Somaliland and Somalia Showdown—Middle East Proxy War Ratchets up Tension

[Deeq A.]

Shortly after U.N., IGAD, and U.K. defused a potential armed conflict between Somaliland and Puntland in Sool province of Somaliland, Puntland vows to reignite the violence, undermining the International community’s mediation efforts. And the Somaliland officials are now baffled about Puntland’s unpredictable behavior. However, as war gathers momentum, the outcome of a final showdown between the defending Somaliland troops and the invading Puntland’s clan militias is predictable. But the conflict is a prelude to a brewing proxy war between Qatar, Iran and the Houthi rebel group on one side, and the UEA, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt on the other. Hence, the Middle East power struggle plays out on a new stage that is already volatile.

First, Puntland’s imminent war rhetoric catches the Somaliland leaders off guard. More so, Hargeisa, Somaliland capital, faces a dilemma. On one hand, Somaliland wants to honor the International community’s mediation, and in fact, it withdrew its security forces from the contested area of Tukaraq village. On the other, Somaliland cannot sit idle while Puntland gears up for violence. Amazingly, the current Somaliland President, Muse Bihi Abdi, a former army commander who led successful battles against the deposed Somali tyrant, Gen. Mohammed Siad Barre in late 90s, appeals for peace and dialogue while the Puntland leader, Dr. Abdiweli Mohamed Ali “Gas” remains belligerent and provocative.

In Puntland, the so-called war committee members never mince their words either. Nor do they utter war rhetoric without the tacit approval of their boss, Puntland’s top leader, Dr. Ali. On August 19, 2018, the committee beats the war drums again, “U.N and IGAD visited Puntland twice to mediate Somaliland and Puntland, but we reject their efforts and the war will continue…I swear in the name of God, there will be a war…it is going to happen…Puntland people, get ready for war…”, states Puntland’s Interior Minister, Abdullahi Timma-Adde.

Evidently, the war committee members are none other than the government ministers and Member of the Parliament who should be held accountable for their tireless effort to instigate violence. Most of them, including Dr. Ali, have foreign passports and assets abroad. At a minimum, the International community should advocate for revoking their passports and freezing their assets if they opt-in waging violence against Somaliland.

But as Puntland ratchets up its threat to attack Somaliland security forces, Somaliland army commanders prepare for a deceive battle that will render the invading Puntland clan militias ineffective. If violence erupts in the region, the Somaliland army plans to set up a chokepoint at the highway between Puntland’s capital, Garowe, and its commercial city, Bosaso—splitting Puntland into two isolated regions. Additionally, Somaliland may place its heavy artillery within a striking distance of Garowe, targeting Puntland military bases on the outskirts of the city.

Furthermore, establishing a new administration called the Nugaal State of Somalia (NSS), independent from Puntland, where Garowe will be its new capital, lingers in the minds of the Somaliland army commanders. The NSS enclave may be controlled and administered by the Sool clan clans who are part of Puntland and Somaliland. It is worth noting that the disfranchised Dhulbhante clans are happy with neither Somaliland nor Puntland. Historically, they lost much of the Nugaal region to the Puntlandersten clans of Puntland. Currently, a battle between the Sool clan and the Puntlandersten clans rages in Nugaal region. Reclaiming the NSS region and the Nugaal Valley onshore blocks may be the begging of the end for Puntland.

So, why Puntland leaders’ are eager to wage a suicidal war? Of course, they are not naïve. But their strategy can backfire, as they continue miscalculating. Doubtless, they face two formidable challenges. For one thing, they have mobilized enormous resources for the war cause from the local clans and the Diaspora community. And now they are accused of emblazing the funds and their daily war bluffs—huffing and hissing from a distance—are no longer taken seriously. For another, Puntland’s top leader desperately wants to cling on to power and delay the upcoming Puntland’s presidential elections, in January 2019. As the election approaches, Dr. Ali gears up for war, rather than campaign for his re-election. And as Puntland’s Interior Minister, Abdullahi Timma-Adde echoed, violence will flare up again. Predictably, two to three months before the election date, Dr. Ali will strike Somaliland. Therefore, by the ballot or the bullet, he is determined to remain in power.

Meanwhile, the Somali regime in Mogadishu seems to engage a different war with Somaliland. Qatari and Iranian money at its disposal, Somalia is obsessed with undermining the agreement between Somaliland and UAE to develop port Berbera and build a military base in there, as well. After ranting about the port deal for several months, Mogadishu realizes that it can hardly do anything, legally, politically or militarily, to hinder the project much less nullify it. Alternatively, Somalia uses Puntland as the stepping-stone to embroil Somaliland into a full-scale war to at least impede the UAE’s initiatives. In contrast, Somaliland considers Puntland as the obnoxious child of Somalia. And just as the German shepherd dogs ignore Chihuahuas’ bluffs, Somaliland rarely dignifies an answer with Puntland’s raves. For Somalia, however, its nauseating child is now a useful tool.

Moreover, the Iranians are funneling huge resources to Mogadishu through Qatar to stop the construction of the military base in Berbera, where the UAE plans to launch military strikes against the pro-Iranian Houthi rebels in Yemen. As Somalia disbands UAE’s military training program, Iran and Qatar fill the vacuum, ramping up their support for Mogadishu. Already, weapons stolen from the UAE training facility in Somalia remain awash in Puntland. Without a doubt, the looted military hardware will be used against Somaliland security forces—a problem, inadvertently, created by the UAE. Now, if the UAE fails to shore up support for Somaliland, Hargeisa may succumb to the overwhelming Qatari and Iranian financial support pouring into Mogadishu, Houthi rebels’ threats against Berbera—and more dangerously, the large quantities of the UAE’s weapons reaching Puntland.

Similarly, the Houthi rebels, in their efforts to prevent the UAE’s building a military base in Berbera, are arming Puntland. Unabatedly, Puntland receives boatloads of weapons from Yemen. According to the British-based Conflict Armament Research (Car) group, “The “weapon pipeline” outlined by the report flows from Iran to a number of small transshipment ports in the semi-autonomous Puntland region of the Somali coast, on the tip of the Horn of Africa. The coastal region is largely ungoverned by Somali authorities, and a former Puntland ports minister told Reuters that last year 160 Iranian boats were reported illegally entering Somali waters.”

To make matters worse, recently Djibouti expels DP World from its territory and seizes the Doraleh container port from the DP World. Now, Djibouti is not only locked a legal battle with DP World, but it also opposes the port Berbera development. And to show that its willingness to undermine DP World and Somaliland, Djibouti now openly supplies weapons to Puntland. According to EEX Africa report, illegal weapons from Djibouti are now pouring into Puntland.

Somaliland is clearly overwhelmed as it faces Djibouti, Somalia, Puntland, Iran, Qatar, and Houthi rebels. And Somaliland officials grow worrisome about the UAE’s ability to train and equip Somaliland troops, as UAE may be accused of violating the U.N’s arms embargo against Somaliland and Somalia. Nonetheless, a war may be unavoidable. As I have outlined in my article entitled, “Somaliland: U.N., IGAD and International Community Failed to Restrain Puntland” if Mogadishu and Garowe push Hargeisa to the limit, Somaliland may react swiftly and decisively. Hargeisa’ patience with Mogadishu and Garowe is wearing too thin. And Puntland’s obsession with replacing colonial borders with clan-based boundaries remains the root-cause of the current conflict—a looming disaster, indeed. Therefore, the International community should quit kowtowing to the bellicose Puntland leader. Dr. Ali should be reported to the FBI and the U.S. Homeland Security because he is a U.S. citizen fomenting violence towards Somaliland.

Likewise, UAE and Ethiopia, 51% and 19% of the port investment owners, should warn Dr. Ali against sabotaging their interests. Furthermore, the newly appointed Somaliland ambassador to the United States, Dr. Bashir Goth should formally request that the FBI and the U.S. Homeland Security scrutinize Dr. Ali’s clandestine operation against Somaliland and dissuade him using Tukaraq as a smokescreen.

Using Puntland as an attack dog, Somalia remains on a collision course with Somaliland. And the longer that Somalia keeps Somaliland as a hostage, derailing the divorce process between the two nations, the likelihood of a military showdown between the two nations. Indisputably, Somalia, Djibouti, Qatar, Iran and the Houthi rebels all oppose the UAE efforts to expand port Berbera and the construction of the military base for different reasons. And attacking Somaliland directly will attract the International community’s attention, so using Puntland as the launch pad is more logical. Incontrovertibly, the imminent war between Somaliland and Puntland is not about controlling the destitute village of Tukaraq, as it is about waging a proxy war and having access to the lucrative port Berbera.

Dalmar Kaahin

dalmar_k@yahoo.com

Qaran News

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

The pirate enclave is done after 8 months all we hear is threats last time they carried out attack was  during the Ramadan and they got  a decent karbaash from the Somaliland defense forces.They now reduced to threats and empty hanjabaado. Iyo dibugurasho xeeldagaal the pirate strategy.

Somaliland can easily annex gsrowe and shell It to the stone age but. We dont believe we can demolish something which does not belong to us. Somaliland is purely interested in only yoocade. Where the border ends what garowe does or wants is not interesting for Somaliland.  One cant change  134 year old legtimate borders of Africa it's just not feasible.and the alternatives the pirate bring forward is tribal borders which will never fly in Africa.

 

 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

I think mr mental tablet just wants a way out but he wants an extension. For  his pirate administration in the garowe clan enclave.  Mr  cheese can't help him even if he wanted to mr cheese I dont know what he is doing but he is more involved in the tragic conflict poor fella really wants  to reconcile the neur and dinka ethnic groups of south Sudan. After the hamasien dictator  didn't show up in the Igad meeting in Addis Ababa . Fresh Prince abiye suggested   igad should focus on south Sudan. And the political docile passive neofaqashman from cabuudwaaq wanted a bit of achievement in a symbolic way of course . Madaxweyne farmaaajo oo heshiisiyey qawmiyadaha dinkaa iyo neur  while USA special forces are raiding former Somali president  house I tell you the man is either hostage or Just waits for the  qataris to write him his cheque. And than he wants to get the hell out of  villa amisom. He has not visited once his own gedo region while  The Kenyans are shooting ducks there in garboharay.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

I think Oodweyne your once again  right on the money. The koonfurians in  particular the looters aka the demolition crew of karaan yaaqshid and boondhere.  I Think they are a bit clever by half. Because they play the silent Italian maffia game. They are the numbers in Mogadishu  but politically they have always been useless whether it  was their cali naafto or sheikh dalxiis or that culusow fellow. They are just rural folks who I call they are Bantu  by culture and  the pirate enclave leader the likes of the late tuute  muuse and colonel yey played  The divide and rule on them  where as wacbuudhan or kacbuudhan supported the pirates and  the other subclans supported the jihadists. And The Christian  dictator  of asmara was playing Negus negashi.  I think qolooyinkaas calool dheregte maleh all they know is drag  dead and muufo. Afay caday muufay dubta lagamagatto. Waxaasay qaadijireen.

Wa iska ummad aan salaad lugu lahayn.

 

The cheeseman has no clan allies in what I call konfuristan  absolutely not his economic adivisers are the likes of xoosh kibray  who enriched him self in the Hey days of Mr afbakhaare  iyo hebel massale cashuurdhaaf zero import tax for that man. I think he is lost poltically  And he can't rely on the habargangster clan of baraxlay and guriceel. Because they want his seat cost what cost by any means necessary even if they have to place c4 explosives  on all angles of villa amisom. They don't value human life  ha dhakhleyso wa halki reer burco eh.

 

[gooni]

Waxaad isu jiibinaysaan waa sheeko marfash mudanayaal

Farmaajo ciidan iyo hub puntland uma dirrin.

See nin ciiddan iyo hub ay ka heleen xirriirka ugu jareen?

Puntland waa hooyadii federaalka dhashay waxayna balan qaaday inay ilaaliso xuduud qabiileedkeeda

Dadkay is hayaan waa snm qayb ka mida oo kusoo duushay dhulkii beeshoodu deganayd

Ayagaa laga rabaa inay is fur furaan beel ahaan iyo dal ahaan ma yara.

Aqoontayda snm ma xamili karto dhimasho badan oo kasoo gaarta xuduud qabiileed dhulkooda ka durugsan

Dhaqan ahaan waxay u dhaw yihiin ingiriiska oo qofkii ka dhinta ma iloobaan abid.

Waxay u sameeyaan xasuus ama taalo darbiyeed, sawirkiisa lagu dhajiyo ayagoo siiya magac aad u dheer oo wakhti qaata akhrintiisu

Sida mujaahid chief caaqil oo magaciisa lagusii xiro.

Puntland dagaal ma jecla waa dad nabadeed shacab ahaan, balse siyaasiyoontoodu intaan ka aqaan waxay xiraan koronto danabkeedu aad badanyahay hadhaw markii dabku is qabsadana afka furta.

Waxaan kula talin lahaa labadoodaba waa dad isku dhaw dhaqan ahaan gaar ahaan kuwa xeebaha dega, oo walaala ah inaysan dagaalin. 

Ama ay dagaalaan oo soo afjaraan mashruucaan tuko-raq xafiiska looga furay oo booskii abaaraha looga hadli lahaa naga galay.

[Suldaanka]

1 hour ago, gooni said:

Puntland dagaal ma jecla waa dad nabadeed shacab ahaan, balse siyaasiyoontoodu intaan ka aqaan waxay xiraan koronto danabkeedu aad badanyahay hadhaw markii dabku is qabsadana afka furta.

 

Bisha Oktober ee 3 asbuuc ka hadheen, Ciidanka Qaranka Somaliland caruurtii ugu dhalatay  Laascaanood waxay noqon doonaan 11 sano jir. Masha allah, waa gaashaan qaad... Duriyadda 10 jir ayu ku doob dilaacsadaan oo geela foof geeyaa. 

 

 

[gooni]

Suldaan

Ninka dambe waa talented wuuna ka soo bixi karaa shaqooyin dhalin yarada toosin kara

Waqooyiga sida lagu yaqaan waa dad dhaqanka iyo deeqdaba ku fiican shan jirkoodu ma lumo.

Puntland iyo snm waa inay nabad ku wada noolaadaan si loo helo jiil qurux badan, beenta iyo bitibitidana ka daayaan caalamka

Tuko raqda laysku laynayo waa tuulo ay joogaan dad xoolo dhaqata ah oo tooshkoodu baterigu kasii dhamaanayo, waana dad soomaali ah haddaad weydiiso xuduudka snm iyo puntland xagee maraa? ma fahmayaan, balse haddii la waydiiyo yaad is xigtaan dhalshada qabiilka labada maamul way kuu sheegi wayna garanayaan,wayna ku saxan yihiin markaad fiiriso dastuurka soomaalida oo dhan ku dhaqanto.

Sidaa daraadeed wiilka gabilay ka yimid oo ku dhintay tuko raq wuxuu iila muuqdaa marxuum khaldan.