Former minister Cabdi F. Juxa is in Canada campaigning and fundraising, but....

[galbeedi]

 

Folks, it is an election season in Puntland.

 

Former Somali foreign affaires minister Cabdi Farah Juxa was in Alberta campaigning and fund raising. He had a decent reception in one of the main venues in town where he addressed the Somali community. He did talk about the usual problems of Somalia, while  blaming others for the current issues. In his talk, the most notable was his distaste about how federal states were behaving or something similar.

Yet, when he met a selected group of people mainly from Puntland and some D block members, he emphasized the importance of federalism and sharing of power and resources  as the only forward for Somalia. I wasn't there but , some of my friends were there and told me how things unfolded. I do not blame for double talking since in political circles every audience must be approached in different attitude.

 

Anyway, I am not here to divulge what minster Juxa did or didn't say. I am here to discuss about  his chances of winning the election in a few months. According to Puntlanders and others, Mr. Juxa has less than 10% chances of replacing C/weli Gaas, the current leader. THey said, there are some unsurmountable obstacles that will hinder for Mr. Juxa for becoming a serious candidate.

 

1- Unlike C/weli,  he has some extreme opposition and antipathy from certain segments of the Puntland regions. Those who hail from Mudug , especially Gadogob,  do not like anyone associated to former Puntland president Faroole. Few years ago there was skirmishes between the government and residents of Garsoor district in Gaalkacayo , mostly inhabited by the Galdogob community, and Faroole accused the whole district by being Al-Shabaab and used canons to destroy Hotels and businesses. That community never forgot that crime.

 

Also, those who hail from Sool and Sanaag region believe that Puntland lost ground to Somaliland especially during the reign of C/raxman Faroole who refused to interfere the internal civil  war of the Garaad community in Laascaanood. For Faroole, it was a no win situation since those involved  the conflict hailed from the same community. Yet, many people from those regions believe that Faroole and his clan in Nugaal to be bad news for Sool, especially those allied with Puntland.

 

2- He doesn't have a war chest --money for the campaign--to face off C/weli and others who have better access of money,  either from the public purse or from donors and business people.  While Mr. Juxa  was in Alberta,  he did raise some small donations from his supporters and others in the region. This meaningless donations might point out two things:   either, Mr. Juxa could be a descent man that didn't steal any money during his stint at the federal minister, or a mediocre politician who could not attract ant heavy weight donors for his campaign.

 

3-Last , but not the least, the people of Puntland in general do not want another leader from the Nugaal region. Some of my friends even say that the people of that region seem to be entitled to lead Puntland mainly because Garoowe being the capital of Puntland.  Dadka qaar baa qaba in ay barwaaqdada iyo magaalaynta Garoowe haddi aanay tartiibsan in ay iska daadin doonaan sida kuwa Muqdishu barwaaqada iska daadiyey .

 

This and many other reason would make the candidacy of Mr. Juxa very difficult. In fact,  looking the crops of candidates who would be challengers of president C/weli Gaas, no one seems to be a serious threat. Some are old and yesterdays news like Morgan , while others are very weak candidates who might not even make the first round. 

 

In my opinion, C/weli will face real challengers  from two sides that are at the moment hiding behind the curtain. 

 

One will be a Farmaajo endorsed candidate

 

So far, we do not know who will be this candidate, but all indications point that president Farmaajo and Khayre will sponsor their own candidate. That man or women, will not be collecting few hundreds from the diaspora or  from  the business community. They will be given money from the Qatar account which is sitting in Vill-Somalia. In fact, just this weekend, I did have a coffee with a  friend who just came from Mogadishu, and asked him  about the bags of money  coming from Qatar and whether they are deposited in the central bank. He said that the money doesn't enter through government financial routes like the  central bank. They are used as the Biggy bank of the boys from Dayniile and Ansaloti. 

 

No one is discussing this. THe useless Mogadishu reporters s or would be investigators talk about the salary of a professional people hired by C/raxman Bayle or someone related to him. These  Mogadishu boys want all the good jobs for themselves and are jealous of Bayle hiring anyone outside their circle. 

 

C/raxman Bayle is doing a good job, yet he is intimidated by the Mogadishu oligarchs and Khayre himself. In fact, Bayle demanded that all donor money and other government revenue to go directly to the central bank. When the money from Saudi Arabia came they deposited only half of the money. When Bayle demanded to deposit all, Khayre leaked through the media and his supporters about his intension to fire him or adding him the list of the coming cabinet shuffle. 

 

My sources told me that Khayre hired a consultant from the East Burco community related to Dahabshiil to handle all the money coming from the gulf , especially from Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The money is deposited in Dahabshiil and released to the accounts of the national intelligence controlled by Fahad Yasin. This is something every politician desires to have cash under your pillow, but the problem is  that while throwing millions around, for political favors,  do not claim later that Somali soldiers do not have enough salary to do the job.

 

I do not want to be side tracked , but the main point is that Khayre and Farmaajo have a bag of money to spend as they wish. So,  Mr. Gaas might eventually face the man sponsored by Villa _Somalia. At the moment, all indications point to the minister planning and international relations (Wasiirka Qorsheynta Qaranka) Mr. Jamall M. Hassan,  to be the man delegated to manage the replacement of Mr. Gaas for FArmaajo and company.

 

The other man who could be running or rumored to be running might be former prime minister Cumar C/rashiid. 

 

As a former prime minister with a big name recognition, he  can easily procure the money needed for the campaign. Since it's formation 20 years ago, Puntland leaders used that position as the stepping stone for the federal president. Both C/weli Gaas and Sharmaarke probably might have certain aspirations to reach that goal, and everyone is aware that without the Puntland presidency, it will be difficult reach that goal. Since regional leaders nominate the would be parliament members of every region , regional presidency is  coveted position for future national leadership. My sense is that if Mr. Sharmaarke throws his hat on the ring e might give Gass a real challenge.

 

Despite all of this, if I were a betting man, I would put my money on C/weli Gaas not only to win but win comfortably. 

 

Here is why:

 

Mr. Gaas have a solid support from three regions, namely , Sool, Sanaag Bari and Mudug.  Sool and Sanaag alone have around 24 members of the Puntland parliament. While the Sool community is divided on the status of their region and the pendulum is swinging back and forth to Somaliland, those who joined Puntland are expected to support Gaas compared to others. While some Sool residents believe that the only reason Puntland is drumming the war  effort  is that the Somaliland artillery is getting closer  just 45 miles from GarooweI, others, especially those who  reside inside  the Puntland parliament,  believe Gaas  as  the only leader who challenged Somaliland lately.  He is also waging a proxy war  against Somaliland in  Sanaag through the new rebellion of  Colonel Caare . 

 

Gaas also succeeded to drag Somaliland in the Somali conflict in the eyes of the international community. When the international community demanded to total cessation of hostilities, he said to the UN envoy , " I would not stop until both  elders of the Sool community agree on the cease fire". He then forced the UN envoy to meet and sit down with the Sool elders both in Garoowe and Hargeisa to show them that his hands are tied by the international community. In other words, despite the stagnation of the Tukaraq war which is costing a lot of money that Puntland doesn't have, the Sool and Sanaag communities are expected to vote for Gaas.

 

Add that to Mudug and he got almost close thirty.  Yet, the biggest threat for defeat is if Gaas faced two serious challengers teaming up to defeat him. AS history has shown throughout Somalia , especially on the national level, the challengers usually gang up against the incumbent office holder. Which means that if Gaas doesn't win the first round anything could happen. Also, the Bari region which has the largest members of parliament--21---could be the dark horse that will decide the outcome.

 

I will conclude that, in a month or so, we might be able to figure out who are the serious contenders for the presidency of Puntland. Who knows, this Juxa guy could be acting poor at the moment and might get soon  some of the money from Qatar to became a serious challenge.

[maakhiri1]

Sharmaake , best chance.

Gaas, zero chance unless meesha lacag ku khasifo.

[Suldaanka]

Hagbaddu/Ayuutadu doorkan waa Qardho. Hadii Qardho heli waydo Jamac Cali Jamac cusub ka filo.  

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Yes the pirate enclave  which is about to collapse under the reign of  cabdi cawar it's time for reer bosaaaso camp jamac cali jamac cadde muse folks  al  usmaniya. Even the small bari clans don't stand a chance it's  the so called qardho  folks and ufeyn karkaar communities. Waxani wa  hagbad people don't vote  it's farataag  selections.

 

[Old_Observer]

When you see small and big territories leaders not competing with Economic big plans big ideas, it means they are getting in there to perpetuate the existing and have their turn at the telly. That may need war to defend it or perpetuate it.

Puntland/Somaliland should avoid war by all means.

 

galbeedi,

Anyone that is not clear on Federal or unitary or wants both sides is not a winner. Federal folks in Mugadishu may want war to be in the north rather than other places to dump all problems on that war. It looks very unlikely.

 

[galbeedi]

Xaaji & OOdweyne,

The Hagbad thing do exisit in many places. Without vtwo Mogadishu area ruling consectively in Somalia like Shariif Ahmed and Hassan Sheikh, , Farmaajo leadership might not have been possible. Also, to some extent the Hagbad do exist in Somaliland. Cigaal of first Habro ruled , so was Rayaale and Ahmed Siilaanyo, and last year the Hagbad or Shalango as southern call it, supposed to go to West Burco and that is why we are having all these issues today in Somaliland. If Wadani had taken over, Somaliland would have been perfected and there could not have been any grievances. In democracy, it is crucial to open the ruling gates for the opposition.

Now, on the issue of the Puntland Hagbad, you are not familiar with the Bari region and the horse trading. At the moment, he  Cusmania , do not have a viable candidate on the field other than Cumar Sharmaarke who may or might not run. The people who should really take the Hagbad are the C. Saleebaan guys from Qandala, Boosaaso and most of the Bari region. By far, they are the largest community in all of Puntland but they got small number of members of parliament, and I Galbeedi , I like them a lot.

For sure, if the Reer Bari and those from NUgaal gang up against Gaas, he will be defeated. If no strong candidate comes from Qandala, and Sharmaarke stays out, Gaas will win landslide.

[Che -Guevara]

This cannot  be an election, a selection yes.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

That might anger the pirates  che  they are holding elections. I wonder which selection is worse the amisom bunker selection of the pirate one.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Galbeedi you can't compare Somaliland to failed state Somalia. In Somaliland we have one man one vote. The rule of law a constitution. Somalia  they don't have that they have the rule of the jungle. President mujahid abdiraxman tuur vice President mujahid xassan ciise jamac you forgot. Who inherited a destroyed nation. In Somaliland the rayaale presidency after him  the people decided. Since 2001 we adopted a new constitution. We had 2 civilian presidents ina cigaal ina rayaale. And 3 SNM presidents mujahid tuur mujahid biixi mujahid siilaanyo.

[galbeedi]

 Che, 

you guys are correct. This a selection.

Xaaji, I agree. One man one vote is a milestone experience for Somaliland that is difficult to achieve in the horn of Africa.

Anyway, speaking of the Hagbad, don't you guys think that it is our turn in the Mogadishu selection.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

I doubt  It galbeedi in the amisom bunker there is a duapoly along with Qatari funders it's it's very difficult  task. In the amisom your not an equal share holder as the other 2. The beggars of diinsoor madhaafan parliament speaker. And the  H  D clans  share the rest of the pie.

[Dahireeto]

On 10/21/2018 at 8:46 PM, galbeedi said:

One man one vote is a milestone experience for Somaliland that is difficult to achieve in the horn of Africa.

One man one vote has been a curse for Somaliland. Gaas beat Faroole with just one single vote. Everyone could see it, no dispute, no threats, no fake commission deciding who won. Can you imagine that ever happening in Somaliland?  In Somaliland, someone ayaa always ku-shubta like there is no tomorrow, and the opposition cries to sleep for the next 5 years. lol

It is a big farce. 

[Suldaanka]

6 hours ago, Dahireeto said:

One man one vote has been a curse for Somaliland. Gaas beat Faroole with just one single vote. Everyone could see it, no dispute, no threats, no fake commission deciding who won. Can you imagine that ever happening in Somaliland?  In Somaliland, someone ayaa always ku-shubta like there is no tomorrow, and the opposition cries to sleep for the next 5 years. lol

It is a big farce. 

Somaliland's democracy is a journey. The people on vote day were exemplary. The way people casted their votes, kept their lines and respected each other and allowed the sick, the elders and the disabled to vote first. The way the volunteers were distributing water bottles to those still, patiently and peacefully, standing in the scorching sun waiting their turn to cast their votes. 

The people's level of understanding is comparison to those of advanced democracies in Europe and North America. 

However, no system is perfect as long as corrupted, self-interest individuals are willing to do whatever it takes to distort or rig the elections. It happens anywhere in the world, even here in Australia. In fact, a number of seats in Western Australia had to be re-run again because of vote rigging. 

Donald Trump used Russians in order to rig elections.

These edge cases do not represent the achievements of the day which is overwhelmingly Free, Fair and Transparent. 

Somaliland is on the right track, with a good learning curve, there will come a day when everything is smoothly done.