PM Abiy Ahmed Declares War on Tigray: First bullets fired

[Che -Guevara]

 

[dhismahaguud]

“Prime Minister says Ethiopian troops on outskirts of Somali capital”

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Che -Guevara]

RANKING MEMBER MENENDEZ STATEMENT FOR THE RECORD ON PREVENTING CONFLICT AND SUPPORTING DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION IN ETHIOPIA

https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/ranking/release/ranking-member-menendez-statement-for-the-record-on-preventing-conflict-and-supporting-democratic-transition-in-ethiopia

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

16 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

 

Tigray version of u calaacaling to Beesha Caalamka, I guess. The letter looks amateurish, though. Maamul goboleedka have mastered letters like this ee haka soo xirfad qaataan.

[Che -Guevara]

MMA,

They might getting the attention they need. The west is stepping in slowly as Abiy's desired quick victory is not coming to fruition.

If this drags on  for months they will be a better position to negotiate.

[dhismahaguud]

Tplf getting a better deal from Oromo/Amhara  dominated Ethiopia [making up 80% of the population ] is unrealistic.  And it’s also a distant dream to see the tplf  without Eritrea and other rebel groups to even dream about taking Addis by force.  The west has nothing to gain from this poor , mountains land locked tigrai region of four million in a nation of more than 100 million people. This is not 1991.  Tplf is history. 

[dhismahaguud]

The old Ethiopian flag is back.

 

[galbeedi]

Che,

This war will drag on months. If the war keeps raging in the new year Abiy will be history. 

On the front side, it seems the TPLF are abandoning open train and retreating to the mountains and to the tough train. It will be suicide to face openly 150,000 Ethiopian forces thrown to the front. Abiy doesn't care about the causality of his soldiers.

The latest news is the Ethiopian army is stretched long and far away form the supply and logistics of the main bases. Abiy has taken a large swat if land from the south and west, but TPLF forces are intact at the moment without suffering any major casualties.

The TPLF had blown many bridges to cut the supply and had destroyed a large Amhara army already. Abiy also is bombing Makale like a desperate general including universities, a sugar factory and other civilian infrastructure.

Yet, despite all his bravado, Abiy is somewhat making some very strange diplomatic moves in Africa. We were all thinking that Ethiopia is telling everyone in Africa to stay out of this war, yet some African leaders are talking about helping Ethiopia militarily. 

In Kinsasha , Zaire (Congo), during of the visit of Dembeke Mokenon, foreign minister of Ethiopia,  the office of the president said the Congolese are willing to preserve the borders of Ethiopia as they did  in 1940 during the war in Gambella region against the Italians. In fact, it was The Belgium Congo that fought the Italians in the name of Allied efforts during second world war. We heard similar things from war torn south Sudan.

What is going on. Is Abiy asking help already? 

We all know almost all Ethiopian forces are deployed in Tigray and Abiy is venerable if other ethnic movements start seeking total independence. He could be seeking peacekeeping forces in order to redeploy some of the forces in other hot spots like western Oromia and the region of Benishanguli Gomes who are also seeking independence. The Benishanguli are located where the Ethiopian dam is located bordering Sudan, and with help of foreign elements, they could pose serious threat. Last week they attacked Amhara ethnic groups in their region. Every region now  knows  that they will be facing Amhara militia in Tigray falls. 

We already have enough Amhara militia in Jigjiga.

Also, by bombing dams in Tigray to cut electricity, Abiy's case against Egypt is becoming weak. With 150,000 men , Abiy could overwhelm Tigray and take some land , yet he will face a long war. THe TPLF has not even used her last cards yet including the fighter jets they were hiding in bunkers and could even hit Bole International to shut down Ethiopia.

It will be a long war.

 

 

 

 

 

[Che -Guevara]

Galbeedi,

Abiy has apparently asked South Sudan for some manpower. I think the involvement of foreign forces will backfire. People are already tolerating the Eritreans who Amharas hate. As for TPLF, for a few days, it looked like they are losing fast. But they slowed and at times stopped the federal forces' advance. The terrain definitely helps the TPLF, and they need resources. It is not clear where they can get the resources or how they will smuggle into Ethiopia. 

They need the Western Oromo war to pick up. Amharas are overstretched and unlike in the past, every region is armed. As the people most dispersed in Ethiopia, they will suffer tremendously if they pick a fight with everyone.

The TPLF fired three rockets tonight at airforce terminals in Bahir Dar.

[maakhiri1]

Yeah , why though, is Abiy struggling and why in the world UAE is involved and helping Abiy.

[Che -Guevara]

41 minutes ago, maakhiri1 said:

Yeah , why though, is Abiy struggling and why in the world UAE is involved and helping Abiy.

There's even internal division with the armed forces hence his reliance on Amhara militia and special forces. Politically, he really has no base.

[galbeedi]

THey are mobilizing like the largest war Ethiopia ever taken.

For Somalia, it is good news that  the Ethiopian forces are leaving our land. Farmaajo should ask Turkey to replace the Ethiopian forces in the South West, or deploy the Ugandans who are sitting in Mogadishu.

[Tillamook]

11 hours ago, galbeedi said:

THey are mobilizing like the largest war Ethiopia ever taken.

For Somalia, it is good news that  the Ethiopian forces are leaving our land. Farmaajo should ask Turkey to replace the Ethiopian forces in the South West, or deploy the Ugandans who are sitting in Mogadishu.

 

Speedy Gonzales, Mudane Galbeedi, always counting his eggs before they hatch.

Saaxiib, a little more patience and time are wanted.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

So much for the Nobel peace price. The tigrayans will not give up with out a fight.