UN envoy James Swan want to get rid of Ahmed Madoobe, but Proff. Gaandhi want to keep until Al-shabaab is defeated.

[galbeedi]

According to the people close to the UN envoy Madoobe was pressed to allow fair and free elections, which in turn translates his ouster. A free election will definitely eliminate Madoobe. Before disclosing what James Swan said , let us talk to Jubbaland residents and the current situation in Kismaayo.

 

Few days ago I had a conversation with  friend of mine from Jubbaland , who not  is only a resident of Alberta, but went to Kismaayo and participated  in the early Jubbaland creation  conferences. Few times a week me and other friends connect some kind of phone conference and discuss the latest news back home. While we discuss in general about the federal government, Somaliland, Puntalnd, and other regions, he is our point man in jubbaland  due to his close connection in the region.

 

THis time he shared a conversation he had with Proff. Mohamed A. Gaandhi. 

 

Let me disclose first that our friend supports other candidates and believes the peaceful exit of Ahmed Madoobe to be a good step forward by the people. Not only he supports change, but being former civil servant of Somalia , he is a Somali nationalist who has hopes for the restoration of the state.

 

I asked  his  main reason for the change and he pointed out three main area of failure by Madoobe. 

 

Here is his own words: "  the KIsmaayo hospital is almost collapsing with no meaningful medical activity, and he has done nothing to improve despite the availability of donor money. In terms of education, his education minister is a man with no basic education at all. Other than the interior minister, Mr. Darwiish, none of His government ministers have an official office to conduct government business, and usually they sit under tree or Kismayo hotels to kill time. Furthermore, in terms of infrastructure , the main road leading  to his own residence is flooded by water , garbage and sewage water, yet he paases through that street and sees the disrepair. 

 

THat is how he describes the three main institutions of the government mainly,: education, healthcare and public service activities. How about his moves to hijack and steal the election, I asked. He said, " he appointed a committee to manage the elections without the parliament. Usually, Somali elections are mainly conducted by the members of parliament. As it happened in Mogadishu in 2017 where the parliament committee appointed C/raxman Bayle to lead the election supervision and rules, as well as the election Puntalnd held few months ago followed the same formula of the parliament selecting the committee to manage the election." 

 

" since NMadoobe is hell bent to undermine and disqualify  other candidates, he ordered the challengers to register themselves within four days, but the candidates rejected both his deadline and the people he appointed. He then asked his own staff to go and register as candidates." 

 

in fact, it is the first time inj modern history of Somali elections that the incumbent tries to stop others to run against him.

 

I asked him that if that is the case why would an influential leader like Gaandhi support Madoobe.

 

Jubba Man:  I had a long over an hour conversation with Gaandhi last night and he argued that without Madoobe JUbbland might collapse under the threat of Al-shbaab . According to Gaandhi , Madoobe controls almost all of the soldiers of Jubba who are close clan relatives  and without him at the helm they may just leave Kismaayo for good and relocate to their original home land in Qoraxay and Godey.  These departures might cause a security vacuum for the region. Mr. Gaandhi, although acknowledging the incompetence of Madoobe running a government, he believes that Madoobe should be kept there at the moment until Al-shabaab is defeated.

 

Here Proff. Gaandhi is trying to keep Madoobe in power in order to scare people about Al-shabaab will take over. The fact is Madoobe controls one city of the whole Jubbland  region and can not venture 10 km outside the city. Gaandhi even mentioned that the UN envoy Janes Swan favors keeping the status quo. Yet people inside Mogadishu and at the UN office paint a different picture.

 

According to insiders, James Swan has demanded the removal of Madoobe by fair ballot box. The report indicate that Mr. Sawn has said, " We would have killed Ahmed Madoobe when we captured while committing terrorist activity within Al-shabaab but, it was the Ethiopian who begged us to spare him and tried to extract information about the movement. So, Mr. Swan explicitly said that Madoobe, as the last standing warlord has no business in the future of the region. Somali government should demand the files they have on Madoobe including the interrogations. Remember after Madoobe is being interrogated, he was airlifted to Germany by Ethiopia for treatment. 

 

Despite his gerrymandering and maneuvering , Madoobe can not survive a fair election. There was also reports about the C/raxman Faroole clan including Mr. JUxa trying to give boost to Madoobe to survive.

 

[Che -Guevara]

During his tenure, like many Somali leaders, he has done little to reconcile communities and form an inclusive administration. 

He has lost the support of key figures including Seeraar and international community are not in mood to appease him.

It looks like the security is being taken over by Ethiopians, an unfortunate development by itself. It's better for him to follow Xaaf's example and leave before he's pushed out.

[galbeedi]

2 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

It looks like the security is being taken over by Ethiopians, an unfortunate development by itself. It's better for him to follow Xaaf's example and leave before he's pushed out.

 

It is not good to extend the Ethiopian army all the way to JUbbaland , but it was Ethiopia of Meles Zanawi  who forced Kenya to push aside Proff. Gaandhi---the natural leader of the project--and replace with Madoobe. THey knew he was former Al-shabaab and Islamic court member yet, they chose him for a reason .

Somali leaders installed by foreign powers will never accept or heed any advice or find common understanding  with another Somali, but they will willingly take orders of their backers. So, despite the Kenyan objections, Ethiopia must call back their man. THey have his files and history. His own militia was armed and organized by Cabdi Illey and Ethiopia, and I am sure they will not object their patron--Ethiopia.

 

[gooni]

Madoobe haduu dadka la tartamaya caburinta iyo caga juglaynta ka dayn lahaa

Odoyaasha kala sooca iyo wax is daba marinta, laaluushka joojin lahaa

Fedaraalka  meel dhexe ugu tagi lahaa 

Amxaar salaan kuma boobeen asagoo hoos fiirinaya aragtidayda.

Soomaaliya waa dal burburay oo daciif ah qab aadan xaq u lahayn laguma dhaanteeyo.

[maakhiri1]

This dumb illiterate should be get rid off asap

[Dhoodaan]

the above haters, Please keep dreaming. the father of jubaland Amir Madoobe is here to stay, and it ain;t shit that yo all can do about it. if you can not stop jubaland when it was infant,  you can not and will not stop now. and the dude who started this none sense topic, please concentrate Borame where you ass is from. stay away jubaland affairs.

[Che -Guevara]

1 hour ago, Dhoodaan said:

the above haters, Please keep dreaming. the father of jubaland Amir Madoobe is here to stay, and it ain;t shit that yo all can do about it. if you can not stop jubaland when it was infant,  you can not and will not stop now. and the dude who started this none sense topic, please concentrate Borame where you ass is from. stay away jubaland affairs.

Father? You got jokes. How much do you want to bet on his return?

[Dhoodaan]

Only if u have any clue, how the jubaland project get where it's now and all the obstacles it went thru when it was first proposed.  please educate your self before you bet anything.

Classified By: Somalia Unit Counselor Bob Patterson for reasons 1.4(b,d
).

1. (C) Summary: Darod/Ogaden clan heavyweight Ahmed Madobe,
in coordination with TFG officials, appears to be stepping up
efforts to take Kismayo and consolidate control of Lower
Juba. (Note: Hassan al-Turki is the nominal head of the Ras
Kamboni group, which has been working to overthrow the TFG.
In recent months Turki's top commanders Ibrahim Shukri and
Madobe have worked behind the scenes to marginalize al-Turki
within his Ogaden/Mohamed Zubeyr subclan and move against
al-Shabaab. End Note.) Our contacts tell us TFG
Minister of Defense, the TFG Minister of Finance, and the
Prime Minister are aware of and support Madobe's plans.
Madobe has been appointed head of an evolving Lower Juba
entity, which is locally administered and has links to the
TFG. Shukri has been appointed head of internal affairs. The
appointments of Madobe and Shukri grew out of recent
meetings in Juba and Nairobi between their supporters and
predominantly Darod/Kabalah clan leaders and MPs (reftel).
Our contacts report that many Marehan figures in Gedo, to
include long-time warlord Barre Hirale, appear uninterested
in cooperating with Lower Juba to form a Jubaland entity
unless they (Marehan) are in charge. End summary.

Madobe Prepares for "War" with Al-Shabaab
-----------------------------------------

2. (C) A close ally of Ahmed Madobe on August 12 told us that
he had just returned from meeting Madobe at the Kenyan
border. Madobe held a meeting in Dhoble on August 13, during
which he reportedly assured NGOs and humanitarian
organizations that they could operate in areas under his
control. After the meeting Madobe told our contact that he
intended to return to Kismayo and was preparing for war with
al-Shabaab. Madobe said he recently traveled to Mogadishu to
encourage his allies to take part in a Kismayo offensive. An
Ogaden business figure close to Madobe, Mohamed Sheikh, on
August 12 told us that Madobe said the focus should be on
Kismayo. After Kismayo was under his control, consideration
would be given to Gedo Region. Mohamed Shiekh told us that
Madobe does not intend to push beyond lower Juba. Sheikh
had just been in Mogadishu, where he met with the TFG
Ministers of Defense and Finance and the Prime Minister, who
all supported Madobe's plans. Shukri told the Minister of
Defense that Madobe's plan was the kind of initiative that
"he would fund." In Mohamed Sheikh's view, Darod/Kabalah
subclans were behind the evolving Lower Juba administration
and would add currently inactive militia to the fight. (Note:
Mohamed Sheikh is the chairman of Somalia's second largest
telecom company. End note.)

3. (C) Our contacts tell us that Madobe has been appointed
head of an evolving Lower Juba entity, which is locally
administered and has links to the TFG while Ibrahim Shukri
has been appointed head of the entity's internal affairs.
Madobe's role is essentially military and Shukri's is
administrative. The appointments grew out of recent
meetings in Juba and Nairobi between the supporters of Madobe
and Shukri and predominantly-Darod/Kabalah clan leaders and
MPs. In mid-July a 27-person Steering Committee was formed
for Jubaland, but our contacts say that arguments continue
over who will occupy key positions (reftel). (Note: Madobe
appears to both head the Ras Kamboni organization and an
emerging Jubaland administration. Al-Turki is described as
aging, marginalized within his Ogaden/Mohamed Zubeyr subclan,
and increasingly loyal to al-Shabaab. Other contacts
involved in the mid-July meetings tell us there was support
for Madobe among the Darod/Kabalah leaders. End note.)

The Question of Gedo and the Marehan
-------------------------------------

4. (C) Darod/Kabalah contacts on August 12 told us there is
disagreement between the Darod/Marehan clan in Gedo region
about joining Lower Juba representatives to form a Jubaland.
The most influential Marehan leaders in Gedo, to include
long-time warlord Barre Hirale, appear uninterested in
cooperating with Lower Juba to form a Jubaland unless they
are in charge. Other Juba contacts report some Marehan
support the idea, but they are the less influential and not
well-armed members of the subclan.

NAIROBI 00001710 002.5 OF 002

Many Darod leaders from Juba and Gedo reportedly agree
on the general principle of a Jubaland state subordinate
to the TFG, but remain divided over who will control
Jubaland and the port of Kismayo. One option being
considered is a Jubaland state with two regions, Middle Juba
and Lower Juba. Middle Juba, in this scenario, would
be predominantly Marehan and Lower Juba would be
primarily Ogaden and Puntlandersteen. Our contacts, however,
indicate the Ogaden and Puntlandersteen would insist on the
presidency of a united Jubaland. Mohamed Sheikh said it is
widely believed in Lower Juba that Ethiopia intends to
support the Marehan's claims on Kismayo because Addis Ababa
would be threatened by an Ogaden-led Lower Juba
administration. (Note: The Ogaden is currently the most
powerful subclan within the Darod/Kabalah in Lower Juba. The
Darod/Kabalah also contains the Puntlandersteen subclan. The
Darod/Marehan power base remains Gedo region, or "Middle
Juba." End note.)

[Che -Guevara]

It matters not how it started. The question is will Madoobe be 'elected" again?

And enough with clan bs. Madoobe doesn't care about anyone but himself and his cronies. He is no different than Sharif Sakiin, Gas and Xaaf.

[Dhoodaan]

you did not get the pointt. unlike failmajo, gaas and sharif, xaaf. Madobe started this project from get go and he is sole owner till the project is complete.  act like an adult  and please stop believing Failmajo lies. he who controls elections gets elected.

[Che -Guevara]

Sole owner?

Oh, yes, Madoobe rode into Kismayo all by himself. Thanks  for laugh. But you still haven't answered the question, what makes you think he will come back.

[Dhoodaan]

 "he who controls elections gets elected".on top of that. he is the front runner, he is the most qualified. he has the support, means and the power to stay the head of jubaland for decades. he had lost more 1000.00 to liberate kista.  he made kista most developed and peaceful city in south the last eight years. I know all that the does not matter to you cuz your hate towards madobe clan. but there is nothing that u can do about it.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

When are the selections for kismayo. 

[Che -Guevara]

5 hours ago, Dhoodaan said:

 "he who controls elections gets elected".on top of that. he is the front runner, he is the most qualified. he has the support, means and the power to stay the head of jubaland for decades. he had lost more 1000.00 to liberate kista.  he made kista most developed and peaceful city in south the last eight years. I know all that the does not matter to you cuz your hate towards madobe clan. but there is nothing that u can do about it.

First of all, I wouldn't advise anyone to stay for decades. That's how we plunged into this never-ending nightmare. Secondly, why I would hate his clan considering they have done nothing to me or my family or even my clan? Thirdly Madoobe came with Kenyans. Fourthly, like another Somali leader, Madoobe himself has done nothing to improve the average people's lives. Tell me any development projects he initiated and finished or his administration initiated and completed. Mind you investment by diaspora, NGOs and Arabs who want to divide Somali don't count.