Kenya is cornered by Somalia and might lose more than the sea boundaries.

[galbeedi]

Folks, this is a reliable news from Halane compound. In other words , it is from the horse's mouth.

 

A friend of mine just landed yesterday From Mogadishu by way of Addis Ababa Bole international. He works with donors and he resides in Halane. I didn't even want  to wait a day or two and have the Aftir together and . Since I am having Kenyan blues kately, I decided to get the whole info through the phone. 

 

Here is the main points of our conversation.  

 

Galbeedi: How come this time you have to fly through Addis than your usual Nairobi route ?

 

Halane: My agency usually rents the UN owned airlines which charges double than the private airlines in order to keep the UN fleet sustainable. Since Kenya announced  visa requirements and other restrictions many of our staff had decided to fly through Addis. This is the second time I went through Addis and I really enjoyed.

 

Galbeedi: How about other agencies like the world Bank, EU and others.

 

Halane: Actually for the first time the World Bank held a training for Somali bank staff in Addis last week and others were planning to follow suit. It won't take much for other agencies to move quickly to Addis. The only group that has to find long term is the UN operation and their aviation hubs.

 

Galbeedi: How about Somali ministries and other agencies that have ongoing contacts with the international community?

 

Halane: There is already contingency plan from Somali agencies and ministries from  education, healthcare, women' issues and other capacity building efforts by the international community to address and plan this issues. THey told the agencies that since Kenya doesn't allow most of these contacts had to be moved to other IGAD countries and within Somalia. So far, the best place is Addis Ababa. The Ethiopian capital is already an international city with welcoming culture and great familiarity for Somalis and international community staff. There are more direct flights from Addis to the world vthan Kenya.

 

Galbeedi: In this fight , If the Kenyans could lose more than the Somalis, why do it in the first place?

 

Halane: THey did miscalculate big time. THey even tried dirty tricks and low blow moves   in order to escalate the issue. Reliable people told me that it was Kenyan paid European hackers who infiltrated the Ethiopian foreign ministry website and annexed Somalia from the map in order to create hostility between Somalia and Ethiopia. THere ametuer shenanigans are visible from a far distance. THey even sent  people to Hargeisa and said Uhuru, dads boy , will visit Hargeisa  at the end of the year.  Kenyans airlines are losing money already.

 

Galbeedi: Yet, so far Somalia didn't retaliate against these moves. why not?

 

Halane: Somalia is acting like a mature adult in this saga , but, quitely hitting Kenya where it hurts. If Somalia imposes visa requirements before point of entry, it will make the international agencies and the flying public difficult to plan things. Government agencies already told their partners to set up their  meetings somewhere else. Soon the the Meru Qat trade will be blocked. THey can sabre rattle as much as they want , but Somalia is using it's weapons gradually to inflict tough blows.

 

Galbeedi: Do you believe like most of us that the whole issue is all about the Sea dispute and international court?

 

Halane: yes and no. The sea dispute is part of the Kenyan grievances and they want Somalia to bring back the dispute back to African union. Neither Farmaajo nor anyone else could bring back the case.  There are also larger issues in the region that may weaken Kenya in the future. The Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea future political and economic alliances are shifting the geopolitics of the regions from the Bantu side of east Africa ( that were his words not mine, usually I do not like using Bantu or looking down any human being) to the Cushitic side of the Horn. Besides, the economic growth that is expected in the horn is centred in Somalia and Ethiopia. In other words, Ethiopian an tapped population and the business know how of the Somalis. So, they trying to chew more than they can.

 

Galbeedi: You did visit Kismaayo last month with members of the donor community. Tell me about the city and people.

 

Halane: You know you and I  hail from Western Somalia  to Jigjiga and there are  certain western ( Galbeedi) accent we share from those who come from Godey, Qalaafe and Somali zone in general. To my surprise, all the people at the hotels and other places I had met had Galbeedi and OG  accent of Somali zone. I haven't heard any Jubba area accent. Anyway, everyone was friendly and the city was safe compared to Mogadishu..

 

Galbeedi: what do you think the fate of warlord Ahmed Madoobe?, is it the end of the rope for him or  is  he a survivor?

 

Halane: The Farmaajo government had mobilized the local people of Kismaayo. There are no Gedo candidates this time but local native OG and others are empowered to oust him. Traditionally,  Somalis do not re-elect leaders and Madoobe is not an exception. All of the other candidates are opposed Madoobe. He doesn't have any alliance. Most of the  men who took over Kismaayo were either trained by Kenya or were members of Cabdi Illey Liyu police. THey might be tough , but are disliked by the local people. The time has come for the local Somalis regardless of clan to choose their leaders. Unfortunately for him, he is neither from KIsmaayo, Qooqaani, Gedo or Bu'ale. 

 

Galbeedi: how about if he refuses to hold and open election or refuses the verdict ? 

 

Halane: The international community had told him already about holding free election and the Somali government had issues guidelines for the regional election. He gas no choice but to hold an open free election or economic sanctions will cripple him. Kenya is pushing him to confront the federal government.

 

 

Galbeedi: do the regional governments been squeezed by Farmaajo or it is the other way around?

 

Halane: It is all about money and who controls that money. The regional governments had appealed to the American ambassador and other donors to receive aid  money directly from  the donors instead of through the federal government. Despite the fake promises made by the donors, the Somali government drew a redline and told that everything must go through them. Last week, Puntalnd leader Deni was told by the donors to do their process and needs through the government. That is why he is talking tough this weak.

 

Galbeedi: I know you support the government, but do you think this reclusive guy Farmaajo is turning the tide against the Kenyans and other foreign nations?

 

Halane: Government policies both economically and geopolitics take shape slowly. It is difficult for the regular people to notice, but Somalia is gaining traction in the world stage and the region. The international community sees Somalia as a nation that had survived through thick and thin. I know you are Ethiopia phopic but real cooperation will bear real fruit soon. People had to be patient.

 

That is all folks. 

 

Hearing this stories made my day . I think we have cornered the Kenyans and might even defeat them without even firing a bullet. 

 

 

[Barwaaqo]

2 hours ago, galbeedi said:

Reliable people told me that it was Kenyan paid European hackers who infiltrated the Ethiopian foreign ministry website and annexed Somalia from the map in order to create hostility between Somalia and Ethiopia.

Oo falkaasu miyaanu Ethopia iyo Kenya colaysiinayn? Galbeedi bahasha bun ka dhin!

[Che -Guevara]

Somalis are morons but it turns our neighbors are morons too even though they have the upper hand.

[Old_Observer]

galbeedi,

The main issue with kenya is great if it succeeds.

The rest of the staff that relates to the regional is dangerous. It is all based on excluding somebody. This is based on excluding Djibouti and Somaliland. Next step will exclude Jubaland and Puntland.

As you know Eritrea is just temporary. As soon as Ethiopia wants to invest in Kismayu rather than Assab or Massawa conflict starts. About 65% of Ethiopia should use Djibouti and Somalia in good cost effective economic sense, but always politics determines.

Both Xabeshi and Somali are mixed people. This Kush thing sounds more facebook hot air and some people who have lower confidence of standing on themselves. Everybody in East Africa is Kush or mixed race with Kush. That is too big and too far to organize around.

Remember that Russians, Polish are close Slavic yet Poland has been always close and tool of French, Anglo mostly against Russia.

Somalis can win competition or war easily with Kenya than with Ethiopia.

One way or another looks like Ethiopia will get in deeper in Somalia affairs.

 

Big Question.

Why Somalia did not encourage agencies to use Kililka instead of deep in Addis Ababa...I know why and this will be one of the reasons if this project does not work. Don't blame ONLF which is friendy now to Djibouti and Somaliland as an insurance.

 

Its the usual African joke:

Someone who cannot organize a construction of a village Mosque or School talking about Globalism or regional integration.

 

UAE that was condemned not to do any thing in Somalia because of Berbera is now deep inside, Berbera is forgotten, withdrawn from UN lol..etc and Turkish and Qatar are slowly being frozen. All in one year.

 

[Peace Action]

I am surprised by the childish behavior of the Kenyan government. Who is advising Uhuru? They will be forced to back bedel their ill advised actions against Somalia because ultimately it will hurt them.

[galbeedi]

where do I start?

3 hours ago, Old_Observer said:

Djibouti and Somalia in good cost effective economic sense, but always politics determines.

OO,

I know you like Djibouti but as a city state , it is too small to accomodate tens of thousands of foreign staff and their logistic needs. The whole Djibouti hotel and business infrastructure is based on few blocks in " Guutka" . they do not have airports or other amenities..

3 hours ago, Apophis said:

Btw Siyad Bare was from Shilabo, Aidid also from the same region. I would not be surprised if you yourself are sogalot

 

One thing we all agree. We are definitely all Soogalooti including me. A Somali is Somali regardless of where he was born. What bugs me is that we went Kenya, Djibouti and other places  because there were other Somalis residing there. You are the one trying to kick other Somalis from Kenya and confiscate their business.

 

 

[galbeedi]

19 hours ago, Barwaaqo said:

Oo falkaasu miyaanu Ethopia iyo Kenya colaysiinayn? Galbeedi bahasha bun ka dhin!

Barwaaqo,

"Qaali Dumar" our favorite sister in SOL had joined " Canaasiira" who like to needle me in the vein from time to time.

It looks like nineteen eighties , all the Somali alphabet movements are joining hands. WAxaad moodaa in Jabhadihii qaranka dumiyey ay isgaashaan buuraysanayaan : SNM, SSDF, USC and SPM.

Allow sahal amuuraha.

[Barwaaqo]

Galbeedi, sheeko-xariirtaadda inaan ku Margaday  uun baan kuu sheegay.  FYI, taako Somali leedahay bad iyo beri toonna cid kale uma ogoli -(huuno ,  dhiiga tuumbo laygama   nuugin) . 

 

[galbeedi]

 

Sister, You can say what even you want and even kick me  if you want. What else can I say about Somali women who are above and beyond others  than " Gobsana Hablahayagu.

 

 

 

[Old_Observer]

Somalia problem now can be solved either from outside to inside or inside to outside.

Outside to inside is not possible. Too many outsiders with very different objectives non of which aligns with Somalia's needs.

If it was the Arabs only you can choose one side and fight but even the arabs have their satellites like Ethiopia who have different need than the Arabs.

The best is from inside to convince the regions to do their quarrel without calling outsiders. But then the federals also should not involve outsiders.

If one group calls Ethiopia another will call Kenya another will call Egypt...never get together.

 

Farmaajo is relying too much on outsiders and that is more harmful than good even if he temporarily wins like in SW.

[Old_Observer]

What was the agreement between Italy and British?

Is it everywhere in Africa applied with latitude straight or the land border line continues to the sea?

Lets apply the latitude line on Djibouti.

From Eritrea if the land border line is continued then Eritrea would get very close to Bab El mendeb, but it is not. Eritrea land may seem close to Bab El Mendeb, but the sea line is not. Djibouti has complete coverage.

On Somaliland side as well if the land line was to continue, Somaliland would have very small and short sea. Here also its using latitude line.

Unless there was an agreement like the one between Eritrea and Ethiopia that gave the village to Eritrea by a straight line from one hill to where two small seasonal rivers met.

Everybody is getting worked up and it seems more of current politics and less to do with the real thing.