Is Defeat Now an Option?

[Castro]

^ I am over it saaxib. But US public opinion matters. It matters more then the millions you speak of. If the anti-war percentage hits 70, congress will have to stop funding this war and heads will roll. Mark my words.

[Legend of Zu]

What I am surprised about is how simply is the Idea… ooh we were wrong…we shouldn't have been in Iraq…and blah blah....

 

May be what They wanted to start with was the anarchy it self!… may be what they wanted is to destroy the country and then leave!!

First, You will all agree that the evidence & facts used to back up the war were sham. The warnings from all over the world were " think about what comes after (after Saddam) - it is not legitimate etc."

 

Secondly, the risk of civil war or anarchy was taken into account (with high probability)when the war was deliberated. Then why no mitigation? Were pentagon and anyone else so blindly hoping that nothing will go wrong? any simple strategist will tell you to hedge against the risks or the unknowns. And I think Rumsfield summed it up when he said his famous quote "As we know, There are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know There are known unknowns. That is to say We know there are some things We do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, The ones we don’t know We don’t know.

 

Sxb...I am firm believer that “Anarchy†is what they were after to begin with...

 

Xiin… Now think about this… what will become of Iraq? Have a look at our own country - anarchy - once it starts it wont end unless one party becomes strong and subdues everyone else. Mind you Somalis are one sect and one race. Now compare that to Iraq! Discount Iraq off the world in the next 30 or so years...or add them to the world as small countries with the annoying habit of bickering among them selves.

 

Then again this could be I starting a new conspiracy theory...

 

Cheers

[Castro]

^ And that's one of the reasons saaxib why the eventual withdrawal of the US (with its tail between its legs nonetheless) will not be much of a celebration for me for it will begin decades of instability. My heart goes out to the Iraqis walaahi. The curse of the black gold has claimed yet another nation.

[Jacpher]

"As we know, There are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know There are known unknowns. That is to say We know there are some things We do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, The ones we don’t know We don’t know."

 

This should be voted to be the quote of the year!

 

Castro: Sxb, I hate to disagree but that's more like the written law of the land. Public opinion matters only when a powerful group backs it. Public opinion show whatever took place in Florida in 2000 was a systematic cheating and no one conducted an investigation or congressional inquiry. The movie Fahrenheit 911 shows a clip of what members of African American congress went through. Very depressing moment I tell ya. Never thought such thing could happen to the law makers of a civilized nation.

[Legend of Zu]

^^^ Ducaqabe. what about the last election brah? why did he win?

 

Cheers

[Castro]

Originally posted by Ducaqabe:

Public opinion matters only when a powerful group backs it.

When it comes to matters of war, public opinion matters saaxib. Looking back at history, and this I learned from Chomsky, the degree of dissent of the US population is inversely proportional to the damage its government does. In other words, the more (average, non elite) people disagree with the war, the less likely it is it will continue. So, for the neocon's agenda to stay on track, 'Bin Laden' will have to attack the US with an even more devestating blow than 9/11. That is the only way this war will continue at $1 billion a week. The amazing thing is, and you're right about this, powerful interests (corporations, the wealthy) do back overwhelming public opinions. Ultimately, it's not in their best interest to have a population in the hundreds of millions in their own land against the war. This has been shown to be the case in the Vietnam war (sited in Chomsky's Understanding Power)

 

The bottom line is, an expensive war with no tangible positive results is doomed. If the US economy shows even a hint of hiccup, the war is doomed. In all of the scenarios (except for the one I mentiond above) this war is doomed to failure. The sad thing is, however, that the fate of this war depends not on whether it was just or not. Simply on the awareness and disapproval of the US populace. That and lack of funds.

[Jacpher]

I think he won because he convinced voters he's the best man for the job. Job well done.

 

The point remains that no Iraq pull out without any gains.

 

Castro: I like to read the work of Noam Chomsky. I'll check it out later. Thanks

[Castro]

Originally posted by Ducaqabe:

The point remains that no Iraq pull out without any gains.

Tell me, atheer, with a 15 year war that cost 58,000 American lives, millions of Vietnamese, Cambodian and Laotian lives, and upwards of half a trillion dollars, what were the gains (besides lining the pockets of war profiteers) after the shamed pullout. The 'Vietcong' prevailed in that war, if you remember your history.

[Legend of Zu]

May be Ducaqabe you need to understand what is a gain to you is not what is a gain to them. I think you are measuring gains in terms of X number of dollars or tons of Oil barrels or occupying the country? Could it be they were after different gains to your definition of gains?

 

a quick question, Do you beleive that the war is about the Protection of Isreal?

 

Cheers

[Castro]

^ I think Ducaqabe is referring to the permanent military bases the US will 'leave' behind after the withdrawal to safeguard the free flow of oil. That may be a victory of sorts assuming the resistence (not insurgency) that is now confining 160,000 troops to the so called Green Zone will succumb to a few thousand left behind.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Right Castro, assumption it still remains.

 

LZ, it could be the case that Michael ladeen’s constructive destruction proposition is what will come out of this American military venture. The notion that America went in Iraq to take it back in time and delay its advancement in its weaponizing scheme is indeed tempting one. Especially when it’s explained in the light of Israel’s security interests in the region. After all, an Iraq that’s in chaos and unstable is beneficial to the Zionist regime.

 

But let us look at other side of the coin though. America’s power used to emanate from the so-called international laws, if you think about it, and not from the size of its guns. The Bush administration, for some bizarre reason, has greatly under cut that soft power. The Iraq invasion has been the source for a growing tension between the powers of the west. America has been seen as a reckless power that has rocked the boat; a scofflaw that has shown little interest in preserving international arrangements. From the invasion of Iraq, to its conduct of the war on terror, and to the secret detention centers and the treatment of prisoners, America has no clothes. Today nations are distancing from American policies. Only nations that feel great about their closeness with this Bush Whitehouse are those in the middle east with few exceptions. Few others may fit in that category but generally speaking, America Is untenable position. Intaas waxaad ku dartaa Illaahay ceebtooda ma asturin. They can’t leave and neither can they stay. And don’t know what to do. This administration’s heavy reliance on the supremacy of its tomahawk missile has gained it very little respect.

 

The demise of modern Iraq is worthy of our tears. But it seems America’s power too will fall right with it in that desert grave! And that should be some thing worthy of celebration.

[Castro]

^ I agree with you Xiin. I believe the term that best fits this most certain and furcated outcome is bitter-sweet.

[Socod_badne]

Defeat for the US in Iraq is ineluctable. However, the stakes are too great for immediate and complete US withdrawal. Iraq is a major oil producer, strategically placed in a region that continues to occupy important place in US national strategic outlook.

 

If the US were to establish 'friendly' government, it would be a major boost to US geopolitical assets vis-a-vis China -- its direct and immediate challenger for natural resources. China is growing hungry for resources, namely oil. And it looks to the Middle-East to slake its inexorable thirst for oil and gas.

 

If the US were to with draw soon inevitably resulting in a chaos and power vacuum, others neighbouring nations the US deems 'rogue states' would swoop in and carve up iraq to their liking. Which will leave the US in far more dire predicaments in terms of its goals and interests in the region then before they invaded Iraq.

 

Anyway you look at it, prolonged US stay looks likely.

 

The wild card in all of this that overrides all other considerations is American public opinion. We all regretably learned from Mogadishu 93 how US foriegn policy is at the whim of its electorate. All opinions polls show mounting public calls for withdrawal from Iraq. I wouldn't be all shocked if Bush announced tomorrow the US will with leave iraq completely in 6-12 months.

[Muhammad]

yet another intersting shaah sipping discussion.

 

Thanks Xiin and others.

[xiinfaniin]

Muhammadow, inkastoo aan waqtigii digashada la gaarin haddana bal maxaa ku watay ma is tiri !

 

[EDITED].