Somalia to lose UN sovereignty due to lack of government?

[Dhaqaale]

Can a nation after 30 years without a central government lose its sovereignty of its national borders? I mean there has not been a case like it were a member of the U.N has been missing for more than 30 years. There is talk of Ethiopia annexing Somali territory by 2030 (Because 80 million people need a port). Also Somalis are bitterly divided over political control of the territory. The only thing that is stopping Somalia from returning too 1991 levels of violence is Amisom troops in Mogadishu.

So If the solution cannot come from Somalis themselves is it time for another more permanent solution, balkanisation (former Yugoslavia style), conquest, or dissolving Somalia from the U.N altogether?

This stalemate is embarrassing. Is Somali culture finished? did it never start? What are thoughts.

[Dhaqaale]

Except I don't think it will exclude Somaliland. Some people have said this map was simply a mistake. But then in politics genuine mistakes are rare. Somalia's military government was brought down by Ethiopian backed rebels in 1991. Also remember that the SNM was promised recognition after they help bring down Barre.The next phase will be annexation of territory by 2030 including Somaliland.

[Che -Guevara]

Your solution to a problem is create problems?

And I don't get Somalis who say Ethiopia needs a port. How's that a Somali problem? It's likely saying my room doesn't have a window, yours does so let me move into your room.

In any case, Ethiopia stands a better chance of disintegration.  Forgeting about annexing Somali, there  will be lucky if they survive next election. Ethno-nationlism will be its downfall.

[Dhaqaale]

There are multiple generations of Somalis that have never seen Somalia at peace. They see the older generations as having squander the peace that Somalia had (1960-1988). Nobody under the age of 40 remember Somalia as a peaceful country. So the incentive to build is low. Mogadishu has been on fire since January 1991. That's almost 30 years. The risk of Somalia losing its statehood rises every year it fails to make peace.

[Dhaqaale]

15 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

Your solution to a problem is create problems?

And I don't get Somalis who say Ethiopia needs a port. How's that a Somali problem? It's likely saying my room doesn't have a window, yours does so let me move into your room.

In any case, Ethiopia stands a better chance of disintegration.  Forgeting about annexing Somali, there  will be lucky if they survive next election. Ethno-nationlism will be its downfall.

Ethiopia problems of ports will be solved by annex and consolidated Somalia soon. The issue of Ethiopia descending into a Somalia like chaos and anchary is slim. Somalis had a chance at self governing and failed. The sweet irony is that while Somalia fight each other based on clans the rest of the world see you as a single unit. You need to read my posts careful next time so I am not repeating my self. 

[galbeedi]

Dhaqane,

It is ok to sound the alarm to warn the  politician's how serious the issue is., because no one will accept another political conflict in Somalia . 

Yet, your Ethiopia argument is way off. While it is always prudent to watch Ethiopia, you missed the news that our Oromo brothers had disbanded a thousand year old empire in the last few years.

THe real threat is now Kenya which is very weak.

[Dhaqaale]

Do we even know if the assassination of Ali Sharmaker the second president of Somalia was done by a angry body guard? How much was he paid to get rid of a elected president? Why was there a coup 20 days later lead by a soviet trained army general named Barre. Why did Barre align with the Russians so quickly and blindly? Di he know that they would betray him if he entered the Ogaden?

Somalis never ponder these things as our country was ripped apart by foreign powers nobody ask the serious and important questions about our history and contact with the west. 300 years of contact with the Europeans and we cannot speak of it was a positive encounter. There is strong evidence to say the opposite. We have been left brain dead as a group, left to our own meaningless squabbles.

[Dhaqaale]

The scenario that I described is being planned by the Pentagon. Since Somalia sets on a strategic trade route between east and west. They want the political instability to come to an end one way or another. Somaliland is seeking independence but this is a fools erred as the SNM were promised this by mengestu in 1981 when they started their rebellion which is what motivated them in the beginning.

The Somali territories will be absorbed by Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti. As the West wants this location stable for future trade route and commercial domination. Tick Tock...

[galbeedi]

Dhaqane ,

I was trying to repond some of your points while ago, but some how side tracked. 

any way, you said, 

On 10/8/2019 at 9:47 AM, Dhaqaale said:

Do we even know if the assassination of Ali Sharmaker the second president of Somalia was done by a angry body guard? How much was he paid to get rid of a elected president?

Let me tell you a true story. in the middle of eighties while I was in Gahayr University, I used to sit and sip tea in the evenings in a small coffee shop adjutant to the Sheikh Cali Suufi mosque in Casapopolare. People usually sit there and wait until the Maqrib prayer is called. 

Me and a friend of mine used to sit there too, although we were not waiting for prayers, may Allah forgive us.  My buddy travelled back home to north a year earlier and he told me about a story narrated  to him by a man he met while travelling through central Somalia. The man told him that the man who assassinated Sharmaarke was not killed but was spared. He said he is a very tall and dark man with soft hair (Tima bis ah leh). He said he prays in Sheikh Suufi mosque, sits at that coffee shop before prayers  and is driven by a chauffeur.

While we were having a coffee my friend was  talking  to the same guy described to him by the story teller. While talking casually , the man said, ' in your life, never dare another man and tell him what he can't  do about it' or something of that nature. Afterwords, My friend said, this was the man described by the old narrator. This was the man who killed Sharmaarke. In fact, the accent of the man was from Bari. It was just about 17 years or so after the murder of Sharmaarke.

That was some bizarre thing, yet we went our ways and never even told the story  to anyone.

 

Now, let us get to the political angle. Some classified Soviet archives indicate that their was a real Russian communist operative within the Somali military way before the October revolution. It was well known that Siyaad Barre never believed communism or socialism, but used it just as a  mean to the further his power. Yet, there were real communists within the country.

Some suggested it was general Cali Samatar and A/raxman Caydiid. The later,  who left Somalia to form SDF after he became disillusioned  with the slow pace  socialism in Somalia, was the real communist ideologue of the country.. He didn't go to Ethiopia for tribal reasons but for communist principles.

Also, the Kacaan promised to give the power back to a civilian government within two years, as most coup leaders always claim. So, Soviet alliance and communism was the oily way to keep power and create dictatorship. 

By the way, in those days, that was the norm not the exception to the rule. Other than wester Europe the whole world were ruled by authoritarian strongmen. If it wasn't Siyaad Barre, others would have made the coup. It could Have been C/laahi Yusuf, Caydiid, Liiqliiqato or even Salaad Gabayre , the son in law of Aaden Cadde.  dozens of coups took place in Africa alone from 1960-70.

On the issue of Soviets betrayal of Siyaad Barre, a lot of literature is written.Try to read real books not internet BS.

The East German files also had shown the struggle within the Somali government, especially between  Cali Samatar and Ahmed Saleebaan Daffle. As files had shown, Daffle was pushing the Saudi and Egyptian agenda to ally Somali to the western front, while Samatar wanted to keep the Soviet and keep the way things were.  Millions of Saudi money poured in and Saleebaan Daffle finally convinced Siyaad Barre , his father in law to ditch the Soviet. Actually, some believe that since Somali joined the Arab league, the idea of getting rid of the soviet was there. Cumar Carte never believed in communism and the millions pouring from the gulf would eventually push Somalia to the capitalist's team.

In those days, the world was divided between the Warsow pact led by the Soviet and western democracies led by America. It was unthinkable for two communist allies to go to war. The Russians warned Siyaad Barre, but Somali irredentism took over the process. The Soviet ambassador said ' we will bring them to their knees'.

 

SNM and SPLM of Sudan was the product of Mengistu to curve out a communist regime out of those countries. Yet, a renown historian Dr. Raabi said that neither Ethiopia nor others will recognize Somaliland because as he put 'Somaalidu fadhiid ma ahan waxa laga yaabaa in ay dhaqaado oo Dalkaas Degen  ayaa la isugu iman kadibna kuwa kale la raadin'

 

Yet, history had shown that the world powers and even African Union member nations never sided with Somalia on any issue. When Ethiopia was under communists America gave Somalia only defensive weapons for fear of Somalia attacking Ethiopia. We are all well aware that Kenya isn't in Kismaayo to fight Al-Shabaab, because, Kenya never suffered any attacks from Al-Shabaab before their invasion in 2011. 

 

That is why we always say that a national government is necessary to test the waters early and see what had been planned. It is very hard to expose these plans while we are battling Al-Shabaab and among ourselves.

No nation is more strategic than Somalia today. We got 13 blocks of oil jjust on the shores between Mudug and Kismaayo (each block could produce a million barrel a day) . Uranuim in central Somalia, and well known deposits from Berbera to Zaylac.

As America withdraws from these useless wars of the middle east , these region and the sea lanes of the Red sea will be indispensable.

The trend in world affaires show that the gulf including the Saudis may collapse sooner than we think. Those who have traditional institutions like Tunisia, Algeria and even Iraq might survive, but the gulf with illegitimate rulers might collapse within.

 

Two weeks ago, the personal body guard of King Salmaan was shot dead by so called dispute from another guard or friend. He was the son of the Suldaan of Asir tribe. These are one of the main tribes that dominate the national guard and military. As we speak his tribe is agitating for revenge. Palace gossip says that the  body guard general  of the king was present when the king admonished Salmaan Jr. and threatened to replace him with his brother Khalis if doesn't control his recklessness. Some say in order to silence the guard and keep the secret inside he ordered one of his guys to shoot and kill the guard. The same guard was killed few days later for murder.

Conventional wisdom says as the gulf Arabs go down Somalia might rise. A reasonable Somali should cut their ties and create a new partnership with the rest of the world especially Asia where technology, economy, trade and power is shifting.

 

Bold steps are needed to move Somalia forward.

The Mogadishu quagmire can not be allowed to continue. The national capital should me move to small manageable town like Baraawe, Jowhar or Garoowe. …………...and

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Dhaqaale]

galbeedi,

The core reason why Somalia is in the state it is in is a simple one. There was no clear winner when it came to the civil war. Unlike Rwanda were one faction was able to restore central power. The USC and SPM were both on the same page when it came to a unity government until the SPM was accused of suddenly reversing direction and allied itself with Barre, who was seeking to reestablish his regime. Aideed could have step aside and let Ali mahid rule for 4 years and then campaign for election himself. But this type of thinking requires a high intellect which Somalis clearly do not possess.

Somalia has low cunning qablist hell bent on their clan rising above other Somali clans. Even in Somaliland you have hardcore qablist like Edna Adan only giving jobs and resources to her clan Arap. All of this is simply there was no clear winner in the civil war. Which is why I believe Somalis lost their country as soon as they picked up the gun.