Attempted coup d'etat against leadership of the Amhara regional state: Abiy's Comments

[Tillamook]

2 hours ago, galbeedi said:

This general with Shia style loyal special forces was threat to both Oromo and TPLF. 

Whether this was a real coup that was aborted or Amhara radicals eliminating their enemies, it's impact will affect Ethiopia deeply.

Abiy Ahmed might have got an Erdogan style God sent opportunity to crush his enemies once for all.The TPLF doesn't mind giving him a helping to sideline the Amhara. 

Abiy finds himself in a Mexican stand-off or stalemate.

He does not have the wherewithal to outright crush Amhara ambitions because that would be a costly undertaking for the Oromo which would give the Tigray the upper hand.

The man is truly in a bind. The only thing that helped his Oromo overthrow of Tigray was his friendship with Eritrea( Tigray enemy) and to some extent the Somalis who suffered under Tigray/Illey  abuse.

Abiy might have Addis and a large Oromo base, but they do not have the power to subjugate all of Ethiopia.

The Tigray are armed to the teeth which makes anyone who wants to mess with them think twice.

And the Amhara have a considerable population, and the pride and a willingness to never allow their historical Oromo slaves to lord over them. 

Now what are Somalis to do in such a standoff where it is suicidal for Amhara, Tigray and Oromo to give an inch to one another? 

Somalis in SomaliGalbeed should learn to play these groups against one another, just as they’ve done to us and them all these years, playing one Somali tribe against another.  In short, continue to buy time for Somalia proper who is still dealing with its own issues in Mogadishu.

[Suldaanka]

5 minutes ago, Tillamook said:

The Tigray are armed to the teeth which makes anyone who wants to mess with them think twice.

That is true. The TPLF may have been sidelined politically, but they control somewhat 60% of the economy as well as amassed the largest armoury in the country. They prepared themselves for an eventuality like this. 

Here is a recent interview with former Central Committee member of the TPLF

 

"Demeke and his mercenary team has nothing to do regarding the choice of Tigrai people whether they want become an independent country or they want to stay as part of Ethiopia. There has never been and there will never be any power in Ethiopia that would affect the choice of Tigrai and Tigraians in any shape or form. Ethiopia does not have the will or the means to stop Tigrai from implementing what its people want. The destiny of Tigrai will always be determined only by the people of Tigrai."

Source: 

The destiny of Tigrai will be determined only by the people of Tigrai

WWW.TIGRAIONLINE.COM

---

Tigrai people have been governing themselves for three and half thousand years under organized and structured government with written laws and rules

 

[Suldaanka]

The wildcard here is the Amhara, the radicals among them are hell bent on assuming what they say 'rightful' leadership role of Ethiopia come 2020 elections. 

In my opinion, the Oromos do not have the political sophistication to remain in power for too long. Abiye Ahmed came to power on the back of the Amhara bandwagon. The Amhara were the brains behind the civil unrest which engulfed the country from 2015 on wards.

[Che -Guevara]

Tillamook,

The Tigray are not only well armed but they are well-trained and organized. 

Suldaanka,

At this stage, it does not matter who is what when it comes to Amharas and Oromos, neither of them can force unity. The politics in the country has been highly racialized and militias and weapons are galore. One group would have to obliterate all others if they want to assume power without the consent of others.

[Holac]

4 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

Truly the Amharas are being radicalized. Look at the ending of the video. This is like Muqtada Alsadar militia sort of group. Here in Washington area, the Amhara diaspora is very strong. They probably send money back home to radicalize these young boys. I see very troubling times ahead for Ethiopia. 

 

 

[Suldaanka]

32 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

Tillamook,

The Tigray are not only well armed but they are well-trained and organized. 

Suldaanka,

At this stage, it does not matter who is what when it comes to Amharas and Oromos, neither of them can force unity. The politics in the country has been highly racialized and militias and weapons are galore. One group would have to obliterate all others if they want to assume power without the consent of others.

There is actually very little the Oromos have in common with the Amhara other than the fact that they both hated the 27 years of TPLF hegemony. 

But at the end of the day, Oromos understand the imperialism attitude of the Amhara and they do not like it. If the Amhara overplay the game, it will be no brainer that Oromos may in fact seek alliances with the TPLF.

The only power that can stop the Amhara is the TPLF.  

 

[Duufaan]

Ethiopians do not use to have freedom and this experience is too much for them. It is just too much for the Amhara to accept the new norm. They are looking back The past glory. They will be used to and Abiya gets opportunities here to win back the Oromo support he lost. For the worst senoria the west may replace Abiya somebody like SiSi in Egypty.  They will not allow Ethiopia disintegrate.

[FBISOMALIA]

21 minutes ago, Duufaan said:

Ethiopians do not use to have freedom and this experience is too much for them. It is just too much for the Amhara to accept the new norm. They are looking back The past glory. They will be used to and Abiya gets opportunities here to win back the Oromo support he lost. For the worst senoria the west may replace Abiya somebody like SiSi in Egypty.  They will not allow Ethiopia disintegrate.

If sisi its mean centralism. Will others will listen to orders and stay quiet?. Zenway went to Devils (In every ethio mind) to Somalia to fight Amaxaara and their centralism.  Ethiopia facing hard days ahead!. 

[galbeedi]

4 hours ago, Tillamook said:

Somalis in SomaliGalbeed should learn to play these groups against one another, just as they’ve done to us and them all these years, playing one Somali tribe against another.  In short, continue to buy time for Somalia proper who is still dealing with its own issues in Mogadishu.

Well, we don't know how to play these sophisticated games. Our hope is if these thing drags on  few years, and Somalia proper rises up again, then we may have a hope of deciding our destiny.

Amhara are everywhere including probably 80% of the diaspora , and will be difficult to sideline them. I see Abiy bringing back the TPLF to crush the Amhara. In Ethiopia the TPLF is the a  tough nomad like us , but better  organized than anyone else.

[Old_Observer]

4 hours ago, galbeedi said:

Well, we don't know how to play these sophisticated games. Our hope is if these thing drags on  few years, and Somalia proper rises up again, then we may have a hope of deciding our destiny.

Amhara are everywhere including probably 80% of the diaspora , and will be difficult to sideline them. I see Abiy bringing back the TPLF to crush the Amhara. In Ethiopia the TPLF is the a  tough nomad like us , but better  organized than anyone else.

Its not that the Somali is not sophisticated, but the Somali can never be the choice to govern Ethiopia by the powers that be..French, British, American, Chinese...etc Americans already hesitating by their choice of Oromo. Americans expected that the Ethiopian govt would be Oromo in name, but Amxara in content. Yamamoto made the mistake with Eritrea.

Somali:

Every single Somali should know that self governing is the basis of everything. If one has self government, is ready to participate and thrive in Ethiopia, is ready to separate if it becomes feasible and less costly....Never let outsiders play in your house. That is the key. In the mean time take advantage of everything and build your society, economy.

Always keep in touch with Djibouti, and others those close, but do not alarm Ethiopians. Only use it to extract more money from federal just like the French do in Canada.

 

[Old_Observer]

7 hours ago, Holac said:

Truly the Amharas are being radicalized. Look at the ending of the video. This is like Muqtada Alsadar militia sort of group. Here in Washington area, the Amhara diaspora is very strong. They probably send money back home to radicalize these young boys. I see very troubling times ahead for Ethiopia. 

 

 

The Amxara are running out of time. They are disintegrating. They are no more this big giant they used to project. They exactly have now 4.5 formulae and is impossible to keep the same unity even fake history when out of power.

The Agew who are now claiming their own were considered Amxara and also being called Amxara until recently.

The Argoba, Oromo..in Amxara kilil are all now on the rise. A fallen tree gets too many axes on it.

When it rains it pours.

The Amxara made one basic mistake. They supported Abiy more than necessary and now not easy to be enemy. 

[Che -Guevara]

The Amhara Region Attorney General died as a result of his injuries.

Also and apparently, the bodyguard who killed the army chief committed suicide,

[Che -Guevara]

Brig. Gen. Asamnew Tsige was killed according to Ethiopian government.

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Peace Action]

There is a lot of killing for this to be just a failed coup. Ethiopia may be headed for civil war.