxib Japan didn’t acquire its economical powers over night,right after the world war 2 devastation the Japanesse government started giving farmers tax breaks to encourage them to grow rice and vegetables. Few years later they became self sufficient and started exporting their products to neighboring countries. they saved the profits they made off their Agriculture industry and invested it in resetablishing the demolished infrastructure needed for manufacturing industry i.e. Electronics, textiles and car production.. few years later and with the help of stable goverment....and then booom.. they become the second largest economy in the world..

So did you see the trend there??

 

FYI real estate and the Airline industry are the two most financially volatile investments in the market. Rememeber the Big real estate investment in england some years ago i believe by the Reichman family??? What happened??

Air travel, real estate development and tourism go hand in hand saxib… you have to give the tourist a reason to visit your country, which the UAE did by setting up world tournaments, trade free zones, Carnivals … etc.. then provide tourist with proper means of travel which the UAE did by adding the top of the line A380’s to their existing fleet of Jets.. and when the tourists are finally in your country have them spend their last dime on recreational parks, shopping malls, and 5 star hotels which the UAE did by constructing 5 star hotels and the biggest mall in the world… now this is not even the best of it, you still have the industrial investments, the foreign trade, financial services which are being developed and boosted as i type these lines....

 

Remember Donald Trump?? I think he is filing for bankruptcy now.

To correct your information one of Donald Trump’s companies is filing for bankruptcy, the rest are doing pretty darn good.. u must have not heard of his recent $5 billion Manhattan high rise project which has a zip code of its own or his new $800 million Las Vegas hotel and casino!!! So yeah.. that old fart is rich no doubt..

 

Originally posted by DraGon:

I will rather go on a safari in Africa any time of the day than visiting another city just to admire some structures.

And do you think ppl come to New York to get robbed or watch its big a$$ rats???

[dawoco]

Dress maker cloth thy self, farmer feed thy family and so on, or something like that....All of u have an opinion on something that has nothing to do with you. You might as well be discussing the structure of buckingham palace-whether to change the exterior or not- discus it till u see red but your opinion means less than nothing because it isn't your country nor is it your money

 

Any simpleton can have these sorts of discussion, what is needed is action and where it is needed is in your own country..

 

LST nice topic, was this the reaction you were hoping for?

[Alle-ubaahne]

^^ Dawaco, Caqliga ilaah kaama qaado, waxay fahmi waayeen baad fahamtay, haa sidaas baan kugu ogahay waligaa. Aloow ha iga kaa qaadin, fariid baa tahay diracad ah.

 

[juba]

dubais success is its own. Why does it have to help anyone else? i mean it took that long to acquire its wealth and prosperity.(just cause oils right there for them doesn't mean its easy! they actually know how to exploit their own rescources something we as africans need to start doing) Every country looks out for its own wellbeing and is only worried about THEMSELVES and THEIR wealth. It sounds selfish but that is how nations reach the top, through greed. Some of you argue that our rich arab brothers should give a helping hand. Why don't we give OURSELVES a helping hand. We can't always cry for help. Reaching dubais height IS possible but we just need to get our priorites striaght and start DOING things that will benefit it us not only in the present but in the FUTURE.

[Viking]

True! Everyone should take care of their own, we should be happy for our 'brothers'. Who cares about Islam and what we are ordained, you know, our obligation towards the fuqaraa and masaakin. If they want to build platinum highways, its their own business! For the misfortunate who can't afford bread, let them eat cake!

[- Femme -]

^ LOL@Vicking...I was nodding my head in agreement at the first line...lol...then you slapped me over the head with the next!

 

Great sarcasm.

[Salma]

Somali ppl know very well how to waste their times on useless talks :mad:

 

Nomads... we've could have built a Netcraper in Somalia by now instead of all this rage

 

Silence, let's get serious:-

 

Hello Nomads,,,

 

"who is ready to help in Constructions, Engineering,Financial issues,Administration,,, anything??!!!!"

 

Anybody,, any volunteers,,

 

"Can anybody at least donate some money to build a small school in Somalia, or a clinic, or maybe a pharmacy?!"

 

"You don't have money, well its ok.

 

"Can anyone help with his/her brilliant ideas?!.

 

NO ONE

 

"Can anyone at least give the others the motivation to do something useful for our Motherland?!?

 

No 1

 

Cry my beloved country

 

Its seems there is no one ready to build our country or learn from other countries.We'll wait for the aliens/martians to build contructions in Somalia.

 

There was a nomad who was fuming with anger, lets keep talking about Dubai's Investments

 

Salam

[Alle-ubaahne]

^^ May be the useless people are largely concentrated in here, lol. There used to be sometime when the Somalis had shortage of useless people. Time has probably changed, as you can see!

[rudy-Diiriye]

is it only me or some of us have become gold diggers! through out history one king or prince was trying to out do his precessor! so whats new!

 

when i wanna think about progressive muslim state, i think about malaysia, turkey, or indonesia etc but not the gulf region!! u telling me some who dont even know how many kids he brought to this world deserves the light of day!!

naaaa!

 

so you might think impression is on dubai today! at the end of the day, it comes down sense & reality!! middle-east us we know today is doomed! i will not invest a dime there, infact i am encourage what is left rest of my family to sell their homes and business and get out! all u have to do, is look around the place! it looks US policy missed up the place real bad!!

 

i see the domino effect come down soon!

[OG_Girl]

looool@FF. I feel you girl

 

Vicking, no need to walk around in a mask , come out why you are hidding behind fancy names "Islam and muslims"? are you only one who cares about poor Muslims? What did you do for Muslims as a vicking or you just use Islam when suits to you? I just can't stand when people use the name of Islam or culture, language , just when suits to them :mad:

 

Classique, as we always say " let the dogs bark.. the caravan still walking " :cool:

 

Dubai rocks

 

 

Salam