Che -Guevara

Abiy Ahmed starts hunting Tigray generals

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Tigray generals are fleeing or retreating to Tigray region. These guys are supposedly  being arrested for corruption.

However, the Ethiopian  AG has accused and issued arrests for members of Ethiopian Intelligence aka Tigray officers for trying to kill Abiy by using  Oromo individuals.

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YoniZ   

Che, 

The Oromo attacks nowadays are dying down. These look more isolated cases rather than organized ones we have seen earlier this year. The swift removal of Mr ileey became some sort of blessing in disguise. 

In order to consolidate power, Jawar and Abiya have bigger fish (former ruling Tigray elites) to fry. This move against the top army guys will either make them rule the country for real or, turn the clock back to the power struggles of the early 70s. 

It will probably take longer time than early 70s for any ethnic group - including the over ambitious Amhara - attain complete monopoly of the power in that country. 

This time over, there is no proper ally in the form of the cold war era to fall back to. Add to that, Abiya was smart to extenguish the hostile neighbor threat that can be used  by his opponents as whipping horse. 

Sheekadu waa tii carabta ee aheyd, Masaaibu qawmin cinda qawmin fawaaidu. Maryooley siday u nasiib badan yihiin uma helin hogaan uga faaiideeya fursadaha. 

 

 

 

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Yoniz,

Abiy and his Oromo are buying time. I do agree they will either come out strong or the country balkanize. The country is awash with weapons. In fact, in rural areas, there is no much of government. Tigray are the most organized and that will make all the difference.

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14 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

Yoniz,

Abiy and his Oromo are buying time. I do agree they will either come out strong or the country balkanize. The country is awash with weapons. In fact, in rural areas, there is no much of government. Tigray are the most organized and that will make all the difference.

Neither of the two options you suggest will suffice.

The Balkanization of Ethiopia will be a disaster for everyone, including us Somalis, wherever we maybe. ..And if the Oromo, who rightfully resisted the tyranny of Tigray rule, try to become like the Tigray dictators— and gain full control of the levers of power and subjugate the other ethnic communities to their will, then that will only hasten the unfavorable Balkanization previously mentioned which, I assume, we all agree is of no interest to any one community in the Horn.

In my view, the only way forward, is for the Oromo (who so far have the legitimacy to reform the country) to go about it  in a manner that first and foremost does not  alienate any one group,  and secondly respect the free will of the constituent communities who have the right to self-determination to decide how they will either live together as one nation or as friendly neighboring countries.

The road will be tough and arduous but the sooner Ethiopia is reconstituted fairly and equitably by all stakeholders of the country, the better it will be for all involved.

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galbeedi   

Abiy is hastening the eventual show  down  with the TPLF security men who also control large military industrial complex. According to Ethiopian investigators, the so called Grand Dam was a huge scheme to embezzled money from the state. Most of the money for the Dam was raised through non conventional methods since the world bank and other western institutions refused to finance. 

That is why Abiy said that the Dam is unsustainable economically. It was a TPLF Biggy bank.

Billions of Ethiopian Bir was stolen in the name of this huge Dam. As soon as Abiy took over, the TPLF intelligence had murdered the engineer who was in charge of the Dam in order to conceal their crime. 

The general arrested was the CEO of the firm. The TPLF might cry wolf, but their monopoly on military , intelligence and economy are targeted. They are losing the economic power and the intelligence influence, and the only thing remaining in their their military power. 

If they deo not use this military superiority soon, the TIGRAY will be history. Some are agitating to create the old Turkish style of generals who called themselves as the guardians of the system. The TPLf has cleaned the Ethiopian foreign currency for the last three years. Some of that money went through Somali run Hawala and other banks while forwarded to the gulf and Europe.

If Mr. Getachew, the former intelligence officer had joined the TPLF regional leadership , yet he is indicted as everyone else.

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On 11/13/2018 at 12:19 PM, Holac said:

Once again, Jawar speaks like he is the real boss running the show. :)

@Old_Observer, if you are reading this, tell us more.

He is. The Government and the Rebel group Jawar supports agreed again to (share power) what euphemistically is called to work together.

Jawar has a lot of influence on the ground. The Abiy government is still struggling on the top which is the easy part. The most difficult part will be to bring order in the provinces where the youth have overthrown government and set up committees in a lot of places.

 

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On 11/13/2018 at 2:06 PM, maakhiri1 said:

As predicted and advised  to OO, over a year ago, run away with your family before it is too late. All collabrators are next.

Thank you as always for a good advice. Actually the Oromo are replacing the Tigray, but still keeping enough Tigray to fend off Amhara. Their problem is the Tigray used the common struggle of all including the Somali people at the top group against past regimes. The Oromo don't have such an asset, so they need more allies that will need negotiation and compromise more than it did for Tigray.

It looks like more Eritrea Tigray than Oromo so far in many cases.

No body knows why but in few days apart the American and Israeli ambassadors were in Tigray. Nothing happens by chance.

Those being arrested are folks of the same feather, not much depth in Tigray itself. Some of them probably would have been arrested by Tigray itself and handed.

 

 

 

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19 hours ago, Tillamook said:

Neither of the two options you suggest will suffice.

The Balkanization of Ethiopia will be a disaster for everyone, including us Somalis, wherever we maybe. ..And if the Oromo, who rightfully resisted the tyranny of Tigray rule, try to become like the Tigray dictators— and gain full control of the levers of power and subjugate the other ethnic communities to their will, then that will only hasten the unfavorable Balkanization previously mentioned which, I assume, we all agree is of no interest to any one community in the Horn.

In my view, the only way forward, is for the Oromo (who so far have the legitimacy to reform the country) to go about it  in a manner that first and foremost does not  alienate any one group,  and secondly respect the free will of the constituent communities who have the right to self-determination to decide how they will either live together as one nation or as friendly neighboring countries.

The road will be tough and arduous but the sooner Ethiopia is reconstituted fairly and equitably by all stakeholders of the country, the better it will be for all involved.

So far they are not getting participation from many corners. The PM has said he is the transition and no need for transition government. He is the transformation and no need for all party conferences. A lot of groups are outside the loop and already disseminating suspicion that the Oromo are just replacing some of the Tigre and not transforming the country.

Abdi Iley has not been accused of any article yet. The Attorney is asking for 14 days each permission to prepare the accusations.

 

 

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