Somalia is rising .

[galbeedi]

 

Unlike Farmaajo and Khayre, I am  from  the school  of thought  that explains the Somali issue in clear simple terms that says, " Somalia collapsed, every tribe made their own rules and the country exists only in name". So, regardless of their names , I am going to reach the borders and bring the country back. In your tribal enclaves, you can elect your  own warlords, tribal chuvanists, thieves and criminals,and so called Mujaahids,  but you will not stop me reaching and controlling  the air , sea and land crossings. I am marching just like general Sherman marched to the coast, and if you are on my way, May God help you . The usual suspects would say, where would this hallucinating fellow will get his army to do the job?

 

I always believed that freedom, independence and sovereignty could only be gained through real sacrifices. Which means every single one us of paying a real price. 

 

If you go to Somlia Online archives, You could find an article I wrote  in 2018 about the denise of the TPLF . I did made some correlation between the exit of the TPLF from Ethiopian power and the future of the Somali regional governments. I said , " Since the mother of the Somali regional government, the TPLF,  died, no one will be helping the orphans the Tigray left behind. I even bragged about coming home and slaying these orphans including the mother of the regional government --Puntalnd.  

 

I said: Dhagdheer Dhimatoo Dhulkii waa nabad.

 

Well, that is me.  Anyway,  killing all the orphans might not be a good idea after all, some might survive, especially --Puntalnd.  Now this duo , Farmaajo and Khayre  have their own plans which is probably more sophisticated than most of us. They have taken over of  the regional governments without army or even firing one bullet. Since these regional leaders can't run to Mama Ethiopia  to save themselves , some had tried to find and  run to another new surrogate mother in Nairobi with no success. 

 

Xaaf is finished.

 

The dysfunctional Galmudug , led by the octogenarian Xaaf had reached the end of the line. He was already expelled from Cadaado, the natural and the most peaceful and vibrant city in Galmudug. He is the guest of honor of the evil group called Ehlu Sunna Wal Jamcaac ( I call them Ehlu Shaytaan). The federal minister of the interior has landed in Dhuusamareeb overriding the objection of Xaaf. The latest news is that the election to replace Xaaf  and elect a new leader will be held in July in Cadaado. The former chief of Somali armed forces general C/weli Jamac Gorod will be the man expected to win. He is sponsored by the government. Yet, the anarchist Ehlu Sunna is still lurking in the wings. While no one is glad about using federal resources for bribes or interference of the regional governments, at least it is better than using guns and soldiers to get the desired outcome.

 

Xaaf is gone Madoobe to follow.

 

The latest news in Jubbaland affair is that the election will be held under the guidance of Amisom forces , especially the Ethiopian contingent in KIsmaayo. It will be held at the hanger in the Kismaayo airport. I do not know how the airport would accommodate a large number of delegates , but that is the latest news from Mogadishu. The current federal minister of aviation Mohamed Abdilahi Oomar from Jubbaland will be the government candidate to replace Madoobe. Analysts believe Oomar will win a landslide victory.

 

Hirshabeele out of control.

 

Mr, Waare, the current president of Hirshabelle is a lame duck leader who spends most of his days in Mogadishu. When the Garoowe regional conference was held he couldn't choose any side. In fact, he told the Puntalnd leaders that the only reason has  has good terms with the federal government is that his administration  was getting a half million dollars a month of direct payments from the federal government to his administration. Compared to others , he is probably the weakest among the regional leaders. If he can't even control the insecurity  issue in his native Hiiraan --who would prefer their own regions than share with Jowhar--he will be history soon. Cabdulaahi Deni of Punralnd should tread carefully and not ally himself with these sinking ships in Galmudug, Jubba and Hir-Shabelle or else. I know he is  broke and he is trying to bring some badly needed investment to Puntalnd,  but he should be careful with whom he  breaks bread with. Last time time when Deni  visited Addis, he was told  to register his protest against the government as we wishes but  not aggravate issues. Since Deni is Reer Bari,  who plays them game quitely and diplomatically , he will probably ditch the sinking leaders and mind his own shop. 

 

Actually, a high ranking puntland official in town told me that both Khayre and Farmaajo do not believe the federal thing at all . He said when they came to Garoowe in May with orders of the international community, they never agreed on anything.  He said both Xaaf and Madoobe said, " how can we believe anything these two guys say, after all, they are trying to replace us."  When I asked him about the agenda of the conference, he said , " there were  none, It took four days to figure out the agenda, and at the end nothing was agreed", he continued, " When you ask them something to either accept or reject, they will say , we are thinking about it and get back to you"(  Waar dad Burco Jooga oo Farmaajo ii geeya leh ayuu arkay, markaa Federaalka waxa uu arkaa Isbaaro dhexda loo dhigtay). Here you go guys.

 

Certainly these two  have  cornered the  regional leaders. In Puntalnd election, their guy had failed,, but they tried thgeir luck.   I asked him about the rumored quarrel between Khayre and Farmaajo, and  he said, " There might be some small issues, but these two guys are a team who are sending wrong signals to the media.

 

Well, if this gentleman is correct, you have got two guys who do not believe the so called federal thing at all,  yet  are not saying anything against the formula publicly. They can gage and feel that the public is yearning for leadership and national government , and most are willing to forfeit the federal thing if they are serious about bringing the national government.

finally I asked him about  the end game of Farmaajo and Khayre . Since the security issues are still pending and unresolved why spend so much energy on these battles with the regional governments?. He said, " They are gumbelling everything on the regional government and hoping to get elected a second term and finish these other issues later, yet, what they do not understand is that the members of the future parliament will be elected by the regions and no one can predict how they will be going to vote" , he continued, " If they fail to get elected while neglecting all this major issues and dismantling the federal system, it will be a huge issue

 

Kenya on the ropes.

 

The scramble for Somalia oil is in high gear. The former  holders of Somalia exploration and extraction  contacts singed in nineteen eighties had just showed up now after the Somali parliament passed the petroleum rules. ExxonMobil and Shell just came to Somalia to reclaim their old contract and met the government ministers. They want to have a piece of the action in the Indian Ocean.

 

The Kenyan foreign minister just came back from Djibouti apparently to complain about the Somali maritime dispute with Omar Ghelleh.  According to Djibouti insiders Ghelleh had told the Kenyan minister that both the sea and land borders separating most countries in Africa are colonial boundaries and can't be changed by the African countries. He also told them that there never was any dispute with Somalia with successive governments for the last fifty years, why now?. In other words , the Kenyans were taught a lesson about these disputes. In fact, if they want to disregard the colonial boundaries of 1960 then everything should be on the table including the occupied territory of NFD.

 

Socdaalkaygu waa meel

Sahaydaydu waa dacar

Sohdintaydu waa caan

 

Nin isiaray ma nabad gelo 

Nin I sugayna maba Jiro

Libitaa weli ma siidayn

 

Gardarada Ma saacido 

Nin xaqlina Cidi lama simo

Somnali baan ahay.

 

THe Kenyans are becoming amateurs in managing  complicated world affaires. As we speak they are suing even their old patron U.K at the security council. So far Somalia hasn't retaliated in any shape or form. Now they are begging Omar Ghelleh to bail them out , but that is impossible.  Neither Abiy of  Ethiopia  nor  Eritrea could help them in these diplomatic tussle. Soon after the election of Jubbaland the Qat ban might follow. Lately the Kenyans were trying to diversify and find  new markets for their Qat . The problem is that other than Somalis or Yemenis to some extent, there are no other markets for these drugs.  This drug is specifically cultivated  for Somalia and Somalis only. They could bring some to Puntalnd and Somaliland by air,  but  Somaliland can't risk undermining the Ethiopian Qat imports  and other products from the Oromia region. 

 

Somalia 2 Kenya 0.

 

Finally , we can all say that Somalia got a government that could compete at the world stage. Isn't this a victory  we can all celebrate after almost 30 years? I think so. .

 

 

[Che -Guevara]

Xaaf is done indeed and no one is coming to Kenya's aid. They don't seem to understand Farmaajo and Kheyr cannot politically risk  the wrath of the public. They will have no chance  coming back should they sit with Kenya.

In regards to the federal issue, Farmaajo needs to tread carefully. 

[galbeedi]

Che,

The federal thing will stay but, probably in different form.

You have seen the Hiiraan people who do not want to be lumped together with a town , jowhar , just 90km from MOgadishu.

Delegation of power means people managing their affaires locally. If Gedo, Awdal, Sool and Hiiraan want to be their own regions, no one has the right to deny them.

[Che -Guevara]

I think before we got into anything, they should finish the constitution and hold GENUINE reconciliation process for all Somalis.

If it's hard to stear Somalis if the mistrust continues and qabiil lords exploit that mistrust.

[Tillamook]

8 hours ago, Apophis said:

I wish I had more time to read your fantasies Galbedi. 

I know every Somali thinks he should be the ruler but you are on another planet with your delusions.

 

lets just hope someone has taken a pity and pays you to write these stuff.

Saaxiib, Apophis,  even though it is a moot point to suggest to you to at least have the decency to proffer a reasonable rebuttal to the wishful thinking of our colleague in here; knowing full well, what an inconsequential ignoramus you happen to be on SOL, but the very least you could do is to try.

When will you outgrow the few sentence snide remarks that you post in here  that are pointless and actually write up something that has substance? 

Galbeedi in here has made some assertions in here...

He believes Somalia is “rising”.

He gives Farmaajo and his pm the credit.

He believes that that duo have done well to undermine federalism and to bring the regional governments under their heal without resorting to violence.

He gave examples of Waare and LaftaGareen as defeated hapless men who are owned by Villa Somalia.

He shared with us how tactfully Xaaf  is being actively unseated in galMudug as we speak.

He claims Axmad Madoobe is next.

And finally he suggested Puntland should remain idle and twiddle its thumbs while federalism is undermined in Somalia because in his words, “Puntland is broke! and Burco has proclaimed “Farmaajo ii geeya”  

Now, Apophis, surely of all these things Galbeedi has shared; surely,  there are a one or two that are rebuttable with facts and a counter narrative of your own. Heck, he even badmouthed your beloved thieving Kikuyus. Tsk, tsk, tsk...

C’mon dude, put aside the caanoboore for a second and write up a reply to Galbeedi that will show him and us how at the end of the day, Farmaajo will come up short and why.

Heck man, at the very minimum let him know why you believe your Axmad Madoobe will still be around in Jubaland this time next year. You can even make the argument why federalism is the only viable political solution at the moment to move Somalia out of the doldrums it finds itself in and that no matter all the jostling by individual politicians for power at the national or regional federal levels, this at least is a foregone conclusion.

You have many ways of picking apart Galbeedi’s incorrect assertions in here. Go ahead, defend Axmad Madoobe( hopefully with a reasoned argument and logic).

Go ahead defend Jubaland from the “desert dwelling”, land grabbing Kacaan revisionist who currently resides in Villa Somalia and this Galbeedi upstart who just won’t shut his mouth.

Go ahead, we await your two year sentence response to Galbeedi with curious anticipation... or me, if you are so inclined. 

 

 

[Old_Observer]

14 hours ago, galbeedi said:

 

 

The Kenyan foreign minister just came back from Djibouti apparently to complain about the Somali maritime dispute with Omar Ghelleh.  According to Djibouti insiders Ghelleh had told the Kenyan minister that both the sea and land borders separating most countries in Africa are colonial boundaries and can't be changed by the African countries. He also told them that there never was any dispute with Somalia with successive governments for the last fifty years, why now?. In other words , the Kenyans were taught a lesson about these disputes. In fact, if they want to disregard the colonial boundaries of 1960 then everything should be on the table including the occupied territory of NFD.

 

 

 

Hate him or love him, Ghelleh is right now the best Somali leader of all the enclaves.

I am 100% certain Farmaajo would never speak a word to challenge Abiy or Afwerki when they are being unfair about any enclave and most importantly Djibouti.

The man has self respect, as much as possible. When he cannot act with self respect he will bid his time and stay low, but never make himself stupid and imbecile.

 

[FBISOMALIA]

Xamar (Centralize) Vs PL (Federalize) ,

Mogadishu clan were to quite with Cheese guy security failure for 2 years now we know why. Their plan To bring  kacaan system back to the country again. I have to admit they became to mature now, but PL will not let those continue. Xaaf only hope is PL to help him . What he offer will decide If PL to part of Galmudug dilemma or not .      

[Old_Observer]

galbeedi,

Your wish about Jubaland is non starter, unless you do not care if the whole thing falls apart and there is opportune time for those in Mugadishu to make a coup and take over, which Puntland may make exception and allow them.

Jubaland is a lot defferent than GalMudug or SWS. Both are encircled no outside access, no outside support.

Jubaland has access and support to NFD

Access and support to Kililka (Abtigis will be neutral at best if he is in service of Abiy/Afwerki)

Access to the sea

Puntlanders in Jubaland also will align with Madoobe when the chips are down and Puntland will tell them to do so.

Even Shabab may come into the picture.

 

Fighting federalism may sound good for unitarians, sloganists, but is waste of time for the long suffering Somali.

You live in a country that struggled 100 years with federalism and now seems to have perfected it.

UK very soon will go federal, otherwise split up.

Puntland has a reason for not spending time in conflict with Somaliland. That is a perfect reason. No Federalism and Puntland and Somaliland will be in total peace. Farmaajo canot jump over Puntland to organize some sub clans between Puntland and Somaliland.

 

Its simply a waste of time and resources, I hope not human life.

 

[FBISOMALIA]

8 minutes ago, Old_Observer said:

galbeedi,

Your wish about Jubaland is non starter, unless you do not care if the whole thing falls apart and there is opportune time for those in Mugadishu to make a coup and take over, which Puntland may make exception and allow them.

Jubaland is a lot defferent than GalMudug or SWS. Both are encircled no outside access, no outside support.

Jubaland has access and support to NFD

Access and support to Kililka (Abtigis will be neutral at best if he is in service of Abiy/Afwerki)

Access to the sea

Puntlanders in Jubaland also will align with Madoobe when the chips are down and Puntland will tell them to do so.

Even Shabab may come into the picture.

 

Fighting federalism may sound good for unitarians, sloganists, but is waste of time for the long suffering Somali.

You live in a country that struggled 100 years with federalism and now seems to have perfected it.

UK very soon will go federal, otherwise split up.

Puntland has a reason for not spending time in conflict with Somaliland. That is a perfect reason. No Federalism and Puntland and Somaliland will be in total peace. Farmaajo canot jump over Puntland to organize some sub clans between Puntland and Somaliland.

 

Its simply a waste of time and resources, I hope not human life.

 

If you life on heaven for 30 years, Are you ready to throw it away ?

Xamar is like Gold city who own it he control everything. PL change all that. Now they want to bring the country back to 1991 by one city controlling everything. PL came to xamar to establish Federalism, on that we lose soldiers , money , cities like Lasscound to bring xamar back and create Federalism. And now they want to bring xamar back to 1991 civil war . PL will not allow this to happen . 

[galbeedi]

I think the country is different today, and i do believe  federalism will stay.

We have to wait and see how the constitution is implemented and the regions are realigned.

 

[Peace Action]

3 hours ago, galbeedi said:

I think the country is different today, and i do believe  federalism will stay.

We have to wait and see how the constitution is implemented and the regions are realigned.

 

Galbeedi this makes more sense. Farmaajo and Khayre have demonstrated better handling of corruption but they failed so far their main mission which is to defeat Al-shabaab and remove foreign troops. With regional autonomy, their job is made easier to concentrate on Mogadishu security but if their agenda as you say is to dismantle the federal system, then they will utterly fail. They won't be able to dismantle the federal system because Somalis don't trust central government of one city rule Mogadishu again.

[gooni]

Federaalku wuxuu noqday erayga ugu maqalka badan dhagaha soomaalida waxaana mar walba la socda erayga kale ee khilaafka.

Aragtidayda kama shaqayn karo soomaaliya waxaana sababta ugu wayn ka dhigi lahaa is aaminaad la'aanta

Dastuurka qabyadaa asagana ceeriinkaa lagu cunay, qodobka 54aad iyo kan 55aad labaduba waa sax.

Puntland waa asaasaha federaalka sida ay sheegaan kumana kalsoona dadka u matala sharuucda federaalka ee muqdisha jooga.

Wafdigii dibadda aada, dad puntland ka socda ha lagu dhex daro si ay ula socdaan ajandaha socdaalka.

Batroolka lama saxiixi karo ayadoon gudi isku dhafa la helin

Macaawinada waa in lagusoo qoraa magaca puntland intaysan Istanbul kasoo bixin

Waxaas iyo ka badan waa inay u heshaa xulufo la dagaalanta dawladda dhexe afkaarteeduna u shaqayso.

Xaaf waa tagey sida muuqata waxaa kaliya oo uu raadinayaa meel uu ku naf baxo. 

Puntland waxaa uga muhiimsan  badbaadinta xaaf, inay hesho xulufo cusub oo hawshii halkii kasii wada.

Afķa hadii ilkuhu ka dhamaadaan, hal iligoo ka taagan waa foolxumo, madoobe waa ogyahay meesha wax marayaan, killin 5aad iyo kukuyo waxaa ka xoog badan rabitaanka shacabka.

Khilaaf iyo dhib hadii la waayo xal la arki maayo.

Miro kastoo la abuuro dhib lagu tabco iyo sabur dheer baa lagu cunaa, federaalka maray noqotaba waa lasoo aasi insha allah.

 

[Old_Observer]

Fighting against Federalism is futile and waste of valuable time and resources.

Next year if there is economic downturn in the west and east, all that IC money will disappear and will be back to square one for Somalia.

All that Arab money and politics can disappear if the Iran-West crisis goes one degree up.

What is wrong in building Somalia region by region?

Why waste time and resource when you clearly know that the society needs time to heal its wounds and rebuild from ground up?

Why talk and waste valuable time and money on pie in the sky big republic when the whole world is going local?

[Tallaabo]

22 hours ago, galbeedi said:

I think the country is different today, and i do believe  federalism will stay.

We have to wait and see how the constitution is implemented and the regions are realigned.

 

Clan federalism will probably never work. The only political system which will sure work and which I will have no problems supporting is an 18 federal states with minimal interferences from an almost powerless central government. 

[Duufaan]

The only successful path is dismantling anarchism. The key to success lies security in south Somalia. Somalia problem is economics, not politics. Unless you secure the farmland in the south the problem will remain. Galmudug problem is not solvable at moment. Most people already left to the south and what is left is heavily armed gangs. Each group wants to be the center. The rest of the people in the reaming districts have no choice. It is really hard to see a solution for Galmudug problem. It is very much connected to moqdisho problems. The old culture of the 90's is very much alive in Galmudug. They must find a way either to remove army gangs or reconcile them permanently.  Sooner Farmaajo/khayre money dried out, the problem will reappear again even if khayre succeed this time.

 

This is probably the bigger goal of Farmaajo//khayre dismantling the maamulgobleed leaders and their never-ending meetings to challenge moqdisho government and becoming the only legal and functioning authority representing the Somali nation internationally. But they need a lot of cash flow which they do not have. They should focus on the security issue in south Somalia, if they want to win the trust of somali people and the international community. Too much gamble of chasing of warlords Xaaf and Madoobe could backfire them.