Dubai’s DP World to upgrade, maintain Eritrean ports

[Suldaanka]

Dubai's DP World to upgrade, maintain Eritrean ports - Gulf Business

GULFBUSINESS.COM

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Formerly isolated Eritrea is normalising foreign relations after signing a peace deal in July 2018 with neighbouring Ethiopia

 

[Old_Observer]

UAE has been in Eritrea for more than 2 years now.

Asab is their base for the war in Yemen.

They will not invest much unless they want to abandon Berbera or to be used for Somalia and limited volume for Ethiopia., since almost all Ethiopian business prefer 1. Djibouti 2. Berbera 3. Bassaso (but now there is already a concertium raising money to build another port in Puntland closer to Somaliland so as to use same roads for most part)

 

Djibouti is guaranteed for minimum of 65% for decades. If Berbera takes 20% according to plan when the deal was signed. Eritrea can only compete for 15% out of which Sudan will have definitely a share, Kenya Puntland and rest of Somalia. Kismayu was high on the prospectus at one time around 2006.

 

Whatch out Berbera. This is africa. Dictators and Arabs are best for snap decisions.

 

[Old_Observer]

Oodweyne,

You have raised questions that are the basis for any decion maker, thus beyond me, but let me give it a go from what is known instead of attempting projections and assumptions which I will definitely fail.

1. For America anyone is an alternative to Djibouti. Eritrea, Sudan, Somaliland..etc the difference is only a degree. America can move to Yemen as well and if they choose that will be solving Yemen in less than 6 months. But regardless, America will not leave Djibouti for Chinese and even French and others.

2. If UAE plan is to use Berbera and Assab to kill Djibouti, then they are getting into uncharted territory. Eritrea does not want Assab more than Massawa. 90% of their population is near Massawa and half of Ethiopia even part of Sudan and South Sudan can use Massawa far more economically than Assab. For UAE Massawa will need atleast 15 Billion to make it port for 21st century level. Assab may need half of it.
Fundamentally Berbera and Assab have the same problem. Political status and questions of uncertainty.In Eritrea its one old man and Somaliland all neighbors do not want it to be independent. For Somalia Puntland will follow. For Ethiopia Kililka will follow and for Djibouti its simply life threatening among brothers.
Instability in Ethiopia is also very critical. Ethiopia has made 4 revolutions/drastic change in one century. The next one is around the corner. One draught season, one Ethnic conflict..away.

3. Abiy would have wanted to kill Djibouti, but will be pipe dream. He can only move Ethiopian business from Djibouti to Berbera. Businessmen would rather pay more in Djibouti rather than cheaper Assab. Never forget that Ethiopia has used Djibouti through 4 revolutions, through 2 world wars without a single failure. Imagine that in Africa. That is unique. Ethiopia used Djibouti even when it had Eritrea for 40 years. Some kind of connection there.

4. China has invested a lot on Djibouti Ethiopia "silk" road most of it is Ethiopian debt, since Ethiopia has to guarantee business for certain time for all that development to go on. The west has no money to invest, Arabs have no techology to give. China has both if they recover from this Coronavirus attack fairly OK.

5. Iran US war seems to be ON. America is increasing its force, Israel and Turkey are weakening Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. Egypt is trying to survive and suez is key. That can change everything in a heart bit, consequences of which I can't even understand let alone to guess what would happen to HoA and Yemen.

Somaliland is on correct path.
1. 20% of Ethiopian business is more than enough for a decade. Just make that happen and do not throw away a guaranteed income looking for possibilities fraught with danger. Djibouti would be elated if Somaliland takes everything rather than Eritrea. That you can take to the bank. There may be some unhappy Somali businessmen, but this interest for Djibouti is cast in stone. This was determined and is well accepted from the Days of Meles. IOG never hesitated on this, whether in love or hate mode with Somaliland.


Somaliland nneds to convert Farmaajo or who ever comes to the likes of Ahmed Shiek and Abdulahi Yusuf. Both understood and strictly followed the priciple of live and let live. Ghelleh had good influence on both. No war in that part of the Horn. Somaliland has to make sure there is no war around it. War is an easy way for foreigners to influence and also war is unpredictable.

Abiy will not be successful to achieve the control that the likes of Meles had. If every Somali is to accept and speak truth, Somaliland is the only one that never gets to close to any dictator or "democracy" around. Both Djibouti and Ethiopian officials can testify to this. Even Illey found this out very early. Now you can see how Somaliland dealt better with British than others and why Puntland went to war with Italy. Both achieved the same result..an autonomous way of life, but both achieved it by different means and methods.

Abiy maybe trying to get Somaliland and Eritrea together, but you and I know that is impossible. Afwerki would never ever accept Somaliland. Somaliland formally recognized or not, will never be enemy with Djibouti in your or my life time.

Faarmajo has not much to offer to anybody. He spoiled the little thing he had and used it against Djibouti. He will pay a price for that and he is not going to know it or see it coming.

Afwerki has very little to offer to anybody as well. No economy. He can offer some soldiers as its very cheap and easy to do in Africa.

Never forget that:
Eritrea is in the red sea only and not in the two critical gates directly. Somaliland is on the red sea and gulf to Indian ocean both open. If suez or Bab el Mendeb closed Eritrea is useless, Somaliland is not. That is very crucial.

The reason the Tigray chose Djibouti/Somaliland/Puntland is that 1. They have forever enmity with Egypt 2. Since their economic future was to the east, better have something that Arabs cannot fully control and is open to east.