TPLF elites predict civil war before or after Ethiopian elections

[Che -Guevara]

It seems siege mentality and victimhood are settling in the Tigray. The centralization by Pastor Abiy and his cohorts is not popular anywhere let alone in Tigray.

Quote

Tigray has all the fundamentals needed for a robust nationalist movement to take root with the ultimate objective to seek independence and sovereignty:

A commonly shared historical narrative and myth of origin stretching back two millennia or more;

A cohesive identity, common language and culture; and a homogenous population;[vii]

A historical homeland saturated with blood by sacrifices made to defend it from foreign aggression throughout centuries;

A political consciousness shaped by internal aspirations and external marginalization;

An economy and livelihood with great potential, but perceived to be held back by outsiders;

A deep-rooted warrior culture and military capacity, in the face of felt victimhood and external security threats.

Quote

Yes, there is a growing feeling among the public. It is only us [TPLF] who are saying that we shouldn’t resort to such feelings. We, as the regional government, are telling our people that those problems will be solved and we are telling them to be patient. However, the pressure from the public is different. … All those things pushed the people to the edge. They feel hopeless and are saying that we should secede from Ethiopia

In-depth Analysis: Towards Tigray Statehood? - Addis Standard

ADDISSTANDARD.COM

---

Addisstandard.com

 

[Che -Guevara]

He could lead Ethiopia into three possible outcomes. Go Gorbavich way and watch Ethiopia disintegrate peacefully. For this to happen, he needs to accept the current system is not working and the old system cannot be revived, and nationalism is on the rise.

Go the Milosevic way, he will be accused of reviving of Abyssinia which its ugly history. The only people that yearn for that sort of Ethiopia are Amhara (Serbs in the case of Yugoslavia) who want Amharafication of everything and suppression of any linguistic and cultural diversity, political autonomy, etc. Amharas have a lot to lose in terms of land and influence just like the Serbs who were ethnically cleansed from Croatia, lost their supposed historical land Kosovo and was forced to share Bosnia. Millions are dispersed all over Ethiopia. This would inevitably lead to a violent breakup just like Yugoslavia. 

Or the pastor could become a genuine democrat. This is least likely considering what he is already doing.

[Che -Guevara]

Beating around the bush on the constitutional conundrum

Beating around the bush on the constitutional conundrum - Ethiopia Insight

WWW.ETHIOPIA-INSIGHT.COM

---

Rather than focusing solely on a questionable constitutional interpretation process, complementary pathways through the election delay should be considered.

 

[Che -Guevara]

COMMENTARY: MAKING SENSE OF ETHIOPIA’S CONSTITUTIONAL MOMENT

 

[galbeedi]

Addis Standard is probably the mouth piece of the Amhara and anti Abiy Oromo. 

I see the disgruntled TPLF and the evil Amhara collaborating to undermine Abiy and eventually team up to size power.

Democracy in Ethiopia needs a unifying leader, and I do not see anyone other Abiy. He got enough opposition to keep him in check.

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

Ethiopia : TPLF Defies Warning by Federal Government

The Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has released a statement following the meeting of its executive committee. The statement is one that, once again, rejects the federal government’s efforts to postpone the upcoming election through constitutional interpretation and defies the warnings by the federal government – particularly the Prime Minister – concerning TPLF’s decision to conduct the election as per the original schedule. 

The statement accuses Prosperity party of numerous crimes such as compromising the Country’s Sovereignty and National interests, violating the constitutional order (and consequently of dictatorship), waging war on those who are aligned with the constitution (presumably TPLF itself), and sabotaging the internal peace of the region through spreading false information. This is presumably a reference to the protests in the region that were reported by government, private and international media but which TPLF has completely denied. 

TPLF has, in its statement, put down seven resolution points mainly concerning the campaign against COVID-19, the alleged campaign by Prosperity party against TPLF and the region it governs, the election, and administrative reforms within the region. 

Concerning the prevention of COVID-19, the executive committee has decided that the campaign must be carried on based on “new changes, the conditions inside the region and scientific information” and “in a way that will minimize the economic damage” that could follow. 

TPLF has strongly objected to documentaries streamed via government media services on May 28, the day that marked the 29th year TPLF forces entered Addis Ababa after 17 years of struggle against the Derg regime. The documentaries presented cases of human rights violations committed against political prisoners while TPLF formed the heart of the federal government. These documentaries were perceived by many as a response to TPLF’s rhetoric concerning the greatness of the day and 27 years that followed in which TPLF controlled the federal government until its fall and retreat from central politics two years ago. 

In its statement, TPLF described the viewing of these documentaries as “a call for genocide” and an attempt at “buying power with money.” It has called for these actions to stop and “urged the Prosperity party to come to a logical discussion in which all stakeholders are allowed to participate.”

Concerning the election, the executive committee has called for the national election to be held “timely, as per the constitution.” Otherwise, preparations within the region to hold an election will continue even more intensively. It has protested at length against the decision taken by the federal government to postpone the election. It has also blamed the Prime Minister of disregarding “the right of people to self-determination” and of “waging war against the region.”

It has called on the people of Tigray, members of TPLF, members of the House of Federation, other regional states, the civic society, “nations, nationalities, and peoples of the Country,” and political parties not to participate in this scheme of the government which violates the constitution. The people of Eritrea, the United Nations, and the AU have also been mentioned and asked to “play a positive role in the matter.”

Xigasho

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

Tigray-ga oo ku adkeystay mowqifkooda kuna gacan seeray hanjabadii R/W Abiy

Xisbiga Tigrayga Itoobiya ee TPLF ayaa ku adkeystay go’aankooda ah inay qabtaan doorashooyin, ayaga oo ku gacan seeray diginin iyo hanjabaad kaga timid ra’iisul wasaare Abiy Ahmed.

Bayaan kasoo baxay TPLF ayaa lagu diiday dib u dhigista ay dowladda ku sameysay doorashooyinka ayada loo adeegsanayo fasiraad lagu sameynayo dastuurka.

Bayaanka ayaa sidoo kale ku eedeeyey xisbiga Abiy Ahmed uu hoggaamiyo ee Prosperity Party inuu galay dmabiyo waa weyn, oo ay ka mid yihiin inuu ka tanaasulay madax-banaanida iyo danaha amniga qaranka ee dalka, jebinta dastuurka, iyo dagaal ku qaadista kuwa la jira dastuurka, sida TPLF.

“Xisbiga Prosperity Party wuxuu sidoo kale halis gelinayaa amniga dalka isaga oo adeegsanaya akhbaaraad been abuur ah,” ayaa lagu yiri bayaanka.

TPLF ayaa sidoo kale dhaliishay muuqaal laga baahiyey warbahainta dowladda 28-kii May, oo aheyd sanad-guuradii 29-aad ee kasoo wareegtay markii ciidamada TPLF ay galeen magaalada Addis Ababa kadib dagaal 17 sano socday oo ay la galeen taliskii Derg ee Mengistu Haile Mariam.

Muuqaalladan ayaa muujiyey xadgudubyo ka dhan ah xuquuqda aadanaha oo loo gaystay maxaabiista siyaasadeed intii ay xukunka hayeen TPLF. TPLF ayaa baahinta muuqalladan ku macneysay “ku baaqista xasuuq” iyo isku day lacag loogu iibsanayo awoodda.

TPLF ayaa ugu ugu baaqay guddiga doorashooyinka qaranka inay doorashada ku qabtaan waqtigeeda, si waafaqsan dastuurka, haddii ay taas dhici weysana uu gobolka Tigray sii wadi doono u diyaar garowga qabashada doorashooyinka.

Waxay sidoo kale ku eedeeyeen ra’iisul wasaare Abiy Ahmed inuu inkirayo xuquuqda dadka ay u leeyihiin inay iskood isku maamulaan iyo inuu qaadayo dagaal ka dhan ah gobollada.

Xafiiska Abiy weli kama jawaabin eedeymaha cusub iyo go’aanka TPLF.

Xigasho

_______________

How many laws and regulations their lord Sanaawi used to violate weekly when his tiny community were in power? Abiy Axmed should put this tiny community in their place once and forever.

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

Ethiopian parliament allows PM Abiy to stay in office beyond term

The move comes after elections scheduled for August were postponed in light of the coronavirus pandemic.

Ethiopia's parliament has approved allowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to stay in office beyond his mandate after elections planned for August were postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

The vote on Wednesday - 114 in favour, four against and one abstention - came two days after a leading opposition politician resigned as speaker in an apparent protest against the decision to delay the election.

"The House of Federation has approved a decision to extend the term of all assemblies until international health institutions have deemed the threat from coronavirus to be over," the Ethiopian News Agency reported on Wednesday, referring to the upper house of parliament.

Lawmakers did not specify when the new elections would happen, however, their vote was an endorsement of recommendations by the Council of Constitutional Inquiry, an advisory body that had held public meetings to decide a way forward after the delay.

The body recommended for the "elections to be held nine to 12 months after the coronavirus is deemed not to be a public health concern".

Ethiopia's election board announced in March that it would be impossible to organise the vote on time because of the pandemic, in which 2,506 infections have been confirmed in the country with 35 deaths.

The circumstances meant that the election could not happen before legislators' terms end in October.

The Ethiopian constitution does not clearly address the path forward in the unusual situation.

'Endangers peace and stability'

Some opposition leaders have called for a caretaker or transitional government to guide the country to elections, a suggestion Abiy dismissed as unworkable during a question-and-answer session on Monday with legislators.

The move by the upper house also drew a rebuke from opposition leaders who have accused Abiy of using the pandemic to artificially extend his time in office, and analysts warned of possible protests and boycotts.

Other opposition politicians have demanded a more prominent role in resolving the impasse, arguing that consulting parliament is insufficient because most lawmakers support the governing party.

In anticipation of the extension, oppositions had been speaking out it in recent weeks.

On Monday, House of Federation speaker Keria Ibrahim, a top official of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), resigned from her position, saying she was "not willing to work with a group that violates the constitution and exercises dictatorship". TPLF, a member of the ruling coalition, opposed the decision taken in March to delay the elections due to the pandemic. 

TPLF has threatened to hold its own elections in the Tigray region, home to one of Ethiopia's most influential ethnic groups.

Abiy took power in Africa's second-most populous country in 2018 and has since rolled out a series of reforms allowing greater freedoms in what had long been one of the continent's most repressive states. He won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.

But the changes have made it possible for long-held grievances against decades of harsh rule to resurface, and emboldened regional power-brokers such as the TPLF to seek more power for their ethnic groups.

On Wednesday night, two major opposition parties with power bases in Abiy's home Oromia region issued a joint statement rejecting Wednesday's vote as "an illegal and illegitimate act".  

The parties, the Oromo Federalist Congress and the Oromo Liberation Front, also warned that it "endangers the peace and stability of the country".   

"We would like to express our concern that large-scale mass uprisings which could transform into violence may arise, and this will not only take us back to square one, it will also be difficult to contain for a government already dealing with multiple socioeconomic and public health challenges," the parties said.

Aljasiira

[maakhiri1]

Do we plans to close Somali  border?

We will be overrun otherwise 

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

15 hours ago, maakhiri1 said:

Do we plans to close Somali  border?

We will be overrun otherwise 

Tigrey cannot do anything in Xabashiland marka waxba ha walwalin.

[The Zack]

War Che wali ma nooleyd? Facebook wax la dhahaa soo baxay ee ma maqashay?

TPLF is dying.

 

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

Risk of Conflict Rising Between 2 Ethiopia Regional Powers, Report Finds

Tension between Amhara and Tigray, two of Ethiopia's most powerful regions, is increasing as the country approaches elections next year, says a new International Crisis Group report. The northern Tigray region, which ruled the country for nearly three decades, has been ostracized by the federal government in Addis Ababa, raising the risk of military conflict in the north. The two regions also share a contested border and are at odds over when federal elections should be held.

Increased competition involving Ethiopia’s patchwork of ethnic groups and political parties has been a hallmark of the government formed by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, due to greater social and political freedoms granted by his administration.

But it is the dispute between the Amhara and Tigray regions, the new report says, that  “is arguably the bitterest of these contests, fueled in part by rising ethnic nationalism in both regions.”

William Davison, the Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Ethiopia, tells VOA that Amhara citizens believe that several key zones, notably the Wolqait and Raya areas, were annexed by Tigray when the current Ethiopian federation was mapped out in the early 1990s.

“The problem has been there in some form for decades," Davison said. "It flared up and became more prominent during the anti-government protests [between 2016 and 2018.] It has not gone away and it is simmering away as one of Ethiopia’s major inter-regional fault lines.” 

Adding to the heightened tension, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the former ruling party, has threatened to hold its own regional election.

Plans to hold a vote have led political elites in Tigray and Amhara to adopt increasingly hardline stances toward each other, the report says, noting a recent warning from Prime Minister Abiy that any such act would “result in harm to the country and the people.” 

Davison pointed out that relations between the TPLF and the federal government, to which members of the Amhara Democratic Party belong, are becoming “increasingly acrimonious.”

“People have to be seeking a compromise and we need a political atmosphere to seek that compromise," Davison said. "But what I’m getting at is that we obviously do not have that, unfortunately, at the moment…Whilst we have that situation, it’s going to be hard to make any progress on this entrenched territorial dispute between Amhara and Tigray. So, the problem is simmering and it’s not going away and the worse that Tigray and TPLF relations get with other federal actors, the bigger potential risk there is that this problem with Amhara could turn into something more deadly.” 

Numerous Amhara and Tigray officials, including Fanta Mandefro, deputy president of the region, did not respond to repeated calls for comment. 

But Dessalegn Chanie Dagnew, chairman of the opposition National Movement of Amhara, said via a messaging app that Ethiopia’s regional map based on ethnic territories has been the root cause of many tensions, not just between the Amhara and Tigray regions, but many others.

“I would say it [violence] has happened in most of the areas and it’s not [unique] to the Amhara and Tigray regions," Dessalegn said. "But still, in spite of all these things, I wouldn't expect that there would be an open clash.”

To reduce tensions, the International Crisis Group recommends that the national boundary commission facilitate dialogue by providing information on the contested land and the two regions’ current and former demographics.  

Xigasho

[Old_Observer]

The conflict for districts between Amxara and Tigray is over blown on internet. The reality on the ground is totally different.

There is Agew Ethnic all the way south to North border of Sudan, between Amxara and Tigray. The Amxara opposition leader is correct. He should know, since he is main party to claim districts from Tigray.

What the Amxara are claiming are not Amxara they are different Ethnic. Who makes Amxara speakers of other Ethnics against Tigray? Does the Agew prefer Tigray or Amxara, if they are not going to have their own and are forced to choose bwtween the two?

There is a lot of truths you do not read in most places, unless you look around.



The Amxara ruling party cannot win election in Amxara Kilil
Abiy cannot win election in Oromo
TPLF can win election in Tigray.

That is the difference. This has more reason to start war between them than all the districts they talk about on internet.

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

Popular Ethiopian singer Hachalu Hundess shot dead in Addis Ababa

Hachalu Hundessa, an ethnic Oromo, was killed in the city's Gelan Condominiums area late on Monday, police said.

A popular Ethiopian musician has been shot dead in the country's capital, Addis Ababa, local media reported, quoting police. He was 36.

Hachalu Hundessa, an ethnic Oromo also known as Haacaaluu Hundeessaa, was shot in the city's Gelan Condominiums area late on Monday, Addis Ababa's police commissioner said.

Geta Argaw said police had arrested several suspects, state-affiliated Fana broadcaster reported on Tuesday.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed expressed his condolences, saying Ethiopia had "lost a precious life".

"I express my deep condolences for those of us who are in deep sorrow since the news of the death of the shining young Artist Hachalu Hundesa," Fana reported the prime minister as saying. "We are expecting full investigation reports of this evil act."

"Let us express our condolences by keeping ourselves safe and preventing further crime," Abiy said.

Ethiopians on social media, including the country's ambassador to Washington, expressed their shock at the killing of the popular musician.

On Tuesday, youths enraged by the killing of the musician, who was known for his protest songs, burned tyres during demonstrations in Addis Ababa.

Hachalu, a former political prisoner, rose to prominence during prolonged anti-government protests, which propelled Abiy, a fellow Oromo, into office in 2018. Oromo ethnic group, which have historically faced discrimination, led the the mass protests.

Abiy's rise to power ended decades of political dominance by ethnic Tigray leaders in this multi-ethnic African nation.

His rule has ushered in greater political and economic freedoms in what had long been one of the continent's most repressive states. He was awarded the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for ending conflict with neighbouring Eritrea and his reforms.

But the rise in political activism has also led to an increase in unrest in a country made up of more than 80 ethnic groups. Abiy's rule has been frequently challenged by local powerbrokers demanding more access to land, power and resources.

His pan-Ethiopian politics have sparked a backlash from some elements of his own Oromo powerbase, spearheaded by a media magnate, Jawar Mohammed.

"They did not just kill Hachalu. They shot at the heart of the Oromo Nation, once again !!...You can kill us, all of us, you can never ever stop us!! NEVER !!" Jawar posted on his Facebook page on Tuesday.

Clashes between police and Jawar's supporters killed at least 78 people in October last year after the government tried to withdraw Jawar's security detail.

Elections due this year have been postponed until next year due to COVID-19 in a deal agreed with the major opposition parties.

Xigasho

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

Ethiopia: Military deployed after more than 80 killed in protests

The military was deployed in the Ethiopian capital on Wednesday as armed gangs roamed neighbourhoods in a second day of unrest that claimed more than 80 lives.

Popular musician Haacaaluu Hundeessaa was shot dead on Monday in what police said was a targeted killing.

Protests following the killing, and a sense of political marginalisation, broke out the next morning in the capital and other towns and cities in the surrounding Oromia region.

The assassination of Haacaaluu, from the country's largest ethnic group, stoked tensions that threaten to derail the country's democratic transition.

"So far 81 people have been killed, including three Oromia special police force members," said Bedassa Merdasa, the Oromia police chief.

Gunshots echoed through many neighbourhoods and gangs armed with machetes and sticks roamed the streets. Witnesses described a situation pitting youths of Oromo origin against some of the city's other ethnic groups, and where both sides skirmished with police.

Ethiopian singer Hachalu Hundessa shot dead in Addis Ababa

"We had a meeting with the community, and we were told to arm ourselves with anything we have, including machetes and sticks. We no longer trust the police to protect us, so we have to prepare ourselves," said one Addis Ababa resident, who like others interviewed asked not to be named for fear of reprisal.

The military had been deployed in some areas, three witnesses said. One described a street littered with rocks that anti-Oromo protesters had thrown at police.

Businesses ablaze

Many residents feared Haacaaluu's funeral - scheduled for Thursday in his home town of Ambo - could ignite more violence.

"Security forces have invaded our town, we can't go out to mourn. No vehicles are moving around except security patrols with machine-guns," Chala Hunde, 27, said from Ambo, 100km (60 miles) west of Addis.

"The security forces are putting a finger in our wound."

A tussle over whether to bury Haacaaluu in Ambo or Addis laid bare the political tensions fanning the protests, said Professor Awol Allo at Britain's Keele University.

"It's very contentious. Oromos claim the city [Addis] to be theirs as it lies fully within the Oromo regional state," he said. But the capital is under federal, not regional control.

The state broadcaster reported the arrest of prominent journalist and activist Eskinder Nega, a former political prisoner who runs a pressure group opposed to what it describes as Oromo attempts to dominate the capital.

A policeman was also killed in Addis Ababa, and three explosions there caused an unspecified number of deaths.

Prominent Oromo opposition leader Bekele Gerba and media mogul Jawar Mohammed, along with 34 other people, were also arrested when Jawar's bodyguards refused to disarm during a standoff with police. 

Continue to read