A new war might remake the middle east which is forcing the unity caravan to arrive Hargeisa earlier than we thought.

[galbeedi]

The great Somali comedian AHN Cabdalle Raage had said few things about freedom to talk. The legend of the story goes like this : while he was either riding a taxi, bus or a car--- I do not know the exact vehicle---with one of the daughters of late  president Siyaad Barre (AHN) , he farted on purpose to annoy one of  the teenage girls of the president. She was shocked how openly the man has made noise and complained. He said your father has denied us to talk and silenced us, and now you want to deny us  the release of the air from rear ( Aabahaa ayaa afka na qabtay adiguna ma dabadaad na qaban).

 

If you are in Hargeisa these days, the most famous words in the street are don't shush me ( Waar Afka ha na qaban).

 

Somalis every where are denied basic rights of human beings. The right to a decent job,  the right to vote, the right to reject injustice and the right to live in save homes in their own country . Some had achieved peace and certain rights,  yet the biggest freedom the Somali nomad can not be refused is the right to room the land as he wishes , and the right to speak his mind. You can't shush the oral society of Somalia, yet the Somali despots do not  know any better.

 

As they say, " misery not only loves company" but also want to talk and talk .

 

 It is the ultimate freedom that is left for the Somali man  while everything else is unreachable.. That is why after a week of work , we all want to sit down with our friends in coffee shops and chat, although lately it is becoming difficult to sit down in one place for more than an hour. 

 

Waar Afka hana Qaban.

 

A man from the diaspora who used to talk as he wished in the Somali media had met Muuse Biixi during the campaign of 2017. After few discussion of freedom and  dictatorship, Muuse Biixi jumped in and said, " do you know who is the dictator"? . dictator is a man who comes in front of the media and talks as he wishes without even checking the accuracy of his thoughts and offending everyone as he wishes. That is the dictator.

 

That fellow didn't understand Muuse is agitated by those who have a microphone, especially in the diaspora. In Hargeisa,  where everything from the palace  gossip to the ministers nepotism  and government business is in the open, Biixi has difficulty to silence people. If he was familiar with the Twitter like Trump , he would have answered every noise from his detractors with midnight Tweet. Few Weeks ago , he might even had thoughts of arresting professor Samatar and Cali Khaliif in his head, but decided only to stop them traveling to  Borama. He even put letters in private hotels warrining them the consequences of hosting these free speech promoted by these two strange  guys. Some are demanding that these two guy be silenced and denied the right to free assembly and speech. According to Muuse, if people kept talking openly, especially about the sacred day of 18 May, things might crumble under his watch. The problem is that you can't silence people who are unemployed and got plenty of time to talk and talk. Misery loves company and want to talk.

 

 

Sometimes he want to try and ignore the barking of the politicians and the public, but some fool  will go to the media and remind him to do something about it ( Waar ninkan madaxweynaha iyo qaranka wax ka sheegay maxaa wax looga qaban la'aayahay).Sometimes a local police or even a minister might try to take the initiative , but suddenly it backfires. A member of parliament emboldened by the two professors questioned  the SNM 18 May and thrown to jail without due process. Just like another street criminal he was locked after someone  complained . This lock up of the member is probably a  rude warning to  Samatar and Khaliif. Last year , he said, " those young boys strolling the streets needs discipline and hair cut" . Next day The police decided to the take the initiative and started to shave the heads of the boys in public. After a public outcry they reversed the hair cut.

 

Yet, despite all the talk,  Hargeisa had decided not to talk about the current events , especially the unity drums waged by the regional governments and the international community. The Egyptians, Emirates, Qataris, Americans, Ethiopians, Eritreans and the whole world wants to push the unity issues sooner rather than later. 

 

The Middle East is changing , Again.

 

Folks, the world is changing and a lot is brewing in our region , and the world powers want to remake the middle east one more time. A lot of things could happen before Trump leaves office. The Palestinian issue will be resolved either by hook or crook. The latest proposal already leaked to the Israeli media could be the new framework for the so called New palestine. 

 

Despite his pro-Israeli viewpoints Trump want to accomplish what he calls the deal of the century. In this proposal, the Palestinians will get the West Bank without the jewish settlements  and will have border connections with Jordan. They will keep the Gazza Strip and a huge land from the Egyptian Sinai will be leased to Gazza to make airports, warehouses and other industrial land since Gazza is already crowded. Jerusalem will be the capital of both states but the city will be managed by the Israeli municipal government while the Arabs would have palestinian citizenship, and both communities can't sell their houses  to the other. A four lane highway will connect Gazza to the West Bank. The land lost to settlement will be compensated by the Sinai land offered by Egypt.

 

 

The Saudis will pay $10 billion dollars to sell the deal to the Palestinian leadership lad by Mahmuud abbas. The dilemma is whether Hamas led Gazza would accept the deal. While these deal gives a lot of settlement land to Israel, it might allow the Palestinians to have an independent state and live in a country without conflicts for the near future. 

 

Another issue,  for the push to sideline Iran,  one way or another,  is despite its huge army Israel is no longer a force that can invade or occupy Arab lands anymore. Few years ago the Israeli tanks could not cross even few kilometers inside southern Lebanon with heavy casualties. With tens of thousands of rockets HisbuAllah could hit anywhere in Israel. Just Like Hisbuallah, the Palestinian Hamas is becoming a formidable force that is not going away. Last week Hamas had fired 700 missiles to Israel , and even hit Tel Aviv.  Israeli planes destroyed houses , buildings and killed three dozen palestinians. Yet, Hamas rockets killed four and wounded many Israelis, and as usual,  Israel is reluctant to take casualties.  Invasion of Gazza could be even worse both for casualty and world opinion. Gazza is already an open prison blockaded both from land and sea, and bombarding that crowded place will alienate the international community even more. .Reports even indicate that the latest ceasefire brokered by Egypt was demanded by Netanyahu.

 

In other words, these missiles could get more dangerous as times pass. So, the Jewish state had decided with the help of the gulf and the Saudis to crible Iran economically first and militarily if possible through the United State. On the later, Israel could create a catastrophic event that could culminate a war between America and Iran. 

 

The removal of the Palestinian issue from equation will facilitate the rapprochement  between the gulf and Israel in particular and the Arab world in general. After that  century old conflict  is removed , the next step is to prepare the confrontation with Iran. Let alone a big war, but even small skirmishes between Iran and america in the narrow strait  of Hormuz will disrupt world oil supply. OIl and commerce from UAE, Saudi, Qatar, Iraq , Iran and Kuwait pass through here. A disruption  will affect the world energy markets. Saudi Arabia had already built pipe lines from the east to the west to export in the  Red Sea.  As commerce diverts to the Red Sea and  to another narrow lanes of Bab Al Mandab, Somalia will be the strategic gateway to Asia and the southern Atlantic.  30% of world crude oil and other traded of goods pass through  the Strait of Hormuz every day. 

 

Let alone war, if disruption happens oil could hit $100 dollar or more again just by the news of conflict. Also, oil producing countries, including Russia and OPEC  are privately encouraging war in order to increase the price of oil. Three or four years of war would increase  their coffers with billions of dollars.  Iran could put mines, torpedos or even speed boats to harass and discourage oil tankers. If Iran is squeezed and denied to ship oil as Trump plans, it might try to fight back and destroy  the gulf assets belonging to the American allies including UAE. In this conflict, losers will be China, India, EU, Japan or any industrialized nation that imports energy.

 

A war with Iran will be long and  dangerous even for America. Because of these major trade issues the Somali waters will be the most important waterways in the world . Already more than 5% of world trade passes the Somali waters and would increase to 30% if Hormuz is closed.  No wonder even landlocked Ethiopia want to build a 30,000 man navy to safeguard the sea lanes that doesn't belong to her. You might even heard IGAD led by landlocked Uganda and Ethiopia draft the Somali maritime policy. 

 

For these reasons, the powers that be want to settle the Somali issue ASAP. 

 

My sources told me that diplomats and officials landing Hargeisa for the last few weeks were not bringing only aid or  the usual niceties. Most of them were bringing messages to resolve these issues. Unlike  many people in Somaliland, the world doesn't have time for lecture or history lessons from these Somali nomads whether they are in Hargeisa or Mogadishu. They see how identical the Somali race is in terms of culture , religion , custom and habit. They even see how the Somali nomads have  no actual borders to keep them out of the  globe let alone in the Horn of Africa.

 

A Somaliland minister in Hargeisa might leave the next morning and join the government in Mogadishu with the same capacity and no one will even notice except few people in the media. A judge in Somaliland would go to Mogadishu and even lead the supreme court of Somalia.The man who is running Jubbaland and his army had just crossed from the Somali region of Ethiopia just a decade ago and no one is debating his nationality. It is the only few freedoms we have , to room Hargeisa, Waamo or Wardheer; boosaaso or Borama without being asked a passport. Those Somalis who were officers in the Somali army who belonged to the Jesus clan in Djibouti had crossed to that country after the independence and became officers of Djibouti. No questions asked.

 

 Despite what we claim , the world sees us as a unique nomadic race who is united by destiny but divided by tribe. 

 

For the real world , a war in Hargeisa city that destroyed buildings and lasted just over four weeks is child's play compared to the eighth year of bombardment in  Syria which killed 500,000 people and made six million refugees;  the disastrous war in Yemen  already produced a  casualty of 100,000 while  that starved millions, yet there is no sight to end.  Half Million Ruhinga Muslims are  in limbo with no where to return. Without minimizing the suffering of the civilian population of Hargeisa and Burco and the killings of  those who were innocent, the Somali civil war was just an ugly skirmishes that refused to end one way or the other. If that was a real war, then wars usually end . The guns are blazing in Sool, Sanaag, Galgaduud, Bay and Kismaayo and Mogadishu.

 

The naysayers will dismiss this  just as another long Galbeedi drival,  but , history had shown that the world had tried to end this Somali quagmire through Somaliland before. Just after 911, US Central Command Chief general Tommy Franks wanted to invade Somalia after Afghanistan before defense secretary Rumsfeld and the Neocons pushed the Iraq war. Top American officials went to Hargeisa and proposed to Mohamed I. Cigaal (AHN) to lead the whole nation from Hargeisa. By that time,  Cigaal was diagnosed with terminal illness and was unable to push that issues. He excused himself by saying that , " it is difficult to organize and rule the south dominated by warlords combined with  the powerful religious movements who were laying law" . Also, not only Mogadishu, but there was also C/laahi Yusuf (AHN) who was hell bent to be the next president (Mar uun madaxweyne I dhaha).  cigaal couldn't do it. 

 

 

Then in 2011,, during the reign of Shariif Ahmed, Somali was not only suffering from  the insurgency war of Al-shbaab,  but also a devastating famine that killed thousands. Then UN envoy Augustine Mahiga went to Hargeisa and sat down with Ahmed Siilaanyo. He said, " in 1972 , when you were the minister responsible for the economy of Somalia, how much was the budget of Somalia?, he answered, "  about $300-400 million dollars".

well,he said, " how about if I offer you ten times that amount, about  three billion dollars and rule the whole country with blessing of the UN".

 

Ahmed Siilaanyo would have jumped about that opportunity if the offer had came earlier years. Now, frail and sick , he neither have the energy nor the oratory to sell his plans to Somaliland ( Markaan tabar hayeyna tala mahayn, imaka oon talo hayana tabar ma Hayo). The best he could offer was some relief money to Mogadishu by the civil society. Also, deep down, he thought the insurgency was difficult to subdue. To his surprise, in September 2012, the Somalis with the help of the world had produced a national government led by Hassan Sheikh. Its failure is another story.

 

Anyway, it had been tried before. Now, the current leader, Muuse Biixi is neither sick nor old. He and the opposition both understand the opportunity to lead the whole nation. Prominent  Somalilanders told me that the international community had enquired many times and want to resolve the Somali issue through Somaliland by peace initiative led by them. Some say their condition was independence  after solving the issue, but others say it was a union proposal. Abiy even wanted to land in Hargeisa with Farmaajo, while Egypt and UAE proposed to finance the future army and the infrastructure of the future union.  For the Arabs, the so called Arab NATO wouldn't be possible without Sudan and Somalia. A Somali trained army would crush the Houthis in half day. Pay the Somali soldier  $1000/month and Somalis will take over Sana. Do you guys know Somalis joined the Iran-iraq war just for the money. You rather fight and make money than die in the high seas or sit idle in Hargeisa and Gaalkacayo.

 

In order to push the issue President Farmaajo has done two major things that others might not do. First, he is willing to put his seat on the line and trade for unity and peace ( Kursigiisa in uu ka dego diyaar buu u yahay haddii midnimo la helayo);  Second, he showed the world how the Northern Somalis were prominent in his government. In fact, the most important positions of the government is now held by Northern politicians. Farmaajo trusts more the ability and competence of the northerns compared to southerners. THe finance minister, who is one of the most prominent in his administration and the deputy premier who had shown both elequency and capacity are both from North. Crucial position like the speaker of the upper house, the supreme court justice, the bank governor and the constitutional minister are  all from north as well as the minister of the Radio and Television. He is showing how fluid is the interchanges of somalis from the North to join here back and forth. This is not the Korean divide or even the old German divide. It is the decision of incompetence and  tribal greed( waa mid Farsamo xumo iyo Fawdo keentay si looga baxana la garan laa yaahay).

 

Yet despite all these moves, Farmaajo must first get out of the mess in the South and show peace in Mogadishu and surrounding region. There is no need to waste time to warlords like Xaaf and Madoobe who want to extend their term without elections. Push the national agenda without the regional men who have nothing to offer and concentrate to the pacifying of the two rivers and then focus Somaliland.

 

If Hargeisa started talking openly, Muuse Biixi couldn't find enough jails to put everyone. Deep down Muuse is conflicted. Rather than arrest those who bad mouth him and debate with Xildhibaan Nacnac every day, he could be be the leader of the Somali free world which is big in our side. 

 

In conclusion, either the words of deputy premier Khadar Guuleed is correct by saying that Somaliland had missed an opportunity , or Somalis will think once in their life time and change direction. Either these opportunities might just disappear or we may find in a new down thanks to the geopolitics of our region and our strategic location. Hope for the best.

 

  

[Tallaabo]

8 hours ago, galbeedi said:

For the real world , a war in Hargeisa city that destroyed buildings and lasted just over four weeks is child's play compared to the eighth year of bombardment in  Syria which killed 500,000 people and made six million refugees;  the disastrous war in Yemen  already produced a  casualty of 100,000 while  that starved millions, yet there is no sight to end.  Half Million Ruhinga Muslims are  in limbo with no where to return. Without minimizing the suffering of the civilian population of Hargeisa and Burco and the killings of  those who were innocent, the Somali civil war was just an ugly skirmishes that refused to end one way or the other. If that was a real war, then wars usually end .

Do you know what proportionality means? Do you think that a clan with about a million people loosing 50,000 or more which is about 5% of its members is affected the same way as a country of 20 million plus people loosing 100 thousand or just about 0.5% of its citizens? How about if somehow God forbid Awdalites lost 5% of their people, with many more physically and psychologically injured people, 100% destruction of property? 100% displacement of people? Don't you think that it would be highly possible that you would have  personally lost family members along with your assets? 

[Tillamook]

Galbeedi, thank you for the nice piece of fiction.    It has been a good 5 minutes JRR Tolkien wouldn’t  be getting my attention today.

[Haatu]

I would happily crown even Mr Oodweyne as eternal emperor of all Somalis and let the HY rule for a 1000 years if that guaranteed peace but I doubt we are near what you are suggesting Mr Galbeedi.

We are living in interesting times. Major change is afoot, however I fear that Somalis will be left behind and others will decide their destiny for them as has been the case for the last 150 years.

[Dahireeto]

Haatu, Oodweyne doesn't have the capacity to lead a goat to water let alone manage the affairs of a complex society such as ours. 

[galbeedi]

Tilamook,

 

Wasting just five minute of your time  isn't that bad compared the thirty years we lost arguing for nothing.

 

Except Gaas Dhagoolayaal , there is movements in Somali issue these days. Events I described are all accurate except my opinions which are  one man's view point. You could argue that the chances of this happening is zero, on your side, but in politics there is always the art of making things possible.

 

Any way, who the hell is JRR?

 

Talllaabo,

 

I agree with you that losing 50,000 or 5% of the population is huge anywhere especially a Somali clan or group. I am also sorry about many innocent non combatant civilians who lost their lives. Not only that community but a lot of innocent Somalis who lived in Hargeisa  at that  time also died due to revenge , crossfire or just been caught in the conflict. War is a horrible Yet, a lot of people in Somaliland consider unthinkable for the state to bomb the city in order to expel the rebels. Any government regardless of its status whether dictatorship or democracy will defend the country against any rebel groups that tries to dismember it , and would use any force available to repel that. 

 

Most Somalis don't comprehend real wars that took place around the globe. After the destruction, there is hope and rebuilding, always. If you study the American civil war, you will be shocked how many blood and destruction were inflicted especially the Southern Confederates in order to unite the country. General Sherman burned Atlanta, Columbia, South Carolina and other towns  in order to weaken  the south's ability to wage war, and ransacked much of the south in order to break the moral of the south. 

What I mean is that the events that happened during the cold war which was waged from the Ethiopian side and the Somali side will not be basis for separation or unity according to the international community. 

Others had designs for our borders since 1948, 54, 60. 

We all need way out of the mess.

 

Daahireeto welcome back. waa lagu waayey .

[galbeedi]

f I have had the opportunity, just like general William T. Sherman , my army would march from Afgooye to Kismaayo, and from Balcad to Lowyacado. Somali tribes can have their enclaves but my mission would have been to secure the whole country first. I hor joogsan maayaan maleeshiyo beeleed.

Certainly I wouldn't debate Xaaf, DEni or Madoobe to secure my country.Secure the whole country first and debate later. Anything the Somali tribes created for the last thirty years could be reversed. 

If there is a will, there is a way. 

[Tillamook]

8 hours ago, galbeedi said:

f I have had the opportunity, just like general William T. Sherman , my army would march from Afgooye to Kismaayo, and from Balcad to Lowyacado. Somali tribes can have their enclaves but my mission would have been to secure the whole country first. I hor joogsan maayaan maleeshiyo beeleed.

Certainly I wouldn't debate Xaaf, DEni or Madoobe to secure my country.Secure the whole country first and debate later. Anything the Somali tribes created for the last thirty years could be reversed. 

If there is a will, there is a way. 

lol  

Opportunity = “you and who’s army?”

Galbeedi, sxb, Ramadan Mubarak.  Waan ujeedaa maanta soonku aad buu ku hayaa

[Old_Observer]

13 hours ago, galbeedi said:

  Anything the Somali tribes created for the last thirty years could be reversed. 

If there is a will, there is a way. 

I am afraid that is a big mistake. 30 years is more than a generation. Do you know how many nomads have changed the water wells they used and used to fight for?

There are so many refugees around the world that some clans back home worry about Canada and you than they do about the neighboring clan or territory. The news that a Somali politician is becoming more prominent in washington or Ottawa or Amsterdam than Hargeisa or Baidahaba is new phenomenon, that comes with generations.

Somaliland is now very very low in the calculus of Jubaland. As you are well aware from Kililka, every generation has swayed dramatically from one Somalia for all Somalis, to many Somalias to few Somalias.

Since there will not be clear winner, but stalemate in the middle east, will be same for Somalis with few shifting sands. There is nobody that wants to deal with all Somalis in one basket. Very expensive and too much work. World powers will only focus on the part of Somalis they really need at any given time.

If Turkey decides to make peace with Syria and close that file, then for sure there would be big changes. As long as Turkey is kept busy at home, the whole red sea will be play ground of Saudi, Egyptian, UAE...childrens games.

[Old_Observer]

galbeedi,

Here is a geopolitics on a small scale, but with some drastic changes.

Remember the last day's of Illey where you did not mind splitting Kililka? Its now a train gathering speed. Abiy with some support of the Amxara wants to undo the existing regions. Its now plainly obvious that you have better chance of winning in Oromo kilil than he does.

One province that will be restored is Hararge and border it with Djibouti. Many Oromos are convinced of long term benefits of them inching to Djibouti and Somaliland. Both to Mugadishu and Kismayu is impossible for Oromo.

The new Hararge will be 65% Oromo, 25% Somali and the rest with Afar and others.

Oromo definitely need a port close or a port they can influence easily. Assab is too far deep in Afar even if Ethiopia gets open access to it. Kenya is too stable, relatively and also America and Britain want to keep it the way it is.

The Oromo want to avoid Tigray and Big Foot. These two are nothing but trouble.

Hararge will give the Oromo stability and Amxara support in Ethiopia and also close to port control with less problems. If the Oromo stay in power for 10-15 years, most on the way to Djibouti and northern Somaliland will be either full or half Oromo.