NILE DAM LEAVES ETHIOPIA “ISOLATED WITHIN AU”

[Deeq A.]

ADDIS ABABA ( PPM) — The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) remains a signature project of the late Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. Conceived as a strategy to secure Ethiopia food security against politically motivated man-made famines,  GERD handed Ethiopia an opportunity to be accused of  weaponising water, a scenario that Egypt views as a national security threat. 

Ethiopia does not recognise past agreements on the distribution of Nile water. “In addition to ethnic federalism, GERD is a political impediment with which Meles saddled Ethiopia” says Aklilu Assefa, an Amhara political activist in Gondar. “We are isolated within the African Union over GERD.”  

GERD UNDER CONSTRUCTION

The breakdown of talks over GERD  points to the reluctance of Ethiopia to agree terms proposed by mediators eager to see equitable and reliable distribution of Nile water. Unilateral decision by Ethiopia will put the West in a difficult position as a mediator. Striking a balance between forestalling disintegration in Ethiopia and allowing Addis Ababa to weaponise Nile water is an incredibly perplexing policy conundrum.

Ethiopian Foreign Minister faults USA for “partisanship”

President  Abdel Fattah  el-Sisi of Egypt lobbied several African countries to support the Egyptian argument against GERD.  Meles Zenawi was versed in competing development theories but he had paid no attention to the commons that oblige Ethiopia not to resort to actions that affect food or water security of another country. GERD exposes the futility of the African  Union when it comes to addressing complex political challenges.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Dr Abiy Ahmed seeks to reap political capital from authorising the filling of GERD but it is not clear how he will take a decision that could further isolate Ethiopia.  Ethiopia is going through a political transition. In a recent AU meeting in Addis Ababa, member countries were urged to prepare for a mediation role if planned elections in Ethiopia result in a disputed outcome. Some Ethiopian intellectuals have expressed support for a compromise that take Ethiopia’s development goals into account without jeopardising Egypt’s food security.  

Another commentator views USA as biased towards Egypt. Three researchers at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs have proposed a compensation mechanism through which “Egypt compensates Ethiopia for the eco­nomic disadvantages resulting from a slower filling process.”

The researchers look upon this mechanism as an alternative way that EU can lead to resolve the Nile “conflict”.   GERD has laid bare the inability of African supranational institutions to address the clash of food security goals of Egypt and Ethiopia in the context of Nile.

© Puntland Post Monthly, 2020  

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