The Executive Committee of #TPLF passed a decision to hold the upcoming election at the regional level

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Holac]

What does this mean Old Observer?

[Che -Guevara]

They are practically daring Abiy. It would be interesting to see any other region take similiar action.

[Che -Guevara]

 

[galbeedi]

Old O usually does not comment Tigray issues only Somali issues.

The TPLF is playing with fire. The federal parliament will decide whether to amend the constitution or set up another date since the term of government ends in October. these are the same despots who controlled 99% of the parliament and refused any democratic changes. 

Abiy should give them the same medicine. A landlocked Tigray can not go anywhere.

[Che -Guevara]

Abiy seems to want to reconstitute the old empire. I am not of TPLF but it would be a mistake not to challenge him. It will be a bigger mistake for Ethiopia to go back to a very centralized system. The best possible outcome for Somalis is Ethiopia to disintegrate preferably peacefully though that's unlikely. 

The Tigray don't want to rush secession. They want to force Abiy's hand.

[galbeedi]

4 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

The Tigray don't want to rush secession. They want to force Abiy's hand.

Abiy can not put the genie in the box. If anyone, I want the Oromo to challenge him and keep him to ob leash or else. As long as Abiy keeps the evil highlanders away from power , we could tolerate him.

 

[Old_Observer]

11 hours ago, galbeedi said:

Old O usually does not comment Tigray issues only Somali issues.

The TPLF is playing with fire. The federal parliament will decide whether to amend the constitution or set up another date since the term of government ends in October. these are the same despots who controlled 99% of the parliament and refused any democratic changes. 

Abiy should give them the same medicine. A landlocked Tigray can not go anywhere.

galbeedi,

I think you are missing the most important issue. I hope it is not on purpose.

The fight/competition between Amxara and Tigray and Eritrea which so far is another Tigray is "who comes/stays on top"

The fight/competition among Somali is who can best keep the autonomy and strengthen if possible.

If one of them loses, they only loose being on Top, but you know that, unless you have joined the weakness of some Kililka politicians that says "too hell with autonomy if its going to be always Oodweyne's bigfoot brethern, the loss is a century's achievement and will be near impossible to bring back.

 

As for Abiy and Tigray, follow Jawar and see what he thinks. He knows better than you and I on this, since Abiy has to first keep the Oromo's. Jawar feels that Abiy will make concessions to Tigray and keep both Tigray and Amxara at bay and fight the Oromo and Somali until they are completely in the bag.

 

[Old_Observer]

14 hours ago, Holac said:

What does this mean Old Observer?

I think they are doing it for their own local public consumption. Jawar does not seem to impressed, since Jawar now feels the Eritrean is coming third time to take the Oromo out of the top and all prefer to use Tigray if possible rather than Amxara who has proven to be incompetent and unwelcome by most nationalities.

 

Unless Abiy does soemthing military, all the jostling maybe fake or he has no confidence on the Amxara and is afraid of Oromo and or Tigray taking the initiative.

 

[Che -Guevara]

Quote

Ethiopia’s National Elections Board said no request for a vote was submitted by TPLF and no organisation other than the NEBE had a mandate to conduct any type of election.

Ethiopia's Tigray region eyes election in challenge to national unity - WardheerNews

WARDHEERNEWS.COM

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Ethiopia's Tigray region eyes election in challenge to national unity

 

[Che -Guevara]

 

 

 

 

2

Quote

Jawar Mohammed, a prominent activist from Abiy’s Oromo ethnic group, told Reuters that the Tigray dispute could destabilise the Horn of Africa.

  “The federal and Tigray authorities are being unreasonable. The Tigray regional council can decide to hold elections and have the power to actually carry out the election,” Jawar said.

The TPLF statement accused Abiy’s Prosperity Party of having no genuine interest in holding elections and that he was using the coronavirus pandemic as “an excuse to establish a one-man dictatorship”.

The PP rebuffed the accusation. “The TPLF’s stand has no constitutional basis. They have no mandate to hold elections. They are trying to destabilise the country in an attempt to grab power,” PP spokesman Awelu Abdi said.

It seems Jawar has picked a side, PP made a stand and TPLF is not backing down.

[galbeedi]

2 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

Ethiopia’s National Elections Board said no request for a vote was submitted by TPLF and no organisation other than the NEBE had a mandate to conduct any type of election.

Case closed.

If the TPLF want to hold its own election, they have to separate first. If the Tigray reject to be ruled by Oromo, then they must be forced and brought by the constitution of Ethiopia. Deep down rejecting Oromo rule means rejecting freedom and democracy. 

In modern politics, shrewd people always find slogans or false cause to cover their real intentions. I do not buy the idea of Tigray fighting to preserve the regional autonomy or the ethnic federalism of Ethiopia. Their aim was to sideline Amhara which they succeeded, yet at the end they are opposed a democratic Ethiopia ruled by Oromo.

Here is why:

First, over 90% of the population of Tigray is ethnic Tigranya. Very few other ethnic groups will ever settle or visit their region. So, demography alone would keep them ethically Tigray.  THey  will not be overrun by Amhara or Oromo, and they will rule themselves always.

Second, Tigray are Amhara light or few degrees behind in terms of preserving the old Ethiopia. While the Tigray are much tougher and organized than Amhara, they know that because of their geographical location and small population (7%), they will be insignificant in the future of Ethiopia.  So,  chaos and anarchy is the only route for them to separate. If they can't rule , then they want secede. 

We should not be surprised or shocked by these moves from Tigray. We Somalis are familiar with the old game of " Cadkanaw ku cunay ama ku ciidayey"

Autonomy is the main goal for the Somalis, and while Cabdi Illey has done a lot to promote Somali regional autonomy, he failed the most basic autonomy which is freedom for the Somali nomad. While the Ethiopia of Abiy is unpredictable, the Somali nomad is walking free today in Jigjiga without any fear and that is big in Ethiopia.

Personally, I will not shed any tears if we Somalis and the Oromos team up and crush the separatist Tigray and give them the same medicine they prescribed for others. Some 20 years ago an Oromo friend of mine used to say, " we don't want to secede , but if we do, we have to rule them for a while as they did"

I for one , I am not buying the Tigray treachery of claiming to be taking one for the team.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Old_Observer]

I am suspicious of any Somali real or claiming, that says one of the two time wasting objectives:

 

1. We Somalis should ally with this or that group to rule Ethiopia. Every horse saddle is made for its lord they say in the west. Ethiopia is made for the Xabeshi by Xabeshi and Europeans together. If a Somali wants to riule it the Somali has to change it from the ground up otherwise the saddle will be too uncomfortable to sit on for more than a day or few days.

2. We Somalis should right now focus on uniting all Somalis in one country, one flag, one state. That is also idea for next generation or next decades, but not right now. It is waste of resource, time and energy at the moment.

 

These are two of the obvious ideas that sound good, easy to accuse others like Illey, and easy to cover one's alliance with non-Somali interest groups.

galbeedi,

Jawar thinks the Tigray are just sending trial balloon from the Executive and not from the CC or Assembly. Jawar is also suspicious that Abiy and Eritrea have certain conexion with the Tigray and Jawar thinks the Oromo should not tip his hand to either side.

What makes you think the Somali should be party to some game that is so remote from the Somali.

Who ever wins the tussle or competion in Xabesha land is for themselves not for the Somali, at the end of the day. If the Jawar Oromo wins, they will be running to form alliance with Amxara or Tigray to rule the place. The Amxara will be running to find an Oromo side to stand with them to rule the place. We have seen the Tigray ruling the place for 30 years with at least half the Oromo siding with them including the Jawars.

Practical issues Kililka can achieve:

1. Unity based on full and complete autonomy from Xabeshi. (Eductaion, Culture, Media, Development plans and direction, local administrations, security..at the top)

2. The Ethiopian government to involve Kililka in its work with Somalis in Djibouti and other regions. It means a Kililka interest rep should be there at every Ethiopian embassy or Consulate. This method is common in federal countries.

3. Kililka be free to join some activities with other Somalis in East Africa. Culturl and language institutes. Same as Turkic peoples have in Euro asia and middle east together.

All this does not need Amxara, Tigray or Oromo. It only needs strong Somali, and friendly relatons with Afar and Oromo the two bordering Ethiopian regions and people.

 

2.

 

[galbeedi]

3 hours ago, Old_Observer said:

1. Unity based on full and complete autonomy from Xabeshi. (Eductaion, Culture, Media, Development plans and direction, local administrations, security..at the top)

2. The Ethiopian government to involve Kililka in its work with Somalis in Djibouti and other regions. It means a Kililka interest rep should be there at every Ethiopian embassy or Consulate. This method is common in federal countries.

3. Kililka be free to join some activities with other Somalis in East Africa. Culturl and language institutes. Same as Turkic peoples have in Euro asia and middle east together.

All this does not need Amxara, Tigray or Oromo. It only needs strong Somali, and friendly relations with Afar and Oromo the two bordering Ethiopian regions and people.

 

OO ,I do agree these three points, especially the cultural autonomy.

One think you and I agree is that since the Tigray were ruling for a long time they understand the moves Abiy is making and their intentions. The Tigray had also shown for the last 30 years to be well organized with development and state craft. They are ruthless and I do not want them to be close to power again. 

Despite our references, we have certain connection with Oromo and I hope their presence will keep out the highlander hegemony.

[Che -Guevara]