Saudi Arabia must avoid at any cost to fall the neocon traps of war with Iran

[galbeedi]

It was 40 years ago tomorrow, September 22 1979 ,  that the long and bloody war between Iraq and Iran started. Two oil producing and developing nations who share culture and history  went to war for stupid and useless reasons. Saddam abrogated the treaty that marked the border between Iraq and Iran at  Shatt al-Arab river way that divided the two countries. In 1975 , as the vice president, Saddam Hussein himself signed the treaty of Algiers in Algeria. Yet,  as Iran went through the  turmoil of the Khomeini revolution, he saw a weakened state that could be invaded and tried to take back Shatt al Arab by force.

 

As the result,  a nine year bloody war left millions of casualties from both sides. It was the most devastating war since the Vietnam war. Two more wars involving Iraq had taken place since then , one in 1991 gulf war and the second gulf war which both involved Americans. Just like Ethiopia  followed the strategy of bringing the war between Somalia and Ethiopia inside Somalia using angry Somali tribes, Israel and America had succeeded to encourage the clashes of two of  the most advanced nations of the middle east. 

 

Ayatollah Khomeini declared the gulf Arab gulf monarchies as un Islamic and illegal institutions. In return , the gulf nations poured billions of  of dollars to keep Saddam in the war and defeat Iran. At the end , with no winners and millions of casualties, the war stopped in 1988.

 

Also, a large Wahabi and Saudi led religious propaganda campaign was initiated to make the Shia as the devil incarnate. Yet, when Saddam attacked Kuwait , a gulf state member, they couldn't resolve their internal problem. Rather than find solutions, they supported the American led coalition to remove Saddam. Bush senior expelled Saddam , but didn't want to weaken the balance of the power in the region and left both Iraq and Saddam intact. His immature son,  who doesn't know history or the middle east , were led by the neocons to invade Iraq following false claims of weapons of mass destruction.The removal of Iraq made Iran the sole power in the middle east.

 

With Syria and  Iraq destroyed, Yemen starving with sectarian civil war, and Egypt chained by a bloody dictator, the only two remaining countries in the middle east are Iran and Saudi Arabia. For years the Saudis and their corrupt side kick, the UAE , were campaigning for the destruction of Iran. Without thinking the consequences of that kind of conflict, they finally reached  the rubicon as they say in Rome. Years of threat of war and weapon procurement had reached its end game.

 

The blood thirsty and war mongering necons in America were clamoring for war against Iran since 2001. It was David Forum who penned the axis of evil speech targeting both Iran, Iraq and North Korea. 

 

Bush Jr. refused to wage war against Iran seeing the deadly consequences of Iraq war, and Obama with advice of American military and policy makers had agreed to reduce any possibility of war against Iran and concluded a treaty for the Iran nuclear proliferation. The Neocons led by Netanyahu and his supporters in U.S congress tried to derail the accord but all failed.  Finally, Trump , the crazy horse rider who claims to understand the danger of wars in the middle east  became president. In order to survive, Trump is aligning himself with the neocons and Israel with its fast network of supporters. Coupled with Saudi contracts that offered billions of dollars  to the american weapon manufacturers , this match made in hell is just waiting someone to ignite the fire.

 

Trump had declared his disdain for new wars in the middle east. He had signaled his intention to withdraw from Afghanistan and Syria, yet unforeseen events , armageddon hoping allies, and his internal weakness might lead him to war.  History had shown that despite the difficulty  to push a new war, American pro war industry and the neocon warmongers  always get their way. This war mongers are probably ahead of everyone else and might even get their wish.

 

Rather than just destroy Iran and create unforeseen quagmire  for America  in the middle east,  the neocons  might double down and use one stone to  kill two birds. THey might simultaneously create a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia  and make the middle east the most dangerous place on earth. I have no idea how could this war will take place, but , if there is ever going to be another war in the middle east,  it will  be one that will definitely destroy both Iran and Saudi Arabia. The necons  can';t wait another ten or so years for another big one , so they might as well finish off now that crazy Trump is at the helm. Everyone one is aware that  the next American president will be wary of war with Iran and might find solutions for the nuclear issue.

 

Now, if that war takes place , the consequences will not only affect the middle east but the whole world. The world consumes a 100 million barrel  of oil a day, and 10% of that is produced by Saudi Arabia. With the gulf burning , both the Bahrain and  UAE oil, and Qatar gas will be out of the market. Oil will hit one hundred or even 200 dollars per barrel. The local industries and economies of  countries like:  China, Japan, Korea,  India,  and western Europe , maily ITaly and France who import oil will collapse. North America, with immense oil production,  will survive and Canada could became an energy superpower. With the second largest oil deposits in the world, and stable geopolitical location . Canada will replace Saudi Arabia in the western hemisphere and even Asia.

 

Europe will absorb probably five to ten million refugees from the region. With 70 million Iranians and 30 million Saudis, even if  10% percent of population leaves , it  will change Europe for good.  Unlike the Syrians who have a five thousand years old civilization and traditional skills to survive, prosper and integrate, the Saudia haven't done an honest days work in their lifetime. Certainly they will have access with money which might make it easy for visa and foreign travel , but they will have hard time to settle among these nations with the their Wahabi tradition and lazy lifestyle.  Expect culture clashes and conflict for those who would made the trip.

 

With all this scary scenarios, the time has come for the Saudis to think carefully and find solutions with Iran. Despite firing missiles into Saudi territory, the Houthis control less than 30% of territory. The west, the south and even the east is controlled by others, so does all  the main ports except the hudaydah port which is contested and controlled by the UN. The Saudis  have done enough damage to Yemen infrastructure already. Also, unless they send full ground invasion, it will be difficult to destroy the local Houthis.  While most local Sunnies have sympathy with the Houthis against the Saudis, they do not want to be ruled by them. By all accounts, the Houthis are ready for a deal.

 

The Saudis must realize that they have failed all their political and military efforts in the region whether it is Iraq, Syria or Yemen. The  time has come to change strategy and find solutions with Iran. For decades, the Saudis were not liked by the Muslim communities around rhe world, but at least they were respected since they never involved in wars or open conflicts in the region or other parts of the world. Their position as the custodians of Makkah and Madinah should force them to be neutral and arbiterer among the Muslim nations.

 

This young Bin Salaan must be raigned and the Saudis must return to their old foreign policy of non confrontation. Also, Saudis must realize that their nation doesn't bode well among other nations, and if harm comes to them , they might not get any sympathy from  the world opinion. They do not realize that they are one the most hated nations in the world. 

 

They had already made many mistakes in all the wars that took place since 1979. If this war with Iran comes, it will be probably the last one in the middle east which will finish off many nations. Besides, the only real nations in the middle east were always Egypt, Syria, Tunisia and Iraq. The rest were tribes that got some money and built prefabricated capitals like Riyadh, Dubai and Tripoli.  They probably worse than our own tribes which had destroyed the only nation we were able to gain and could,t get up again.

 

The Saudis should avoid the necon traps and avoid conflict with Iran at any cost. They must change course and make deal with Iran. Their evil partener, the UAE had already made the deal with Iran and changed course. Who knows,.  Bin Zayed might have planned this all along to bury the Saudi Kingdom. If you need help talk to Turkey . THe Iranians are on the brink of economic disaster due to the American sanctions, and should be willing participants for any SAudi dialogue.

 

How about UNited states of America.

 

Empires are usually destroyed either by moral decay or wars in distant lands. The second world war had finished off the British empire for good and made America the leading power, seconded by the Soviet Union under the international communist  ideology.  Also, unlike the old colonial countries, America was seen as the shining city on the hill by the world. Everyone wanted to be an American until they took the mantle of the old empires and become the new empire.

 

For the last 28 years  America was involved  with couple of major wars in the middle east. The last war in Syria to fight ISIS and Assad in Syria was the third , and if you add the one in Afghanistan it makes the fourth major war in less than thirty years. When the late Chinese communist chairman Deng Xiaoping visited America in 1979, China was a communist black water with no major industrial output. When he  toured Houston, Texas, he said he want to see were the chips are made, not the potato chips.  Since then, the communist China kept gaining and gaining while America was running in the middle east like a mad dog.

 

In 1991, America expelled Saddam from Kuwait in order  to make the oil  follow to the Asian nations and Europe uninterrupted. Billions were lost. In 2003 when Bush Jr. decided to invade Iraq again, the Chinese abstained at the UN vote and flooded the American market with cheap goods while uncle Sam was chasing Arabs . They kept the surplus money in America and bought American treasury bonds which reached over trillion dollars today. It just took them twenty years to become the second largest economy.

 

Obama reversed that policy and decided to realign American policy against China and Russia. He deployed troops to Australia and decided to leave the middle east. That shift continues under Trump. Yet, a new war in the middle east will give China a breathing room . A war with Iran will probably finish off America as the natural leader of the world. The coming disaster will allow both Russia , China and Turkey to take over the middle east and north Africa.

 

Also, war waged by narcissistic leader who knows everything and overruled everyone will be  the kind of leader who will finish off America.. The war with Iran will remove America from the world stage  just as the second world war finished the British empire.

 

We all hope that there will never be a another war in the middle east, but if one comes, the world will change forever.

 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

I saw the Saudi foreign minister speak the situation in the middle East is intense. But I don't think Saudi Arabia is stupid enough to start a war with Iran. It will ruin their country beyond repair. In other news galbeedi your prime minister wedjigi bu madoobeystey. Allot of backclash for him as he awaits elections. 

 

[galbeedi]

 

 

[galbeedi]

it has damaged his stock and image. 

But, He will survive probably due to his good record toward minorities and multiculturalism. Private rich academies are notaries using costumes to mock blacks and others. 

Imagine Trump saying he shocked. 

 

 

[galbeedi]

Apophis , 

how many times i told you I do not need a job.

In order to prove that I am an independent man with no political association, I will take a hiatus from commenting these issues. 

All i want is a working and stable nation. I want a second fair election in Jubba. 

Is that too much to ask?

 

[Old_Observer]

16 hours ago, galbeedi said:

 

 

We all hope that there will never be a another war in the middle east, but if one comes, the world will change forever.

 

You are giving these Arabs too much credit and to high of a place.

 

 

[Old_Observer]

These Arabs were useless and money even made them more useless.

USA is negotiating with Houthis.

galbeedi,

It looks like the Saudis at least some of them are following/listening.

Now th talk is the attack is from Yemen, but still it was Iran technology.

When the Saudis agreed to but more weapons, more american soldiers (probably 10 million a year for a poor amrican soldier that gets paid 40-50 thousand a year).

Now the story is changing.

[galbeedi]

There is a breaking news in the Arabian country.

The new American ambassador in Saudi Arabia , John Abizaid is a Pentagon guy who is opposed to any new military adventure. Bin Salman Jr. might be deposed. Even Sisi could be ousted. The Pentagon doesn't want anymore to be hoodwinked by Necons or corrupt gulf boys.

The UAE is going through internal quarrel. The Abu Dhabi ruling class had destroyed anu chances of Dubai and other Emirates to prosper again. 

The axis of evil: Netanyahu, Bin Zayd, Bin Salman Jt. and Trump could be history within a year. A second Arab spring is in the works. This time no one will be able stop

[maakhiri1]

Saudis are begging US not to start war, they are extremely vulnerable and will be toast.

With 100s of billions spent on defense,  could not even detect small drones