Population numbers: Somalis race to join big four

[Che -Guevara]

In the next two decades, Somalis will have overtaken the top three largest communities in Kenya to be the most populous group if the current population trends remain.   

The latest Household Survey shows that Somalis' families are at least one and a half times bigger than the average household in Kenya, and twice as much as the families in Nyeri, Nairobi, Mombasa and Kiambu counties.Wajir, Mandera and Garissa counties, which are home to most Kenyan Somalis, have between six and seven children on average, according to the Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey (KIHBS), 2015/16.Wajir has the biggest families at 6.6 children per household, followed by Mandera 6.4 and Garissa 5.5 members per household.

Other counties with bigger households are Tana River and West Pokot which have 5.4 people, on average, in every household. The survey was released by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). “Relatively high average household sizes were recorded in arid and semi-arid counties (ASAL) of Wajir, Garissa and Mandera,” Mr Zachary Mwangi, the KNBS Director General said.Whereas some households in North Eastern have about seven members on average, households in Kiambu, Nairobi, Nyeri and Murang’a appear to be shrinking in sizes, helped by increased use of contraceptives, having more educated populations and the impact of urbanisation.“Those numbers are very factual and represent what is actually happening on the ground,” Aden Duale, leader of majority in National Assembly and the region’s top ranking Government official, told the Saturday Standard yesterday.

Duale said that the North Eastern is largely dominated by Muslims and both their religion and culture prohibit family planning. “In 2009, people thought the numbers given were not genuine and even went to court. But this new report being released a year before the next census confirms that the numbers were correct,” Duale said.The survey ranks Nyeri County as having the smallest sizes of households in the country at 2.9 people on average per home. Nairobi and Mombasa counties have an average of three people each per home - that is a father, mother and one child, or one parent and two children.Largest communityKiambu, Kirinyaga and Murang’a counties, where most of Kenya’s largest community, the Kikuyu, come from, are also ranked among the six counties with the smallest households.“The average household size in rural areas was higher, at 4.5 members compared to 3.3 members in urban areas.

Wajir, Mandera and Garissa counties recorded high average household sizes of 6.6, 6.4 and 5.5 members, respectively,” the report notes.All these are below the national average of 4 people per household. The KIHBS survey defines a household size as the number of persons living together in a household.“Nationally, the average household size was estimated at 4 members in 2015/16 KIHBS, which was a decline from 5.1 members reported in 2005/06 KIHBS,” the report notes in part. “Households with 1 to 2 members accounted for 31.6 per cent of all households,” the report adds.The findings support a previous report that ranked Central Kenya as the top county in usage of family planning, while the north Eastern region was hardly using any contraceptives. According to the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2014, the penetration of contraceptives in Central Kenya, which is home to Kiambu, Nyeri and Kirinyaga counties was at 73 per cent. This means that 7 in every 10 women in Central were using some form of family planning. On the contrary, in North Eastern region, only 3 per cent of their population, or 3 in every 100 people were using contraceptives. 

In the last census, population growth in North Eastern Kenya rose almost three-fold, from 962,143 in 1999 to 2.3 million in 2009. In Mandera, where the population boom was most pronounced, the numbers had quadrupled in a decade. Current projections show that Kenya has about 50 million people within its borders. The explosion of the Somali population caused tension in the 2009 census.Some of the results of the census especially that covered North Eastern region were partially cancelled by the then Planning Minister Wycliffe Oparanya, who is the current governor of Kakamega County.

But the matter landed in court and was reversed. “The numbers from North Eastern region did not fit the normal population trends and that is why I rejected them,” Oparanya said.This is after it emerged that the population growth rates in the region deviated significantly from patterns noted in the rest of the country and in the respective neighbouring districts. The population in the north seemed to be growing fastest compared with other regions despite the fact that the area had fewer women.“My understanding at the time was that the region inflated their numbers to benefit from increased allocation of resources after devolution. Areas with bigger populations were to benefit from increased allocation,” Oparanya said.Since independence, Kenya’s biggest community has been the Kikuyu, which is now 17 per cent of the population or 6.8 million people as per the 2009 census.

According to the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC), the second biggest group is the Luhya, which stands at 14 per cent of the population, at about 5.4 million people.The Kalenjin come third, making up 11 per cent of the population. Given that voters cast their ballots along these ethnic blocs, the larger communities have always had an advantage over the smaller ones whenever there is competition for power.“There are more than 42 ethnic communities in Kenya. Language and cultural background are the main criteria for ethnic identification in Kenya,” NCIC says in its report. The other big ethnic groups by size are Luo at 10.8 per cent and Kamba at 10 per cent. The Kenyan Somalis are now at position six and if they grow at the same pace as they have done in the last two decades, they will be in the top four.In the last census, population growth in North Eastern Kenya rose almost three-fold, from 962,143 in 1999 to 2.3 million in 2009.

 

The Somali population explosion : The Standard

WWW.STANDARDMEDIA.CO.KE

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Somali’s families are one and a half times bigger than the average household in Kenya.

 

[Dahireeto]

Been badanaa. We are struggling and could be extint in the next 3 decades. 

[Tillamook]

1 hour ago, Dahireeto said:

Been badanaa. We are struggling and could be extint in the next 3 decades. 

lol  

Saaxiib habaarka yaree and get busy with the Madame.

 

[Old_Observer]

Che,

This is a two edged sword.

The more the Somali, the more splitting happens. More inter Somali competition also happens.

Unless the outlook changes to fighting against foreigners the Somali cannot unite. The Somali will fight for the little grassland that is near instead of organizing some special Nomad groups and go raid new grass lands.

The way things are at the moment, this is actually more bad than good.

 

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

 

Why rising Somali numbers scare us

• We are afraid of the tables being turned

• Afraid that once they are numerous enough to control state resources, they will treat the rest of us just as we have treated them since Independence

An impassioned storm was recently ignited on social media by reports that two chiefs had been arrested in Wajir county amidst allegations of inflating population figures in the national census, a rather interesting departure from the typical indifference that generally greets reports of wrongdoing in the conduct of public affairs.

Population figures in the former Northeastern Province, which most Somali Kenyans call home, have always been a hotly contested issue every time the counting exercise is around the corner. Census results from Mandera, Wajir and Garissa were cancelled and revised downwards by the Planning ministry in 2009, sparking a legal battle between the government and political representatives from the region.

In February, Moses Kuria, the eccentric MP for Gatundu South, enraged sections of the Somali community when he warned in a Facebook post about foreign nationals crossing the border "to beef up the numbers of some communities". He added crudely that this time the government would be "using biometric technology, not improvised explosive devices" to conduct the census.

'Tyranny: Somalis race to join Big Four' was the headline splashed across the front page of a Saturday Standard edition in March 2018, evoking the famous tyranny of numbers mantra first popularised by Mutahi Ngunyi to describe Kenya's heavily ethnicised political scene. On Kenyan streets nowadays, in bars, social gatherings and dinner tables, there are endless whispers about Somalis "taking over" the country.

For tribes that have been heavily represented in power since Independence, the tribal game has paid off handsomely at the expense of those who have not been on the right side of the tyranny of numbers.

The distinguished American scholar Noam Chomsky once described his country's white population as a group continuously terrified that an empowered black population would turn around and take revenge for their historical oppression. The same psychosis plagued the white minority in apartheid South Africa who feared that black people, once in power, would treat white people just as badly as they had treated them.

Ever since the Union Jack descended from Kenyan flagpoles in 1963, the Kenyan cake has been eaten in an extremely inequitable fashion. The tribe of the president has been a reliable indicator of the general flow of resources, patronage and jobs in the public sector. In 1971, notes the historian Daniel Branch in his book Kenya: Between Hope and Despair, an entire half of the 222 top earners in the civil service were Kikuyu. The same ranks filled up disproportionately with people of Kalenjin ethnicity in the 1980s as the new tribe moved into State House, a vicious tribal game that continues to this day.

In a just society where tribe does not matter at all, where a person from a tiny tribe is just as likely to be healthy, well fed, educated, employed and secure as a person from a large tribe, where the tribe of the president says nothing about the flow of resources and opportunities, there would be nothing to fear about the population growth of any particular community.

This gross unfairness was one of the key factors behind the stark inequalities that crystallised on the Kenyan scene as the decades went along. By the turn of the millennium, according to a 2004 report on inequality in Kenya by the Society for International Development, people living in Central Province were six times more likely to have a job than people living in Northeastern Province; 12 times more likely to have access to piped water; six times more likely to have access to electricity and five times more likely to be enrolled in primary school.

For tribes that have been heavily represented in power since Independence, the tribal game has paid off handsomely at the expense of those who have not been on the right side of the tyranny of numbers. The visceral fear of Somali population growth currently spreading on the Kenyan social landscape is the dread of a guilty party afraid of the tables being turned, afraid that once Somali Kenyans are numerous enough to control state resources in Kenya, they will treat the rest of us just as we have treated them since Independence. The guilty, indeed, are always afraid.

In a just society where tribe does not matter at all, where a person from a tiny tribe is just as likely to be healthy, well fed, educated, employed and secure as a person from a large tribe, where the tribe of the president says nothing about the flow of resources and opportunities, there would be nothing to fear about the population growth of any particular community. But we have thoroughly failed to create such a society, and so we must live with the consequences of our actions.

Xigasho

[maakhiri1]

On 9/5/2019 at 2:36 AM, Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar said:

 

Why rising Somali numbers scare us

• We are afraid of the tables being turned

• Afraid that once they are numerous enough to control state resources, they will treat the rest of us just as we have treated them since Independence

An impassioned storm was recently ignited on social media by reports that two chiefs had been arrested in Wajir county amidst allegations of inflating population figures in the national census, a rather interesting departure from the typical indifference that generally greets reports of wrongdoing in the conduct of public affairs.

Population figures in the former Northeastern Province, which most Somali Kenyans call home, have always been a hotly contested issue every time the counting exercise is around the corner. Census results from Mandera, Wajir and Garissa were cancelled and revised downwards by the Planning ministry in 2009, sparking a legal battle between the government and political representatives from the region.

In February, Moses Kuria, the eccentric MP for Gatundu South, enraged sections of the Somali community when he warned in a Facebook post about foreign nationals crossing the border "to beef up the numbers of some communities". He added crudely that this time the government would be "using biometric technology, not improvised explosive devices" to conduct the census.

'Tyranny: Somalis race to join Big Four' was the headline splashed across the front page of a Saturday Standard edition in March 2018, evoking the famous tyranny of numbers mantra first popularised by Mutahi Ngunyi to describe Kenya's heavily ethnicised political scene. On Kenyan streets nowadays, in bars, social gatherings and dinner tables, there are endless whispers about Somalis "taking over" the country.

For tribes that have been heavily represented in power since Independence, the tribal game has paid off handsomely at the expense of those who have not been on the right side of the tyranny of numbers.

The distinguished American scholar Noam Chomsky once described his country's white population as a group continuously terrified that an empowered black population would turn around and take revenge for their historical oppression. The same psychosis plagued the white minority in apartheid South Africa who feared that black people, once in power, would treat white people just as badly as they had treated them.

Ever since the Union Jack descended from Kenyan flagpoles in 1963, the Kenyan cake has been eaten in an extremely inequitable fashion. The tribe of the president has been a reliable indicator of the general flow of resources, patronage and jobs in the public sector. In 1971, notes the historian Daniel Branch in his book Kenya: Between Hope and Despair, an entire half of the 222 top earners in the civil service were Kikuyu. The same ranks filled up disproportionately with people of Kalenjin ethnicity in the 1980s as the new tribe moved into State House, a vicious tribal game that continues to this day.

In a just society where tribe does not matter at all, where a person from a tiny tribe is just as likely to be healthy, well fed, educated, employed and secure as a person from a large tribe, where the tribe of the president says nothing about the flow of resources and opportunities, there would be nothing to fear about the population growth of any particular community.

This gross unfairness was one of the key factors behind the stark inequalities that crystallised on the Kenyan scene as the decades went along. By the turn of the millennium, according to a 2004 report on inequality in Kenya by the Society for International Development, people living in Central Province were six times more likely to have a job than people living in Northeastern Province; 12 times more likely to have access to piped water; six times more likely to have access to electricity and five times more likely to be enrolled in primary school.

For tribes that have been heavily represented in power since Independence, the tribal game has paid off handsomely at the expense of those who have not been on the right side of the tyranny of numbers. The visceral fear of Somali population growth currently spreading on the Kenyan social landscape is the dread of a guilty party afraid of the tables being turned, afraid that once Somali Kenyans are numerous enough to control state resources in Kenya, they will treat the rest of us just as we have treated them since Independence. The guilty, indeed, are always afraid.

In a just society where tribe does not matter at all, where a person from a tiny tribe is just as likely to be healthy, well fed, educated, employed and secure as a person from a large tribe, where the tribe of the president says nothing about the flow of resources and opportunities, there would be nothing to fear about the population growth of any particular community. But we have thoroughly failed to create such a society, and so we must live with the consequences of our actions.

Xigasho

Nice article,  answer is detribilize. 

Same problems in Somalia abt resources issue

[Holac]

Kenyans are spreading propaganda and fear. Somali population is growing, but so are the other communities. As Somalis become wealthy, they too will have less kids.

[maakhiri1]

I did not get the idea, what is so good about  breeding like rabbits ?

High birth rate is good for country like SOMALIA with very low life expectancy.

but in Somalis in Kenya, should focus, good,  educated, strong,  and have Quality.