Shifring Arab sands and Yemen

[Old_Observer]

The balance of forces in Yemen has completely changed last 2 months and now the maps are changing in major way.

The Southern separatists who were only a minor force until few weeks ago have catapulted themselves to No.3

1. Ansarullah

2. Old government late Abdullah Saleh

3. Southern separatists

4. Alqaeda

5. Fake government of Hadi

 

UAE has been hit by the door while running out. They have to support the separatists otherwise UAE will be kicked from Aden totally, and yet they cannot eliminate Saudi's man and his group. Catch 22. They cannot delay their withdrawal since their home is at risk.

Saudis want to stop the war, but Ansarullah smells blood now and want to chase the Saudis out of the two southern provinces that are on a 99 year lease to Saudis.

As the mercenaries see this shenanigan are not willing to take risk, thus weakening the Saudi even more.

 

Everyone in Horn needs to take notice and never overcommitt your feet on Arab Sand.

 

 

[Duufaan]

If not solved soon, the Yemen problem will end the Saudi family rule. 

[Suldaanka]

It is out of control. The Saudis have been defeated in the mountains. And South Yemen Indepedence movement has thrown a spanner into Suadi's plans. 

All the indications are the issue will get only bigger and Iran will get more involved. 

 

[Duufaan]

1 minute ago, Suldaanka said:

It is out of control. The Saudis have been defeated in the mountains. And South Yemen Indepedence movement has thrown a spanner into Suadi's plans. 

All the indications are the issue will get only bigger and Iran will get more involved. 

 

This is all about the mess that UAE and their friends created. Pray that the mess will not reach to Berbera!

[Suldaanka]

5 minutes ago, Duufaan said:

This is all about the mess that UAE and their friends created. Pray that the mess will not reach to Berbera!

The issue predates the UAE. It was triggered by the Houthi upraising, which got hand from Iran and Hezbollah. 

But the response from the Saudi led effort to restore their influence has been a disaster. 

The idea of South Yemen liberating Sanna is like expecting Somalilanders to die liberating Mogadishu. It just doesn't work. That is what the UAE acknowledged and as a buffer zone, it will support the Aden movement to secure their areas from Houthi rebels. 

Yemen is history. The Houthis cannot be defeated, neither the Houthis are able to control the whole country. 

[Duufaan]

4 minutes ago, Suldaanka said:

The issue predates the UAE. It was triggered by the Houthi upraising, which got hand from Iran and Hezbollah. 

But the response from the Saudi led effort to restore their influence has been a disaster. 

The idea of South Yemen liberating Sanna is like expecting Somalilanders to die liberating Mogadishu. It just doesn't work. That is what the UAE acknowledged and as a buffer zone, it will support the Aden movement to secure their areas from Houthi rebels. 

Yemen is history. The Houthis cannot be defeated, neither the Houthis are able to control the whole country. 

Can UAE survive without Saudi Arabia? No way.  The gamble is over but you did not answer how all this will effect the Berbera corridor. No surprise that Biixi meet Farmaajo people publicly. 

[galbeedi]

Berbera was taken by the UAE to stage air strikes against Yemen if they could not secure ADen. Before Berbera, they asked Djibouti to join the campaign , but Cumar Ghelle refused. 

THe UAE adventure is almost over. They haven't lost any money in Berbera so far. Five million a year is nothing. Dahabshill or anyone else could have done that deal.  

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

The break up of Yemen is coming and is in the making. This wonderful news 

[Old_Observer]

12 hours ago, galbeedi said:

Berbera was taken by the UAE to stage air strikes against Yemen if they could not secure ADen. Before Berbera, they asked Djibouti to join the campaign , but Cumar Ghelle refused. 

THe UAE adventure is almost over. They haven't lost any money in Berbera so far. Five million a year is nothing. Dahabshill or anyone else could have done that deal.  

galbeedi,

You can be proud of all Somalis of any enclave on this one. There might be difference in intensity of the NO, but all Somalis said no to blood money on Yemen. From Ghelleh to Farmaajo to Moodabe everybody said NO.

As you said Gheleh puts Eritrea to shame, for not wanting a penny of blood money. The Saudis were forced to open a base in Djibouti that cannot be used for Yemen. The UAE had to do bombing with aircraft and missiles from Assab Eritrea.

Farmaajo said no to Egypt. Moodabe and Gas said no to sending ilitias like Sudan allowed the Janjeweed militais to make money on their own.

All Somali were noble on Yemen.

 

[Old_Observer]

5 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

The break up of Yemen is coming and is in the making. This wonderful news 

You do not benefit anything. Actually you lose a lot since Berbera will totally give way to Aden as Assab Eritrea has given way to Djibouti no matter how much propaganda was told for pipeline, refinery, modern port to compete with Djibouti..etc

Its not good to wish ill on others, especially when you have nothing to gain.

 

[Old_Observer]

The only power that has credibility left to even sit the Yemenis together is only Turkish.

Other than distributing humanitarian assistance they are not involved in the destruction. Its unfortunate that both America and Britain do not want Turkish involved and the Turkish are also very busy around home.

The rest of the powers are all either taken sides or done cruel things like blocades of food and medicine.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Yemen has been an enemy state against Eritrea and somaliland for decades. It was never one state and now with the houthis the country is under destruction and will remain so for the next coming decades. 

[Dhaqaale]

Somaliland will be colonised by Arab states by 2030. Why 2030? because Saudi vision 2030 wants access to the red sea. A weak Somaliland is good for Arabia.

[Old_Observer]

On 8/22/2019 at 1:22 AM, galbeedi said:

Berbera was taken by the UAE to stage air strikes against Yemen if they could not secure ADen. Before Berbera, they asked Djibouti to join the campaign , but Cumar Ghelle refused. 

THe UAE adventure is almost over. They haven't lost any money in Berbera so far. Five million a year is nothing. Dahabshill or anyone else could have done that deal.  

Me thinks, Berebera was taken by UAE for three reasons:

1. If they fail totally in Yemen, Berbera is closest and safer port they have to be a player around Bab Elmendeb.

2. They knew that there will be changes in Ethiopia, since it has been about 3 years in the works from USA. America was unable to separate and break the Tigray from China, Turkey and Russia, but did not have any replacement. Any replacement should be friends with Eritrea and not Sudan. UAE was also in conflict with Ghelleh all those years, but Assab was useless in competition to Djibouti.

3. Berbera is only threat to Djibouti never Assab even in the 19th century, 20th or now 21st. Therefore UAE can threaten Djibouti only from Berbera.

 

If yu think was for military use, it does not make sense. Assab was more useful to fight Houthi than Berbera could ever be. Practically that is also wat happened.