Is this a real push for Somali unity from the international community or the usual maneuvers to share the pie.

[galbeedi]

 

As usual I have to talk from time to time  a friend of mine  in Halane compound to gage the the future plans of the international community (Beesha Lixaad) especially on issues of security, finance and Somali unity. Furthermore, I asked him about debt forgiving schemes from the world community and the constant travels of these groups to Hargeisa lately.

The so called international community is bearing heavy pressure to Biixi and company as of lately. Is this a real push to resolve the issue or the usual maneuvers to bring everyone on board for the money?

 

Here are shortened excerpts of our conversation.

 

Galbeedi:  What is going on in Hargeisa? It seems the so called international community keep traveling to Somaliland to resolve the artificial quagmire created by Muuse Biixi to keep delaying election.

 

Halane Man: Muuse Biixi want to change the well established rules the international community had set up in terms of development and other democracy enhancing programs by trying to have the last word of how things should be managed. These elections and methods of financing were always agreed upon by both the stakeholders including the opposition and the government, yet Muuse keep breaking his promises.

 

Galbeedi: Isn't that a good thing. I mean,  rather than allowing the international community to dictate things, Muuse is saying, " I am the leader and I alone will have the final say".

 

Halane Man: The international community spend millions of dollars of development money from education, health care, water, agriculture, workforce training and micro financing that is the backbone of the government activity in Somaliland. Besides, in Somaliland , No election will take place without their contributions. of donors.  Muuse knows this , but he tries to circle the wagon and frustrate the opposition while he keep breaking the promises he made to the international community.

 

Galbeedi: I heard the last major meeting between Muuse Biixi and the international community had touched some tough issues like the disbanding of the national election commision and Somali unity.

 

Halane Man: The disbanding was the suggestion of Somaliland civil society and both the parliament and Muuse were asked to disband. They suggested to either recall the old commision  in order to save time or create a new a credible NEC agreed upon by everyone.

 

On the Somali unity issue Muuse was told that the time has come to move the negotiations to higher level and prepare the people for unity.

 

Galbeedi: Is there any new developments or the same old tired games of pushing them to talk? Why is this rush for unity now?

 

Halane Man; That delegation was comprised from the EU, USA, UK, World Bank and other donors. THe main points were that Somalia must and should pass the relief and recovery stage of the last twenty years  to the investment and resource extraction stage to prosper and move ahead.  In order to pass that stage of direct foreign investment and resource extraction, the world will only deal with one   national government and in order to achieve that both Puntland and Somaliland must keep what they have achieved throughout the years , but should move to that goal of single authority of national government to secure and save guard foreign investment.

 

Galbeedi: So, in other words , these guys want to get the resources and they want a unified government Somali state to enter these contracts?

 

Halane Man: Resource extraction is already taking place within the country especially in Somaliland. The UAE owned DP World had secured 70 mile square of the Berbera port and airport area. No one could trass pass these zones  and huge containers with thousand of tons of rocks are loaded for shipments with no one's knowledge. THere are Chinese contractors working with government  and well connected oligarchs to extract minerals in Awdal and other places.

 

I know you are skeptic about the international community, but the world had spend billions to help recover Somalia. Now with the debt relief process concluding Somalia is eligible to get direct grants,  loans and investment from the world. Furthermore, the world want to extract these resources to alleviate poverty and help the government to finance its security needs. With all these competing  regional authorities , autonomous regions like Puntland and separatist leadership in Somaliland, it will be difficult to attract investment and credible resource extraction contracts. 

 

Galbeedi: I know what you mean , but is it possible to negotiate now? Also, while Biixi is welcoming these talks, his cabinet issues directives banning anyone from his government involving any donor programs that doesn't come in the name of Somaliland. Is he  sending different signals?

 

Halane Man: I heard that every time he meets these delegations he shows positive attitude for negotiations on the unity file. Some even suggested that he could be ready in his time of choosing. 

You have to know one thing. All these Somali entities from Jubba to Hargeisa could not exist one single day if donors and NGO's cut their programs. After debt issue is settled in this spring, Somalia will print banknotes to the tune of $1.2 billion worth of Somali Shillings, the federal  government is eligible up $750 million loans and grants. Rather than beg, the state treasury will be able to pay the salaries of soldiers and public employees. 

 

Furthermore , It wasn't the Somali leaders or the people who demanded Somalia to leave the transitional period to full federal government in 2012. It was the multinational western companies whose resource related contracts  would be expiring in 2012.

 

Galbeedi: How is this contract is structured? In fact, the head of  Mogadishu university Dr. Mohamed Jimcaale , who is from this side of Alberta made that  same statement.

Halane Man: In late nineteen eighties  major western companies had entered contract with the Somali state while the rebels were fighting to overthrow the government. In most major contracts in these unstable countries , companies add a clause in the agreement which they call " Force majeure" or unforeseen events that might engulf the state. That designation could only last twenty years and after that period the contract will be null and void. So, in order to avoid losing everything they have speeded up the process. 

Furthermore, the American ambassador , Mr. Yamamoto , had publicly told us in a meeting of American aid related employees that he came out of retirement and want to leave a legacy of transforming the whole horn of Africa before he retires again. 

 

Galbeedi: well, if these is this push and pressure from those paying us to  to be a government , how folks like Biixi would deal this?. 

Halane Man: I know Biixi and Kulmiye kept talking about Wadani party having connections with Somali government, but unlike others Biixi will be arm wrestled to make a credible move. Privately , he , Biixi and Adna Aadan tell the international community that they are willing to move ahead with the union but on one condition:  the Somali leaders in Mogadishu should be elected by the people directly first.

 

Galbeedi: is this the  idea of Farmaajo pushing one man, one vote related to the union idea?

Halane Man: I have no idea about that , but all I can tell you is that what Somali leaders say privately to the world and what they tell the public is totally different. The world want after these elections the process to start quickly.

Galbeedi: I don't see Muuse Biixi having experienced people around him. Besides how is he going to frame the issue after all these years?

 

Halane Man: Rayaale refused to deal with Somalia before Ahmed Siilaanyo came. When Siilaanyo was elected he called elders, Ulema and the business community and told them that they were isolated and put themselves in a box (Qol Baan isku Soo xiddhnay) and the media started the propaganda and everyone was told to jump the bandwagon. Siilaanyo brought hundreds of millions although most of the money were looted. Certainly, he could find a way to change the course, besides, the people are unemployed and broke, some might even looking a way out of the unending " Ictiraaf" quagmire. THe international community knows what is going in the region, and these outstanding issues should be resolved before major and local tribal disintegration starts not only in Somaliland but also in Puntland.

Galbeedi: I understand, but Biixi needs new surrogates to sell the idea or he will be railroaded by Faysal Waraabe and others. Anyway, which countries are pushing for unity and who is for Somaliland to seperate? is there any divide among the Sixth Community (Beesha Lixaad)?

 

Halane Man: Neighboring countries like Kenya might work behind the scene to disintegrate Somalia, but in these forums everyone is on board for unity. Yet, there are  two nations that are either skeptical or even pushing for seperation. Sweden is pushing for Somaliland to separate or keep the status quo while UK is playing games. The rest of the nations , EU, US and Africans want a united Somalia as quickly as possible. Also, most of them want to keep the gains both Puntland and Somaliland made .

 

Galbeedi: How about the so called North East State that was in the media lately?

 

Halane Man: That state was rejected because it is  impossible to realizes. Most of those who were pushing were the Harti community in Sool and Sanaag. No one in Somalia  will accept another Harti state within the federal system including Farmaajo. 

 

Galbeedi: How about if you add some of the Habro community in Sanaag and Togdheer and create a multi clan state? besides, that state would be a loyal state to the Somali project.

Halane Man: I do not know about the future but at the moment , while the world is pushing for unity , Farmaajo can not afford to intervene anything that is undermining the  peace in the region. Even Caare was told to stop his campaign and Muuse Biixi was urged to reach a settlement. 

Galbeedi: So, is this the end of an era in Somaliland?

Halane Man: it might not be this year , but expect huge  shift for the next few years. The UN and the EU can not keep throwing money to Somalia while hundreds of billions of resources are buried within Somalia . As I said, in order for investment and resource extraction to start, investors want want to deal with the a national  government . If Somalia want to borrow billions again and get direct investment, no one will be able to sign these agreements in  Somaliland or other places without stable national government. There is huge mineral resource in Somaliland , and that can only be extracted with a national recognized government. Remember, just like Jubbaland and others , Somaliland had signed the debt relief documents. 

And the offshore oil will be the first place to start resource extraction. In the middle of the Indian Ocean far away from Al-shabaab .

Galbeedi: So, those of us from Somaliland will be responsible for the billions Mogadishu is borrowing, right?

Halane Man: Of course. Both the old debt and the new will be under one roof and Somaliland is part of that nation unless otherwise.

 

Folks, I do not know how these guys, Beesha Lixaad,  could hasten the unity. I do believe though  a lot has to happen before unity is achieved.