Why Somaliland has not been recognised?

[Suldaanka]

 

[gooni]

Sababta loo aqoonsan waayay
Waa labo arimood aragtidayda

Mid wuu sheegay oo soomaaliya way sii kala jajabaysaa hadii gobolada qaar la aqoonsado dhib badan yaa lagala kulmayaa mustaqbalka.

Iyo tan ugu muhiimsan oo ah
Waxa u ololeeya aqoonsiga snm waa ragga gacmaha jilicsan oo muxaafidka afrikaanka carabta, muslinka iyo dunidaba aad uga caraysiiyay.

[Old_Observer]

Short answer:

Method and learning from others:

Morroco and Western Sahara Not good example

Sudan and South Sudan Not good example

Ethiopia and Eritrea Perfect example:

1. 80% of Eritrea and 10% of Ethiopia are same Ethnics (Agew, Afar, Tigray (3) The Tigre in Eritrea are closest to Tigray) sister Ethnic.

100% of Somaliland and 90% of Somalia are same Ethnic

2. Somaliland was British and Somalia Italian Eritrea was Italian and Ethiopia was Unformal protectorate of French/British.

3. When Europeans were doing house keeping Somaliland joined Somalia and Eritrea joined Ethiopia. In both cases half the elites and majority of the peoples wanted it.

4. Elites got diappointed and changed their mind within a decade of the unity. Wanted divorce. Africa signed not to change colonial borders, but these two are an exception. Somalia forfaited this resolution by invading Ethiopia. This is where late President Barre would not listen to advice of WSLF only thinking of quick victory.

5. Tigray/Afar were key to Eritrean recognition. Puntland is key to Somaliland recognition and to some degreee Djibouti and Kililka also have a place since the peace or war affects them directly. They share a lot of things with Somaliland from people to rivers to roads to wild life animals and environment...etc

 

 

 

 

[Suldaanka]

@Old_Observer

In the case Eritrea the State that it was breaking away was not a failed state.

In the case of Somaliland, it is unique in many aspects. This is the only case where one of the two partners in the Union was no longer able to function. The first formative years after Somaliland declared indepedence were very crucial and, in hindsight, cemented the next 20 or more years' foreign policy towards Somaliland. 

This is in relation to America's crusade to restore Somalia in the early 1990s and later Egypt/Saudi's attempts to use the UN to restore Somalia. These two events barred Somaliland from gaining any traction in its independence drive. This was largely to do with the fact that Somaliland was not an sponsored project like South Sudan was or Timor Lese. Had Somaliland a friend with political clout i.e. UK, championing its cause in those formative years, that situation could have been very different.  

After both the US's Restore Hope and UNSOM failed, the world was disinterested in anything to do with Somalia/Somaliland. 

The issue is very different at the moment. Despite those old roadblocks still exist, however, Somaliland has proven many of them wrong. Hence, today Somaliland enjoys respect from those same powers that used to pressure Somaliland participate the many failed Peace Conferences. Today, no one pressures Somaliland. 

The same powers now are pushing for a settlement through Talks. That is where it is at the moment. 

I have very little doubt that Somaliland will gain its independence. 

 

[Old_Observer]

Suldaanka,

The situation is the same with Eritrea except the Eritreans were ready to be anything even Arab, to get out of it. Somalilanders never compromised in the Somali Ethnicity.

Meles used to really respect that. He did not like Somaliland, but he was the type of person who respects people if they respected their identity.

He has met some war lords from Mugadishu who were saying they are related to Ethiopians. Maybe they are, who knows, but you could not say that to a Tigray without looking silly.

Somaliland was still and still now is wanting to do it peacefully and also with good will from the other side as well. Its good principle, but difficult to implement in Africa.

At the end of the day it will only be possi ble if someone from Somalia says, enough is enough. If they want to go let them go and lets wish each other the best of luck and get to work.

OR there seems to be war very likely somewhere in the world. It has to happen soon. Economy is not salvageable. America is already openly and publicly talking about how to not pay the debt. Maybe they will intimidate China before it becomes more powerful militarily and tell it to pay compensation for Coronavirus 22 Trillion.
There already has been 3 cases filed in US courts for compensation to America of 22 Trillion dollars.

The world will change.
Yemen will be different, Horn Of Africa will be totally different, India/Pakistan/Afghanistan will be changed...etc.

[Old_Observer]

Oodweyne,

Somaliland recognition can only come from Internal or External factors or combination.

If the world goes for a shake up then Somaliland will be better positioned to take advantage of it.

If Mogadishu says, lets not keep each other poor and backward, just to stay together in poverty war and backwardness, lets find a way to separate peacefully and unite as a result of being separate. Not become obstacle to each other and not host rebels of any kind against each other.

Or combination of the two. Some regions in Somalia call for Somaliland file to be dealt with immediately. Referendum, separation, confederation...what ever but close it within a year.

Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenya also ask both to formalize something. Example all these countries can have consulates in Somaliland that has Embassy authority. Can sign economic deals except when blatantly to the disadvantage of the other side..etc. Ghelleh is keen on this kind of solution, since this guarantees no war.

I have the feeling that recognition has not really become make or break for Somaliland. If it becomes or rises to that level you would see Mr. Bixi carry a kalashnikov and stir trouble in Galkayoo, Hiiran...everywhere. That frightens Ghelleh and Kililka more than anything else. The collateral damage from this is enough to make life hell for Djibouti and Kililka.

You have never seen any Somaliland leader that will say either recognition or I will resign....That is an indication that Somalilanders can live with the statusquo for some time. Otherwise leaders would have stated either I bring recognition or you can hang me from tallest lamp post.


Somaliland is like Taiwan. Taiwan has a lot of investments in Mainland China. China has never stopped Taiwan from any development.

Taiwan is never going to risk war just to get recognition.

I am totally convinced that Somaliland is not going to risk war for recognition. You can see it on Ghelleh face. He is confident that Somaliland is not going to kill Djibouti and Puntland for recognition.

[Suldaanka]

Quote

You have never seen any Somaliland leader that will say either recognition or I will resign....That is an indication that Somalilanders can live with the statusquo for some time. Otherwise leaders would have stated either I bring recognition or you can hang me from tallest lamp post.


Somaliland is like Taiwan. Taiwan has a lot of investments in Mainland China. China has never stopped Taiwan from any development.

Taiwan is never going to risk war just to get recognition.

 

Technology has transformed the world in a way making the need for United Nations somewhat unnecessary. In fact, the United nations is on its last legs. It has lost purpose and has failed to resolve any of the world's many different issues both small and big. 

Also, another development is the economic power of mega Cities, swallowing the economies of whole states and becoming a vocal point progress, development and employment.

So you are correct, lack of recognition is not stopping Somaliland.

 

[eman yalpsid]

 

 

 

 

3

2 hours ago, Old_Observer said:

If Mogadishu says, lets not keep each other poor and backward, just to stay together in poverty war and backwardness, lets find a way to separate peacefully and unite as a result of being separate. Not become obstacle to each other and not host rebels of any kind against each other.



 

maybe Ethiopia should take that advice since its people are amongst poorest in the wrold and contains many rebel organizations.

[galbeedi]

Disclosure first: I did not watch the video and didn't read most of what you guys wrote here.

Why?

easy. A somali region can not secede from Somali state. Same people, language, history and culture. Evertthing else is quarrel among brothers.

[Tallaabo]

10 hours ago, galbeedi said:

Disclosure first: I did not watch the video and didn't read most of what you guys wrote here.

Why?

easy. A somali region can not secede from Somali state. Same people, language, history and culture. Evertthing else is quarrel among brothers.

Why don't you tell the Gulf Arabs that they share language, religion, culture, etc and that their borders are fake? After you are done with the Gulf, take your preaching to the Spanish speaking Catholic Latin America, then to the English speaking mostly Protestant countries or the Anglo Saxons as they are known, and don't forget Germany and Austria. 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Somaliland has the best case in africa legally  really. It's just  that lack of economic interest from western powers is the problem. But it has shown the world that Somaliland is here to stay  and  that no one in Somalia can  change that.  Deep inside most of the koonfurians know this to the 2 countries. Have been to seperate countries for almost 3 decades this will surpass the short lived union of 20 years. In the later half of afweyne reign somaliland was at war with Somalia. In the end runtay tegeysa. 

[gooni]

Ma jirto dawlad khaliijka ah oo dawlad kale ka go'day ama wax isugu jireen markoodii horeba.

Somaaliya labo jeer dawlad ma noqon calanka buluugga yaa hargaysa la taagay 26kii jun 

Ayagoo indhaha isku haysta bay inkiriyaan taariikhda saxdaa.

Ingiriis yaa gooni noo gumaysan jiray sharci lagama dhigi karo, waxaan suurto gal ahayn nafta laguma dhibo.

Hadii gaal baa nasoo hadal qaaday ee dhagaysta arintu tahay sodon sano yaan mujaahid iyo gaalba dhagaysanaynay waxna kamasoo naasa cadda.

 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Is gooni ignorant of history or does he really believe in his own lies. Somaliland and Somalia had 2 different police forces. 

 Two different parliaments two different leaders. Two different constitutions. The so called blue flag wasn't a flag for only Somaliland and somalia. It represented parts of Kenya parts of Ethiopia and Djibouti. Currently it represents the 5 clan states of Italian Somalia. Two different nations they made a union just like  Egypt and Syria once. We were never the same country not during the colonial era.  Prior to colonialism we shared no state. 

 

[gooni]

Rag ku tashaday inay mugdi fadhiyaan 100 sano waa talo xumeeyeen.

Soomaaliya oo dhan xoriyadii ugu horaysay oo ay hesho waxay ahayd tii ingiriiska ay ka qaadatay.
Intaa miyaan isku diidanahay?

Kaana siib, kanna saar, waa waqooyiga waxay ka dhacday waana calanka buluugga ah.
Intaa miyaan isku diidanahay?

Shanta xidigood tii ugu horaysay yaa iftay.

1luulyo calanka koonfurta la suray waa kii hargaysa laga keenay.
Intaa miyaan isku diidanahay?

Halkaa waxaa kasoo baxay labo xidigood oo ifaysa oo xidig qudha isku noqday.
Intaa miyaan isku diidanahay? 

Gocoshada danbe weeye waxa snm la habawday.

Maan jamhuuriyad gaara noqono

Maxaa naloo aqoonsan la'yahay.

Soo tii ingiriisku dhar gaara noo toli jiray, maxaa talyaani wax noogu daray.

Xoriyadeena aan kasoo bilowno geeridii siyaad barre dabadeed

Dagaalkii sokeeye aan xasuuq u bixino si loo waraysto kun mujaahid oo nool.

Waxaas oo dhan marka laysku soo duubo waa khiyaali aan waxba ka jirin dad muslina oo waalaalo ahna laguma kala goyn karo.

Gaalku haduu dad fiyow oo caafimaad qaba meesha ku ogyahay wada hadal naguma daaliyeen 30 sano ilmo qubabaysana ma fiirsadeen.

[qofkale]

I don't think the Somaliland/Somalia situation is in the hands of the Somalis anymore. In my opinion, how this plays out now depends on what the Ethiopians, regional Gulf Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) & Kenya with the help of the E.U., USA and China have in store for the region.