“Dhaqaalaha Somaliland Miyuu Kobcay 10 Kii Sanno Ee La Soo Dhaafay Mise Hoos Buu U Dhacay?” Prof. Adam Ismail (Adanweli)

[Deeq A.]

Dad badan ayaa kurma arrinta, in badana waxbaa la I waydiiyay su’aashan markaa bal aan isku dayo inaan si kooban uga hadlo dhaqaalaha Somaliland 10kii sano ee aynu soo dhaafnay (2008 – 2018).

Koboca dhaqaalaha (economic growth) waxa lagu ogaadaa dhawr arrimood:

1.Wax iibsiga macmiisha.

2.Adeegyada bulshada.

3.Shaqo abuurka.

4.Miisaaniyada dawlada.

5.Maalgashiga Iwm.

Dhaqaalaheenu waa mid inagu kooban inaga oo aan waafaqsanayn qaar ka mid farsamooyinka caalamka lagu ogaado koboca dhaqaalaha. Tusaale, ma jirto xogo sheegaya awooda wax iibsiga macmiisha (consumer spending). Sidoo kale ma jirto xogo rasmi ah oo qeexaya dakhliga iyo wax soo saarka dalka (GDP and per capita output). Mida kale ma jirto xog dhab ah oo ku salaysan qiyaasta sicir bararka (inflation rate) iyo dulsaarka bangiyadu bixiyaan (interest rates) marka laga saaro macluumaad aan hufnayn oo ay soo ururiyaan Wasaaradaha Ganacsiga, Maaliyada iyo Qorshayntu.

Waxa kale oo aan iyana la haynin dheelli-tirka ganacsiga aynu is dhaafsano waddamada kale (trade balance) sida Itoobiya oo ah waddanka inaga hela dakhliga ugu wayn isla markaana inaga qaata lacagta ugu badan ee adag ee dalkeena ka dhoofta (flight of hard currency) kuna baxda: Qaadka, Khudrada, Jaamacadaha, Sibidhka, Xoolaha iwm. Waxa lagu qiyaasaa lacagta Itoobiya sannadkii inaga qaado ilaa $670 Malyuun.

Hadaba hadii aynu ku soo noqono su’aasha ah dhaqaalaha Somaliland ma koray 10kii sano ee aynu soo dhaafnay? Jawaabtu waa haa in kasta oo ay adagtay in qiyaas dhab ah lagu sugo arrintan, hadana waxa loo malaynayaa inuu dhaqaalaheenu kobcay mudadaa aynu soo sheegnay guud ahaan inta u dhaxaysa 6% ilaa 9% sannadkiiba.

1.WAX IIBSIGA MACMIISHA (CONSUMER SPENDING).

Waxa aan shaki ku jirin in uu wax iibsiga macmiishu xoog u kordhay 10 sano ee la soo dhaafay sida ka muuqata arrimaha hoos ku qoran:

u- Waxay macmiishu dhisatay guryo tiro badan oo keenay inay magaalooyinku u fidaan dhinac kasta. Waxa lagu qiyaasaa inay magaalooyinka dalku 35% fideen.

– Waxa la dhistay rugo ganacsi oo waawayn (shopping malls) oo laga dukaansado.

– Toban sano ka hor gaadidka dalka jooga tiradiisu wuxu ahaa 36,000. Maantana waxay kor u dhaafeen 100,000 taa micnaheedu waxa weeye tirada gaadiidku waxay korodhay 277%.

2.WAX IIBSIGA ADEEGYADA (SERVICES SECTOR).

Maadaama dhaqaalaha dalku kobcayay waxay bulshadu awood u heshay inay iibsato adeegyo tiro badan sida ku xusan halkan:

– Waxa dalka ka jira in ka badan 6 shirkadood oo diyaaradaha ah oo duulimaadyo kala duwan sameeya, halka ay 2008 kii jireen 2 diyaaradood, waxana kordhay ilaa 300%.

– Waxa dalkan laga hirgeliyay in ka badan 15 hudheel oo waawayn iyo meherado kale ayaa la furay. 2008 kii waxa ka jiray dalka ilaa 5 oo waawayn, waxan kordhay ilaa 300%.

– Waxa dalka laga furay in ka badan ilaa 13 rugo caafimaad ama dhakhtar iyo xarumo caafimaad oo waawayn, halka 2008 kii ay jireen 4 rugo caafimaad waxana kordhay 325%.

– Dhinaca waxbarashada waxa ku dhacay koboc wayn taas oo keentay in ilaa 19 Jaamacadadood oo cusub laga furay iyo weliba dugsiyo tiro badan, halka 2008 kii ay jireen 7 Jaamacadood, waxana kordhay 271%.

– Dhinaca adeega Isgaadhsiinta, maanta waxa telefoon haysta dad ka badan 920,000 oo qof halka 2008 lagu qiyaasi jiray ilaa 160,000. Waxa ku kordhay 575%.

– Dhinaca Bangiyada 2008 dalka kama ay jirin wax bangiyo ah oo gaar loo leeyahay, maanatana waxa ka jira ilaa 4 Bangi.

3.SHAQO ABUURKA (EMPLOYMENT SECTOR).

Shaqo abuurka iyo shaqaalayntu waa astaamaha lagu garto inuu dhaqaalaha dal uu kobcay iyo in kale, waxana loo qaybiyaa shaqaalaha dawliga ah (public sector employees) iyo kuwa gaarka ah (private sector employees). Koboca dhaqaalaha dalku 10 kii sano ee la soo dhaafay wuxu keenay in labada dhinacba ay kordhaan shaqaalaha loo qaatay:

– Dhinaca dawlada tirada shaqaalahu (marka laga reebo ciidamada) wuxu ahaa ilaa 6,800 maantana waa 14,000 taas oo micnaheedu yahay waxa ku kordhay 205%.

– Dhinaca private ka ma jirto tiro sugani lakin waxa lagu qiyaasaa inuu xoog u kordhay marka la eego inta ganacsi ee furmay mudadaa 10 sano ah.

4.MIISAANIYADA DAWALADA (GOVERNMENT BUDGET).

Miisaaniyada ay dawladu isticmaashaa waa astaan kale oo lagu garto dhaqaalaha sida uu u kobcayo, tani waxay ku dhisantahay dakhliga dawlada oo la kordhaysa dhaqaalaha. Hadii aanu dhaqaaluhu kobcayn waxay ku kelifaysaa dawladu si ay miisaaniyad u hesho inay kordhiso cashuurta.

– Hadii aynu eegno 10 sano ka hor miisaaniyada dawladu waxay ahayd $42 Malyuun oo doolar, maantana waxa lagu qiyaasaa inay tahay $360 Malyuun. Taa micnaheedu waxa weeyey waxa ku kordhay ilaa 857%.

5.MAALGASHIGA (INVESTMENT).

Maalgashigu wuxu ka mid yahay waxyaalaha lagu ogaado korodhka iyo koboca dhaqaalaha. Somaliland waxa 10 kii sano ee la soo dhaafay ka dhacay maalgashi ballaadhan oo ay shirkado gudaha ah, kuwo debeda ah iyo hay’ado caalami ahi ku sameeyeen, waxana ka mid ah kuwan:

– Coca Cola: $17 Malyuun.

– DAI (USAID): $33 Malyuun.

– SBF (World Bank): $23 Malyuun.

– SDF (Multi-donor): $65 Malyuun.

– Kuwait: $14 Malyuun.

– GIZ/KFW: $63 Malyuun.

– UAE: $92 Malyuun

– Intan waxa soo raaca dhaqaale badan oo dalka soo geliyaan hay’ado ay ka mid yihiin DFID, NRC, DRC, ARC, UNDP, UNICEF Iwm.

DP World: weli lacagtii maalgashiga ahayd ee ay ku ballanqaaday may gelin dalka. Waxa muhiim ah in la xuso $442 Malyuun ee la sheego DP World ma wada gelinayso dalka. Waxay gelinaysaa $225 Malyuun (51%). Labada saami ee kala waxa kala leh Somaliland ($132 Malyuun 30% oo loogu qiimeeyay dekedii disnayd) iyo Itoobiya ($83 Malyuun 19%), ilaa iminka lama garanayo Itoobiya wakhtiga ee keenayso saamigeeda iyo sifaha ay u bixinayso lacagta.

Si kasataba ha ahaatee waxa aan shaki ku jirin inuu dhalaaha dalku si wayn u kobcay 10 kii sano ee aynu soo dhaafnay marka lagu eego indho dhaqaale yahan. Waxase aanu shaki ku jirin in la kala tegay oo ay dadka wax haystaa sii xoogaysteen kuwii aan wax haysanina aanay wax badani u kordhin, waana arrin loo baahanyahay inay xukuumadu fiiro gaar ah u yeelato. Sababta oo ah hadii xeedhada gacanta la wada gelin oo kobaca dhaqaalaha ay in gaar ahi dareento waa waxyaalaha keena kacdoonka iyo burburka.

CARQALADAHA MUSTAQBALKA
In kasta oo uu sida aynu sheegnay dhaqaalaha dalku sameeyay koboc ballaadhan hadana waxa jira carqalado loo baahanyahay in wax laga qabto si dhaqaalahu u sii kobco bulshaduna ka hesho waxtar noloshooda wax ka bedela. Hadaba talooyin wax lagaga qaban karo carqaladahaas ayaan soo jeedinayaa:

– Cashuuraha waa in la khafiifiyaa gaar ahaan waxyaalaha daruuriga ah si ganacsatadu aanay u qaali garayn maciishada iyo agabka muhiimka ah (less tax for essential goods).

– In la sameeyo sharciyada khuseeya koboca ganacsiga sida: Xeerka Maalgashiga iyo ka Maxaliga ah (domestic investment law) iyo wax ka bedelka Xeerka Maalgashiga Dibeda (foreign investment law).

– In la sameeyo Xeerka Kala Xadaynta Ganacsiga (commercial code).

– In La sameeyo Xeer joojinaya kootada cido gaar ah ganacsiga loogu xidhayo (anti-monopoly legislation).

– In dadka la baro xirfado ay ku shaqaysan karaan (employable skills).

– In la xakameeyo sicir bararka iyo hoos u dhaca lacagta dalka (tackling inflation and Somaliland Shilling depreciation).
– In la furfuro dhaqaalaha oo la kaabo ganacsatada taas oo keeni doonta koboc/shaqo abuur baahsan (quantitative easing).
– In la xoojiyo wax soo saarka gudaha si loo yareeyo in wax kasta la soo dejiyo (increase local production to reduce imports).
– In la xoojiyo kaabayaasha dhaqaalaha sicda waddooyinka, garoomada diyaaradaha, dekedaha, laydhka iyo biyaha iwm (economic infrastructure).

– Waa in xoolaha aynu dhoofino la tayeeyaa isla markaana suuq loo helaa (quality of our livestock must be improved and export markets found).

– In la dagaalanka musuqa baahsan laga dhigto mudnaanta koowaad (fighting against corruption must be made number 1 priority).

– In horumarka dhaqaaluhu wada gaadho gobolada dalka oo dhan (economic development must reach in all regions).

– In la dardar geliyo xeerarka soo jiidanaya maalgashiga iyo ganacsiga, derejada uu Bangiga Adduunku (World Bank) siiyo ka-ganacsiga dalalka (doing business rating) oo ka kooban ilaa 183 dal wuxuu Somaliland ka dhigay dalka 176aad.

Ilaahay ha ina waafajiyo talada toosan.

Somaliland Guul !!!

Prof. Adam Ismail (aadanweli)

Facebook: aadanweli

Twitter: @aadanweli

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