The foreign policy failure of Farmaajo made Abiy Ahmed the overlord of Somalia.

[galbeedi]

The emperor has no clothes.

For the last three years Somalia had no well defined foreign policy on Ethiopia or the the greater Horn of Africa region. 

Everything was based on personality and the diplomatic charm of Ethiopia's prime minister Abiy Ahmed and the desperation of Farmaajo to get help from Ethiopia. Farmaajo has forgot that Ethiopia at the moment is going through some of the most difficult times in the modern history of Ethiopia. The chains of oppression was broken by the Oromo uprising and more than a dozen ethnic groups are vying for self determination and self rule. Everyone understands that the Amhara centric policies of the last centuries will never be rehabilitated again while the TPLF who ruled Ethiopia for the last 27 years  set the stage for ethnic nationalities to be their own bosses after their departure.

 

The largest Oromo block consisting of the Eritrea based OLF movement, the Queero of Jawar Mohamed and the Oromo Federalist Congress are all combined their forces to stop any moves by Abiy and the Amhara  backers to revive the old centralized Ethiopia of yester years. With Tigray region withdrawing from the Addis administration, Oromo nationalist seeking full autonomy and other long oppressed ethnics like Sidamo,  Qimnat and others seeking self rule , Ethiopia at the moment , can not project  power outside its own borders.

 

If Ethiopia is week to project power inside its own borders , what makes Farmaajo give the whole shop to Ethiopia and became the puppet of Abiy Ahmed?

There are two main reasons for the failure of Farmaajo to understand the situation. 

Lack of foreign policy and expertise,  and to achieve military and political goals through Ethiopia.

 

At the moment, there are no defined foreign policy of Somalia regarding Ethiopia.  In fact, there are no long term or short term policies of the Farmaajo administration. As a simple minded people , Somali leaders usually  put their whole policy in one basket by demanding to bring the attention of the Ethiopian leadership from the regions to themselves. Like a jealous teenage girl seeking the undivided attention of her boy, they focus their sight on  one single issue in their foreign policy. Rather that demand  to stop the internal interference and prepare for the withdrawal of their forces and control the flow of weapons from the border, Farmaajo asked one simple issue:  cut  contacts to regional governments of Somalia.

 

Some even believe the whole issue was nothing but to sideline Puntland politically. Since Jubbaland is anchored in Nairobi and Hargeisa leaders are keeping both economical , trade and other security contacts with Ethiopia, the whole policy was mainly based to sideline Puntland. Yet, in return, Farmaajo get nothing but more Ethiopian forces within Somalia. In fact, Abiy Ahmed had achieved more or less what the TPLF has done in very subtle and mischievous way. Their might have been general Gabre in villa Somalia, but today, we have a Somali Gabre as ambassador and the Ethiopian army is everywhere from Bay to Galmudug, and from GEdo to Hiiraan.

 

Abiy has totally squared off Farmaajo politically. Today Abiy understand that Farmaajo could not move politically without his help. If Abiy wants to undermine Farmaajo, he can achieve with little or no efforts and can withdraw his military support and those puppet states could either collapse from Al-shabaab attack or other adversaries. 

 

THe best example is the current fiasco of claiming  to visit Hargeisa. Like a child who born last night , he never understood the game the SNM Habro were playing for twenty some years. While victimhood was a scheme  to get resources from donors and gain sympathy from certain segments of the Somali society , what the SNM fears most is  the debunking of the enmity they created among the Somaliland people toward Somalis, especially later generations. For years those who show Somali flag or any affinity with Somalia were arrested, so does anyone who claims victimhood or talks about the crimes of SNM, and anyone who talks about reconciliation. A visit by Somali president might  crush the big mountain built on lies which might allow the next generation of Somalilanders to seek brotherhoods with other Somalis. The Somali president never understood that simple equation.

 

To continue the issue of the lack of foreign policy, let us see how Abiy is celebrating his victory against Farmaajo in the world stage.

 

Reliable sources in Addis and Hargeisa told us that the so called visit of Farmaajo to Hargeisa was initiated by Abiy with the coordination of the UAE. For seven years, Ahmed Siilaanyo who tried to kept his reserved approach to Ethiopian leaders never received red carpet or Somaliland flags behind his chair if I remember correctly. The visit by Muuse Biixi , and the carbet under the airplane was televised for UAE and anyone else to see. Abiy is not stupid or someone is void of the historical issues between Somalia and Ethiopia. He  doesn't want any union within Somalis at the moment while Ethiopia is going through unforseen water, yet this shrewd politician told both Farmaajo and Muuse to come together quickly and start the process. He mentioned Eritrea which is different country by saying , " all that  happened not only during the liberation war in the eighties, but the last war from the Ethiopian offensive where over hundred thousand died  were forgiven, what stops Somalis who are the same people to achieve unity"? He offered to visit Hargeisa with Farmaajo.

 

 The usual skeptic Muuse Biixi did not refuse the offer while Abiy , their Boss , was present,  but said will see.  In return without giving anything back, Muuse played his card correctly and asked the naive guy from Ansalooti to do few things before the relationship goes further. You can not talk to a girl for the first meeting and demand a wedding. I wouldn't say who is the girl in this relationship. Anyway, Muuse said first, issue an apology to the crimes your uncle did in Hargeisa, second dismiss those useless commission of unity you appointed earlier this years. Third, do not interfere with the UAE project in Berbera, and finally do not tamper with the foreign aid directed to Somaliland.  The fool, Farmaajo started the first step with an apology and then asked Abiy to accompany him to come to Hargeisa. 

If some of you were entertained by the news of Farmaajo going to Hargeisa, I have a newsflash for you. It will not going to happen. Take that to the bank.

Yet, if Farmaajo goes to Hargeisa while riding along Abiy it will not be the first time. When Kenya expelled the Somali ambassador from Nairobi, Farmaajo went to Addis Ababa and Abiy took  him as a child to Nairobi to confront  Uhuru Kenyata. The Somali parliament was shocked the way he was babysitted. Personally I do not mind if Farmaajo going to Hargeisa with Cumar Geele or others , but to be babysitted by an Ethiopian leader is a shame.  

Farmaajo repeated his only line about the north which is " I will vacate the seat of power if unity is achieved"( Kursigaan kaaga Kici). While that offer tempted the man who lives the house Morgan used to live in Hargeisa, Biixi can not take that offer with all the hyenas waiting him in Hargeisa including our own OOdweyne and company. In fact, it is a stupid line most southern leaders repeat when they meet Somaliland presidents. Even Hassan Sheikh repeated that line while in Djibouti with Ahmed Siilaanyo and Cumar Geelle. 

 

Yet, Abiy flew immediately to the UAE and offered the good news to the men who deposited a billion dollar hard currency to the Ethiopian central bank to stabilize the dollar exchanges and keep the Ethiopian Birr stable. He gave him the good news that Somalia and Somaliland are in his pocket, and his investment in Berbera and other places will be preserved and guaranteed by him. Who knows soon he might even call DEni and assure that the UAE investment in Boosaaso must be protected.

 

Folks, the naive " Ciyaal Xamar" had made the weak Ethiopian prime minister who is hiding in the Menelik plaza the most powerful overlord of Somalia. He goes to these meetings with no long term policy but to demand Ethiopian soldiers and to sideline Somali regional government which is a very small price compared to what is at stake.

 

The second mistake Farmaajo did is historical.

 

The contemporary  Somali  attitude toward Ethiopia in the last 25 years  was  do not trust Ethiopia as long as Somalia is weak. Traditionally weak and venerable nations always guard against bigger or predatory neighbors who might interfere their internal affairs. It is a well defined policy to minimize their influence and find alternative solutions to guard against their power. 

 

Those of us who believe this moto to the core  and certain analysts also believe that the current Ethiopia of Abiy Ahmed will never allow strong and politically stable Somalia while Ethiopia is in transition. If Abiy's  reforms and the new reconfiguring of Ethiopia system fails,  no one knows what could happen in that country. The Somali region of Ethiopia was always outside the economic and social norms of Ethiopia state due to oppressive rules and marginalization of the ruling class in Addis. If Oromo who have millions other ethnic groups living within their region are threatening to abandon if centralized Ethiopia rears its ugly head, Somalis  would be the best candidate to separate completely. 

 

Also, stable Somalia might dictate  and demand better conditions for Somalis while building bridges with Oromo and other independent minded groups. Abiy understands this more than anyone else. Imagine the Tigray , who are landlocked and located in most northern region of Ethiopia, are chakmated by Abiy for fear of being troublesome , what will  a free and stable Somalia might do?  It quickly connect not only to Somalis but also the Oromo nationalists.  Abiy will never take that chance, never.

 

Those of us who know history  believe that Abiy or anyone else in Ethiopia should not be trusted let alone use the Ethiopian army to settle internal conflicts. We  see Farmaajo using the same old failed policy of Somali federal leaders and rebels to use Ethiopian muscle to achieve political goals a disaster that will linger many years to come.

 

It is very strange that a leader,  who have major issues of unity in Galmudug, disaster in the making in Jubba and can not secure MOgadishu, is adding his full plate on  the issue of Somaliland ( Kud ka guur oo qanjo u guur).  Yet, as most people said, it is all about reelection. Since Farmaajo can not get votes from Jubba, Puntland and Banaadir, he is seeking the help of the separatists. Muuse is also dreaming of the big chair in Somalia since Farmaajo had pointed  a shortcut to him.

 

" Muuse,  hadda I taageer, aniguna haddi la i doorto waxaan isku dayi in aan laba sano ka dib kursiga kugu wareejiyo inta shanta sano kaa dhamaan" 

 

The euforia Somalis had shown for Farmaajo shows how most Somalis are still nationalis who were yearning for freedom and dignity. What did Farmaajo did to receive the the huge support he got from Somalis after his election?. Why everyone said " Take me to Farmaajo" Farmaajo ii Geeya?Because while he was briefly a prime minister in 2011,  he paid the salary of the Somali soldiers and refused the interference of the foreign forces mainly the Ugandan forces.  It was all false image which showed his inability to survive the power struggle of Mogadishu,  and this time around he decided to preserve himself and rely to foreign forces just like those before him. 

 

While the Somali  ambassador to the UN was in this part of Canada , we asked him about when the foreign forces will withdraw from Somalia. He said in 2020 about 1000 soldiers will leave and their salaries will be transferred to the another 1000 Somali soldiers. If that is how to withdraw foreign forces one thousand of them every year, then may Allah help us to be independent.

 

I do believe that the time has come to look for genuine Somali nationalist who can confront these tough issues and work hard to remove foreign forces from the country. We need a proud Somali who doesn't want to be babysitted by neighbors and others. I knew Farmaajo was a shallow who doesn't huge grasp of the major issues, but I thought he would surround capable man. Where is the foreign minister with all this issues? he was sidelined by Khayre long time ago.

If he thinks Abiy will help him re-election like Hassan Sheikh visited Jigjiga on behalf of the TPLF, Farmaajo is doomed to fail.

 

 

[Che -Guevara]

Actually both emperors have no clothes.

[Old_Observer]

galbeedi,

You are well informed about Ethiopia, probably better than most Ethiopian diaspora, since you can observe as uninterested party while they are all emotional wreck.

Few points:
1. Puntland. Puntland's best option is to have modus vivendi with Somaliland and close alliance with Ghelleh half secretly.
As long as Afwerki is in the mix Puntland will be kept out. You may remember the personal exchange between Adde Muse and Afwerki in 2006, where they exchanged " niceties about the Italo Puntland war in the 1900s.Dictators can forget big issues when scared or jubilant, but personal humiliation is never forgiven or forgotten.

2. Kililka. Its is now very weak. The Oromo, Afar, Tigray are solid federalists. You would think that these 3 would be natural allies for a Somali who fought for 100 years for self determination. Yet, Cagjar allies and best friends are Amxara who are against federalism. Imagine that. The man has no red line and has no dignity and respect for his ancestors.

3. Djibouti. When ever you see any Somali leader avoiding, ignoring, hiding or outright insulting Djibouti like Farmaajo did in Asmara, you can be sure there is something to hide. Ghelleh has told Farmaajo to have clear agenda for talks and do the talks in Djibouti which is neutral and as elder can advise both sides. Farmaajo got scared of Abiy and Afwerki.
Actually they are all running fast now before Ghelleh initiates a conference.

4. Farmaajo is now totally and completely under Abiy by his own choice. He slowed and frustrated the Turkish which by now should have had a standing army well trained and equiped. He failed. Too scared of UAE.He was afraid that UAE might bring down his government, which they can anytime since he is not going to fight.

5. Ethiopia has a fall back if Abiy fails. The Military. The Oromo is for federalism and is well inflitrated by Jawar, OFC, OLF..etc and the rest is other nationalities mostly pro federalism. The Army is still safe, since it takes a long time to infiltrate and the Tigray seem to have done a good job of Federalism and self government.

Farmaajo forget him, just make sure he does not start regional conflicts.
Puntland and Somaliland nothing meaningful will happen. UAE will only push if all Somalia will be under full control of Somaliland with full support of Puntland.

Jubaland is now totally screwed. Even those of SFG are now angry at the role of Ethiopia. Ethiopia will never take any steps against Moodabe. You can take that to the bank. Cagjar will be hanged from tallest tree to start with.

The Abiy and his Amxara are either stupid or ignorant. Any force the Tigray sent to Somalia was always with a big number of Somalis from Kililka. The Tigray know the behaviour of the Nomad. Abiy sent some more than half Oromo army, not knowing that the history between Oromo and Kililka. I am sure Farmaajo is also ignorant of this little, but very important secret.

[Suldaanka]

This is hardly a foreign policy. It is actually a policy of bending-over in the hope of getting favours in return. It reminds me of the classic Indian in the work place, where they lick shoes on their way up the ladder. 

Cheeseman's calculations is that, if he is able to bendover and please the Ethiopians which ever way they like it, then that will sway them from dealing directly with the regional leaders. In short, when Ethiopians can get everything they ever wanted in the blink of an eye, why ever look any other way or go any other route?

It is a very open and tempting preposition and an offer too good to refuse. Which is why Abiye Ahmed is heads of heels. Never had anyone gotten a free raid like the one Abiye is enjoying now. 

Somalia is now reeling from the spillover of 'memorandum of understanding' with regards to the maritime demarcations with Kenya. Can you imagine how many signatures and memo's that Cheeseman has put his signature to? Only time will tell. 

 

[Suldaanka]

3 hours ago, Old_Observer said:

1. Puntland. Puntland's best option is to have modus vivendi with Somaliland and close alliance with Ghelleh half secretly.
As long as Afwerki is in the mix Puntland will be kept out. You may remember the personal exchange between Adde Muse and Afwerki in 2006, where they exchanged " niceties about the Italo Puntland war in the 1900s.Dictators can forget big issues when scared or jubilant, but personal humiliation is never forgiven or forgotten.

Puntland is on a declining trajectory. If Cheeseman is not the man to finish it off, it will be any other that follows him but with a centralist ideology. 

'Clan Federalism' is not sustainable in the majority of South Somalia, specially regions from Mudug all the way to Shabeeleha Hoose are pro-centralist. And this is where the power and future of Somalia will be dictated from. 

With regards to Jubaland, it is really how much Kenya is prepared to risk. If Kenya is hungary enough to keeping its possessions, then Jubaland will be around after Cheeseman. But if Kenya is not willing to plunge itself into the quagmire like Ethiopia has done multiple times, then Jubaland and specially Ahmed Madoobe is history. 

The beggars from Baydhabo have no choice really. Whoever sits in Mogadishu, they will get in line with his policies. 

[galbeedi]

4 hours ago, Suldaanka said:

With regards to Jubaland, it is really how much Kenya is prepared to risk. If Kenya is hungary enough to keeping its possessions, then Jubaland will be around after Cheeseman. But if Kenya is not willing to plunge itself into the quagmire like Ethiopia has done multiple times, then Jubaland and specially Ahmed Madoobe is history.

Good analysis . I agree.

[Old_Observer]

galbeedi,

If Farmaajo with Abiy/Afwerki sponsorship does not start war with any region, for the re-election, that would be a big accomplishment. If he starts one then he will take Somalia a decade back and this time no SFG can be put together, since some regions will simply give up. 30 years is more than a generation.

I would say, don't give up on him completely. He may leave peacefully. He is using Qatar money to do UAE work. That is very complicated since Arabs are not forgiving.

He failed the Turkish plans fantastically. Worst than being anti-Turkish. Too scared of UAE.

He cannot even say verbally against anything remotely anti-UAE while being sponsored by Abiy/Afwerki.

How could anyone expect Farmaajo to do anything that disappoints UAE or Saudi? Impossible.

 

[Old_Observer]

9 hours ago, Oodweyne said:

Old_Observer,

That really good analysis, particularly the notion of taking Qatar's money and doing it what Abby/Afwerki wants in Somalia, which in turn means what UAE wants, since these two chaps are in the pocket or being sponsored by none other than the same UAE, in which allegedly, Mr Farmaajo was supposedly be hostile to.

As you say it's all complicated at best. Or at worse of it, then someone has been taking for a ride. And and I suspect, when Qatar fully realized how UAE was using Mr Farmaajo, who is a man they thought that they had "purchased" his loyalty already, and he is being in an open back-channel arrangement with UAE (their nemesis in the region), and he is being acting in that way because of the Ethiopia and Eritrea, then, Qatar will, of course, be in an forgiven mood towards him, to say the least.  

Farmaajo simply chickened out. Too scared. I don't blame him. Being in Mugadishu guarded by Uganda and helpless even against simple warlord can do that to you. Especially when the warlords go for weekends to Dubai and he has to go to Qatar.

If he had a little spine, he would have been going every week to Ankara instead of Asmara.

 

Qatar and Turkish know this already. Ask yourself a simple question. Ethiopia is now even at this shakey times a multiple more powerful than Somalia and a multiple more influential. Yet Ethiopia could not handle and could not manage to continue realtions with its second investor after China, that is Turkey.

How could Farmaajo "play" Turkey/Qatar vs. UAE/Saudi/Egypt

 

Even Sudan could not manage being very close to Turkey and dependent on Saudis. Even sending soldiers to Yemen did not save Bashir. His visit to Damascus was the last straw. The new ruler now already met Netanyahu and Sudan might establish relations with Israel to achieve what Arabs could not. Get off list of terror sponsoring countries.

 

I was amused when most Somali expected Farmaajo to start war against UAE during the signing of the Berbera deal. Some SOLers were emotional wreck over it. Farmaajo just got rid of it very quickly. The security council at UN or IGAD, or AU or Arab League have all been forgotten now. We Horn people are that simpltons no red line no principle just raw emotions.

 

The most disappointing part is when we have lessons for free from other Somalis. How do Djibouti, Somaliland, Puntland and Kililka survived without going to war for almost a generation?

How come ONLF now made peace and friendship with Djibouti, Somaliland and Puntland after all the recriminations of the 2000s?

These should have been free education.

 

How could Somaliland maintained for 20 years simply business relations with both Meles and Ghelleh even thought Somaliland knew from the get go that these two men would be the last 2 leaders on earth that will give formal recognition to Somaliland?