There is no one to defuse tensions in Somaliland including the paranoid president Biixi.

[galbeedi]

Does anyone has any idea how  to tame and calm down an angry opposition which not only has the means to make your life difficult but also  has logistical advantage and vast land to organize?.  certainly not Muuse Biixi , an angry man who want verbally to answer anyone who says something bad is not one of them. He even have people who monitor social media and persecute those  who are bold enough to criticize the dear leader.

 

Ahmed Siilaanyo became a leader and came up with new ways of doing things in order to appease and reward for those who supported him. He quadrupled the salaries of ministers and members of parliament; he make sure to satisfy almost every clan  member of SNM Habro regardless of those who voted for him or not. By opening the cash , people cursed Rayaale by hiding all this cash follow from them ( Waar ma waxanoo lacaga oo qasnada ku jirtay ayuu naga qarinayey). Little did they knew that the fair and free election conducted by the Rayaale administration had finally brought a lot of cash from donors and Siilaanyo decided to distribute the cash. Even fired ministers kept their salary and the Landcruiser they drove. Millions dollars that  that supposed to bring water to Hargeisa were looted, but everyone was happy.

 

When those from Awdal agitated, he sent emissaries from the region to calm down the waters and personally visited Awdal constantly sitting among the people. When Suldaan wabar came to the border with few men to make trouble, he sent Wabar's  cousin Libaax Rayaale to lead the army in Quljeed. Sool and Khaatumo were either bribed  , courted or confronted in a way that eventually led to peace talks with  Cali Khaliif. The opposition party members from West Burco even got the lions share of the cabinet including the interior minister .Despite the corruption and looting of the public purse , there was tribal harmony among the Habro. 

 

People tolerated the misdeeds and corruptions of Ahmed Siilaanyo administration due to certain characters of Siilaanyo. Since he was the longest SNM leader who led the tribe , he was given certain gratitude.  Also, his cognitive illness which was apparent to everyone including the opposition has allowed him to make mistakes . His chiefs of staffs were always running the show while Siiaalnyo assumed an open door policy that allowed him to meet everyone. when mistakes do happen, it was blamed on his aides. 

 

Yet, among the opposition and the public in general , there was a gentleman's agreement that said: Let the old man finish his term and retire with dignity. one opposition leader who visited Canada openly said: We can't put down someone due to his illness ( Waar odayga ma xanuun baanu ku caynaa).

 

The Kulmiye fools including Muuse Biixi who were agitating for power had forgot that the tolerance for corruption and other misdeeds in their party was possible because people had the expectations of change after the election.. For the last years of the Siilaanyo administration, Biixi even put his men in the cabinet and changed the balance of power.

 

Biixi didn't realize that not only he got a restless opposition but also the wrath of the public who were patient with the misdeeds of his party for seven years. For a normal leader, the most important moves should be to reduce the anger of the opposition and reduce tension in the fault line regions. There were already politically motivated tribal clashes  in Sanaag during Siilaayo's reign and that issue could get ugly if the Jeegaan members  were put in change of the de-escalation. A wise leader would have reduced  the tension by appointing heavy weight ministers that were above the tribal stamps. He didn't realize that due to corruption and rampant nepotism the system is fragile and can't accept anymore unnecessary pressure and tribal patronage. Biixi didn't read the writing in the wall or he lives in different reality than most people. 

 

Another way to defuse the hostility  is to appoint the pro government members of the opposition clans and empower them to bring peace in their regions. Give them confidence and credibility to mitigate the problem.  The GX community initially was given the finance and health care ministries which are one of the main cabinet portfolios . After the opposition clans agitated and the media attacked him for something or another, he doubled down and dismissed those two and exchanged with his own clan. He used and  dismissed Samatar after the campaign, and marginalized  the vice president who brought him 40,000 votes from Awdal. 

 

Furthermore, he thinks he can crush the opposition by using military force. Sanaag which is one of the largest provinces of the 18 Somali regions is a third of  the Somaliland land mass. No army can occupy permanently that kind of huge land. Tribal harmony is must for peace to reign.

 

Also, Biixi, to his credit,  is trying to reduce public money theft among government ministries and agencies. The laissez faire economic system that allowed business people to import  everything without regulation is also been securitized by the government. Furthermore, the unearned material gains people accustomed are no longer there under the Biixi government. Hungry tribes watching others eat is unaccepted. In other words, the tribal agreement system that allowed everyone to loot and eat at the expense of institution and law had finally caught Somaliland. You rip what you sow.

 

If you nurture the tribal beast system without  check it will finally consume you. Suddenly the ruling sub clan becomes the most noble, numerical and powerful with false boastings.Those who became rich of the looting and the patronage  feel entitled of the favors given by the leaders. It happened before and it is happening now. The OG community empowered and lifted by Siyaad Barre within the Somali military  in the eighties , had risen up and decided to join  the rebels. Having risen to the top and seeing  the power close, they thought to depose their patron.  The opposition members of the Jesus clan in Djibouti had replaced the native Djiboutian and other clans both in public service, cabinet and military. When they were replacing other clans like Awdalites and native Djiboutian , they never felt any injustice or regret. They finally decided to challenge the man who made them--Cumar Ghelleh. Since they were no one before him, he crushed them . Now it is inter-clan warfare, and the cry of the opposition is music tp the ears of many people. 

 

Decades of corruption , nepotism, looting and disregard of the rule of law has finally catch up to Biixi and Somaliland. In the nineteen sixties every Somali traveled to Mogadishu to gain an earned material gain without working . Eventually that system gave way for the military to take over. The same thing goes today in Mogadishu and Hargeisa. Despite the bullets and bombs flying, Somali  elites go to Mogadishu to earn  six figure salary from the NGO's. while doing almost nothing. Thousands of unemployed politicians are sipping tea in Hargeisa hotels waiting  for the few assignments. Muuse can't continue with old system of bribing everyone with their own money, and can not manage a belt tightening system while hungry tribes agitate. Damn if you do and damn if you don't. 

 

Just like in Mogadishu the government and the opposition are  joining forces with rival  rich gulf monarchs. While Biixi is courting the UAE, the Wadani opposition is flirting with Qatar. Reports indicate that Sanaag small ports, Laasqoray and Maydh could be financed by Qatar and others. arms might even follow the ports. Furthermore, no one is backing down. Biixi want to keep these tensions until the parliamentary elections take place. Conflicts among clans always bring badly needed votes for the ruling Kulmiye. Despite their alliance of certain groups leaders must act for the larger interest of the people. When Gabiley misfits attacked Seemaal villagers while sleeping, Siilaanyo put his foot down and even arrested ministers while firing the army chief ( Waar ma aniga oo hadda uun kursiga ku fadhiisayay ayaad dagaal igu kiciseen ayuu yidhi).

 

Folks , this a Mexican standoff. Unless the Sixth community comes up with new ideas expect the unforeseen confrontations.  Already accusations of treason and other allegations are flying around. 

[maakhiri1]

1 hour ago, Amigos said:

 

What is your point? 

The minority Awdal community's votes did not have any real effect on the results of the elections. The Kulmiye margin, in case you did not know, was 80,000 votes, meaning if no one from Awdal voted for Biixi at all, he would have still won a comfortable majority. In fact, if every single vote cast in Awdal was for Wadani, Kulmiye would have still won a clear majority.

To be clear, statistically speaking, the Awdal community did not deserve the VP position based on their numbers, or votes they brought to Biixi. But giving that position to a minority community aids Somaliland's inclusivity credentials/aims.  

So if someone has 80k more votes and u remove 40k and put in the other party, what happens? Amigos,  back to arithmetics.

[galbeedi]

You probably do not know math that much , but if you deduct 40,000from Kulmiye and add to Waddani ,the later will equal or win.

. Awdal votes had always flatulated between . It had 111,000 in 2003; 90 thousand in 2005 and 81,000 in 2010.

We know that Kulmiye stole even in 2017. Sanaag had almost 60 thousand in 2010  and less than 40 now. Saaxil which has 29,000 in 2010 got 45,000 this time around while the Awdal votes decline since 2013.

The registries votes in Awdal exceeded 138,000 , yet it was the first place to test the card register and distribution. If you miss your card within two weeks , there were no chances to get back.

If you remove the hundred thousand Oromo and other Somalis in Hargeisa, the whole Somaliland votes will be around 450,000 and Awdal could easily hit a quarter 25%. 

Besides the ghost town of Gabiley had 60,000 votes more than combined of Sool and Sanaag.

If real fair election is held the Habro voting number might not even reach 300,000 let alone Kulmiye.

[galbeedi]

The 100,000 Awdal vote could tip the election. If the Sool region registers like everyone else from Yagoori, Buuhoodle, Taleex, Xudun and Laascaanood, the opposition could win easily. 

We all know Wadani is the future if the theft and children voting is not allowed.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Why would  awdal  vote against  kulmiye  they have been pro kulmiye since inarayaale lost to siilaanyo in 2010. 

[Holac]

Mr. Bihi truly believes his sub clan is the biggest in Somaliland today. Odaygu wuu is mahadiyey. The population of wajaale/gabiley/Hargeisa clan has grown exponentially in the last 15 years. He is becoming more arrogant by the day. 

[Old_Observer]

On 5/3/2019 at 12:51 AM, galbeedi said:

Does anyone has any idea how  to tame and calm down an angry opposition which not only has the means to make your life difficult but also  has logistical advantage and vast land to organize?.  certainly not Muuse Biixi , an angry man who want verbally to answer anyone who says something bad is not one of them. He even have people who monitor social media and persecute those  who are bold enough to criticize the dear leader.

 

galbeedi,

As you are aware, this is the prevailing political culture all over the world now. An opposition who has no red line in the manner of speak and a government who is stunned that someone can say what they say.

Its the American style. The democrats can say of their president "he is Putin's man" "he is a traitor"...So that creates camps that cannot cross talk, but just talk. The most audacious wins. These accusations for example are all punishable by death Penalty in America. Yet these have become now ordinary words.

 

The only solution to that so far is if the government is capable change agenda or focus of the country then when the issues of the day get old, bring them back and address them.

 

 

[Tallaabo]

What is the point of arguing about region A producing more votes than region B when all of us know that the whole election was corrupted with ghost voters, child voters, Oromo voters, or simply stuffing boxes with countless fake papers? 

The last election brought to mind the infamous town of Walaweyn which used to produce millions of voters in the sixties.