Somali Galbeed must have pland B , C, D for the shakey Ethiopian political system.

[galbeedi]

The new Ethiopian liberalization formula might a road block sooner rather than later.

 I mentioned in these pages that the old Ethiopian political system can not survive to the changing attitude of the 21st century. I opined that they either dissolve to five or six states as the former Yugoslavia or democratize as multi culture and multi ethnic plural democratic nation.

If things continue the direction they are heading , the Yugoslav model with deadly results could be the answer.

Democratic and open Ethiopia means the overthrow of the old order of the highlanders, mainly the Amhara and their old junior partners, the Tigray, who ruled the country for the last 500 years.

The convenient alliances between the Oromo and Amhara groups is almost finished. As we speak , the Amhara are feeling  that Jawar Mohamed had betrayed them and want to confront the rising  Queero youth in Addis and other major towns, While the Tigray politicians are playing both sides.  large number of the Tigray  public will never accept the devolution of the ethnic federalism or a future take over of Amhara. So, as realist people, they are allying themselves with the Oromo movement for convenience and mischief.

Furthermore, the Tigray had already licked their wounds and are preparing for the future. They might seem to  support an Oromo led Ethiopia, while undermining the law and order aspects of the country. The vast majority of the Addis police are Tigray, and they were spectators while the Queero mob run through the business neighborhoods of the city. 

 

Yet, despite all of these problems, the biggest political conflict the might dissolve Ethiopia is between the Queero led Jawar and Abiy Ahmed, the prime minister. The ruling elite of EPRDF , despite their ethnic differences , are a political elite who had changed their shirts and announced themselves as reformers. Most of the Oromo in the federal power were those who were not only loyal but ruthless against ethnic federalism, yet when the Oromo caravan of uprising showed up, they all acted as reformers and stocked to their Tigray overlords.

Both Abiy and other EPRDF elites realized the danger of Queero led Jawhar to take the power. In order to sideline Jawar  they instituted a dormant constitutional clause that bars dual citizens from holding power. Jawar and company were demanding a national unity government to manage the upcoming elections and to reduce the power of the current party. Also, the rise of Jawar means , for the next election, the Oromo must choose between the revolutionary leader Jawar or the the current primie minister . 

Deep down Jawar understands that the Amhara elite in Addis and their Oromo political alliance like Abiy will not accept an Ethiopia led by outsiders. The entrenched Orthodox order will not give up  their privilege of ruling Ethiopia by outsiders like Jawar. The only acceptable Oromo is an Obama type Abiy who is culturally Amhara, while nominally ridding the Oromo wave.

The largest majority of the Oromo do not want the dissolution of Ethiopia at the moment. Their elites know that the well managed Ethiopian order is the only way both the Oromo and others could survive. Any chaos will destroy mostly the livelihood of large Oromo population. The Tigray region will be intact and orderly, while the Amhara might suffer in Addis.

I do not know what is in the cards, but Abiy has to eliminate Jawar and his Queero in some strange way. Revolutions sometimes eat their own children , and our friend Jawar might face the sword of the Tigre elite, the Amhara and the Oromized Amhara. 

The Ethiopia army is still intact and can crush any movement for the name of preserving peace and order. Furthermore, the Queero and other Oromo had destroyed their credibility to build any alliance to their neighbors   including with Somalis. If the Ethiopian army and Abiy decides to crush the Queero and the Oromo uprising, the later has no one to support  from anyone else. They can't go back to Eritrea for support; they can't get  arms from the Somalis due to their hostilities toward Somalis, and might be boxed and massacred like a sitting duck.

 

Somali -Oromo Alliance.

Dissolving the current order will be disaster for all involved. Yet, the Oromo , Somalis and others should know that the old Ethiopian order can't exist to rule others for ever. Rebels could disarm, prisoners were released, and all the current freedom of expression we see in Ethiopia. Yet, unless those who are looking from outside get in , nothing changes.

A friend of mine told me that, people felt freedom in 1974, which got ugly and oppressive after the war of 1977. Then when the TPLF took over their where a window of optimism and freedom for five to seven years, then came the dismantling of the Somali republic and oppression of the Somali region in Ethiopia. That is why it is important at this juncture to put your demands on the table.  Some even say iron fist and oppression the only way to keep Ethiopia united and any freedom or changing the top power structure will dissolve Ethiopia once foe all.

The first stage is to demand multi party system and the freedom for Somalis to express themselves and debate for their future.  The current Illey built party doesn't represent the will of the people.  ONLF and others must not fold quickly and disappear without getting straight the issue of self determinations and future destiny. In the meantime,  the current leader must start governing and building institutions. In Jigjiga and other places people were not paid their salaries over a month and government offices are empty.

The second state is  to prepare for the worst. The Somali region needs to prepare for eventual independence if things get ugly, and that independence would be only possible with support of the Oromo population in the south west. Any separation without the Oromo will force the Oromo to take as much land as possible. 

 

Jawar Mohamed understands that in order to win any national election he must get the support of the Somalis. As I said,  the crowded Oromo caravan has to disband in to smaller caravans, and that will start soon after Abiy crushes the Queero mob who might do more damage to their cause at the moment.

 

In conclusion, if the current trend continues there will be a show down between law and order and anarchy. Mr. Abiy has to act and choose his side. He could keep his Oromo support while keeping the law and order. In order to achieve some of those, he must replace more TPLF intelligence and police commanders who are fueling the instability. They used Illey to ignite the Somali-Oromo fire, and now they are paving the way for Oromo-Amhara, while watching from their comfortable seat in Mekale, Tigray.

 

 

 

[Dahireeto]

Quote

The first stage is to demand multi party system and the freedom for Somalis to express themselves and debate for their future.  The current Illey built party doesn't represent the will of the people.  ONLF and others must not fold quickly and disappear without getting straight the issue of self determinations and future destiny. In the meantime,  the current leader must start governing and building institutions. In Jigjiga and other places people were not paid their salaries over a month and government offices are empty.

That is the spirit. If they can't take advantage of the façade that exists today in Ethiopia, there will never be another opportunity. 

[Tillamook]

22 hours ago, galbeedi said:

The new Ethiopian liberalization formula might a road block sooner rather than later.

 I mentioned in these pages that the old Ethiopian political system can not survive to the changing attitude of the 21st century. I opined that they either dissolve to five or six states as the former Yugoslavia or democratize as multi culture and multi ethnic plural democratic nation.

If things continue the direction they are heading , the Yugoslav model with deadly results could be the answer.

Democratic and open Ethiopia means the overthrow of the old order of the highlanders, mainly the Amhara and their old junior partners, the Tigray, who ruled the country for the last 500 years.

The convenient alliances between the Oromo and Amhara groups is almost finished. As we speak , the Amhara are feeling  that Jawar Mohamed had betrayed them and want to confront the rising  Queero youth in Addis and other major towns, While the Tigray politicians are playing both sides.  large number of the Tigray  public will never accept the devolution of the ethnic federalism or a future take over of Amhara. So, as realist people, they are allying themselves with the Oromo movement for convenience and mischief.

Furthermore, the Tigray had already licked their wounds and are preparing for the future. They might seem to  support an Oromo led Ethiopia, while undermining the law and order aspects of the country. The vast majority of the Addis police are Tigray, and they were spectators while the Queero mob run through the business neighborhoods of the city. 

 

Yet, despite all of these problems, the biggest political conflict the might dissolve Ethiopia is between the Queero led Jawar and Abiy Ahmed, the prime minister. The ruling elite of EPRDF , despite their ethnic differences , are a political elite who had changed their shirts and announced themselves as reformers. Most of the Oromo in the federal power were those who were not only loyal but ruthless against ethnic federalism, yet when the Oromo caravan of uprising showed up, they all acted as reformers and stocked to their Tigray overlords.

Both Abiy and other EPRDF elites realized the danger of Queero led Jawhar to take the power. In order to sideline Jawar  they instituted a dormant constitutional clause that bars dual citizens from holding power. Jawar and company were demanding a national unity government to manage the upcoming elections and to reduce the power of the current party. Also, the rise of Jawar means , for the next election, the Oromo must choose between the revolutionary leader Jawar or the the current primie minister . 

Deep down Jawar understands that the Amhara elite in Addis and their Oromo political alliance like Abiy will not accept an Ethiopia led by outsiders. The entrenched Orthodox order will not give up  their privilege of ruling Ethiopia by outsiders like Jawar. The only acceptable Oromo is an Obama type Abiy who is culturally Amhara, while nominally ridding the Oromo wave.

The largest majority of the Oromo do not want the dissolution of Ethiopia at the moment. Their elites know that the well managed Ethiopian order is the only way both the Oromo and others could survive. Any chaos will destroy mostly the livelihood of large Oromo population. The Tigray region will be intact and orderly, while the Amhara might suffer in Addis.

I do not know what is in the cards, but Abiy has to eliminate Jawar and his Queero in some strange way. Revolutions sometimes eat their own children , and our friend Jawar might face the sword of the Tigre elite, the Amhara and the Oromized Amhara. 

The Ethiopia army is still intact and can crush any movement for the name of preserving peace and order. Furthermore, the Queero and other Oromo had destroyed their credibility to build any alliance to their neighbors   including with Somalis. If the Ethiopian army and Abiy decides to crush the Queero and the Oromo uprising, the later has no one to support  from anyone else. They can't go back to Eritrea for support; they can't get  arms from the Somalis due to their hostilities toward Somalis, and might be boxed and massacred like a sitting duck.

 

Somali -Oromo Alliance.

Dissolving the current order will be disaster for all involved. Yet, the Oromo , Somalis and others should know that the old Ethiopian order can't exist to rule others for ever. Rebels could disarm, prisoners were released, and all the current freedom of expression we see in Ethiopia. Yet, unless those who are looking from outside get in , nothing changes.

A friend of mine told me that, people felt freedom in 1974, which got ugly and oppressive after the war of 1977. Then when the TPLF took over their where a window of optimism and freedom for five to seven years, then came the dismantling of the Somali republic and oppression of the Somali region in Ethiopia. That is why it is important at this juncture to put your demands on the table.  Some even say iron fist and oppression the only way to keep Ethiopia united and any freedom or changing the top power structure will dissolve Ethiopia once foe all.

The first stage is to demand multi party system and the freedom for Somalis to express themselves and debate for their future.  The current Illey built party doesn't represent the will of the people.  ONLF and others must not fold quickly and disappear without getting straight the issue of self determinations and future destiny. In the meantime,  the current leader must start governing and building institutions. In Jigjiga and other places people were not paid their salaries over a month and government offices are empty.

The second state is  to prepare for the worst. The Somali region needs to prepare for eventual independence if things get ugly, and that independence would be only possible with support of the Oromo population in the south west. Any separation without the Oromo will force the Oromo to take as much land as possible. 

 

Jawar Mohamed understands that in order to win any national election he must get the support of the Somalis. As I said,  the crowded Oromo caravan has to disband in to smaller caravans, and that will start soon after Abiy crushes the Queero mob who might do more damage to their cause at the moment.

 

In conclusion, if the current trend continues there will be a show down between law and order and anarchy. Mr. Abiy has to act and choose his side. He could keep his Oromo support while keeping the law and order. In order to achieve some of those, he must replace more TPLF intelligence and police commanders who are fueling the instability. They used Illey to ignite the Somali-Oromo fire, and now they are paving the way for Oromo-Amhara, while watching from their comfortable seat in Mekale, Tigray.

 

 

 

Yep... interesting times ahead.

An Amhara neighbor of mine told me  they are building a legal case against Jawar in Washington that he is inciting ethnic cleansing in Ethiopia. Apparently, since Jawar is a US citizen they think this might cause him to back down from the demands he is insisting upon for the  Oromo community.

[galbeedi]

A court case against Jawar will be one of the moves the Amhara will do. The Amhara  will strengthen the hands of Abiy in the short term. As long as their ideals are implemented, they are not in hurry to get the top post.

[galbeedi]

OLF greeted in Makale.

 

[galbeedi]

On the other hand , Somali youth carrying ONLF flags were arrested in JIgjiga according to Radio Borama news by the new mayor of JIgjiga.

 

Waxaa magaalada Jigjiga lagu xidh xidhay Tiro Dhalin yaro ah oo aan wax dambi ah galin.

sida ay wararku sheegayaan dhalin yarada ayaa xariga kumutaystay inay jabiyeen amar kasoo baxay maayarka magaalada jigjiga, iyo hogaanka nabad galyada kaasi oo aranaayay Calanka jabhada wadaniga xoraynta ogaadeeniya Jigjiga laguma dhex wadan karo.

waxaan raadinaya dhalinyarada magacyadooda lkn waxaanu magaceeda iyo sawirkeeda helnay XUBI CABDI waana gabadha sawirkeedu hoos ka muuqdo .
 

[cadnaan1]

6 hours ago, Tillamook said:

Yep... interesting times ahead.

An Amhara neighbor of mine told me  they are building a legal case against Jawar in Washington that he is inciting ethnic cleansing in Ethiopia. Apparently, since Jawar is a US citizen they think this might cause him to back down from the demands he is insisting upon for the  Oromo community.

In this tweet jawar is admitting that killing somalis during abdi illey time was ok.

 

[Holac]

When is @Abtigiisgoing to come back to SOL to address some of the issues raised by SOLers?  It takes guts and fortitude.

[Tillamook]

On 9/23/2018 at 1:25 PM, cadnaan1 said:

In this tweet jawar is admitting that killing somalis during abdi illey time was ok.

 

Saaxiib, hadal waa margi oo kale, hadba meel u jiidma.

I suspect, English not being his first language—he could have said it better. At the end of the day, Jawar is a beast of the moment and he is holding the ears of a hungry Jackal (Oromos)...only time will tell if he will be able to satisfy its appetite.

[galbeedi]

On ‎9‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 5:30 PM, Oodweyne said:

This is what Mr Abba Eban (the famous Israeli's foreign minister) once alleged, politically, to the Palestinians.

I really do not know your intensions here. Were you trying to carry favors with the Zionists by sending these subliminal signals ?,. or you do not know the message these words and others were intended in the world stage.

You are either ignorant of these words or you wanted to get some bonuses from Zionists. Either way, we must set the record straight in order to limit your damage here.

Most of the young guys here probably do not know world history or the world events for the last few decades. I do not have a degree in history , but I consider my self an expert on world history and these issues without even looking history books.

In order to discredit and derail the Palestinian struggle and dream  to get their home land back or achieve the much desired two state solutions , the Zionists accuse the Palestinians of refusing to accept peace and constantly missing every opportunity for peace to get the state they desire.

It is the same plot that Netanyahu and his predecessor Ariel Sharon had used. After Arafat and Yitzhak Rabin signed the Oslo accord for two state solutions, these two right wingers used every opportunity to destroy and that hope and build settlements on the West Bank and the land intended for the Palestinian state. 

It was Sharon who bombed and destroyed all the infrastructure and administration built by Arafat and others. Yet, they accuse the Palestinian for missing opportunities for peace. .On one side they bomb, on the other side they keep building settlements, yet on world stage, they accuse them of missing an opportunity for peace.

Thank God some of us are here to refute your Zionist talking points.  Next time, think before you write. It is an advice free of charge.