A Blueprint for an Industrialised Somalia

[Haatu]

One of the biggest problems currently facing the country is a lack of industrialised output and by extension foreign exchange. This chronic lack of foreign exchange is one of the reasons the government is so reliant on the so-called 'Beesha Lixaad' or International Community. This also means the government is unable to buy arms on the black market (to bypass the arms embargo) as countless state and non-state entities are able to do. When you live off donations, you must be able to show where those funds were spent. This means the armed forces stayed underdeveloped and the security situation remains insecure.

One way out of this is to rapidly establish industries in a cheap and easy manner to generate the much needed dollars the government needs to rebuild the country and institutions. Notice, I say we need the industries first before we can begin rebuilding the country. It might sound counter-intuitive but allow me to continue.

Firstly, the government needs to establish one large industrial complex on the outskirts of Mogadishu, somewhere in between Afgooye and Xamar. This industrial complex will have its own water and electricity supply as well as all the warehouses needed. The power station for this industrial complex will only supply power to the factories and buildings housed in the complex and will not be connected to the national grid. Likewise the water supply. The reason is simple, the government simply can't afford to give power and water to the country. The people can wait for the dollars to come before expecting social services.

Neighbouring Ethiopia recently built an Industrial Complex on the outskirts of the capital for $200 million so we can assume this complex to cost around that figure. How will the government afford that? The answer is two-fold. We need a Somali Shilling budget and a Dollar Budget. The Somali Shilling budget will cover the cost of the local labour and any material that can be sourced locally. Where will the Somali Shillings come from? The government has two avenues: one is the Japanese system of Abenomics. Simply put, this is where the government prints bonds for a certain sum of money. The central bank then buys off the bonds from the Japanese government in exchange for Japanese Yen which the central bank simply prints (it has the power to do so and does). The government then uses the Japanese Yen for whatever purpose it needs and pays the interest on the bonds to the Central Bank when required. The Central Bank then deducts its costs from the income it receives from the government interest (literally admin costs and the cost of the printing, i.e. peanuts) and then transfers the profits back to the Japanese Treasury as the Japanese Government owns the central bank. You can see how the Japanese government massively benefits from this sleight of hand and why the Japanese economy has been doing so well under Abe. This system is currently being used by both parties in the Libyan civil war to fund their governments and armies. The other way is the Chinese way. When China needs Chinese Yuan to fund infrastructure development or local industries, it simply borrows from government owned banks who magically create the Chinese Yuan on their books and lend to the government at very very low interest rates (much much lower than normal commercial banks in the West). The government then builds the infrastructure it needs and then pays back the loan (over a very long term) from the proceeds (toll charges etc.) and after a while the government just writes off the debt and non-performing loans. This is how China has been able to afford all the amazing infrastructure that country has built in the last 20 years. Doesn't this cause inflation? No, no it doesn't. Despite monetising 50% of government debt the Japanese are still struggling with deflation, not inflation. As Keynes said, as long as there's demand printing money won't cause inflation. Read more about the Chinese and Japanese systems here: https://ellenbrown.com/2019/07/10/how-to-pay-for-it-all-an-option-the-candidates-missed/#more-14224

So the government has the Shillings to pay for the local labour and materials, but where will it get the dollars to pay for the foreign engineers and materials that will be required to build this industrial park? The answer is to introduce a new Development Tax on Xawaaladaha. The proceeds from this tax should go in a special Development Fund that will be exclusively used to fund this industrialisation and nothing else, come rain or shine, abaar iyo aaran, not a penny is to be spent on anything else, even on relief food. With billions coming into the country via remittances every year even a small 5% tax will easily pay for this project and many more.

[Haatu]

Secondly, once the industrial complex is established, the government should encourage local large businesses that have a proven success record (not start ups) to open Textile Factories in the industrial park. These local companies are then to enter into technology transfer agreements (not joint ventures) with large foreign large textile companies (plenty in China and Turkey). The foreign company will provide all the machinery and tools required by the factory, engineers and technicians to help run the factory and train local engineers and technicians, and most importantly marketing for the production of the factories. In return, the foreign company gets a yearly royalty (paid in dollars) and a percentage of all sales. Getting access to foreign markets should not be too difficult as Somalia is eligible for programmes such as the Everything But Arms programme that allows tariff free access for the exports of poor countries. We can also target African countries and the Middle East. This method is how Bangladesh was able to start its successful textile industry in the late 70s when a single company called Desh entered into such an agreement with a large Korean company called Daewoo. Today, Bangladesh earns billions from this industry. Read here for Bangladesh's remarkable story: https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/661218?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents

The government in return will give local companies special low cost long maturity loans to the local factories located in this industrial complex. This will help them with their start up costs and paying for wages etc (it will take the local companies time to learn how to run the factories efficiently and turn a profit). The government will also provide free rent, water and electricity and tax benefits for the first 5 years. It will also provide these companies priveleged access via special accounts through the Development Fund to get the dollars these companies need to pay for the technology licenses and royalties, and imports needed to manufacture the textiles. These companies based in the industrial park will have zero rated import tax and port duties on all goods that go into exports via a bonded warehouse system (basically in a local company spends 1 million shillings in import taxes and port duties on dyes from turkey, they will be reimbursed this money once they export the goods those dyes were made into and they provide a proof of export). In return for all this support, every company based in the industrial park will have to meet rigorous export targets. For example, after 1 year each company will have to export a certain figure (in dollars) and say 75% off all production output has to be destined for export, not the Somali market. The targets will change on a yearly basis as the local companies get better and better. Any company that fails to meet these stringet targets will lose all the perks they get (rent will "suddenly" go up, loans and taxes will become due, and the water and electricity company will begin charging at high rates). They will soon go out of business and will be bought out by the successful companies left (who will continue receiving all the perks as long as they keep meeting the targets). This prevents lacklustre 'fadhiid' companies continuing to benefit at the public's expense. Winners will be rewarded and losers culled. This is business not child's play. I call this system Siyaasadda Koolkoolinta Shirkadaha Cardunka ah. Koolkoolin means to nurture, and cardun is a small infant tree that still hasn't matured enough to produce fruits, it requires watering and protection from the wind and goats. Likewise infant industries, like our hypothetical textile industry here, requires support and protection from international competition until the industry matures and is able to withstand the competition. But these industries will only 'grow up' if you support them and protect them. The barometer to measure this growth are the export targets.

This focus on exports avoids the pitfalls of Import Substitution Industrialisation as was seen in many developing countries in the 70s and 80s such as much of Africa and Latin America. This is known as Export Promotion. The only countries that did this were Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and nowadays China. You can see which countries were successful and which ones weren't.

Once this is done and the companies start exporting, the dollars will begin flowing in. This is a vital period as the government must impose Foreign Exchange Controls to prevent these hard won dollars being squandered on luxury consumption by this new elite (or stashed abroad in houses in Dubai). These funds will then be recycled mostly into the companies in the industrial complex to upgrade their equipment, systems etc. to increase capacity, quality, and their share of the international market. Some funds will also be used for social programmes and national infrastructure. For those that disagree with this, remember these companies only became successful because they were given scarce funds that the Somali people were deprived of in their time of need. So they have no right to spend this wealth they 'earned' however they please.

[Haatu]

There's plenty more so stay tuned for the subsequent parts.

[Dhaqaale]

Somalis don't have the temperament for industrialisation (you need a strong history rooted in something other than religion). What you're speaking about is a "meiji restoration of Japan type" leap...not going to happen.

Somalis are not philosophers, scientist, artist or builders of monuments.That is the hard truth.

[Dhaqaale]

I forgot to add that Japan's clan system is similar to Somalia's clan structure. Japan went through a period know as the "Sengoku" a 150 years of clan warfare between various shogunate warlords. The war initiated, "the Warring States period". This period was a long, drawn-out struggle for domination by individual daimyō, resulting in a mass power-struggle between the various houses to dominate the whole of Japan. It came to an end under the Tokugawa shogunate and Japan experienced 260 years of peace.

That is almost 400 years for Japan to sort out its problems without outside interference and build a solid cultural foundation and unite the country. Somalia is not anywere near that level. We are stuck in the "warring states" period.

[Dhagax-Tuur]

Good ideas. 

[Haatu]

7 hours ago, Dhaqaale said:

Somalis don't have the temperament for industrialisation (you need a strong history rooted in something other than religion). What you're speaking about is a "meiji restoration of Japan type" leap...not going to happen.

Somalis are not philosophers, scientist, artist or builders of monuments.That is the hard truth.

The cultural argument against development has been thoroughly debunked. All agricultural societies possess backward traits before they industrialize. It is the industrialisation process that makes them more efficient, punctual etc. The British in the late 19th century considered the Germans lazy, inefficient and stated they would never amount to much. Today, German efficiency and engineering prowess is well known. Read Ha Joon Chang's fantastic book, Bad Samaritans. In particular read the chapter he talks about cultural traits and how they supposedly influence industrialisation.

All nations go through civil wars. The Chinese Warring States civil war lasted over 300 years. Non-stop warfare, states declaring independence, you name it, they had it. It makes our 30 year civil war seem like a trifle.

[Haatu]

4 hours ago, Oodweyne said:

Haatu,

Saaxiib, all these convoluted plan of yours, which I do not doubt you mean for Somalia to make a use of it, is really a pie-in-the-sky at best of it. If it's not laughable at the end of the day, at worse of it.

And I say that since a government that can't secure the roads of Mogadishu as well as even secure the Turkish Engineers who were supposed to building the road connecting Mogadishu to Afgoye, is not in a position to "enact" any of these plans, or even one-tenth of them, in which you have out line in here.

Hence, perhaps you would have help Somalia, if that is your intention (which I do not doubt it at all) were you to come up a "do-able plan" that can be use whereby the likes of deeply-embedded Al-Shabaab misfits can be gotten rid off them at the back of it. Or even plan that details a way to hold a feasible (s)election for this upcoming end of term of the current government.

That would have help Somalia in its current mess. Not worrying about how to build some form of industrial parks, which is stuff that even countries like Rwanda and Ethiopia are finding a mighty difficult to execute it, even with all their solid foundation in which their respective government has under their belts.

Consequently, it's best to get back into a drawing board and have another go in-terms of what Somalia in its current form needs, as opposed to given us your take of what could only be described as a useless form of a "intellectual masturbation". Which is what your plan(s) for Somalia seems to come across to us at the moment.

This idea is for how to industrialise the country once it has a modicum of stability. Securing one site on the outskirts of Mogadishu and a road that leads to the port is within the governments capability if it puts its mind to it. As for Rwanda and Ethiopia not succeeding, then Rwanda is following a different model, one that relies on Foreign Direct Investment not locally developed industries. This approach will help the country out of poverty, but it will stagnate in the medium term, just like Thailand. Ethiopia used to follow this develpmental approach I described above. Unfortunately for them, the architect of the plan and the only one who understood it was Zenawi and he died whilst the plan was in its infancy. As a side point, the father of the Korean Economic Miracle Park Chung Hee also died before he could realise his dream of fully industrialising Korea. Luckily for the Koreans, the dictator after him understood the plan and continued. Ethiopia's distators after Zenawi didn't and the current fool is actually undoing it. As for the rest of your naysaying, then wax ka soo qaad ma leh. Markuu hankaaga hooseeyo oo Reer Hebel iska celintii uun aad ku taamto, then of course lofty ideals will seem unrealistic.

[galbeedi]

 

12 hours ago, Haatu said:

When China needs Chinese Yuan to fund infrastructure development or local industries, it simply borrows from government owned banks who magically create the Chinese Yuan on their books and lend to the government at very very low interest rates (much much lower than normal commercial banks in the West). The government then builds the infrastructure it needs and then pays back the loan (over a very long term) from the proceeds (toll charges etc.) and after a while the government just writes off the debt and non-performing loans

Haatu,

Don't pay attention to OOdweyne, he can not see beyond the Al-shabaab or his paranoia of one day losing and holding empty bag. As they say revolutions eat their own children , and I have no doubt he will be a victim.

 many  nations are using all kind of methods and strategies to create wealth and prosperity. I was always wondered how the Chinese were able to invest billions if not trillions of Yuan for the world class infrastructure they have built. Chinese cities , highways, electric grid and transportation systems are more advanced than the most developed nations of the west. As you said if they get back some money from the investment and write off the rest of the loans, that is a very clever way of doing things. Selling government bonds to finance projects or use for development is something many nations use today. Even cash strapped Greece sells government bonds

 

Printing money , especially more than the economy can handle usually creates inflation. As you said printing by itself is peanuts. The world had changed both its approach of development, industrialization and infrastructure building. What took 30  or 40 years or more to develop and create modern infrastructure and towns  in Europe , is taking less than a decade in China, Malaysia and even ERdogan's Turkey.

THe old economic solutions of seventies or eighties are out of the window. That is why you need a new idea or people who think out of the box. Building the nation through donor funds whether it is the army or infrastructure is recipe for failure. While C/raxman Bayle and others are doing just fine, they are old dogs trained to sit and stand by their owners (Old economic systems).

While I do not know much about currency and banks,  I have some inside knowledge about two major points you raised.

12 hours ago, Haatu said:

development Tax on Xawaaladaha.

And 

11 hours ago, Haatu said:

This is known as Export Promotion.

The Hawala thing might not be there for another decade. The new generation of Somalis who grew up in the west will not be sending any money back home. THey don't understand the concept of sending money every moths to relatives. So, it is important to implement this development tax quickly. The 5% tax will be deducted from the recipient and the Hwala companies will transfer the money directly to the national treasury. It is not their money, they are just collecting the taxes through their transaction point. 2 billion dollars of Hawala will fetch $ 100 million dollars a year. 

 

Export promotion is what built many nations especially the Asian tigers. Even Ethiopia of Males Zenawi started the whole economy on two things. Infrastructure building and export oriented economy. Early last year when I went to Addis , I have met some business people who export coffee beans and animal skin ( Hargaha). THey told me that almost all exported goods are guaranteed by export bank created by the government. 

Every year milliuons of dollars are lost from Somali livestock traders by unscrupulous dealers from the gulf. AS we speak a thousands of livestock from Somaliland are refused and shipped back. An export bank will make the connections and pay the local traders as soon as these livestocks leave the dock. Our sheep, goats and cows might be even more expensive than the barrel of oil. THe average sheep is $80 dollars and the cow 200. If we send 10 million of these, we could earn close to a billion of hard currency.

20 years ago, as a taxi cab driver , I picked a guy from the airport who flew from Shenzhen, China. This was when China was accelerating its manufacturing capacity around the world. The guy told me that the Chinese were putting a coal fired plant for electricity,, huge industrial warehouse, hotels and telephone for the international traders. Everyone went to China and set up shop. The Chinese garment industry alone is $170 billion a year.

 

Certainly we can not do things the old way. WE need to modernize and build things within a decade. Yet, if our leaders keep listening the foreign aid group and their advice , we won't go far.  Ethiopia abandoned IMF and World bank in 2004 and started building its  huge infrastructure through CHina and others. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Old_Observer]

Haatu,

You need a dictatorship of some kind. Not dictatorship on everything, but dictatorship of something.

Example: If what comes is political dictatorship, then don't bother the people who are apolitical. Traders, farmers, factory workers...just support them never bother to make the farmers league in a village political. They do not need to sing your praises.

If the dictatorship is cultural, for example, if you want to change the nomad to work in a factory 12 hours a day straight, be a dictator that way, but do not bother him once he has done that.

Do not try to be a dictator in everything.

Japan, Russia, England, Italy, Turkish, Iran, China....every single one of them had dictatorship.


100 years ago a group of Xabeshi went to the king and advised him to copy the Japanese system, instead of the European he was trying to copy. He refused. BTW some how the Japanese and Xabeshi had contacts and even small trade, believe it or not.
Even the Xabeshi priests condemned some of the technology that was coming. The devils work...

There is conditions for a dictator that can develop a society:

1. He cannot be corrupt. Dictator and corrupt never go together. If he is corrupt, he is not a dictator, just a bandit and never a corrupt dictator succeeded in history. If somebody corrupts you, it means they black mail you, they know your weakness. To be a good dictator, you cannot show weakness.

2. He should only be fanatic in development, never in any other field, culture, finance even faith.
Ataturk is best example of this. People even in Turkey cannot confidently tell you if he was Muslim, Jewish or even Christian. They cannot confidently tell you if he was Persian, Turkish, Ashkenazi, Balkan, Mesopotamian/Assyrian/Kurd..

[galbeedi]

Kemal Ataturk was  loyal and brave Ottoman. The Ottomans  had many different ethnic groups living under the empire. His family were Muslims who lived in Thessaloniki, present day Greece. 

His later actions proved that he was an atheist who didn't believe in Islam, and decided to get rid of Islamic culture in Turkey.

Yet, Ataturk was certainly the real father of Turkey and without him the present day Anatolia could not have been possible. The Ottoman Caliphate under the king was willing to disband the whole country and to be divided by Russia, France, Italy, Greece and other. The nationalist movement led by him defeated millions of Greek soldiers and others in the great battle of independence.

Unlike Arab dictators and feudal monarchs , Ataturk fought, bled and almost died for both the Ottoman empire and Turkey. He was instrumental in the battle of Gallipoli in 1915 where half million British, French and Australians tried to help Russia in the first world war and cut through the narrow Dardanelles and cut through Marmara sea. 

It was one of the toughest battles that showed both the bravery of the British and Turkish soldiers. Ataturk was wounded in that war. He also fought in LIbya when the Italians invaded and he commanded 6,000 guerrilla forces against 100,000 Italians. 

It doesn't matter if he was Jewish or Kurd, but he was and still is the hero and father of the Turkish nation. 

Other than probably Naser , None of the Arab regimes of the gulf or surrounding regions had produced one single leader who cared about his nation and people.

Having said that development and building things are not a secret that only few nations know. THere are many successful models to be copied. 

In the developed western nations, development and nation building had ceased long ago. Here in Canada , we can not even build a simple pipeline to transport oil. The native Indians had to bribed , and the useless environment kids are making noises without knowing the cost to the nation. 

The cost of doing business and building things are huge. The western model is not even remotely possible in the developing countries.Somalis might learn to work if they get paid reasonable wages. Other than few Hawala business it hard to find people getting paid on time for their labour. Somali employers both government and private business do not pay their people for months, it is part of the culture. It is one of the major reasons pushing people to leave the country. THere is almost no difference between those who have jobs and the unemployed.

 

 

 

 

 

[Dhaqaale]

18 hours ago, Haatu said:

The cultural argument against development has been thoroughly debunked. All agricultural societies possess backward traits before they industrialize. It is the industrialisation process that makes them more efficient, punctual etc. The British in the late 19th century considered the Germans lazy, inefficient and stated they would never amount to much. Today, German efficiency and engineering prowess is well known. Read Ha Joon Chang's fantastic book, Bad Samaritans. In particular read the chapter he talks about cultural traits and how they supposedly influence industrialisation.

All nations go through civil wars. The Chinese Warring States civil war lasted over 300 years. Non-stop warfare, states declaring independence, you name it, they had it. It makes our 30 year civil war seem like a trifle.

Here is the thing, Somalis are not agricultural by nature and never developed along the lines of a traditional society. What do I mean by traditional? Well take any major power today, Europeans, Russia, Japan, China, Korea, Perisa, India..ect you have a people who started out as nomadic and then settle down near a river and over time built farms which increase the population settlement and then you have your first city. This first step is very important and cannot be ignored.

What comes with a city settlement? Well, you get specialisation. What is specialisation? It is simply a process were society allocates different technical abilities to various people within a class order. Good at making swords? you become the forging class. Good at making fabrics? you become the merchant class. Good at farming? Good at fighting? Good at building monuments? Good at writing? you get the picture. Each specialist is allocated a position in society and those specialist form schools that teach the next generation. Now comes the governing part. Who should rule this kingdom, as more cities are built, who can govern this place? Well the priest class convince society that a monarch should rule as divine right from god. The people accept this because they are use to functioning in a system bigger than themselves, so for the time being nobody questions this. So you have the beginning of a civilisation with a strong foundation which will produce a civil society that i am talking about.

Somalis have always been wonders in a vast land populated by dry riverbeds and arid conditions. Their culture is nomadic and focused around life of a nomad not a civilisation with a written language. This is also a very important point that cannot be hidden from view. The Jubba and Shebelle have no monuments nor stone cities near them, the only source of constant water within Somali lands. They don't even have well developed agricultural farms going back 1,000 years (remember agriculture was developed in 10,000 BC). Why? Because as I have stated before Somalis did not have core development values as other societies that have rivers running through them. This is the root of Somalia's problems, they are not a settled society and cannot function without their nomadic traits. You cannot simply undo what Somalis have known for thousands of years. The transformation will happen but not within my lifetime.

[Haatu]

On 3/7/2020 at 3:13 AM, galbeedi said:

 

Haatu,

Don't pay attention to OOdweyne, he can not see beyond the Al-shabaab or his paranoia of one day losing and holding empty bag. As they say revolutions eat their own children , and I have no doubt he will be a victim.

 many  nations are using all kind of methods and strategies to create wealth and prosperity. I was always wondered how the Chinese were able to invest billions if not trillions of Yuan for the world class infrastructure they have built. Chinese cities , highways, electric grid and transportation systems are more advanced than the most developed nations of the west. As you said if they get back some money from the investment and write off the rest of the loans, that is a very clever way of doing things. Selling government bonds to finance projects or use for development is something many nations use today. Even cash strapped Greece sells government bonds

 

Printing money , especially more than the economy can handle usually creates inflation. As you said printing by itself is peanuts. The world had changed both its approach of development, industrialization and infrastructure building. What took 30  or 40 years or more to develop and create modern infrastructure and towns  in Europe , is taking less than a decade in China, Malaysia and even ERdogan's Turkey.

THe old economic solutions of seventies or eighties are out of the window. That is why you need a new idea or people who think out of the box. Building the nation through donor funds whether it is the army or infrastructure is recipe for failure. While C/raxman Bayle and others are doing just fine, they are old dogs trained to sit and stand by their owners (Old economic systems).

While I do not know much about currency and banks,  I have some inside knowledge about two major points you raised.

And 

The Hawala thing might not be there for another decade. The new generation of Somalis who grew up in the west will not be sending any money back home. THey don't understand the concept of sending money every moths to relatives. So, it is important to implement this development tax quickly. The 5% tax will be deducted from the recipient and the Hwala companies will transfer the money directly to the national treasury. It is not their money, they are just collecting the taxes through their transaction point. 2 billion dollars of Hawala will fetch $ 100 million dollars a year. 

 

Export promotion is what built many nations especially the Asian tigers. Even Ethiopia of Males Zenawi started the whole economy on two things. Infrastructure building and export oriented economy. Early last year when I went to Addis , I have met some business people who export coffee beans and animal skin ( Hargaha). THey told me that almost all exported goods are guaranteed by export bank created by the government. 

Every year milliuons of dollars are lost from Somali livestock traders by unscrupulous dealers from the gulf. AS we speak a thousands of livestock from Somaliland are refused and shipped back. An export bank will make the connections and pay the local traders as soon as these livestocks leave the dock. Our sheep, goats and cows might be even more expensive than the barrel of oil. THe average sheep is $80 dollars and the cow 200. If we send 10 million of these, we could earn close to a billion of hard currency.

20 years ago, as a taxi cab driver , I picked a guy from the airport who flew from Shenzhen, China. This was when China was accelerating its manufacturing capacity around the world. The guy told me that the Chinese were putting a coal fired plant for electricity,, huge industrial warehouse, hotels and telephone for the international traders. Everyone went to China and set up shop. The Chinese garment industry alone is $170 billion a year.

 

Certainly we can not do things the old way. WE need to modernize and build things within a decade. Yet, if our leaders keep listening the foreign aid group and their advice , we won't go far.  Ethiopia abandoned IMF and World bank in 2004 and started building its  huge infrastructure through CHina and others. 

The Chinese simply realised what all bankers know: that money enters the system whenever a loan is taken out. It then becomes a choice as to whether that bank is private and the profits therefore remain private, or whether that bank is public so the benefits accrued benefit the society at large. The neo-liberal West chose the private route and their economies are suffering as a result, whereas the Chinese chose the public route and their people are better off for it. As an illustration, the UK is still debating whether to build its first high speed rail and the budget is already in the billions of £s. In that time, the Chinese have managed to build the worlds most extensive high speed rail network.

As for the time it takes to develop, you are right it is increasing. It took England roughly 150 years, Japan 70 years, Taiwan and S Korea 40 years, and China just under 30 years, and Turkey will probably beat that record. As you can see, with modern technology and as the world market grows, the pace of development is increasing, but only with the right policies. 

Ethiopia started upon this path with Zenawi who was well read in the East Asian Economic Miracle and the results he achieved in a short space of time with hardly any money were astounding. That should be proof to all that these policies work even in a desperately poor and underdeveloped country. However, unfortunately for them Zenawi died and those that came after him were clueless.

[Haatu]

On 3/7/2020 at 10:34 AM, Old_Observer said:

Haatu,

You need a dictatorship of some kind. Not dictatorship on everything, but dictatorship of something.

Example: If what comes is political dictatorship, then don't bother the people who are apolitical. Traders, farmers, factory workers...just support them never bother to make the farmers league in a village political. They do not need to sing your praises.

If the dictatorship is cultural, for example, if you want to change the nomad to work in a factory 12 hours a day straight, be a dictator that way, but do not bother him once he has done that.

Do not try to be a dictator in everything.

Japan, Russia, England, Italy, Turkish, Iran, China....every single one of them had dictatorship.


100 years ago a group of Xabeshi went to the king and advised him to copy the Japanese system, instead of the European he was trying to copy. He refused. BTW some how the Japanese and Xabeshi had contacts and even small trade, believe it or not.
Even the Xabeshi priests condemned some of the technology that was coming. The devils work...

There is conditions for a dictator that can develop a society:

1. He cannot be corrupt. Dictator and corrupt never go together. If he is corrupt, he is not a dictator, just a bandit and never a corrupt dictator succeeded in history. If somebody corrupts you, it means they black mail you, they know your weakness. To be a good dictator, you cannot show weakness.

2. He should only be fanatic in development, never in any other field, culture, finance even faith.
Ataturk is best example of this. People even in Turkey cannot confidently tell you if he was Muslim, Jewish or even Christian. They cannot confidently tell you if he was Persian, Turkish, Ashkenazi, Balkan, Mesopotamian/Assyrian/Kurd..

Robert Wade, an economics professor at the London School of Economics and the world expert in Taiwan's economic development concluded at the end of his book on the subject that the most efficient system for economic development is an authoritarian system. Why? Because as shown by China, authoritarian systems have the power to invest limited national resources into sectors deemed necessary for national development, not where private interests can make the most profit. However, the caveat is that it must be a developmental authoritarianism in the guise of Park Chung Hee's Korea or Communist China, not an African banana republic authoritarianism.

[Haatu]

On 3/7/2020 at 5:34 PM, Dhaqaale said:

Here is the thing, Somalis are not agricultural by nature and never developed along the lines of a traditional society. What do I mean by traditional? Well take any major power today, Europeans, Russia, Japan, China, Korea, Perisa, India..ect you have a people who started out as nomadic and then settle down near a river and over time built farms which increase the population settlement and then you have your first city. This first step is very important and cannot be ignored.

What comes with a city settlement? Well, you get specialisation. What is specialisation? It is simply a process were society allocates different technical abilities to various people within a class order. Good at making swords? you become the forging class. Good at making fabrics? you become the merchant class. Good at farming? Good at fighting? Good at building monuments? Good at writing? you get the picture. Each specialist is allocated a position in society and those specialist form schools that teach the next generation. Now comes the governing part. Who should rule this kingdom, as more cities are built, who can govern this place? Well the priest class convince society that a monarch should rule as divine right from god. The people accept this because they are use to functioning in a system bigger than themselves, so for the time being nobody questions this. So you have the beginning of a civilisation with a strong foundation which will produce a civil society that i am talking about.

Somalis have always been wonders in a vast land populated by dry riverbeds and arid conditions. Their culture is nomadic and focused around life of a nomad not a civilisation with a written language. This is also a very important point that cannot be hidden from view. The Jubba and Shebelle have no monuments nor stone cities near them, the only source of constant water within Somali lands. They don't even have well developed agricultural farms going back 1,000 years (remember agriculture was developed in 10,000 BC). Why? Because as I have stated before Somalis did not have core development values as other societies that have rivers running through them. This is the root of Somalia's problems, they are not a settled society and cannot function without their nomadic traits. You cannot simply undo what Somalis have known for thousands of years. The transformation will happen but not within my lifetime.

The cultural arguments against development have already been debunked. You can read the literature on the subject.

As for this narrative that Somalis are inherently lazy and will not work for a wage, that is patently false for all to see. The are countless people that work very hard back home for pennies and countless more desperate for jobs. I listened to a podcast the other day where the guest spoke about the dangers of having others (scientists, historians, anthropologists) narrate the Somali story. And one of the things he mentioned was the negative stereotype of the Somali pushed, especially since the civil war. All you here is the Somalis are incapable of compromise, of living under authority, inherently unruly, lazy etc. It is so ubiquitous that even many Somalis believe this to be the case. Why? Because we went through a 30 year civil war. Many nations on Earth went through worse but nobody says that about them. The answer, we need to be the narrators of our own story.