Farmaajo is trying to deploy Ethiopian forces throught Somalia including Mudug, Tukaraq and Bay

[galbeedi]

Lately, there was a lot of talk about the incoming union (probably economic) between Somalia and Ethiopia.

let us focus the Ethiopian-Somalia issue and the new incoming union , albeit economic , plans of prime minister Abiy Ahmed and  the reasons behind his political rhetoric.. Certainly Somalia,  with huge coast and business oriented populace , could take advantage of any economic union if Ethiopia opens up its borders for trade. I was always one of those who believed that an open Ethiopia would create huge opportunity for Somalis to trade with  the millions who are our remediate neighbors. Yet, opening the door for the people of  Ethiopia to trade with millions of Somalis who are business  oriented and free wheeling might expose their people with different concepts that could threaten their grip in power. Opening up means tens of millions of Oromo in the south east and west would be trading with Somalis and other and building connections  that will weaken,  and at the end,  eliminate the old Ethiopia controlled by Orthodox highlanders. In fact, Somalis would be the winners of trade liberalization with Ethiopia. Open trade and intermingling from the Somalis will alter the  Ethiopia trade and political landscape sooner than we might think. Trade will concentrate to the south eastern regions were millions of Oromo and Somalis live creating new wealth and opportunities. Also, the free wheeling Somali nomad who doesn't care about the value of the money will certainly influence the way of life of others in the region.

 

Before 1991, the Kenyan trade and investment was dominated by British, Indians and others before Somalis arrived and opened this for the Sawahili. What soldiers and wars could not change or alter for centuries  in Ethiopia will be dismantled by open trade, and like many people , I do not believe that Ethiopia will take that risk. Also,  before that open trade, they must open the border just a  little bit for the Somali border communities that badly needed to trade with their brethren from the other side. 

 

In my opinion,   Ethiopia is broke. Abiy is going around the world  to find cash to  make the shortcomings of basic government operations. The TPLF had looted the country for the last four years sensing the upcoming change. Of course the fat gulf boys are throwing some money and he is planning to borrow from world bank and IMF. That foreign money is intended to  stabilize the system,  but the withdrawal of the Chinese investment , the dismantling of Mohamed Al-Amoudi empire, the drying of foreign aid by Trump and many sudden changes in foreign run companies will stagnate the economy for a while. Abiy is trying hard to recover most of that money with difficulty.  In fact, an Ethiopian businessman told me that it was the division among the Tigray elite which was one of the major reasons that Hailemaruim  Desalegn regime has faltered. The faction led by the wife of  Meles was sidelined and purged, and now she is telling all the secrets to Abiy.

 

 

The old ways of doing things are changing around the world. The new wars of the world will be  mostly economic wars. Technology has changed the way we live and trade. For example,   America want to ship its liquefied natural gas (LNG) with ships and sell to western Europe and reduce Russian dependence. In order to overcome these cash shortages, Abiy and his team had put their eyes on  Somalia and the Somali region of Ethiopia. The Somali jewel and land has all the natural, mineral and the huge coast in both the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. We are like a donkey  who doesn't know the gold or the expensive valuables he is carrying. Abiy and Ethiopia want to access the natural gas and the oil inside the Somali region and export them while avoiding Somali waters and land. 

 

When you research and look back how the Somali region was transfer to Ethiopia in 1948 and 1954,  you will be shocked that it wasn't all about horse trading between the Ethiopian king and the British empire about control of the land and  Abyssinian expansion.. A little known oil exploration  done by the British in early fifties had convinced the  King to keep this land for himself. As soon as Meles consolidated power in early 1998, , he begun to drill the land that already been marked as block's of reserves long ago without any major exploration. 

 

Furthermore, the agreement reached between Mohamed Bin Sayed of United Arab Emirate, Isayas Afwork of Eritrea and Abiy Ahmed calls the building of a pipe lines that will  carry the Somali region crude oil for export and refining in Eritrean ports. The UAE want to invest a pipeline that is stretched thousands of kilometers of  mountainous trains in the north and crisscrossing rivers in the Ethiopia interior while a direct line to Berbera or Djibouti could cost a quarter of that distance and cost less. It will take less than five  hours of highway drive to reach Bebera from interiors of the Somali region, yet, these guys had decided to by pass the Somali controlled regions of Somaliland and Puntland for pipeline investment and export. Even Boosaaso is less than 700km to the oil blocks north of Wardheer, while Berbera is less than 500km from these area.

 

As you can see the main beneficiaries of these economic and political moves are not Somalis but others.

 

Now, what would Farmaajo getting from these talk of future unions and the long term economic gains of both Ethiopia and Eritrea.

 

As I said many times in these pages that there is  no short cut for nation building and resorting the national sovereignty. We all know that we lost our independence and sovereignty in 1991, and that freedom of having your own state and live as a free men and women will not come back easily without sacrifices. Bribing, horse trading and cutting deals for the next regional leader , meeting of the parliament or replacement of one man to another will not cut it. At the moment, everyone is talking about regional governments losing the Ethiopian diplomatic and security guarantees. It is true that these new arrangements are some of the  fruits and  small gains that  Farmaajo can boast about it, yet it doesn't change the security situation and the big picture. Ma maqasheen " ninbaa waxar, neef geel ah looga bedeshay".  Galmudug , Hiiraan and South West governments already reside in Mogadishu. In Jubba, Madoobe was put their by the TPLF and with blessings of the Kenyans. In fact, those who are trying to replace Madoobe are based in Nairobi and would not change much about the Kenyan policy of keeping that land. The Kenyans had no intension of going any where even if Amisom withdraws from Somalia  since they didn't came to Somlia with the UN or African union mandate  in the first place.

 

Also, do not be sidetracked by the departure of old TPLF rebels who were residing in these false diplomatic postings to make money. Most of them are aging and  old rebel generals who were retired in these Somali regions to make some cash from the local Somalis . Nothing will change that. In Mogadishu , general Gabre left , yet he was replaced by more dangerous and insider Somali from Dayniile community who arranged the transfer of Qalbi Dgagax. He lives full time in Villa Somalia. So, please, do not get confused by these fireworks intended to mesmerize Somalis while advancing bigger agenda.

 

 

I will be the first to admit that Farmaajo has done some good things. He created a competent civil servant and administrative government in the green zone controlled by the government , he brought certain prestige to the office of the president and people could be removed from office regardless of who they are if they fail their duties.  Yet, The main issue is not about what Farmaajo has done , but what he hasn't done or what he was unable to do. For  a government based in quarter of the capital with controlled check points,  it can easily monitor what goes inside that manned green zone. It is like a manager circulating in his warehouse or visiting every  booth. Khayre can visit government ministries like a principle that goes to classes and scolding the students which doesn't change much. 

 

His government is unable to improve the security situation in the capital or build a national army. The president is still guarded by the Amisom troops  without  no any significant Somali military personal in the horizon. Regardless of what we think, there is no Somali army to stabilize the capital let alone the country.  Knowledgeable people told us that this shortcomings or the lack of building and organizing Somali security force isn't the fault of president Farmaajo. They say regardless of who is  the president, the system that was  set up by the UN and Amisom is expected to fail. IN other words, you can't have two governments in the country. In fact, it could be even bigger than a foreign trust ship Somalia had between 1956-60 in Somalia by the Italians. At least back then Somalis knew when the white man was supposed to leave. Folks, these hungry Africans are not going anywhere until they get the last dime.

 

In a nut shell, Farmaajo has asked Ethiopia to deploy tens of thousands of forces,  and he  is asking the European union and others to fund it. He had decided that he can no longer be able to train mobilize and build Somali national army in the short term or long term. Despite the efforts of the Turkish army to train and equip Somali soldiers, Farmaajo had concluded that nothing meaningful will come out of that efforts. This could be even a ploy to oust the Turkish influence from Somalia. At the end in order to stay longer, he is willing to hold to power through the Ethiopian army.

 

Like many of you guys had said, he want to be another warlords that want to be close to Ethiopia in order to rule Somalia. Ethiopia want to mobilize soldiers from the Eritrean front and deploy inside Somalia including hot spots like Tukaraq, Mudug, and Bay. Folks, a man who campaigned to restore Somalia and build national army want to travel  the  easiest route of allowing a foreign rival power to control Somalia   in 2020.

 

We are going back to more than a decade. When C/laahi Yusuf came to rule ,  he didn't had a house or Villa to sleep in. He built a make shift quarters both in Jawhar and Baydhabo. Of course he came through the help of Ethiopian tanks but has a Somali plan to bring back the nation. He didn't rely to the Ethiopia for his personal security, and Villa Somalia and surrounding area was secured by Somali soldiers. He had a security plan to build 15,000 Somali soldiers and take over the security of the capital and regions between the river. He clashed with general Gabre within months and had thrown him out of his office. We all know that those same Ethiopian forces who helped him had denied his plans to create his own Somali security which forced him at the end forced him  to quit and leave the office if doesn't get his way of ruling the country. Since 1991, there was no one who was closer about restoring the national government than him. At the end, he died without one single penny in his pocket.

 

Now, ten years after  that event, along comes  a weak man that can not even protect himself calling the deployment of tens of thousands of Ethiopian soldiers in Somalia. Yet, no one is calling him to account for his miss deeds. It was the cartoons of Amin Amir , and the constant propaganda that depicted Hassan Sheikh as Ethiopian stooge that brought Farmaajo to power, yet those same people are cheering as he prepares to ride the Ethiopian tank. Can  anyone find today the likes of Zakariye Haji Mohamuud and others? No. 

 

"I could shoot someone in the middle of fifth avenue and I would not lose any voter"

 

Those of you who followed the 2016 American election might remember who said that quote. For those who are outsiders, let me make it easy for you: It was said by the Orange buffoon in the white house, Donald Trump.

 

In the land of Nomad--Somalia-- in different degree, we have a Teflon president that transgresses almost every time he faces any serious issue, yet certain people will say that he is the best thing that happened in Somalia since 1991. Some of these are either deplorables that doesn't care facts , paid trolls that disseminate the propaganda or just decent Somalis like who want to give him a chance to redeem himself.

 

Imagine, If Qalbi Dhagax was handed to Ethiopia by a prime minister from Puntland , say C/weli Gaas or Cumar sharmaarke. The Somali uprising would have shacked the government and armed groups would have descended to Villa Somalia ( Waa maantana kuwii gumaysiga u shaqaynaayey miyaa muwaadin Soomaaliyeed Axmaaro gacanta u galiyey, waar warmaha iyo qoryihiina soo qata oo madaxtooyada inagu shuba ayaad maqli lahydeen, Qurba jooguna mudaharaado ayey dibedaha ka dhigi lahaayeen).

 

C/raxman C/shakur signed a memorandum with the Kenyans about the future of the sea while discussion was continuing, yet him and Cumar C/rashiid are painted as traitors. In fact., that quite man behind the scene,  Ina C/rashiid has done most of the time consuming issues of state building, selecting members of parliament, the Senate and all those difficult issues, yet he was attacked as weak and incompetent. 

 

I even discussed with some Somalis who said that since Mogadishu is a lawless place, it is fine to deploy Ethiopian forces to secure the capital. The main issue is why would all Somalis suffer and endure a new occupation because of Mogadishu. Why not move the capital to Hargeisa which is close to Jigjiga, Jabuuti and the land between. If the cause of the dysfunction of the nation is that city and it's residents, then let us debate that issue openly, but if it is the incompetence of the leader, then find better leaders.

 

Somalia doesn't need the help of Ethiopia which is trying hard to keep it together. The western Oromo, despite the engine that brought the revolution ,  are agitating for change and sharing of the power. Today, both in Oromia and the federal level , the power is dominated by the Pentecostal guys from Wallega and the North. Mukhtar was removed  in 2015 to make way  for Lema Magrassa in Oroomia,  and they have no voice in the federal government. These are the people who created the Oromo Liberation Front that came home few weeks ago. 

 

The main issue is that Somalia doesn't have a stable or well thought foreign policy to follow. THe man who is the chief diplomat is a mediocre minister who has zero influence within the government and the region. For the last six months , more than twice, the Somali foreign minister was rebuked and forced to change his press releases by the prime minister. He was one of those people brought to the government by Hassan Sheikh I favor of uncle Faroole. In fact, no one knows who is the Somali defense minister, interior minister is , or those who are responsible for major portfolios. The security minister usually doesn't discusses national security threats other than  Mogadishu check points. Some even consider the journeys Khayre embarks to visit the ministries in the green zone as huge task that the national television broadcasts daily. Just like the colonial powers that resided in well fortified garrisons, the Somali government deals among themselves while the native Somalis live outside that premeter. It reminds me of Upper Town Djibouti (Guudka) where the French and those worked used to live while the natives crowded the lower part of the town.

Even Sheikh Cali Dheere, the spokesman of Al-Shabaab visited Bakaara market and told everyone to pay their taxes on time.

 

In conclusion, we argue Farmaajo to stop and think about these moves. Do not bring the struggling Ethiopia regime to the Somali political scene. It was Meles Zanawi who rode that war on terror and milked that cow for  next ten years. Do not create another cash cow for Ethiopia. Trump has reduced foreign aid around the globe and many are looking ways to create new conflicts to keep the cash following. Mr. Farmaajo, If you follow that route, you could be impeached for treason. Somalia must do its job and build itself rather than re-introduce huge Ethiopian army that many Somalis oppose. I have no doubt that the new deployment of Ethiopian soldiers will only increase the insurgency. Experts say that while Al-Shabaab is less visible today, they have more at ease  and presence in the land between the two rivers. Furthermore, look at the Taliban in Afghanistan where the most powerful army is deployed.  They are more deadlier today than 2004. 

Hadaadan hawshan ka bixi Karin Soomaalida dib uGu soo celi. 

 

[Suldaanka]

I am not too sure about Somalia(Proper) But it will be a cold day in hell for foreign Troops to come inside Somaliland territories. That is a given.

By the end of Cheeseman's term in just over 2 years, reer Somalia farta ayay dhexda ka qaniini doonaan. 

[Che -Guevara]

Galbeedi,

No Ethiopian troops are or will deployed anywhere in Mudug or Sool. Even if Ethiopia can do that, there will be no foreign funders and Ethiopia doesn't have the money.

Furthermore, Ethiopia itself is getting out of hand. Despite their showing of force in Jigjiga, the federal troops exercise no control in vast parts of the country.

The Tigray have essentially looted the military and moved heavy weaponry north.

Abiy has limited options. The country is getting out of hand. He can try to brutally put down his opposition, seek alliance with Amhara who have their own agenda or peacefully dismantle the country. There are no easy options. He needs all the troops he can get and quiet in the east.

Xamar can't be pacified as long as local clans and business cartel continue undermining the government. 

 

[galbeedi]

You could be right about Mudug and Sool since those who are paying the salaries are focused in Al Shabaab dominated inter river regions. 

The Ethiopian deployment is a way to make money from America and keeping the army busy out of he internall power. 

Insiders have shown us maps and plans for deployment, starting with Bay and Shabbelle. 

It all depends about raising the funds from Europe. 

[galbeedi]

 Many European nations had stopped paying Somali soldiers and prospect of trained Somali soldiers is almost Zero.

He will either get the Ethiopian army or will take his cash and go back to America and  retire as millionairee  like most before him.

[Che -Guevara]

American and UE are not committing anymore funds. Ethiopia already has continued presence in Bay. Shabele will be complicated issue for any group as clan competition there is combustible.

He will finish his term and will leave as it stands now.

P.s you are overestimating what  Ethiopia army can do. 

[Old_Observer]

2 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

You could be right about Mudug and Sool since those who are paying the salaries are focused in Al Shabaab dominated inter river regions. 

The Ethiopian deployment is a way to make money from America and keeping the army busy out of he internall power. 

Insiders have shown us maps and plans for deployment, starting with Bay and Shabbelle. 

It all depends about raising the funds from Europe. 

I like your previous observation which is true. Eritrea and Ethiopia have a lot of unemployed military, nothing to do. Military as source of income has been raised to level of art by Ethiopia. They have about 10,000 peace keepers this time all paid by UN and others probably 100 times the salary of Ethiopian soldier in Ethiopia.

All indications are that your posting is more true than false.

1. Everyone is trying to evict Turkey from America to Farmaajo (Isayas really hates Turkey. Remember Samora Mohamed Yonus and the Turkish chief of staff were not just diplomatic friends, but friends.

2. Ethiopia is desperate and is doing something never ever done before: Getting too close to one side in foreign friends, allies..etc. TPLF was very skilled in this with America and China, America and Russia, Israel and Iran...etc. Very close to middle powers like Turkey, Britain, India, Japan, Korea....

3. Farmaajo has given up on Mogadishu, but no alternative for him other than try and control it by Eritrea/Ethiopia. The hidden/open controllers of Mogadishu are good friends with Eritrea and Egypt. That might make his job easier. But he will lose all others starting from Puntland. Some areas might even go as far as calling for referendum of Somaliland.

This is also dangerous. In Ethiopia nothing is sure, its all in flux. In Eritrea its one man..something happens everything is gone. You cannot tie fate of Somalia to such unknown situation.

 

Looks 19th century all over again.

 

 

 

[Old_Observer]

9 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

American and UE are not committing anymore funds. Ethiopia already has continued presence in Bay. Shabele will be complicated issue for any group as clan competition there is combustible.

He will finish his term and will leave as it stands now.

P.s you are overestimating what  Ethiopia army can do. 

Che,

You are underestimating Ethiopian army. If there is money making venture or very dangerous threat, Ethiopia can have army for just about anything.

[galbeedi]

OO,

You made some points. There were 100,000 troops between the borders of Ethiopia and Eritrea, and those soldiers could be used to earn cash. In Southern Somalia. 

There are oil blocks in Sool region and the hawd side Of Sool  in Somali region  and the only army that can do any  oil extraction and security is the Ethiopian  army.

Turkey is trying to stay in Somalis without interfering the internal politics of Somalia, but if Farmaajo keeps pushing them and brings others to weaken Turkey , then they could be forced to back it is own faction. We will be the Turkish faction if need be.

You right, he gave up on Mogadishu without big fight. With 20,000 foreign forces and thousands of militias, all they could do is patrol the green zone. Someone who came from Mogadishu told me that the Amisom and other foreign troops are active at night patrolling, and once the day breaks the Somali units come out  while Al Shabab militants are active  is 24 hours. 

What really bugs me is showing pictures of nurses building the theatre and ministers visiting and clapping in the green zone.

[maakhiri1]

Galbeedi, is onto something, reliable source tell Amisom forces will be doubled and may come  to Puntland, Galmudug

[galbeedi]

Maakhiri,

Actually there are some people saying that the Ethiopian plan is a way out of the Amison and UN mission. In other words, an escape route to get out of this never ending UN mission.

The problem is Ethiopia at moment will not go against the Amisom or UN mission until others decide.

The Kenyans knowing the plan ahead had already declared that they will not leave Jubba even if Amisom leaves Somalia.

 

[galbeedi]

Let me say it again: Farmaajo is a good man,  and he is not a tribal person,  but Somalia needs  a tough guy who can dismantle the entrenched special interest groups.

[Duufaan]

Well, I don’t understand Galbeedi new focus on Farmaajo. The whole seniors you have put,forward are just pessimistic. I agree with you, Somali army will remain small but they became better and winning the battle when it happens.The biggest issue is funding and equipment. It will be slowly build up  but not enough to replace  the Amison. The stability will be provided by more optimistic people of Somalia  and that is happening in southern Somalia and sametime weakening Alshabaab will continue lose more area in slow pace. The faith of Farmaajo governments has more to do the progress made in the political front both locally and internationally. The election of western region will be a big test and Farmaajo government needs to win. This Ethiopia talk of opposition is just nonsense. Abiya hands is full, Ethiopia is mess itself right now and Abiya is trying to win time. The issue is not enough forces but money. If EU does not have money for Amison, they will not have money for Ethiopian army either. As long as the Farmaajo government  brings steady progress in moqdisho and other places, the opposition focus on Ethiopia will not work. The majority of Somalis still have high hopes for the government and the opposition is weak with no real agenda.

 

[Duufaan]

31 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

Let me say it again: Farmaajo is a good man,  and he is not a tribal person,  but Somalia needs  a tough guy who can dismantle the entrenched special interest groups.

I will argue, there are no time yet for tough guy. The government needs streamline of cash and before that happens, any government will be weak. A tough guy will get even more opposition at least short time. Farmaajo government already dismantled number of obstacles. The anarchist lost some weight but Farmaajo government hasn’t done  enough to empower disadvantage locals. When’s that happens the stability will return without army.

[galbeedi]

12 hours ago, Duufaan said:

The issue is not enough forces but money. If EU does not have money for Amison, they will not have money for Ethiopian army either.

Amisom troops are paid about $250 million dollars every year. Musafeni, Uhuru and others convince to keep paying these salaries pointing out the weakness of Somali security forces. 

There is no end date in sight, Some say 2020, yet nothing would change judging by todays standard. Just look at Afghaistan where a billion is spent every week. The insurgency is getting stronger year after year and there is no end in sight. What we need is Somali centered solutions. 

 

13 hours ago, Duufaan said:

The government needs streamline of cash and before that happens, any government will be weak. A to

 

I never believe money as an issue in Somalia. The country is flooded with hundreds of millions of dollars from so many different groups. There are over 60 government ministers and each one is earning six figure salary with body guards and while sleeping high end hotels. 

for the last few days, the finance committee of the parliament has asked the finance minister how they dispensed through government accounts about the $50 million dollars donated by the Saudis. 

All hell broke lose and 20 ministers descended to the parliament and attacked everyone. When a committee asks you to explain  discrepancies in the government finance, you respond with numbers not a sermon. Like a government trying to avoid a vote of no confidence, they told some of the members of the finance committee who signed the letter to recant and say that they we were not there when the letter was written. I know when someone is pressured .

Mr. Bayle must stop his sermons and answer the questions by numbers from the bank and his ministry how the money was spent. It is simple.

 

When he was elected almost everyone said that if pacifies the capital and builds few thousand  non sectarian national army , his would achieve something. There is no army after two tears and the capital is more dangerous than ever. If people are judging how many capitals the president visits or the false carpet foreign leaders  are throwing for him, then we are doomed.  Hassan Sheikh visited more places with red carpets. Of course those foreign [powers that backs him up might talk him up as long as he is following the script, but as soon as he tries to change course and find Somali solutions, they will discard him and bring another with white horse.

Ceel ma la qoday, reerkii biyo ma ka cabay. That is how we judge.