With divided Vila-Somalia and lame president , the only winner in Djibouti summit will be Muuse Biixi.

[galbeedi]

The three Amigos plus one.

 

The Djibouti summit,  convened  by dictator of Djibouti Omar Ghelle , is not expected to produce any positive results for the three leaders of Somalia, Ethiopia and Djibouti. If history is a lesson, the only winner in this meeting will be Muuse Biixi of Somaliland.

 

 This Djibouti conference , dubbed as reconciliation summit between Somalia and Somaliland by Omar Ghelle,   is nothing but a distraction from the problems they face in their own back yard. Each one of these three leaders are facing major issues at home, yet their problems are different in nature.

 

Let us begin with the Djibouti dictator Cumar Ghelle.

 

After twenty-two years in power, Ghelle is not going anywhere and he is not going to change. 70 years old men do not change at the end of their life time. Just ask Donald Trump if he is willing to change his gangster methods even after becoming the leader of America. Nine years ago when Ghelle was in the process of changing the Djibouti constitution in order to rule for life, an Arab journalist asked him about the protest at home including his fight with former ally A/Rahman Boreh. Ghelle said, " in this part of the world ---meaning Djibouti---the only ruler people accept is either a dictator or prophet and I am not neither of them".

 

Djibouti under Ghelle became the most expensive island in the world. Just like New York, a taxi cab ride from the airport is $35 dollars. Electricity bills are a cash cow for the family and would cost the average salary of a family, thus everyone is trying to steal the electric and bring the wires to charge their fan in the heat of the summer. With a country with almost zero precipitation or rain and abundance of burning sun, solar panels are prohibited by the state electric power monopoly. A very small group of mafia style families control everything. These dysfunctional families had kept everyone poor and dependent. When people protest demand justice and jobs, he would say: look at your brothers in Somalia, if you agitate in Djibouti, you  will be just like Somalia.  Be ware of what you wish. 

 

As we speak there are huge protest both in Djibouti and abroad. Even in Somaliland, certain media and political personalities have joined the chant of " down with dictator". Since a large segment of Djiboutians hail from Somaliland,  Ghelle might be worrying for his future , thus he might be asking for a political cover from his in laws in Hargeisa. 

 

Abiy Ahmed got a one-year extension from the Ethiopian parliament, but his own outlook might have changed since last year. The evil TPLF are preparing for separation and some even thing that Abiy might grant their wish or crush them which is a lose lose situation in either way. He is also worried about the Djibouti agitations which might topple the dictator and bring new leaders with different priorities. Furthermore, the so called Asab port of Eritrea long predicted to be the new Ethiopian gateway port is nowhere to be achieved at the moment. With the Somali ports out of reach at the moment, Djibouti is the main life line of Ethiopia and Abiy is trying to prop up Ghelle and show his support. 

 

Furthermore, it was the Ethiopian regime that brought back the Djiboutian pilot that insigasted the protest. Also, This week, when the TPLF speaker of the Ethiopian senate resigned to give boast for the TPLF agenda, Abiy appointed a Omar Ghelle ally to that position. This summit could be new approuch for both Ghelle and Abiy. 

 

Farmaajo, the lame duck president, will gain nothing from this summit.

 

I was among those who put a lot of trust and hope in Farmaajo to move Somalia to the right direction and pull this country out of the political hole once for all. I knew the task was huge and difficult to achieve, and  I wasn't expecting for  Farmaajo to fix things just eight months before his term ends. Yet, I was shocked to see Farmajo failing to lead the next agenda and  been reduced as spectator while other are plotting with his prime minister.

 

A divided house always fails.

 

The dispute between the president and the prime minister is already surfacing to the public. Since early 2019, Farmaajo was preparing for two-year extension and to prepare for free election which might allow one man one vote. In order to achieve that goal major regions like Lower Shabelle, Jubbaland and Hir-Shabeele should be cleared and pacified from the threat of Al-shabaab. According to insiders these extension terms might not have include the prime minister. 

 

According to my sources, Farmaajo wanted to establish the Galmudug state government in the summer of 2019 and select a new prime minister either from the Unaka community or from Galmudug region and gear for two years of extension. Changing the prime minister after three years and re-configuring the government to the new political reality on the ground is not a new thing. It is a necessary re-alignment.

 

Mr. Khayre decided to drag his feet and slow down the process including the formation of Galmudug. It took him two years to finish a process that could have taken three months. Now, the prime minister allied himself with the opposition and rejects any formula that might lead to one man one vote. Farmaajo and company argue that almost every region except Somaliland could take the election including Baydhabo, Marka, most of South west region, Jawhar and Beledwyine, Galmudug and Puntalnd. Yet, no election could be held without first agreeing with Puntland , Jubbaland and Hir-Shabeele. The international community or the sixth community of Somalia is insisting that in order for the election to be legitimate and quarrel free , all stake holders including regional governments and opposition parties must agree on reasonable and achievable road map.Since 2004, every Somali election was accepted by everyone and no one is willing to hold a disputed or boycotted election. 

 

Now with the quarrel of top leadership, a man without no constitutional authority to pass legislation in  the parliament had initiated his own road map for the election. Since everyone is smelling the blood in the water, there will be more sharks to bite the top leadership. Not only Mr. Cabdi Hashi the leader of the senate initiates his own agenda, he recruited the heavyweights of quarrel politics of Somalia like C/raxman Faroole, Juriile and Fatmaajo nemesis Fartaag. 

 

The question we are all asking is why a president with zero relationship with Puntland, Jublaand , Mogadishu section of Unaka and segments of Galmudug ,would fight the only ally he had left--The prime minister. Some would say that end game fights are always expected just as Cumar Sharmaarke went against Hassan Sheikh and C/weli Gaas run against Shariif Ahmed. Yet, I am wondering what is the next move of president Farmaajo? Is he going to fire Khayre and appoint a new prime minister who could maneuver the land mines of the opposition?, does he have any plans to involve Muuse Biixi for the future?

 

What could he possibly gain in Djibouti today? . Unless he got a surprise card in his sleeves, I do not see any achievable goals while eight months remained in his term. Certainly Abiy want Farmaajo to come back, but he could not help him at this stage of the game.

 

Also, the useless international community who foots the bill always try to initiate useless meetings at the end of the road. They will squeeze you when you are down. Farmaajo, like Omar Gheelle and Abiy will smile to the camera and each will go home empty handed. The same cannot be said about Muuse Biixi.

 

Biixi will gain from the weakened Farmaajo.

 

At the beginning of his term and even two years later, Muuse Biixi was the most venerable among these four leaders. Although huge unemployment and stagnation has deepened the crises in Somaliland, the people in general adapted to the status quo since there are no any real changes on the horizon. Muuse Biixi waited and waited until the dysfunction of southern Somalia showed its cracks. Since many Somaliland members of parliament are double agents, Biixi knows the internal politics of Mogadishu before it even surfaces to the public.

 

Hargeisa waxa laga haya war sheegaya waar " Laangadhuhu inta uu dhutiyayo waa in wax ka qaadana."

 

My sources told me that Biixi is demanding the renewal of the old new deal signed in London and Istanbul. Unlike Addis Ababa, where he met Abiy Ahmed without preparation, this time Biixi is ready to get his agenda through in Djibouti. In order to get a huge cash , Biixi will demand commitment and grantee from the American envoy and others before he signs off any agreements. On the other hand, Biixi also knows that a contract signed with a lame duck president with a divided house in Mogadishu , will not be worthy of the paper it was written. This game of chicken supervised by the international community and leaders like Omar Ghelle will be among many signed for the last ten years. 

 

In that case , I do believe Muuse Biixi will be the winner of the fake Djibouti summit.

 

 

[Suldaanka]

Cheeseman cid walbaa waa ka marsatay cardkaa waa doorkii Somaliland ka marsanlahayd.

 

[Tillamook]

I am in favor of bringing our erstwhile hapless h@bros in the north back in from the cold. 

In the new Federal Somalia, it is important for all stakeholders to have an equal opportunity and shot of leading the nation forward.

I have previously stated that somaliland has always had its demand, labeled with its price, waiting for the day for an astute politician and leader in Villa Somalia to come along to settle the account. Former Somali presidents after examining the demands from somaliland and finding the price was exactly twice as great as they were willing to pay, spurned and ignored the political elites in Hargaysa. 

We will see if, this time, Farmaajo and his entourage have the essential negotiating and leadership qualities to bridge the divides and keep our nation matching forward.

[cadnaan1]

Waa uun iska shimbirayhow heesa.

Shirkan dowlada America ayaa wadato danta ay leedahay  lama oga waxaan ogahay inaysan Dan Somali kasoo baxeenin markaad fiiriso wefdiyada ka socda dhinac walba shirkan waa shir dhaqaalo iyo ganacsi.

[Tillamook]

19 minutes ago, Suldaanka said:

Cheeseman cid walbaa waa ka marsatay cardkaa waa doorkii Somaliland ka marsanlahayd.

 

Lol

Cheeseman si fiican u marsada oo dadkiina dhinac ka soo raaca! 

Viva Somalia  

[maakhiri1]

Tillamook has a point,  .Biihi is Somaliland, has complete control and can decide  what he wants, n change course. The parliament is illegitimate  the opposition is nonexistent and week, he Controls the triangle and  can change their course without an issue . His Habar A controls all key positions in SL.

Farmaajo and Mogadishu  on other hand is different beast. Both have something to gain, if willing and courageous. 

[Suldaanka]

1 hour ago, Tillamook said:

Lol

Cheeseman si fiican u marsada oo dadkiina dhinac ka soo raaca! 

Viva Somalia  

LOL

A case of lost in translation. That vernacular I paraphrased may have different meaning in the South.  

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

1 hour ago, Tillamook said:

Lol

Cheeseman si fiican u marsada oo dadkiina dhinac ka soo raaca! 

Viva Somalia  

Dadkee ma reer budhudhuqland baanu isku dad nahay. War beenta jooji ninweynbaad tahay. Wax Somalia layidha majirto 1991 ba u dambeyse. Wa harag waxa meesha yaala. 

[Tillamook]

2 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

Dadkee ma reer budhudhuqland baanu isku dad nahay. War beenta jooji ninweynbaad tahay. Wax Somalia layidha majirto 1991 ba u dambeyse. Wa harag waxa meesha yaala. 

Xaaji Maalaayacni, the only harag I see in here is your aged skinny ass, ee bal dib u joogso.

Viva Somalia  

[galbeedi]

4 hours ago, Tillamook said:

We will see if, this time, Farmaajo and his entourage have the essential negotiating and leadership qualities to bridge the divides and keep our nation matching forward

As you said the price might have been difficult to agree before, but now the equation has changed. Biixi will leave soon the Somaliland scene without achieving anything, Farmaajo is besieged by two failed presidents Shariif and Hassan. The best way to pre-empt the Mogadishu quagmire is to bring the capital to Hargeisa and resolve the issue once for all.

The opposition in MOgadishu, especially the HAG dsection keep repeating about talking to Somaliland or treating them well. You know what, I ask Farmaajo to give the HAG boys their medicine and take the capital to Hargeisa and wait their answer.

Meesha ma hadal lee maam wadaynaa noo.

[Tillamook]

2 hours ago, Suldaanka said:

LOL

A case of lost in translation. That vernacular I paraphrased may have different meaning in the South.  

On the contrary, I too use the word marsasho in all its glorious crudeness, but whether or not it will be Cheesy or Muuse Handaraab who gets the short end of the stick, both literally and figuratively, is something we gonna have to wait and see.

In any case, what matters most is that Somalia moves forward together as one.

[Mr X]

2 minutes ago, TRO - AJT said:

What makes you think that resolves anything from a Somaliland perspective?

A just question. The idea of moving the capital to Hargeysa will solve any problem is laughable.

It is just gifting the problems in Somalia to Hargeysa and for what benefit for Hargeysa, beside the title of “capital”.

And wouldn’t the other FMS have a say on this?

I don’t see it.

[Mr X]

When they start planting trees for photo-op you know the whole thing is a publicity stunt.

 

[galbeedi]

Are we getting here many  double twins of Suldaanka?

1 hour ago, Mr X said:

A just question. The idea of moving the capital to Hargeysa will solve any problem is laughable.

 

1 hour ago, TRO - AJT said:

Exactly.

Why would reer Muqdisho, Puntland, Jubbaland, Hir-Shabelle, be happy with this? How does it solve anything for them?

Well, let me try to answer these questions.

Let me start with the second one. These state you mentioned and Mogadishu have been circling the wagon for 30 years. Every Somali political arrangement was centred in Mogadishu despite its insecurity and problems. Rather than start the rehabilitation and pacification of the nation from the peaceful regions and gradually liberate and secure hot spots, successive Somali governments were forced to put up shop in hostile Mogadishu and spread the insecurity to the peaceful regions.

If Garoowe is stable and peaceful why would a Somali president ride a tank and hide in Villa-Somalia where Al-shabaab mortars could reach him?. 

In fact, I was talking last night a guy from Puntland who told me that when Farmaajo was welcomed to Puntland few years ago with the most enthusiastic crowd ever  a leader received, an elder  told him to establish a second presidential palace in Garoowe and live part time and avoid the tank of Mogadishu. Since Farmaajo is paranoid of everything Puntland , and he refused.

Cabdiqasim was advised either to go to Villa-Somalia and clear the gangs who occupied or settle Baidoa. Yet, he decided to settle in a Hotel in Mogadishu, and finished his term without leaving the hotel. C/laahi Yusuf tried to go different way, but the stakes became high due to many reasons.

So, my friend,  the so called regions have nothing to lose by relocating the capital. In fact, the people of Mogadishu will  lose the billion dollar cash cow siphoned with the Nairobi based NGO's , but they might get a peace of mind. Besides, other than Puntland the rest are just getting out of the gate, and Puntland itself is going no where these days in terms of development and institution building. Every thought Puntlander knows that the tribal contract of 22 years ago can not go on unless real change comes to the Somali situation. They might not even survive another four years if the same status quo.

On the first question of Somaliland gaining nothing nothing, I beg to defer. If one is in the diaspora sipping coffee Late, all is well, but for the average citizen, stagnation and unemployment is the norm. There is no upward mobility. Both Biixi and the one before him realized that  after 30 years , they could not grow the budget little  motr than  $200 million which is pennies compared with potential of Somaliland.  Without being a real nation, Somaliland can not export the huge livestock trades , and extract the huge coastal minerals and other resources . Somaliland leaders are tired of being governors while Somali leaders are accorded the highest level of statesmanship while they are debating village or town type issues.

 

Did you hear Muuse Biixi firing the director of Hargeisa hospital and replacing the one he fired two years ago?. Why would a president of a country even bother to micro manage a local hospital? where are the regional governor or city mayor, or the director general of the health ministry?. It is the nature of the job of the governors.

The people in Somaliland are tired of stagnation, huge youth unemployment and the useless debate of the elite that doesn't improve their lives. With a national capital in Hargeisa tens of thousands of the youth could get jobs and the bride that was lost could come back easily. THe people in Somaliland a decent people who prioritize peace and stability more than anything. The people even tolerate with Biixi and company who are doing nothing to improve their lives. Compare to the Mogadishu crowd who despite getting all the billions worth of  infrastructure from around the world, yet do not appreciate the status given by Somali people.

The people of Somaliland are tired of waving the flag with nothing in exchange. They are tired of their kids dying in the high seas after graduating from school. 

The only downside would be people the  like our Suldaanka and others who say " Hargeisa Unaka Leh" like those in MOgadishu have to accept the new status.

Look just Biixi at the moment. Everyday he is accused of stealing someone else's little blot of land. Habarta dawlada hoose dhul ka qaadato ama Mayorku boobaba waxa ay leedahay Muusaa i boobay. 

You guys might realize, but if the virus lock-down keeps growing many mayors and politicians will in Somaliland will steal  land and issue multiple land licenses and others fraud means to survive.  All that will be put on Muuse Biixi in the nightly news. It is happening both in Borama and Hargeisa right now. Biixi will leave the the Habro quarrel behind, leave the kids table and sit down with big boys as the leader of free Somalia. 

It is an opportunity that will never come back. He knows he will not get re-election and  that position will be accorded to Chairman Cirro or who ever is the next leader of Wadani party. 

On the propaganda side, all you do is hired some of the old guard composers like Mohamed A. Dacar and the rest will be history. 

They will create a new " Waaba beryey bilicsan.

 

 

 

[Saalax]

the talks already broke down.