We might get a coalition government to resolve the issue according to a Somali analyst.

[galbeedi]

A storm is gathering in Mogadishu and particularly in Halane. While the parliament extension eliminated the constitutional vacuum, , the threat of clashes between the opposition and the government is still there. The constant loud pronouncements of certain segments to confront the government and create chaos didn't disappear.

There are a lot of speculation among the people and the politicians to resolve the impasse and find ways to move forward.

In order to gage what is been cooked behind the curtain, a group of us contacted an insider  who have great access within the Somali government and the international community.

Here are the main points of our conversation.

 

Galbeedi & Company: what is the latest in Mogadishu?

 

The Analyst: At the moment there are no serious instability or violence in Mogadishu, but the current tension shouldn't be allowed to continue. If things get worse, it might seriously impact the situation of the people who are already facing poverty, unemployment and  Covid_19.  To add insecurity and displacement on top of the existing challenges is unacceptable.

 

GC: The government and the parliament got their extension, but the pressure to the government from the opposition and the international community is not abetting at the moment. Is there any movements for a compromise?

 

TA: Farmaajo had met the international community yesterday and there are movements to resolve the issue.

 

GC:  are the opposition willing to accept the September 17 .

 

TA: The opposition never planned to accept Sep 17, and will not accept now no matter what.

 

GC: What other deals could be made rather than go back to the 17 September?

 

TA: The international community is worried about the deterioration of the situation and want to resolve the issue without undermining the Somali institutions. They always insist on compromise. At the moment, they believe the current two-year extension couldn't be sustained without the acceptance of the main opposition. They are devising a mechanism which gives the opposition a seat on the table to organize the election.

 

GC:  What kind of scenario is possible?

 

TA: They probably will not undermine or reject the resolution of the parliament, but they might propose a coalition government that guides the country to one man one vote within two years.

 

GC: What kind of coalition government are you in mind?

 

TA: Farmaajo will keep his presidency , but the opposition will get the prime minister and together they might lead the country to accepted election of one man one vote. Since the opposition had already rejected a Farmaajo led election and refused to sign the agreement authored by themselves, the only way to move ahead will be to find another way. Other than refuse to sign and cripple Farmaajo, the opposition doesn't have any plan B's, so others must find one.

 

GC: Who you have in mind to be the prime minister representing the opposition?

 

TA: For starters, Shariif Ahmed could fill the post of the premier very well. He is an influential member of the opposition and he is more nationalist compared to some others. In this scenario the opposition will have a say how the national election is conducted throughout the country.

 

GC: Shariif as a president is one thing, but does he have the capacity to manage?

 

TA: When he was asked about the sea boundaries with Kenya, he said he had no idea how it was negotiated or signed. It was Cali Mahdi who after 30 years realized his ignorance of disbanding the national army when the treacherous SNM prime minister Cumar Carte told him the idea of the military handing their weapons to insurgents. I hope Shariif Ahmed had learned a lot since then.

GC:  Do you thing a government led by Shariif Ahemed whose defence minister is C/rahman C/shakuur is acceptble to Farmaajo?  how is that even possible?

TA: It is a difficlut proposal for Farmaajo to accept, but it is one of the scenario the IC is pushing for now. A compromise of that nature took place in Kenya before between Raila Odinga and Uhhuru Kenyatta.

 

GC: in this scenario the Galmudug boys would lose the prime minister's position., right?

 

TA: Yes. While large segments of the Galmudug supports Farmaajo, it could be said that the most vocal ones are from Galmudug.

 

GC: Isn't that very strange. The Galmudug boys are fiercely fighting against the government, yet if Farmaajo loses , they will not be getting the crown. In 1991, they fought to depose Siyaad Barre, yet the crown was given to Cali Mahdi. It seems they are not leaning any lesson from the past.

 

TA: I do believe that the majority of Galmudug community and elders support the Farmaajo and Rooble government, but these vocal ones are mostly the former students of Shariif Ahmed and Hassan Sheikh. Ahmed Faqi, Mahad Salaad, C/eahman C/shakur, and Odowa are all former lieutenants of these former presidents and they are trying to prove their loyalty.

 

GC: Does the international community has the same leverage like before to affect the change they desire?

 

TA: the issue of the Somali regional geopolitics is still active. The field is even crowded. Before the major players were mostly western, but now the vocal ones are Kenya, UAE, Qatar and others. There is nothing wrong for the IC to look after its interest , but Somali political players should always have red lines and should never allow anything the degrades the honor of the nation.  They couldn't pass some of the one-sided resolutions in the security council anymore since China and others would not allow anything that undermines the sovereignty of Somalia.  While they do not have the same influence like before, they still have the capacity to create chaos, and at the moment the country is fertile to saw discord among the players and create chaos. 

 

There is no other route than compromise. No one including Farmaajo can win this contest. Soon some regions might be blockaded or disrupted and there are a lot of actors, including Puntland who might make things worse. Most of all,  we haven't seen the future plans of Hassan and company to goad the government for confrontation. No one in Somalia should even think of using violence to reach a political goal, so at the end there will be a resolution.

 

GC:  I heard that in the closed meeting with the international community at Affessione,  Farmaajo had told the IC to limit their interference and demanded the UN envoy to leave if can't assist the government to achieve resolutions with the opposition. Is that true?

 

TA: Yes, he did speak his mind, but that is only one part of the discussion. After the initial heated discussion,  he asked them if they have any other idea to resolve the issue. They suggested this idea of coalition government that will lead to an election within two years,  and Farmaajo  told them he will think about it. Some even suggest that there are already movements on that direction, and the army commander had a meeting with Shariif Ahmed.

 

GC: How did we reached this bad situation?

 

TA: They used  Khayre to delay and eventually deny the implementation of the agreement and they have succeeded ( Wahktiga ayey ka rideen si ay garbo siman u noqdaan wayna ku guulaysteen). They never wanted to take part an election led by Farmaajo. In the last meeting in Affessione, they raised two main points. First the abolition of the parliament and the president to sign a letter abdicating his authority. The second one is the command of the military to be transferred from Farmaajo. The president doesn't control the security of Jubbaland and Puntalnd , yet they want him to weaken his authority in Mogadishu.

 

GC: But others say Farmaajo also had a hidden plan to extend his term.

 

TA: If that is the case, why did he sign the Sep 17 agreement and Baidoa compromise of February? 

 

GC: Tell us about C/laahi Dani and Ahmed Madoobe in these moves.

 

TA: Other than  oppose Farmaajo and drag the time to expire his mandate, they do not have a plan . While Puntland is maneuvering around , at the moment , their geographical  location makes them irrelevant  at the Mogadishu based crisis. 

Folks, according to this gentleman the extension of the parliament wasn't  the end of the beginning, but a new beginning to end the issues.

Ciyaarta waa bilaw ayuu yidhi. 

[Mastermind]

Even with a coalition government it is not possible to hold one man one vote within two years and can not be accepted him staying in power for 4, 6 years from now. Let him hold indirect election NOW and who ever becomes president prepare the country for free and fair elections. 

[Duufaan]

54 minutes ago, Mastermind said:

Even with a coalition government it is not possible to hold one man one vote within two years and can not be accepted him staying in power for 4, 6 years from now. Let him hold indirect election NOW and who ever becomes president prepare the country for free and fair elections. 

You should be telling Deni for that long time ago. He gambled his removal similar way as  Abdulaahi Yusuf was removed. Now you may have Farmaajo for 6 years and many of us will be happy your torture of having Farmaajo for a long time to come

[Mastermind]

5 minutes ago, Duufaan said:

You should be telling Deni for that long time ago. He gambled his removal similar way as  Abdulaahi Yusuf was removed. Now you may have Farmaajo for 6 years and many of us will be happy your torture of having Farmaajo for a long time to come

Sxb let him crown himself and make you happy. The rest of us will crown our own. Let us see who prevails in 5 years time. Deal?

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Omar arte was never part of SNM he was part of USC.