PM Abiy consolidateding power by inviting affiliate parties to join EPRDF

[Che -Guevara]

 

[Holac]

Smart move that allows him to govern longer and survive attacks from the Amhara.

[Duufaan]

His wife is Amhaaro and she is very much involved. With this he wants to copy Malazawi and rule for ever. Remember this guy was insider. Differences is Malazawi was shopping around from China and Turkey to West and Russia. The Ethiopia economy is already stagnant and effect will be feeler soon.

[maakhiri1]

he will soon chew  more than he can swallow.  My prediction is spectacular BIG fail

[Tillamook]

8 hours ago, maakhiri1 said:

he will soon chew  more than he can swallow.  My prediction is spectacular BIG fail

I agree. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck then it’s most likely Abiy’s miscaliberated ambitions. In short, the man is a non-starter. 

Somalis everywhere should prepare themselves for the eventual and slow collapse of the straw-house that is Ethiopia which Abiy is trying to futilely to lord over. 

Only a clean slate and genuine political reforms that ensure the dignity and freedoms of all Ethiopia’s peoples could possible avoid the calamity that is heading their way. As it stands, Abiy’s games, like Zenawi before him, will only delay the inevitable for a few more years only.

[maakhiri1]

20 minutes ago, Apophis said:

ONLF will get 70 to 100 EPRDP seats in the federal parliament in 2020 according to yestesdays agreement with Abiy. 

 

Out of? 

[Duufaan]

It is Abiya game. ONLf and other organizations can run open election but he will not allow it. What he wants, is to minimize the number of organizations running for the comming election and same time  create one dominant party to grantee his victory.

[Che -Guevara]

38 minutes ago, maakhiri1 said:

Out of? 

547. Somalis currently have 24 seats. Unless the Ethiopian Parliament House numbers are increased, it is very unlikely Onlf will 70 let alone 100.

To put it in perspective. Amhara currently has 130 plus reps in the federal parliament.

 

[Che -Guevara]

Are we talking about party central committee members or the actual parliament?

[galbeedi]

Aphpis ,

despite the so called agreement with Abiy, ONLF is one among  many Somalis. 

There are 38 clans and they are one  of them.

Somalis in the region will decide the future and the numbers..

Abiy had refused to disband the federal system which the Amhara are pushing. Oromo want Finfine or Addis to the mix for the next census using the Addis surrounding region. At the moment, Amhara are 52% of city, and when you add Guraage and others they are the majority.

Magraase and OPDO had insisted on the ethnic federalism and Abiy had to stand with Oromo .

The Tigray are watching all these from their comfortable homes in Makele while also clandestinely sending weapons to others.

[Old_Observer]

On 2/24/2019 at 2:06 PM, Apophis said:

There maybe 300 clans but abiy/Ethiopia made a deal with the clan which was fighting. And irrespective of how we feel, Abiy is dealing with ONLF and ONLF are dealinh with Abiy concerning issues of the region.

I don’t see anyone from the other “38” clans speaking for/fighting for the land.

That view is not helpful. This view was prevalent in 1991-94 and look what happened. Parties like the Somali Democratic League that could have formed a front with ONLF easily were pushed away and had to deal with EPRDF. ONLF was more interested in talks with EPRDF by itself rather than talking with Somali parties first and by themselves.

Whether a certain locality fought with arms or not, its always preferred that ONLF compromises with the Somali parties rather than first with Abiy.

Close alliance with Oromo is almost impossible to achieve anyway. OLF and ONLF have attempted to talk even by presssure of Eritrea, but nothing materialized. From the days of Late Barre to this day no close working relationship has ever succeeded between Somali and Oromo organizations. I don't expect Abiy to be any different.

SPDP and ODP are not any different. It would be ideal if ONLF unites with SPDP. The Somali autonomy would be stronger.

 

 

[Old_Observer]

On 2/24/2019 at 9:55 AM, galbeedi said:

 

Magraase and OPDO had insisted on the ethnic federalism and Abiy had to stand with Oromo .

 

They issued a statement saying Federalism is not up for discussion, untouchable and half of the Abiy Abiy singing got silenced. Some were shocked.

Abiy cannot be seen as weak on Federalism. If he goes against Federalism he might become hero on face book, but will be zero on the ground. Ethiopia cannot survive without autonomy of regions.

 

[Old_Observer]

On 2/24/2019 at 12:04 AM, Che -Guevara said:

Are we talking about party central committee members or the actual parliament?

For parliament there would not be any changes Abiy or anyone can do. Parliament is based on district based which is 100k average constituency, with a minimum of 1 per region like Hareri with small population.

House of federation is set by 1 member for Ethnic and 1 more for every million people of that Ethnic.

Somali has 6 members since is single Ethnic region. Oromo has 30, Afar has 3 since they have 1.5 million Afar and also Argoba Ethnic district. Tigray which is same population as Somali, but has 4 Ethnics so have 9 members.

As for EPRDF they have 4 parties each one has 45 in central committee and 9 each in Executive. If SPDP joins it should be 45 central committee and 9 executive, but EPRDF may change format and reduce the others, but in my view the Somali should only join if equal with the other parties. 5 equal parties it should become.

In the past Oromo very strongly and to some degree Amxara did not want SPDP to join equaly since they were convinced that TPLF, South and Somali will always be one block.