Mustafe Cagjar, Suldaan Duulane in the Amhara State

[Suldaanka]

 

[Suldaanka]

Here is Faysal Rooble's take on what is being said in the video. 

Also, you can fastfoward to 1:20m for Somali speakers

 

[Suldaanka]

A window into Amhara thinking and political outlook.

The second instalment of translations of the Bahr-dar gathering.

 

 

[Che -Guevara]

He's losing the plot. Hopefully, ONLF has more sense.

[Suldaanka]

It could actually pay off big for Abtigiis. He is probably have read the writing on the wall and it is inevitable that the Amhara will assume power. They are determined to get back on top. 

The only power that can stop them are the Tigray and they seem to be having internal issues as well as image problem.

For the Amhara, the Oromo is a piece of cake. They will be able to divide them very easily along culture as well as religious lines. The Oromo in and around Addis Abeba are half-Amhara anyways, by culture and by religion. 

 

[Suldaanka]

2 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

He's losing the plot. Hopefully, ONLF has more sense.

The ONLF have no chance. 

[Che -Guevara]

That's a serious miscalculation. The only way Amhara will assume power has to be through sheer force and brutality. They would to have destroy Ethiopia first before it comes under their control.

And they are being ethnically cleansed from regions where they form the minority. As we speak, the Sidama are targeting Amhara, burning their churches and looting their businesses. 

Addis will be their stand.

[Suldaanka]

The Amhara understands the Oromos better than anyone. They had been ruling these people for millennia. Almost 40% of Oromo are half-Amhara and identify more with Amhara than their Oromo cousins. 

Given their performance in 2005 elections despite the pressures and might of the Ethiopian gov't under Meles, it will look as if the upcoming elections in 2020 (if it takes place) is for Amhara's chance to raise. 

The Tigre by all means are slowly moves out of the picture frame and becoming less and less relevant in the power struggles in Addis Abeba.  

I am predicting a return of Amhara rule in the next elections. 

[gooni]

Sida turjumaanku u khalday, bay anagana walaalaheen somali galbeed noo khaldaan.

Marna waa gobonimo doon soomaali ah marna waa itoobiyaan dhalad ah.

[Dahireeto]

Suldaanka has a point. Oromos are useless. 

[Old_Observer]

The new Amxara president is already at work how to reconcile with Tigray. He cannot have peace in his Kilil without making peace with Agew, which the Amxara accuse are Tigray 2. The Agew are almost half of Amxara kilil population. The statistics are wrong because Agew were taken out of the list in last 2 census.

Most of Amxara kilil is governed with warlords right now.

The Amxara influence on Oromia is almost half, but Amxara influence on Tigray is next to zero.

Tigray influence on Amhara is more than half and Tigray influence in Oromia is still big, since the opposition are more influencial in Oromia than Abiy and the opposition are closer to Tigray on federalsim than to Amxara.

[Holac]

Cagjar aka Abtigiis is big a disappointment. 

[galbeedi]

He either ignorant of history or he is up to some sinister moves. Either way Mr. Cagjar will not last as things heat up. The Tigray got Debresion, the Amhara leader is always at the center power and Oromo got the power. The Somali Zone needs a tough guy to match these giants. We need someone to match the false Amhara hubris and take his stand. We need someone to say that either we will have our autonomy or Ethiopia will be finished just like Yugoslavia.

During  Cabdi Illey reign  the regional television prodcusted exclusively Somali programing with few Ethiopian stories. Now you got many ours of Amhara programing thanks to Cagjar.

Anyway, the secretory general of the ONLF Mr. Maadeey was in our town last weekend. One of the biggest takeaway of that conference was the tone of the speaker. By far , he spoke nothing but unity, brotherhood and borderless Soomaalinimo. . We might disagree with ONLF in personal or tribal politics , but they had showed to be serious leaders with well defined mission of the future of the Somali region.

Some tough questions were raised by the audience. He was asked point blank: When are you going to Somalize ONLF?, " Goorma ayaa la Soomaaliyeynayaa ONLF oo reerka magaciisa iyo waxan daba socda la bedelayaa?

He did not beat the bush or tried to run away from the name. He said , " We are not  hypocrites like many Somalis who carry the "S" name and then serve their tribe, but this is a decades old brand name , and we are not willing to run away from it at the last minute and start from zero like others", he continued, " but we know the region will be either called Somali Galbeed or Somali state which ever Somalis agree".

Some even tried to trap him and asked about Cagjar saying the OG are 30% of the population. He rejected any numbers and said that he was not interested about numbers or the percentage of tribes and the land belongs to all Somalis.

By far he was the most qualified Somali politician who was well versed of the issues he was addressing. They even asked him about the clashes and issues that exist between the Farmaajo government and ONLF. He said, " I know you guys probably referring to Qalbi-Dhagax issues, but this is our government and we are willing to cooperate and succeed ( Dawladeeni weeye waxaanan rajaynaynaa nabad iyo horumar Soomaliya gaadha)

In my impression these guys are ready for the future Ethiopian challenge.

 

[Old_Observer]

Cagjar is too focused on himself and his future in Ethiopian politics.

He should focus on the Afar, Oromo and South which have direct impact on the Somali and interaction with the Somali people good or bad.

The Amxara are too far away geographically, too different from the Somali in interest, culture, language..etc. The closer he gets with the Amxara who are anti-federalists he divides the Somali and weakens.

Generally is good idea to have peace and friendship with everyone possible, but the Somali is not an insider in Ethiopia. No matter the size of the population or location, the Somali is not best positioned to mix it up between Amxara and Oromo.

Agjar is also acting against Illey and Illey shadow, but in doing so weakening and destroying things that Illey did that were good for the Somali.

As galbeedi mentioned even the broadcast is now getting diluted with programming that has nothing to do and no benefit to the Somali.

 

[Haatu]

19 hours ago, Old_Observer said:

Generally is good idea to have peace and friendship with everyone possible, but the Somali is not an insider in Ethiopia. No matter the size of the population or location, the Somali is not best positioned to mix it up between Amxara and Oromo.

Agjar is also acting against Illey and Illey shadow, but in doing so weakening and destroying things that Illey did that were good for the Somali.

As galbeedi mentioned even the broadcast is now getting diluted with programming that has nothing to do and no benefit to the Somali.

 

Very good points. Somalis were and will always be outsiders when it comes to Ethiopian centres of power. So we should therefore focus on how we can leave as soon as possible. This is where Abtigiis failed. Geed uusan dhakadiisa gaari karin ayuu isku dayay in uu fuula. Wuu is dulleeyay.