if municipal and parliamentary elections are held in Somaliland, Faysal Waraabe and UCID will be finished.

[galbeedi]

The biggest obstacle to hold the municipal and parliament elections in Somaliland is The UCID party and its chairman Faysal Cali Waraabe. It is clear like the water. 

 

In order to keep the election from taking place Faysal Waraabe has been playing a game of chicken on both the ruling Kulmiye and the main opposition Wadani party. His erratic behavior  and moving of the goal post from left and right had confused many people in Somaliland including me. I was one of those duped by Waraabe more than once. 

 

Last time I saw him engaging Somali issues and other important issues neglected by Kulmiye, and mistakenly, I  called him the man of the hour or worse the main shaker of politics in Somaliland. I thought he was serious about elections and reform. Most of all I thought he would be acting like a natural opposition party that calls to account the ruling party. All that moves were smoke screen and an effort to delay the election and confuse people. Almost everyone in Somaliland thinks of him as a joke.

 

Time is against UCID and chairman Faysal Waraabe.  I have no doubt that  if an election is held in  Somaliland, it  will finish off UCID and Faysal for good. In the last election , he got 5% of the vote. 90% of that vote was from his home town of South Hargeisa. He got only 500 votes in Awdal thanks to deputy leader C/nasir Buuni and his campaign. This time around he might not even get a hundred. He has zero support in Bebera, Sanaag, Awdal, Hargeisa city,  except the Sand Dwellers South Hargeisa. He got few votes from Sool because of the young running mate INa Abyan who hails from Laascaanood.

 

If election is held UCID could be wiped  from the parliament other than two or three from South Hargeisa. Last time around , it was the financial help and efforts of Jamaal Cali Huseen and C/rashiid Hassan Mataan that saved UCID from being eliminated. They got huge votes that made them among the top three from Awdal, Saaxil, Hargeisa and Todheer, and he repaid by colluding with Kulmiye after he has been bought by the Djibouti family. Who knows the charismatic Jamaal could have been an alternative to Biixi and Cirro. This time around there will be  no one to prop up the chairman and his own business called UCID.

 

Some people believe that in order for UCID to survive Faysal might sell  his business to the highest  bidders , possibly some one from east Burco community. Even those who would have purchased the party worry that he might renege his promise and litigate them.

 

Some people I talked to say that in order for Somaliland to hold elections and get the opposition it deserves, we must kill and finish off UCID for good. I urge the Wadani party to fight hard and eliminate this party from the political stage in order to wage clean and credible campaign. Even Kulmiye who needs real opposition party to challenge must kick this carpet beggar to the curb. In fact , some Kulmiye operatives had attacked him so hard , and  had forced him to shut up  and  join the government program. They got the secret. Faysal can't take a bunch of public scolding, so I urge the Wadani leadership to attack him and expose his fraud.

 

I do not know why Kulmiye is afraid of appointing new election commissioners. If these are impartial civil servants changing them and reassigning them  wouldn't be a big deal unless they are people who were put their to do mischief and the bidding of the government . Also, it is imperative to amend and modernize the methods these commissioners are appointed. The best solution is to allow every party to appoint three NEC officials. The idea of allowing the president to appoint 2 and then add some more through his party and the Guurti is unacceptable.Make the commission nine as proposed by the opposition and each party must nominate three.

 

The ruling Kulmiye should not be worried about elections whether it is parliament or municipal.  Unlike Ucid, the ruling party has a  base that will vote for them regardless of the size and they shouldn't drag  the idea of holding election. Yet, the first order of the day for all is to hold these elections and bury UCID and it's charlatan  Faysal Waraabe. 

 

This week a rising star in the party , deputy chair C/naasir Buuni had resigned after Faysal objected the idea of agreeing with  the other opposition and holding elections. Faysal usually picks young and inexperienced people for  fake posts like deputy, chair, youth leader,  secretary or other insignificant posts. He doesn't have a leadership council  or an executive that debates the positions of  the party takes on major issues like election. Unfortunately, Mr. Buuni kept talking about holding elections which could eliminate Faysal Waraabe from stage. Buuni was willing to stand up to Faysal on elections, ethics and the interest of his base and constituency. Unlike Faysal, Buuni has a good future in politics for years to come. 

Here is Buuni the UCID deputy talking about the inability of the leader to take stand on issues.

Somaliland needs to hold the municipal elections and open the political process for new players. The international donors must hold this renegade party  and its chairman to be accountable and call him out as spoiler who throws unnecessary obstacles which   deny the people their legitimate rights. The Somaliland parliament had passed already a resolution that calls the disbanding of the local mayors who had done nothing meaningful for seven years including collecting garbage from the streets.

 

The time has come to eliminate the double talking Faysal Waraabe from the stage. 

[maakhiri1]

And why ruling party does not want election?

[galbeedi]

While Kulmiye has base that had voted for him last time around, most of the men that had helped him during the campaign are out and angry. The opposition will not only get his main voters of the last election , but also might expand more. Wadani has to go only up. 

Furthermore, a new parliament dominated by the opposition will be bad news. They could challenge his budgets and other moves. For Biixi , the status quo is what he wants. Besides, while he is still angry about the way the opposition treated him after the election, he doesn't want any thing gives the opposition more power.

[Suldaanka]

Galbeedi,

You are basing your analysis on current dynamics. Which may not hold true come after the two largest Political Parties hold their National Conferences in the next few months, Feb for Kulmiye and April for Waddani. 

If as many are predicting Muse Bixi has his way,  East Burao will miss out on the Chairman for the Party.  There is only two possililities, a Reer Saaxil or Reer Awdal. Reer Saaxil are determined to block East Burao from returninig to the top job.

If this scenario holds true,  it will throw a spanner in the works as East Burao folks will no longer be a secured voting block for Kulmiye and may actually prove the wild-card in the next election. And considering Xirsi Haji Adan holds a leadership role in Waddani, it may be that they will lean towards Waddani Party.  

Maxamoud Xashi is also rumoured to be making a deal with Faysal Cali Waraabe for the leadership of UCID. 

It is going to be very interesting few months coming as that will shape up the Somaliland politics for the next 5 years. 

[maakhiri1]

3 hours ago, Suldaanka said:

Galbeedi,

You are basing your analysis on current dynamics. Which may not hold true come after the two largest Political Parties hold their National Conferences in the next few months, Feb for Kulmiye and April for Waddani. 

If as many are predicting Muse Bixi has his way,  East Burao will miss out on the Chairman for the Party.  There is only two possililities, a Reer Saaxil or Reer Awdal. Reer Saaxil are determined to block East Burao from returninig to the top job.

If this scenario holds true,  it will throw a spanner in the works as East Burao folks will no longer be a secured voting block for Kulmiye and may actually prove the wild-card in the next election. And considering Xirsi Haji Adan holds a leadership role in Waddani, it may be that they will lean towards Waddani Party.  

Maxamoud Xashi is also rumoured to be making a deal with Faysal Cali Waraabe for the leadership of UCID. 

It is going to be very interesting few months coming as that will shape up the Somaliland politics for the next 5 years. 

When was the last time municipal and parliamentary elections held? what is going on? Something is out of order,

[Suldaanka]

1 minute ago, maakhiri1 said:

When was the last time municipal and parliamentary elections held? what is going on? Something is out of order,

Municipal elections were last held in 2012. Parliamentary elections has been delayed multiple times. 

Parliamentary elections is a politically charged issue. As Somaliland moves away from clans, (Yet clans are not ready for this move), it has to find an equitable and fair power distribution. Both President Daahir Rayaale and Siilaanyo hand balled making a decision on this. Now it is President Muse Bihi to bite the bullet and get something on the table. I am hearing that there is some options on the table which will not be final but will be used to get the new Parliamentary elections happening. 

 

[galbeedi]

Suldaanka,

As I said, he might sell the party to the east Burco pays, and the only guys with money are Hersi Gaab and Mohamuud Hashi.

I would open up parties during municipal election and create a new opposition party.

[Tallaabo]

On 1/21/2019 at 12:05 AM, Suldaanka said:

Municipal elections were last held in 2012. Parliamentary elections has been delayed multiple times. 

Parliamentary elections is a politically charged issue. As Somaliland moves away from clans, (Yet clans are not ready for this move), it has to find an equitable and fair power distribution. Both President Daahir Rayaale and Siilaanyo hand balled making a decision on this. Now it is President Muse Bihi to bite the bullet and get something on the table. I am hearing that there is some options on the table which will not be final but will be used to get the new Parliamentary elections happening. 

 

Suldaankoow, holding regular parliamentary elections would not be an issue if the corrupt power-hungry politicians don't make it an issue. Somaliland does not need to reinvent the wheel to elect its parliamentarians on an equitable basis. What needs to be done first is to conduct a corruption free national census and issue the biometric ID cards to all the citizens and residents in the country. All the states, counties, cities, and villages should be required by the constitution to maintain a registrar office with records about their respective populations such as the number of residents, all the births, deaths, marriages, divorces, etc. In this age of information technology and powerful computers at everyone's fingertips there are no excuses for ignorance about such important matters as the number of people living in the country. 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Faisal  will survive he survived so many times he  will survive again.

[Suldaanka]

16 hours ago, Tallaabo said:

Suldaankoow, holding regular parliamentary elections would not be an issue if the corrupt power-hungry politicians don't make it an issue. Somaliland does not need to reinvent the wheel to elect its parliamentarians on an equitable basis. What needs to be done first is to conduct a corruption free national census and issue the biometric ID cards to all the citizens and residents in the country. All the states, counties, cities, and villages should be required by the constitution to maintain a registrar office with records about their respective populations such as the number of residents, all the births, deaths, marriages, divorces, etc. In this age of information technology and powerful computers at everyone's fingertips there are no excuses for ignorance about such important matters as the number of people living in the country. 

I think the only politician that had a vision for Somaliland was Mohamed Xaji Ibrahim Egal. Everyone agrees that he was not there for fame or money,  he was there to put the foundations of a state. And for close to 20 years, we have survived because of his few ideas that he put forward.

There was no one that actually revisited those ideas and either improved on it or suggested new ones. We are at a critical time to re-evaluate where we are at. We need to reform the system holistically. 

We need to find a way to make the Parliamenterians affect the political landscape. At the moment, they are just there as a rubberstamp, yes they make laws but they won't have any affect on direction of the Executive. 

I would suggest that, if the Political Party of the seating President gets less than 50% in parliament, that should trigger a new Presidential election in 6 months after. Equally, if a Political Party doesn't get a minimum of  1 seat from each region, then that should also trigger for local elections to get a new national political Party. By doing this, both the Executive and Political Parties will be worry about the Parliamanent results. Which will translate more voice to the districts that these Parliamentarians came from.  

The Political Parties themselves need to be reviewed on how they elect their leadership including their candidates. I think a members only caucus election should do the trick from each regional capital, much like US nomination process. This should be handled by the NEC. 

The National Electrocal Commision (NEC) needs to be reviewed. It needs to be as trust worthy and as representative as it can get. Not the lopsided one that we currently have. 

By making the Path to Power as clear and corruption free as we can make it possible, then a lot of what we have learned from the current system can be fixed. 

The Test, Feedback, Review model cycle should be adapted. 

[Tallaabo]

7 hours ago, Suldaanka said:

I think the only politician that had a vision for Somaliland was Mohamed Xaji Ibrahim Egal. Everyone agrees that he was not there for fame or money,  he was there to put the foundations of a state. And for close to 20 years, we have survived because of his few ideas that he put forward.

There was no one that actually revisited those ideas and either improved on it or suggested new ones. We are at a critical time to re-evaluate where we are at. We need to reform the system holistically. 

We need to find a way to make the Parliamenterians affect the political landscape. At the moment, they are just there as a rubberstamp, yes they make laws but they won't have any affect on direction of the Executive. 

I would suggest that, if the Political Party of the seating President gets less than 50% in parliament, that should trigger a new Presidential election in 6 months after. Equally, if a Political Party doesn't get a minimum of  1 seat from each region, then that should also trigger for local elections to get a new national political Party. By doing this, both the Executive and Political Parties will be worry about the Parliamanent results. Which will translate more voice to the districts that these Parliamentarians came from.  

The Political Parties themselves need to be reviewed on how they elect their leadership including their candidates. I think a members only caucus election should do the trick from each regional capital, much like US nomination process. This should be handled by the NEC. 

The National Electrocal Commision (NEC) needs to be reviewed. It needs to be as trust worthy and as representative as it can get. Not the lopsided one that we currently have. 

By making the Path to Power as clear and corruption free as we can make it possible, then a lot of what we have learned from the current system can be fixed. 

The Test, Feedback, Review model cycle should be adapted. 

100% agree with this idea or similar ones like having a new hybrid model which brings together the British parliamentary system and our presidential system. In this new system, at the time of the municipal elections the three political parties which end up controlling the largest number of town halls automatically become the three national parties. Then during a general election the party which gets the largest number of seats in Parliament gets its chairman to become the president of Somaliland. In this way presidential candidates will fight for every local municipal seat and every parliamentary seat from every district in the country.