Ahmed Shide will not be the next leader of the Somali State , but real changes will come regardless.

[galbeedi]

The Somali State is not Puntland or Somaliland where certain groups dominate politics.. It has the second largest land mass beside the Oromo and third largest population behind the Oromo and Amhara community. The Somali presence in  Ethiopia stretched from northern red Sea to the border of Kenya. Major towns inhabited or dominated by Oromo and others today were once  had large Somali presence including Hadaamo or today's Oromo national capital Ambo. Somali settlements were in Awash, Hawaday and today's Afar regions of the north.

 

Through Ahmed Guray,  the Somalis and other Muslims had reached all the way to the Kaffa region of Tana lake , where the nile  river  originates.  The defeat of of Ahmed Guray and Adal wars that followed had pushed Somalis from the north to South, south east and south west of Abyssinia. The Menelik and other wars that took place from 1827-1909 also pushed the land and the people west to the Somali border.  After these wars, Many  of those communities had  settled in Lower Shabbele, Jubba and Kenyan region and along the Shabbele and Jubba basin in Somali proper.

 

Those in Lower Shabbele like the Water Maal , who had left centuries ago in western regions had settled in lower Shabbele. THey were the first Somalis who confronted the Italian colonial powers and denied them to set foot the Benadir and Shabbele region for many years. After the colonials landed forcefully, The Water Maal uprising  started in 1896.  By 1904 the Italians had taken over Marka, but the revolt continued until 1926 when they were defeated in Lafoole by hands of the Italians and other Somalis who aided them. During the Italian rule and subsequent transfer of internal rule to Somalis  in 1956, those who fought the colonial powers were marginalized and their farms and properties confiscated. Today, they are trying to control their region through the dysfunction of the south west administration.

 

In 1948, after the Ogaden region of south western region joined king Haile Salasie, most Somalis found themselves under the colonial rule aided by Somalis who become the soldiers of the king. The King called them his Somali soldiers lions for oppressing others for him.  I met in Addis an elder whose father was the Suldaan in that region in 1949, and  told me that like most of Africa and Somalis of the region , they were waiting freedom after the departure of the colonial powers. Yet, in 1954, the largest and the best grazing land inhabited by Somalis from every clan was transferred to the king by the British. These land stretches from southern Buuhoodle and Wardheer all the way to Diredhaba to the east and Jigjiga to the west.

 

Emperor Menelik wars and other wars had  brought Abyssinia to control Harar in 1887, most Somalis were occupied under the Ethiopian rule aided by the European powers. Other than few guns from the Ottoman Empire, Somalis were not able to match the modern armies of the Ethiopian kings.  Later on, millions of Oromos and others had settled and joined the Somalis due to religious and cultural affiliation. Many Somalis took the Lingua franca of the day which was Oromo. Despite speaking the language of the locals,  most of  these people trace their origin to Somalis and they know it even today. Yet, unlike what we Geeljire believe,  the most important aspect of any culture worthy preserving is the faith not the language.

 

Today, those communities   dominated, oppressed and scattered throughout the horn of Africa and beyond  by the actions of the colonial powers , are regrouping and tracing back their Somalihood to change their sad history and create a new political map that will bring freedom and harmony among Somalis in the Horn of Africa.

 

There  was a conference in late February and early march that brought these community that dispersed throughout the horn and beyond  for  the first time in centuries. I was on of those from the diaspora who attended the conference. Hundreds of these people came from Mogadishu, Kismaayo, Hiiraan, Mudug, Narobi, Hargeisa, Djibouti, Borama, Burco and even Ceerigaabo. Others cane from Mooyaale, Qalaafe, Nageele, Godey, Diredhabe, Awbare, Wajaale, Baabuli, Jigjiga, Malka Jabti, Shiniile and many regions of the Somali state. 

 

The absence of these communities from the political scene had allowed many people and groups to usurp power and create an environment that created oppression, tyranny and carrying the water for the colonials . Some had been empowered by the old Abyssinian rule to carry their agenda while abusing their Somali brothers. Yet, those same Somalis who were aided and empowered by the TPLF and other colonial rulers for decades , are accusing these communities  to be unpatriotic and treasonous  and other demeaning names just  by trying to live peace with the Oromo community.  There is no doubt that some of the Oromo speaking  Somalis also belong to the D..r community and want to bridge the difference between the Oromo and Somalis in conflict zones. For the D...r having Oromo speaking Somalis is strength not weakness.

 

THere is a political change in Ethiopia that will either transform Ethiopia to a  democratic and open society or might even lead the disintegration of the region through ethnic nationalities. In order for Somalis to take advantage of the situation, the political landscape must be made fair and free for all Somalis in order to wage a united front. In order to reach that goal , those empowered by the old colonials like the TPLF and others must accept the will of the people. It will be a disaster for all,  if Mustafe Cagjar and those who were given the power use to  undermine and divide the vast Somali people, and  deny the will of the Somali people to elect their own leader.

 

In order to keep the status quo, the propaganda arm of some these groups had portrayed the political battle in the region as Somali vs Oromo . They tried to depict Ahmed Shide as an ethnic Oromo empowered by the ruling party of Ethiopia. These groups who has done nothing but undermine Somalis for sixty years are  using the Somali name again to further their grip in power. 

 

I have a news for Cagjar and others  that Ahmed Shide will not be becoming a leader in the near future . This might calm down the waters and give some solace to the agitating mop who lost their minds for the last few months , yet that fact will not change that change is on the way in Somali state. Ahmed Shide is the leader of the old party , but he is more of a bureaucrat than politician. He rose through the ranks of the federal system by being a hardworking bureaucrat. Despite the ethnic connotations of EThiopian political landscape, meritocracy and the cream coming on the top still exists in Ethiopia. None  of today's leaders had a background of being from political dynasties or  tracing their rise through their families connections.

 

Mr. Ahmed Shide  gave me  the impression of a man who  want to change things but reluctant to push all the way. As a federal minister of finance and a person trained to move the envelope in respectable and legal way, he will not be coming out and talking  things in tribal way like Mustafe Cagjar. What most of us expect from Ahmed Shide and others is to make the rule of law supreme within the Somali State and create an environment where people follow the basic criteria that most of the Ethiopian region uses. No one is debating in Oromia or Ahmara kilil which town is district, which one is town and how resource is allocated. Rather than change the man at the top, he must work to change the system. That will be a greater victory for most Sonmalis.

 

Somalis are tired of people talking about Somalinimo yet their actions give out their false tongue.  Cagjar who is deputy president officially had given more positions and appointments to his sub clan than any other leader in the region's history. He even called a tribal convention in order to match the one called by the D...r community undermining his role as a president for all. Why call Shir and ask to praise without any substance to discuss.

 

Yet, the biggest battle that will change everything is the coming census. Villages that do not have 500 residents are counted as districts while towns with street lights and booming populus are considered villages. Just 40  km south of Jigjiga  there is a village called Haroorays with less than few hundred  people,  while 20 km from the south west  is Laffaciise with street lights and wide boulevards , yet considered to be a small center. It is the same in Wajaale which is the commercial hub of the whole region. It is considered as small center. This big towns might not get people to count them while tiny villages were allocated with census clerks. Reliable sources indicate that the fony political party of the Somali region could be disbanded and members will be allocated through the census result

 

https://youtu.be/pt6EfsTX-QE?t=66

 

https://youtu.be/h-87WDcgons?t=3

The Addis conference of the D...r community has caused a lot of uproar among many Somalis throughout  Somalia and Ethiopia. The D bloack who had more Shir than any other community are  crying foul of the re-emergence of this community in South, North and west of the region. There are few groups who usually speak louder than anyone else in the world of media and internet: the D block , Somalilanders and the Mogadishu based anarchists are among the notable. Some are saying why not hold the Shir in the region and other straw mans arguments. Jigjiga doesn't even have a hotel vacancy that can hold 500 guests. When I was there , I could barely find a good hotel for few nights.

 

The Somalilanders are trying to keep what they have in Somaliland which is small compared to what is at stake in the region, while they usually keep pointing the finger for the failure of the Mogadishu based government. Yet, there is growing  number of  people within Somaliland who believe the larger D...r group is a good strategy to leave behind the Habro-Habro squabbles and aim higher for political stability in the whole region. In fact, I had met many of these in Addis and other places. A guy from west of Hargeisa told me that the world is changing and he  want to leave behind the Habro infighting which could become regressive and eventually destructive.. I agreed with him , and those of us from Awdal, in Somaliland  should aim higher than quarrel with  the small meager resources that can't satisfy the needs of everyone for larger role in the region. Yet, as many of the Landers believe that it is a risk to try and intervene the Mogadishu issue.

Yet, the presence of the Habro in Addis had shaken many in their boots. As I have witnessed, the Habro are masters of the language and have certain ways of spreading their messages across than anyone else ( Faafin Somalilanders ma maqashay). They were acting like people who could move the mountains if they wished to do. If they applied the same zeal they are pushing Somaliland on these issues, definitely they could help the D...r succeed in Mogadishu. Some southern Somalis also would like to keep Somaliland in the current political configuration in order to monopolize the power in Somalia. 

 

While he D block is among the largest and patriotic Somalis who desire a stable Somalia like most of us, their politicians are trying to keep the status quo and hold onto power . In fact, the D block propaganda is among the largest among Somali internet outlets. The same people who attacked left and right the last administration of Hassan Sheikh had tried to prop up the current government through propaganda and buying of Facebook agitators, yet after two years nothing has changed. Farmaajo had sweet  talked to  the young lady in order to marry her, but now the time has come to feed, cloth and do the role of a serious hasband and perform his duty. No sweet talk will cut it now. The dear leader is facing Uganda, Burundi, Kenya, Ethiopia and others without sound strategy to either kick them out of the country or find an agreement that suits all of them. He put all   his eggs on foreign owned basket The D block will be hammering that the OG are the rightful leaders of both in Kismaayo and Somali state and anything contrary to that  is anti Somali or anti D block. At the end someone must tell them that things had changed and accept the reality.

 

To less extend the Mogadishu anarchists had no plans or agenda to pull the nation out of the quagmire. In fact , they have no plans at all. As long as billions are spend in Mogadishu on their behalf- ( since Somalia has became one city--Mogadishu)  and the president is technically hostage to their agenda, they will not bother but keep milking the system. Relocating the capital must be the most significant strategy of any future government. If Somaliland enters any serious talks with the Mogadishu government , it must insist the relocation of the capital to Hargeisa. 

 

The real aim  of our agenda is taking over the federal government.

 

 That is why the D..r community is trying to change the status quo both in Somalia and Somali State of Ethiopia. Personally, looking the fragile nature of Ethiopia at the moment, my  best wish is to have a smooth transition and election where Somalis manage their affairs democratically and peacefully elect the best man regardless of the clan affiliation of  who becomes president. If Mustafe Cagjar wins peacefully, we would welcome like any other Somali. The question is: would others accept the verdict or wreck the boat?. We wish peace in Somali region.

 

 

Having said that, the biggest aim should be taking over the Somali leadership and the national capital from the Mogadishu anarchist. To sideline the anarchists and the greedy D block , the D...r  community must form a new larger political strategy that will bring peace in the region. People might not admit but, the regions Al-shabaab controls today are  mainly  inhabited by the D...r  and other communities who feel that the only way to confront  those who want to steal their  land and  those overruling them by way of Kenyan army  is to join the local insurgency. Both lower Shabbele and Jubba region is dominated by indigenous locals who are either robbed by anarchists from central Somalia or foreign aided administration of Kismaayo. That is why neither Ahmed Madoobe nor the federal government could go outside Kismaayo and Afgooye respectively.

 

A D...r led government in Mogadishu will bring peace in the region between the two rivers. Even the Gedo boys who are making noise in Jubba know that, they are smaller compared to other groups who do not have the same propaganda outlets. Folks, these two groups in the south had failed the Somali people for 30 years and the time has come for them give power. As history had shown, they will not give up easily, yet I do believe that they must be convinced for their well being and for the larger Somali community.

Finally, I do not waste any time but should mention some members of the GH community in Hargeisa and the social media who are wasting their time to denounce the Addis Shir. I have seen and met a large group of that community who participated on that Shir including women who came all the way from Ceerigaabo. The proff. who was coordinating the whole thing,  including the microphone ,Proff. Cabdisalaam,  dean of a collage in Hargeisa. He hails from west Burco community, yet we are hearing from these naysayers in the media. 

This community used to be the ones who accepted the D..r community and its place earlier than any one in Somaliland, yet when they saw some Jeegaan elders tin the Shir , hey reversed and thrown the baby with the bath water. It seems the social media boys are leading the elders which should be the other way around. Despite these I do believe that the majority of the community to be supportive of the D...r agenda. Those of us in Awdal had given the  GHJ led  party a huge support in terms of votes and if they abandon us this time around they might as well kiss goodbye for the next election .

At the end the aim is to save the Somali people from the oligarchs of the south.

 

 

[Old_Observer]

galbedi,

First of all much respect for working on something that is bigger than the day to day face book age waste of time and resources of the people.

You also made it very clear for all the objectives and methods of activities around the conference.

In my view this is equal to one historical conference that determined the fate of the Somali people, in terms of territorial organization for the last 70 years.

The conference was held with support and push of the British Empire. Today's Salamanders had the biggest push on it and todays Puntland and SW were enthusiastic supporters, others neutral and some others totally opposed to it.

Objective of that conference: To form one country for all Somali people except the ones in Djibouti. British Somaliland, Ethiopian Somaliland, Italian Somaliland, British/Kenya Somaliland. French Somaliland not included.

Alighnment of foreign powers:

British Empire: Very enthusiastic and had the connection through British Somaliland where the end product will be friend of the British Empire.

French Empire: They were guaranteed that their later Djibouti, will not be affected, French Somalis will be left out of the project. (Most Somalis agreed to this since the belief that the French are there temporary and when one day they leave the Somalis can be brought to the fold either by splitting Djibouti or some arrangement.

Italian Empire: Was supportive as long as it was guaranteed that its citizens in Somali lands are allowed to leave and own businesses there and not kicked out. Italy did not want the Sicilians returning humiliated from the colonies in Somalia and Eritrea to wreck havoc the homeland in Rome.

Ethiopian Empire: Totally against the project

I do not want to write the stance taken by the Somali people in terms of clans and regions. Suffice to say that strong opposition was from todays Somali state Ethiopia and todays Somalia republic regions some in central some in South. NFD was ok with the project since the British had done some homework and the Somalis that worked from the British Empire side have also done good work.

 

The Addis Ababa conference reminded me of this and went back and did read again some of the 70 year ago conference of the Somali people from all parts.

When I see some of the opposition to the Addis Ababa conference, it looks same. Everyone felt threatened.

Yours is great ideal. In my view you are missing a very fundamental factor. The clans and tribes that opposed the union in the old conference are now for the most part states and regions with real power, organization, militia, foreign relations and foreign friends..etc. In short much stronger than 70 years ago.

My suggestion would have been to choose a base. Djibouti and Somaliland are perfect support bases. But you cannot start by undoing their current status and structures.

You cannot start by wanting Djibouti to be disregarding the Afar and cannot start wanting Somaliland to renounce its current structures. On the contrary you can only start by strengthening and supporting both Djibouti and Somaliland. At the very least that will make them neutral. At most will make them supporters.

Learn from what happened 70 years ago to avoid repeating the same short comings. Situation is the same except now there is 3-4 times the population, 3-4 times the militia, wealth much lower since not many have 300-1000s of camels now, confidence is much lower as the nomadic culture gives way to city life.

 

Other than that its noble idea and noble objective. My comment is based on current realities and past failures.

Since your work is a much longer and coming generations work I can only say great.

 

There is a saying in Xabeshi languages (I dont know which language has the copy write lol): Dropping what you are holding in your arm pit trying to get something over the cupboard.