Ethiopia in very critical stage Governing Party falls apart

[Old_Observer]

Two of the 4 parties that form EPRDF have declared they cannot work together.

TPLF accused ADP of encouraging Amxara Chauvinists

ADP accused TPLF of being enemy of Amxara

 

It does not change the numbers in Parliament, but this will affect the Army.

 

As it is the Army had made statements last week that its being affected in its cohesiveness

Wanted to take Amxara activists to court.

 

 

 

[Old_Observer]

Each part have 45 memebers in CC

Each party has 9 members in Executive committee

The South Party has been in meeting now more than 5 days. The plan was at most 3 days.

The Amxara statement comes only from Executive committee not CC of Amxara party. The CC will be impossible to unite on such strong statement.

 

ODP is not in difficulty, but ODP has bigger problem. ODP does not have majority support in Oromia.

 

Condisering the Sidama question and others in north and south...Ethiopia is in emergency situation.

[Old_Observer]

Kililka:

Should visit all areas

Meet elders and politicians

Make them aware of the situation

Ensure the security, police, Liyu have cohesiveness and give information rather than they get it from others.

Have good understanding with ONLF and others on basic issues

Don't get too deep with any party or side with EPRDF.

[Che -Guevara]

This reminds of the end of the Soviet where Gorbachev and communist party were undermined by the new elected regional parliaments. The Baltic States were first to undermine him and he was eventually challenged openly by the president of the Russian  Federation, Boris Yeltsin. The Soviet ceased to exist that day!

The infighting is a not good news. Sidama and Wolkait could be his Baltic States and Tigray is his Russian Federation followed by Afars and Somalis.

[Old_Observer]

3 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

This reminds of the end of the Soviet where Gorbachev and communist party were undermined by the new elected regional parliaments. The Baltic States were first to undermine him and he was eventually challenged openly by the president of the Russian  Federation, Boris Yeltsin. The Soviet ceased to exist that day!

The infighting is a not good news. Sidama and Wolkait could be his Baltic States and Tigray is his Russian Federation followed by Afars and Somalis.

Looks like it.

Abiy speech in parliament last week was humiliating to Somali. What he said threatening to Sidama was:If you don'y obey, I will do to you South what I did in Somali kilil.

Crisis group told him, that he cannot do in South what he did in Somali Kilil. The Sidama are united from 3 political parties to the farmer. The Somali were divided and many wanted vengeance on Illey first.

 

But Generally the Soviet and even Yugoslavia have a lot of similarity to Ethiopia.

 

[galbeedi]

 

 The mischievous Tigray want to get out , but first they want to destroy the whole thing and exit by default.Yet, at the moment , they present themselves as the good guys who stand for the constitution and ethnic federalism. They are demanding that the Amhara to be dealt with heavy blow. The Amhara had went crazy. The Ethiopia based on Amhara culture and language is no more  and they can't accept that.

Three or four more ethnic Kilil could be  formed to weaken both Oromia and Amhara regions. Sidama, Agew, Welkat and even Gurage want their own Kilil.

I bet that those in Jigjiga probably do not even have plan B. This Cagjar guy must prepare the people for the eventual collapse of the new Yugoslavia of Africa.

The Amhara diaspora is agitating and the western nations especially America isn't doing anything to slow them down. Democracy in Ethiopia could be a threat for some foreign nations. We all pray for this Abiy guy to succeed and keep the lid of this boiling pot.

[galbeedi]

The Tigray elite had already buried the Ethiopia of nationalities and nations they formed in 1991. THey are advocating what the cal " Federation of Nation states" . Similar to the EU .

They say, "Ethiopia as a country has passed the tipping point towards becoming federation of nation states and there is no possibility of returning to a unified homogenous nation"

Other than Addis and few other mixed towns, almost everyone has his own nation. Keeping the union by force is no longer an option. Even the TPLF had warned Abiy not to use force against the Sidamo.

2 hours ago, Old_Observer said:

The Somali were divided and many wanted vengeance on Illey first.

If Illey had moderated his abuse, the people would have followed him. You can't lead your own prisoners and victims to fight for your survival. They can't trust you. So, this new Guy Mustafe must unite the Somalis for any eventuality.

[Old_Observer]

20 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

 

I bet that those in Jigjiga probably do not even have plan B. This Cagjar guy must prepare the people for the eventual collapse of the new Yugoslavia of Africa.

 

I hope his actions are not as his talk. What he talks is scary. Some of his talk makes you question that he forgot he is Somali and in Ethiopia.

galbeedi,

Its international or global phenomenon now to be nationalist. Maybe there will be major war who knows.

From what I heard, Cagjar will be removed if the Ethiopian situation gets worst. He does not have the personality or experience to lead almost 7 million people to safety.

He is also not cognizant what it means to the Somali if there is change of power in Oromia itself. Abiy is no more the favorite anywhere in Ethiopia. That maybe a plus.

Plan B is the most important question. If others know that you have no plan B, then you become victim of circumstances.

 

Your Amxara friends rely too much on foreigners. On the other hand its because of foreigners they won in 19th century.

[Old_Observer]

13 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

 

If Illey had moderated his abuse, the people would have followed him. You can't lead your own prisoners and victims to fight for your survival. They can't trust you. So, this new Guy Mustafe must unite the Somalis for any eventuality.

Illey was going to leave, but nobody wanted him to leave orderly. Nobody, mainly Oromo and Amxara wanted Illey to leave the structure intact or even better.

The only accusation that keeps repeating in Ethiopia is: Illey was separatist and we saved the country from fracturing.

That is what Abiy stated in parliament.

.

[galbeedi]

I heard Farah Macalin explain how Somalis achieved their political ans economic success in Kenya. It is totally different. Most of all , despite our disagreements and the sea issue, Kenya is an stable democracy. If Cgjar is comparing the Kenyan Somali experience in the Somali region , he is mistaken.  Ethiopia is the unfinished project of the 19th century colonial project.

He should demand the reform of the party and make sure decisions are made in Jigjiga.

1 hour ago, Old_Observer said:

From what I heard, Cagjar will be removed if the Ethiopian situation gets worst.

Abiy can't remove the TPLF man in Makale. Cagjar must not allow regime change in Jigjiga from Addis. This can only be done by reforming the party. Ahmed Shide is no longer serving the kilil.

[galbeedi]

8 hours ago, Old_Observer said:

Each part have 45 memebers in CC

Each party has 9 members in Executive committee

OO,

why not make the EPRDF CC larger by adding Somalis, Afar and others?. THis old system is no longer working for many.

[Old_Observer]

51 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

OO,

why not make the EPRDF CC larger by adding Somalis, Afar and others?. THis old system is no longer working for many.

Good idea, but there was a big problem.

Tigray wanted your idea, but all opposed it because it was almost guaranteed the Afar and Somali will side with Tigray on most issues. Now the Oromo still do not want this. They have not consolidated in Oromia let alone in other areas.

They prefer others to join as individuals since the Oromo party has 3 million members. African style.

Individually would be worst for Somali, since the unity is not as strong as others. Only Oromo is less united than Somali.

If its individual membership in Ethiopian parties, it may bring death of autonomy. There is no peer pressure. Ethiopians will buy or pressure half of MPs from Kililka.

[maakhiri1]

Popcorn time

[Che -Guevara]

Escalation 

 

[Old_Observer]

21 hours ago, Apophis said:

I don’t know if he grew up in Kenya but he has certainly spent a significant amount of time there.

I know he was working from Nairobi and I think his experiences there have greatly shaped his centralist attitude.

Does he wish to see Ethiopia become like Kenya? I think so, I also think he sees himself as a pragmatist like Aden Bare Duale. 

Perhaps becoming a right hand man to a strong ruler.

Of course this is all an error, in my opinion, as Ethiopia is quite different, in every sense, to Kenya.

Although I do believe the whole of East Africa can learn a great deal from Kenya, in this case I think Cagjar is mistaken if he thinks he can copy paste the Kenyan model to Ethiopia.

The best thing for Ethiopia is disintegration, peacefully.

Such a thing will rejuvenate the horn.

The problem of East African politicians is that they forget that the Somali nomad is very different to other nomads. The Somali nomad has always had some kind of laws and organization. Has reached level of Sultanates, Kingdoms and even empires.

Other nomads went straight to European system from very very primitive life. They did not have much habits good or bad. The Somali had a lot of habits good or bad and some of them conflicted with European systems.

100 years at war produces its own culture.

This is what politicians or apprentice like @Abtigis miss. Kililka is even different from any other Somali enclave. It has every clan or sub-clan of Somali that ever walked on earth. Only American Somali, Candian Somali...clans are missing which are on their way. Kililka has already British Somali.