SOLers: This is survey not call to arms.

[Old_Observer]

The battle/competition/campaign for the Somali people and lands is now at feverish level. Whether its direct interest on the ground like UAE and Ethiopia/Kenya or indirect interest of making money as peace keeper/democratizing forces etc.

Djibouti may be forced to withdraw from Somalia sooner than anyone expected.

One of the conditions where Djibouti deployed in Somalia is being changed. Ethiopia taking command of AMISOM was never acceptable to Djibouti or the pre-Abiy Ethiopia. It was a no no. All Somalis in Republic or outside were happy with this condition, even those against AMISOM in principle.

Ethiopia now is seen as "saviour" by Farmaajo government.

Is making Ethiopia/Eritrea command of AMISOM a brilliant move to end AMISOM all together or getting rid of Uganda/Brundi, who seemed fairly neutral in most cases and replacing them by Ethiopia/Eritrea who will always have sides and interference in internal politics of Somalia?

What do you think?

 

[galbeedi]

OO,

let me make it simple.

Djibouti was there in the first place on behalf of Meles Zenawi and to cash on the war on terror. Also, like Musaveni, he sent the senior commanders and other who would have challenged in exile to Beledweyne.

You right, Eritrea and Ethiopia involvement is an strategy for Farmaajo to escape the yolk of the overbearing do nothing UN who may want to  stay in Somalia forever.

Furthermore, the Ugandan dictator want to milk the cash and provide perks to military/offices  through Somalia. The most difficult thing  for Somalia to get back its sovereignty from New York where the security council has full time job talking about Somalia due to the overarching strategy of the treacherous British. Besides, who want 10,000 soldiers hiding in bunkers and getting paid thousands.

Look at Eritrea, the UN couldn't even demarcate small border issues for 20 years. Despite the friendship with Abiy Ahmed , Eritrea has interest in strong Somalia to balance Ethiopia in the region.  Furthermore,  Eritrea could never have been free without Somalia. Afwerk is an old school man who knows honor. He even withdraw from the Arab league calling them useless tribal council.

The Ugandans must go . Djibouti is staying just one town in Hiiraan, and the fat man in Djibouti is making money on the war on terror and must deal with snakes and ostriches he brought to Djibouti ie China and US in one place.

[Old_Observer]

galbeedi,

You underestimate Ghelleh and overestimate Isayas.

One fact of nature (Geography) is that Djibouti is 100 times more strategic and cost effective than Eritrea.

Ghelleh is also many times smarter than Isayas.

What do you mean honour? The people of Sudan had hosted half a million Eritreans for more than a quarter century and as soon as Eritrea got independence, Isayas upon admiration from Clinton supported South Sudan, closed Sudan Embassy, accused Sudan of Islamic terrorism, hosted more than 4 Darfur rebels...you name it. Later on was even worst, accusing Sudan of being Tigray.

Still now, Sudan has not done anything against Eritrea/Ethiopia, but Eritrea on assignment from UAE/Saudi/Egypt is doing everything to disrupt  Turkish plans of development that is good even for Eritrea.

[galbeedi]

OO,

you raised a good point about Eritrean presence in Sudan. I have met many Eritreans who told me that they were born in Sudan while in exile. I also remember Isiais Afwork attacking everyone in his neighborhood.

Djibouti is strategic for Ethiopia and there is already infrastructure, but the Northern Ethiopian region are closer to Assab, Eritrea. Also, the Amhara want to get back Eritrea through business and population exchange. The trade from Tigray to Eritrea has increased tremendously . Eritrea was closed for 20 years and a lot of local goods are traveling from Ethiopia.

OO, why you don't tell us about the Tigray diaspora media longing to join Eritrea, is this just a dream or reality?

[Che -Guevara]

Amhara are dreaming of days gone by. It's rather wierd Abiy is attacking Oromo while Amhara are arming themselves.

[Dahireeto]

I heard Abiy is actually Oromized Amahara guy. All his actions lately make sense if you consider that. 

[Old_Observer]

1 hour ago, galbeedi said:

OO,

you raised a good point about Eritrean presence in Sudan. I have met many Eritreans who told me that they were born in Sudan while in exile. I also remember Isiais Afwork attacking everyone in his neighborhood.

Djibouti is strategic for Ethiopia and there is already infrastructure, but the Northern Ethiopian region are closer to Assab, Eritrea. Also, the Amhara want to get back Eritrea through business and population exchange. The trade from Tigray to Eritrea has increased tremendously . Eritrea was closed for 20 years and a lot of local goods are traveling from Ethiopia.

OO, why you don't tell us about the Tigray diaspora media longing to join Eritrea, is this just a dream or reality?

 

Some might wish, but is not possible. Both are so competitive, they will always compete to dominate others. They have been separated for almost 150 years and grown apart. 

Its like the Somali in Djibouti and the Somali in NFD. Have been apart for more than a century and grown different. The one advantage both Tigray's have is if need be they can come together in a very short time since they still have a lot of intermarriages of VIPs.

They are both competing who dominates Ethiopia. Ethiopia Tigray have advantage of being Ethiopian, Eritrea Tigray have advantage of having a country they completely/absolutely dominate and can rent it sell it or loan it to anyone who can pay or wants. Eritrea Tigray are mistreating other Ethnic and faiths. That will be their downfall the same way the Amxara fell in Ethiopia. Tigray Ethiopia may be dominating in business and intelligence/security works, but are relatively  better as relates to Ethnicity, faith and language, better than Amxara, Oromo or others for sure.

 

 

[Old_Observer]

26 minutes ago, Dahireeto said:

I heard Abiy is actually Oromized Amahara guy. All his actions lately make sense if you consider that. 

For the most part, he does not have a base he can solidly rely upon. Both Oromo and Amxara suspect him. Being secretive and too close to Eritrea is also not helping. The business community wants Djibouti and Somalia. He is having a hard time making Eritrea no.1 for Ethiopia.

Everybody knows there are problems in Eritrea, that can explode anytime. There are deep problems that are now hidden by absolute dictatorship and total control of media and communications. Other Ethnics, except Tigrays are out of power and oppressed culturally, worst of all even faiths.

 

[Old_Observer]

43 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

Amhara are dreaming of days gone by. It's rather wierd Abiy is attacking Oromo while Amhara are arming themselves.

Amxara have worst internal problem. Everything is fake. The census is fake, unity is fake and the greatness is fake. They are trying to focus on Oromo and Tigray to hide the problems, but cannot be hidden. The border area with Sudan had civil war between Agew and Amxara. Addis Ababa is becoming center of fight between Oromo and Amxara as well.

Its very unfortunate the Somali is also at his weakest at the wrong time.

[Che -Guevara]

I always wondered how true is Ethiopian census. There's new census coming.

Kenyans had a problem with Somali numbers in their last census.

[Old_Observer]

On 2/5/2019 at 10:37 PM, Che -Guevara said:

I always wondered how true is Ethiopian census. There's new census coming.

Kenyans had a problem with Somali numbers in their last census.

Census is a game everywhere. Especially where numbers are basis for money distribution.

In Ethiopia its also Ethnic loaded. For the Amxara its even double loaded. The Oromo and Amxara are both close to 50 million each lol. Few things are agreed by everybody.

The Somali have highest increase and Tigray has lowest increase in population.

You can never have correct Ethnic mix numbers in Amxara since they intimidate everyone to say they are Amxara.

The religious mix/percentages is fairly correct for Orthodox and Moslems, the rest being so many versions of Protestant.

Census even in the USA is just estimate when you consider the wild estimates of illegals they debate. You would think child births and deaths are all recorded with all the technology, but census is census since cities get federal money based on numbers. Some states had electorate more than the population lol.

 

[Old_Observer]

America also wants to end AMISOM, but in a radically different way than most people expect.

Most us think that America wants to replace others with Eritrea and Ethiopia. That is only the wish and plan of Arabs.

America wants to transfer to Somalis, where the federal government is weak. Since America believes that any other group can push it out easily from Somalia; example Turkey, Britain and even Saudis and Egypt indirectly.

Here is what the commander of AFRICOM said:

AFRICOM said in a Friday release that it plans to keep working "with its partners to transfer the responsibility for the long-term security in Somalia from AMISOM to the Federal Government of Somalia and its Member States."

Member states can now expect working with USA. The more things change the more they stay the same. AMISOM over time became too European and less American. Its not as bad as going Chinese or Russian, but European is also not acceptable to USA.

 

[Che -Guevara]

American goal in the Horn has changed. They are trying to edge out the Chinese and would want permanent presence in the Somali proper.

[Old_Observer]

On 2/8/2019 at 10:51 PM, Che -Guevara said:

American goal in the Horn has changed. They are trying to edge out the Chinese and would want permanent presence in the Somali proper.

Basically agree, but Americans do not want to pay for it. Trump has radically changed the system. America will be everywhere as long as there is someone paying for it.

Who will pay for Somalia is a big question.